Thorns FC: Trifecta

We’re finally at the end of the three-match week that ended more than a week ago – sorry, gang, but I’m running as fast as I can – with the Sunday May 3rd match in Evanston, Illinois, between the then-14th-place Chicago Red Stars, which we learnt from the prediction game preview were “…simply put, shit, 2-0-5, 6pts, 4GF, 13GA, the Red Stars’ GD of -9 is the worst in the league.”

Well, that before the Thorns rolled into town.

I won’t be surprising anyone or giving away any spoilers to just sum this one up as “better team beats a worse one”. 0-2, with Thorns bookend goals from Olivia Moultrie about a quarter-hour in and Reilyn Turner almost at the stroke of second half full time.

But.

Last time we looked at the Thorns we wrestled with a puzzling underwhelming/overwhelming win over San Diego here and some odd and a bit troubling indicators it revealed

I want to talk a bit more about this match, not so much for the match itself but what some more disturbing things it showed us about this Portland squad that we’d see again, and regret seeing, in the Louisville away match last Friday.

Let’s begin here:

Outside the scoreline, does this look like “top of the table versus third-from-the-bottom”? Portland is, again, outscoring it’s xG, but Chicago is getting damn near a goal’s worth of looks.

Here’s Chris Henderson with another set of this data:

Henderson is a bit more generous to Portland’s xG, but look at the post-shot xG numbers; that’s how well the two clubs actually put boot or head to the ball.

No, Chicago wasn’t playing well. But if you removed the two big Portland chances (the first big riser is a Pietra Tordin miss in the 11th minute, the second the Moultrie goal) the Thorns weren’t really tearing things up, either.

The only other “big chance” I saw was a piece of pure individual brilliance from Sophia Smith; in the third minute of first-half injury time Wilson pressured a turnover in Chicago’s half, dribbled to the top of their 18-yard box, and hammered a vicious swerving shot that Alyssa Naeher had to go full stretch to turn around her post. Dunno why it doesn’t show up for Henderson other than perhaps distance from goal; xG kinda comes down hard on that.

But that was it; the Turner goal was 1) a pretty cross-field pass from Moultrie that Turner ran down and that 2) Naeher, 0v1, alone and desperate, tried to tackle away from Turner in the open field. Once Naeher had missed the tackle Turner had a bit of a tight angle to finish, but other than that?

Lights out.

So how did Portland take three from Evanston but not from Louisville?

We’ll get to Louisville later this week, but against Chicago…

1) Portland came out pressing viciously, and successfully and that helped produce some dangerous attacks in the first half. We’ll talk numbers in a bit, but the Red Stars were pinned in their own end for an overwhelmingly large part of the first half and as often as not were turned over by the pressure.

Here’s a nice series that shows how this was working, beginning with a Chicago goal kick in the 27th minute:

Naeher played the ball flat out wide to Michelle Alozie. Tordin was all up in Alozie’s grille like black on a pair of low quarters. Note Moultrie jogging into the near corner of the 18 to cover the return pass.

Alozie tried going inside to Aaliyah Farmer, who was instantly closed down by Jessie Fleming.

Note that Tordin was hanging with Alozie and Cassandra Bogere was marking Julia Grosso. Moultrie was cutting off Sam Staab and Wilson was making a nuisance of herself in case Farmer tried to drop back to Naeher or Kathy Hendrich.

Instead Farmer tried to turn and dribble back towards her own byline, only to find…

…Moultrie tight on her, so quickly that Farmer couldn’t shield the ball away and got stripped of possession at the top corner of her own 18.

The obvious play from there is Moultrie to Wilson (y’think..?) for goal #2. But props to Hendrich; she, in turn, closed Wilson down and tackled the ball away.

The Thorns did this to Chicago all through the first half. Here’s Sofascore’s “momentum” plot that kind of shows 1) how throttled the Red Stars were, and 2) how that also produced a relentlessly predatory Portland attack coming from those pressed turnovers and advanced field positions.

After halftime, though?

Umm…not so good.

Suddenly the press lifted (again, we’ll discuss this in the press section below) and the Portland attack died away to nothing. Had Chicago any sort of genuine soccer ability this might have not ended well, because…

2) Chicago was able to find a surprisingly large amount of space for a surprisingly large number of times in the Thorns defensive midfield and backline. I’ll show you one of the earliest, this in the 15th minute, where Alozie sprinted down the Thorns right-hand touchline and spotted Nadia Gomes inside a ring of black Portland shirts…

…but with, as you can see, none of those black shirt actually, y’know, touch-tight on her.

Instead Gomes had lots of time and space to crank off a nasty low drive that Macca Arnold had to get down quickly to parry wide.

Here’s my match notes for significant Chicago possessions after that:

22′ – Emma Egizii has time to loft a high drive that forces Arnold to make a good hop to turn over the bar.
28-30′ – Lots of Chicago possession around the Portland 18; forced three corner kicks, nothing directly on goal, tho. Well, Chicago…
46′ – Alozie slips three Portland defenders, plays 1-2 with Jordyn Huitema (beating Marie Muller), crosses to Egizii (Vignola ballwatching); Egizii’s shot blocked for another corner.
46-51′ – More Chicago possession around Portland’s 18, ending with a long Chicago throw-in that Turner flicks on to Alozie’s head, but Alozie heads right at Arnold.
59-61′ – Still more Chicago; two more corner kicks, Huitema shot blocked off the second.
71′ – Long pass straight through Portland midfield to Alozie. Her cross is cleared but recycled until finally Huitema turns over.

Don’t forget…this is Chicago. They’re a fucking tire fire. This isn’t a serious or a decent soccer team.

So remember those two keys – high press + aggressive attack, Portland rolling. Poor or no press + defensive holes, Portland under the cosh – because we’re damn sure going to be talking about them when we talk about Louisville.

Short Passes

Pretty much a wash; Portland completed 75% of 355 passes, Chicago 79% of 370.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei with the passing. First, Portland:

So yes on Wilson. She’s looking confident and in form. That’s an opposing defender’s nightmare.

But the whole “generated six good chances and only finished one”?

The Thorns have been riding their high-GF-relative-to-xG differential through the whole early season. But, like any kind of “odds”, those sorts of skews tend to even out over time, and, well…

Here’s Chicago:

Just as San Diego dropped another three points after their match here, Chicago proceeded to get asswhipped by Kansas City this past Sunday.

Like I said; they’re just that bad.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32

Well, shit. Right back in the dumper. Chicago wasn’t much better; 24 turnovers. The big difference was similar to the “momentum” shift we saw above; both Chicago and Portland turned over 14 times before the break. Afterwards Chicago tightened up, losing only 10, while Portland got sloppy, coughing up 18 times.

Several Thorns were careless with the ball. Arnold gave away four turnovers, though half were from long goal kicks that landed on a black shirt but her midfielders couldn’t control. Mimi Alidou, Muller, and Tordin coughed up three each, Vignola two-and-a-half.

The worst was an Isabella Obaze pass that went directly to a blue-striped shirt to begin the 46th minute attack described above. Not something you want to repeat, Bella.

Press!

Eighth match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

As noted, Portland came out like the hounds of Hell; 48 presses, 32 wins (66.6%) including 16 ball-winning forced turnovers. Chicago’s 18 wins of 37 presses (47.3%) and 7 ball wins look, and were, meager by comparison.

After the break, though? Portland still pressed – 49 total – but the press triggers were off and the pressing itself poorly organized, clumsily delivered, and, unsurprisingly, less successful (19 wins, 38.7%, and only 6 ball wins).

Chicago was still not pressing as hard (31 presses) but 16 wins (51.6%) and the same number of forced Portland turnovers, six.

Match time	Stars presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-50′	38(18) (47.3%)	49(32) (66.6%)
45-93′	31(16) (51.6%)	49(19) (38.7%)
Match Total	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)

My thoughts:
1) What a difference a half makes!
2) Portland? My guess is that we’re seeing the cumulative effect of 270+ minutes of soccer in eight days, exacerbated by coming out so hard. By 45′ a lot of Thorns were gassed.
3) Chicago had been in a defensive crouch under the Portland cosh until suddenly…nothing!
4) So the pressing weight lifting (and the Thorns attack dwindling) meant as close to a “resurgence” as Chicago could get. Luckily for Portland they’re Chicago, so no harm done. Other opponents (coughRacingcough) might not be so merciful.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)

Corner Kicks

Five. Four long, one short. Four first half, one second

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
11′	Moultrie	Long	To the far edge of the scrum and cleared. Recycled and eventually runs to Tordin for what should really have been the opening goal.
23′	Moultrie	Short	To Fleming, who shot well over.
32′	Moultrie	Long	Into the scrum again, cleared out and recycled. Vignola shoots way over.
45+3′	Moultrie	Long	Into the mob, cleared out and lost.
81′	Moultrie	Long	Poor service that bent over the byline.

As mentioned, Tordin really should have scored. Two other shots, both well off frame, and looked increasingly futile as the match wore on and tired legs wore out.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (45′ – +10/-2) Worked her ass off, as usual, and was a persistent menace, also as usual. Got the benefit of the better half as much as she could without scoring, but as noted, came damn close. Need rest, so not really a bad move to pull her for…

Turner (45′ – +7/-3) Which still leaves us with the whole “what role does each of these forwards play?” question, since pretty much all of the “starting” forwards (Wilson, Turner, Tordin) are center-forwards that, in Vilahamn’s usual 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, has room for only one.

Wilson, being Wilson, can sorta make “winger” work though losing quite a bit of what makes her so dangerous. Neither Turner nor Tordin quite have the skillsets to do that.

I was hoping that our Swedish chef could cook up something, but at the moment it looks like “sacrifice a live chicken to Hanks/Weaver’s PT schedule” is the on the menu.

In case I didn’t emphasize this enough; yes, the second goal was a pretty “easy” play overall, but the finish was long and at a pretty tight angle, so well done, Turner, to pot that one.

Alidou (78′ – +3/-0 : +2/-2 : +5/-2) Unfortunately here we are looking at 1) the thin depth behind the healthy starting forwards, because 2) Just-Kinda-There Alidou showed up for this one. The woman does hustle, but her general skills are just average, so the drop in attacking quality when Good Alidou doesn’t turn up, well, at least she hustles, which you can’t really say for…

Castellanos (12′ – +2/-0) And this was a “better” Deyna Castellanos than we will see in Louisville, so…sigh.

Moultrie (+7/-2 : +6\-3 : +13/-5) Nicely potted goal and a really clever long-pass assist, along with all her usual strengths.

Tordin (84′ – +12/-3 : +1/-1 : +13/-4) I wish I’d been able to get a good screenshot of this, but I lovedlovedloved what Tordin did on the Moultrie goal.

The stream missed the beginning of the sequence (at least showing a replay of the previous Wilson run that was ruled offside rather than the usual goofy bullshit like showing a random coach looking confused) so I’m not sure how Wilson got a throw-in down near Chicago’s goal. But she threw to Tordin, who dollied in close and blasted a shot that Naeher could only parry right back to her.

Tordin turned with the ball and – I’m still convinced this was a deliberate move – lifted her left leg, dropping her toe and bluffing the shot.

Naeher had to react, sprawling low to stop Tordin’s “shot”…which was, instead, the ball rolling right to Moultrie who, with Naeher scrambling off her feet, had an open net and the matchwinner.

If that play could pay the utility bill I’d marry it. Goddamn that was pretty!

McKenzie (6′ – +3/-0) Saw out the win, so, fine.

Fleming (+3/-1 : +4/-1 : +7/-2) Both the Thorns DMs looked pretty leg-heavy in Evanston, Fleming the better-looking of the two. Still pressed and defended decently, but neither were able to contribute much going forward, especially after the half. This was Chicago, so no blood no foul. But…

Bogere (+7/-5 : +1/-2 : +8/-7) See above.

Vignola (+9/-3 : +3/-3 : +12/-6) All the defenders faded badly – as in really, scarily badly – in the second half. At least Vignola had an active, aggressive first half including some fine forward passes.

Hiatt (+4/-2 : +3/-3 : +7/-6) Note to Sam Hiatt: important self-esteem tip.

Don’t let the rook with one start and six appearances make you look like she owns your whole ass:

That’s filthy and if one of ours had done it to one of theirs I’d have laughed my ass off.

Obaze (+3/-2 : +4/-1 : +7/-3) One point in the backline’s favor is that they stayed fairly well organized. That meant that almost nobody…(snort!sorry, Sam! Sorry..!)…pulled a bunch of minuses by getting skinned as individuals. A point against that was the sheer volume of possession in our defensive third that Chicago had to play with and that a better team would (and then did) punish us for.

Muller (61′ – +3/-4 : +0/-2 : +3/-5) Except Maria Muller, who had a genuinely poor match and was deservedly yeeted at the hour for…

Reyes (29′ – +5/-0) Much better.

Arnold (+2/-0 : +1/-1 : +3/-1) Huge saves in the 15th and 27th minutes.

We had a fairly long discussion in the San Diego comment section regarding Arnold’s strengths and weaknesses. Among the former are her shot-stopping and control of her penalty area, which are excellent and have resulted in her leading the league in goals-prevented.

Her distribution is not. Her throws are usually decent, and her play with the ball at her feet is adequate (or, at least, no worse than the rest of the Thorns’ issues with playing out of the back in general), but her long goal kicks aren’t really very good.

Okay, now…if we could sign a keeper who can do all those things – shot-stopping, take balls out of the air, positioning, distribution – hell, I’d take her in a heartbeat.

Like all players, though, you often have to take some “meh” with the good. And if I have to take a “meh”, I’ll be okay with taking mediocre goal kick placement if I can get a player who’s very good with the rest of the goalkeeper skillset.

And in Thorns history, I should add, we’ve never had a keeper who did have all of those skills to that high level. (Britt Eckerstrom was closest, I think). But it’s truly a rare combination, and there aren’t many keepers that have a “A+” rating in every aspect of the position. If we can buy one? Ohfuckyes. Do it.

Coach Vilahamn: Well.

A win, on the road. So, good. Fine. But.

With some worrying signs. Serious, dangerous fall-off after halftime. Lack of coherent attack after halftime. Space in the back much of the match that a better opponent would have punished us for.

Tired legs? Sure! That’s where a genuinely clever manager has a roster that can manage that fatigue, has tactics to cope with the roster rotation, has a plan to find the points.

And Vilahamn did…in Chicago.

But I think we saw some cracks in the foundation there that we’ll see again when we come back here to talk about Louisville away.