Thorns FC: Rough Road

Last weekend was the closing match of the second of the Thorns’ three-game-weeks in the front half of this season, meaning of Portland’s twelve matches half have been played within three to four days of each other.

That’s brutal, and both the quality of play and the woeful 3-1 result in Kansas City showed the effects of that mileage.

As we first noted in Louisville, when this Thorns squad doesn’t (or can’t) successfully press high and hard their opponents have way too much time and space to pick apart…

…breakdowns in Portland’s defense through finding (or making) space, often from what looks like a lack of collective understanding – hardly shocking when short rest forces heavy rotation – or individual(s) having bad days, or caught in runs of bad form.

Here’s a perfect example, beginning with a Macca Arnold 41st minute goal kick. Portland was up a goal at that point (on a 14th minute piece of Sophia Wilson hero-ball) but Kansas City had been hammering away at the Thorns’ goal for the twenty-plus minutes since then.

One of the Current midfielders outjumped Cassandra Bogere and headed the ball back at Portland’s goal; Croix Bethune latched onto it and tried a speculative lob into the Thorns’ 18.

Sam Hiatt headed out again, but short and directly to Ally Sentnor, who began the attack by running directly at the center of the Portland defense.

You can see the lack of width from both sides; this is going straight up the gut.

Sentnor has one teammate in front of her – Temwa Chawinga – and another to her right, but the Thorns midfield is tracking back. Notice the two highlighted players pursuing the play; Marie Muller for Portland marking Lo’eau LaBonta for Kansas City.

Chawinga was, as she was all match, the Danger Woman, so Reina Reyes is eyeing her like a Black Block footsoldier at a Proud Boy and an armed one, at that. Hiatt had moved out to front up Sentnor, while Carolyn Calzada was taking Michelle Cooper.

So far everything looked like Portland had this covered.

Sentor arrived inside the penalty arc, with Hiatt to her front. There’s Chawinga just beyond the penalty spot, but Reyes was ball-side/goal-side on her. Instead, Sentnor looked to LaBonta arriving, to slide a square pass out to try and see if LaBonta could find something.

What looked like the best option for Muller seemed to be “mark tight on LaBonta and try and force a hurried shot or hasty pass”.

Hiatt had Sentnor, and between them Jessie Fleming (I think) and Calzada had Cooper sandwiched. Chawinga was still open to the Kansas City left, but Reyes was still keeping an eye to step to her, or in a pinch, might have just stepped up to put Chawinga offside.

A squad that had practiced this sort of scramble-back as a unit long familiar with each other would likely have worked out roles and understood coverages and positioning to do this comfortably.

But this wasn’t “a familiar unit”, remember. This was the mix-n-match, swap-a-centerback, fullwingback, rotated squad, and one that had shown some unfortunate failures in defensive organization before this.

So instead of staying touch-tight on LaBonta, Muller plowed straight ahead into empty space about halfway between the top of the box and the spot, and…

…the mistake let LaBonta settle Sentnor’s pass, tee the ball up, and…

…then use Reyes’ late lunge to screen Arnold and pot the equalizer.

Brutal punishment for a ragged Thorns squad chasing the game?

No.

That was the Chawinga go-ahead goal at the hour, or the Chawinga-to-Haley-Hopkins dagger in second half injury time.

But Chawinga is a game-changer, and her return to the Current XI made a huge difference between this one compared to the earlier Thorns win here, largely because Chris Armas had a plan to use her raw speed, positional nous, and fierce power effectively.

We’ll talk more about this, but the Thorns are still struggling to find that plan around Sophia Wilson. She, too, is a game changer, but even that sort of talent needs some organization and planning around her, and – at least as of last weekend – that wasn’t there.

This was just a ragged, tired, poorly-trained-together Thorns squad being outplayed by a sparked-by-Chawinga’s-return Current outfit.

Plus Portland just ran out of gas at the sharp end. Here’s Sofascore’s “attacking momentum” plot:

Woof.

Can you say “thrashed about futilely after the hour mark”, boys and girls?

Here’s Chris Henderson’s xG race plot:

That’s pretty ugly. Go up early, then get outrun in a long, sluggish, hopeless grind. “A stern chase is a long chase”, as the old sailing navy saying goes. Believe it or not, the xG plot is kinder to Portland than the “post-shot xG’ numbers:

Wilson’s xG just make the point that for Portland right now it’s “Wilson first, the rest nowhere”.

Add that to tired legs and tired minds and bodies, some lingering roster and tactical issues, and you get…well, what we got.

Short Passes

Practically identical to Bay FC here: Kansas City with slightly more possession (52-48%), both with 76% passing accuracy, Kansas City attempting 391 passes to Portland’s 365. Cat’s game.

Carlisle-sensei has been late with the passing; if it isn’t posted by Friday (tomorrow) morning I’m going to do without. Here’s Sofascore’s “player position” plots, instead.

First, before the substitutions:

Notice anything about Portland’s front?.

Pretty narrow, isn’t it? Well, when you shove a bunch of center-forwards into the attack, they’re gonna center-forward. Another thing; the supposed double pivot…what’s going on with Fleming (21), Muller (23), and Bogere (6)? Fleming, the notional #6, is well forward of Muller, the notional right wide-attacking midfielder, and both are forward of Bogere, who looks more like a traditional lone-#6. This is sort of more like a 4-2-2-2 or 4-1-3-2. I think.

Anyway, here’s what happened late in the match:

I’m not really sure what the fuck’s happening here. Kansas City appears to have had two players sent off, while Portland is…I have no idea what the fuck that is.

It’s obviously a “push up, push up, we’re chasing..!” set, but who’s doing what where? Moultrie (13) came on for Bogere, so an AM for a DM, sure. Mallie McKenzie (29) is in the Reilyn Turner (66) “winger” spot. But Hiatt should still be in back with Calzada (4) and she’s disappeared. Muller (23) should be shifted back to her regular LB spot, but she’s up there overlapping Jayden Perry (24) – not unrealistic, since the whole “push up” thing.

Anyway, it looks like a mess, and it kind of was. (And you’re not helping, Sofascore.)

There’s “chasing” and “flailing” and what the Thorns were doing looks s lot more like the latter than the former.

Update 5/29 p.m.: Carlisle-sensei finally posted, and I wanted to add the passing diagrams for how much better they show the opposing sides positions. Here’s Portland:

Now Kansas City:

Notice the positions of the respective front lines? Yep. Pretty much what we said. Plus the whole “Thorns gotta whole shitload of center-forwards” isn’t just something we talk about here.

Well…yeah. That’s kind of how we got here.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32
Louisville – Away (L)	25
Angel City – Home (D)	No data
Bay FC – Home (W)	33
Kansas City – Away (L)	29

Still careless, and in a match when the Thorns needed to pull together strings of passes and build up, so not ideal. Worse, when Portland was chasing harder – after the hour – their giveaways got worse, 17 in the second half to only 12 in the first. Kansas City, able to sit back, tightened up after the break; 14 before, only 8 afterwards.

Fleming was the Biggest Loser, turning over four times. Calzada coughed up three, and four players lost two each.

None led to any particular danger, although the same cannot be said for the possessions turned over by Kansas City pressing.

Press!

Eleventh match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Neither side looked like they were trying to come out pressing aggressively; Portland, in particular, seemed very slow to trigger an aggressive forechecking press, attempting only 15 in the first half, wining 9 (60%) and winning only three turnovers. Kansas City was the more front-footed; 19 presses, 13 wins (68%) and 8 takeaways.

In the second half Kansas City stepped up and put the boot on Portland’s neck; 33 presses, 16 wins (48.5%) and 7 takeaways. The Thorns staggered to three more presses than the first half (18) and 11 wins (61.1%) but only five takeaways.

One real difference was the height of the line of confrontation: Kansas City put in 28 of their 52 presses in Portland’s defensive third, winning 16 of those and gaining 7 ball wins. Portland? Only 7 of 34, and only two ball wins.

Match time	KCC presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-47′	19(13) (68%)	15(9) (60%)
45-96′	33(16) (48.5%)	18(11) (61.1%)
Match Total	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)

My thoughts:
1) I think that Armas used the press much more strategically (and effectively) than Vilahamn. He let his troops loaf a bit in the first half but sent them into Portland’s defensive third, hoping (and often succeeding) in breaking up Portland passing out of the back.
2) Then, when Chawinga put the Current ahead, he really sicc’ed the RedTeal hordes onto the Thorns and just kept them off-balance and flailing.
3) Vilahamn, OTOH, was (I suspect) nervous about fitness/fatigue and kept the press reined back, hoping for some Wilson magic and good defense. Well, he got the one – once – but not the rest, and then it was too little, too late.
4) After Bay FC I said “…we’re going to see that the short rest/soft lack-of-press is going to be an issue” and, yes, here we are.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)
Louisville Away (L)	101(70) (69.5%)	62(35) (56.4%)
Angel City Home (D)	No data	No data
Bay FC Home (W)	59(34) (57.6%)	59(37) (62.7%)
Kansas City Away (L)	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)

Corner Kicks

Holy shit: eight!. Seven long, one short; three in the first half, five in the second.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
38′	Fleming	Long	Sort of “short-long”; into the near side of the pack, cleared out to Vignola who, perhaps thinking of glory, put a boot through it that was blocked out for another corner.
39′	Fleming	Short	To Calzada up top. She passed to Vignola, who lofted a cross into the mixer that was easily cleared.
47′	Fleming	Long	Towards the back post, cleared out, recycled, twice but finally Lorena went up and collected.
61′	Fleming	Long	Onto Tordin’s head, but her decent header went wide left.
73′	Fleming	Long	To the nearside of the scrum and cleared away for a Thorns throw-in.
74′	Moultrie	Long	On Tordin’s head again, and her header blocked out. Recycled in to Muller, whose header was right at Lorena.
88′	Moultrie	Long	Into the pack again, cleared again, this time to Muller who blasted a shot into whatever is behind the south goal.

Several half-chances, but nothing really dangerous. I have to wonder again that, lacking a true “target”, the Thorns don’t seem to think that having a particular set play or plays for corners might help.

I keep thinking back to what was very obviously a training-ground gimmick, where Sam Coffey sliced a low, hard delivery onto Becky Sauerbrunn positioned just outside and in front of the near post to flick on; it damn near worked, and it seems like someone like Perry or Muller could do what ‘Brunn did…

Anyway, not really much return for all that hard work.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+11/-0 : +5/-3 +16/-3) The numbers tell the story; the only real scoring threat, Wilson ran and ran and ran unto she just ran herself out of ideas. It’s indicative that after halftime I recorded her with only one off-target shot (in the 66th minute).

All I could think of was Wilson as Madeline Kahn as Lili von Shtupp in Blazing Saddles:

“I’m tired,
Tired of playing the game
Ain’t it a crying shame
I’m so tired
Goddammit! I’m exhausted”

Turner (54′ – +2/-1 : +0/-1 : +2/-2) And one reason Wilson had to try and do it all? Because Turner couldn’t do much of anything…

McKenzie (36′ – +3/-1) …and all we had to replace her with was a galvanized defender. “Vanity, vanity, all is vanity…”

Tordin (+8/-3 : +8/-3 : +16/-6) Worked hard, and, as the xG numbers show, was the “best-non-Wilson-Thorns-forward”, which in this case is sort of damning with faint praise.

The underlying problem hasn’t changed: the Thorns attack as currently constituted, isn’t really an “attack” in the sense of “executing a coordinated and rehearsed plan which integrates disparate but complimentary skillsets into an effective unit”, but more like a swarm of individuals with similar, overlapping skillsets trying out ideas on each other (or on their own) to see if one of them works.

Turning the latter into the former is the manager’s and the assistants’ whole jobs.

Muller (+1/-4 : +2/-1 : +3/-5) I get that the whole “Muller as winger” thing was probably 1) born of desperation and, possibly, 2) inspired by her freakish golazo against San Diego, and that it’s continued because…well, I don’t know. The rationale for starting Muller at the wing in place of someone like Padelski seems increasingly threadbare as Muller’s performances become decreasingly effective (her PMRs have gone from +13/-2 against Bay FC to this one, and her second half against BFC was a meager +2/-0).

I get it; the roster isn’t deep. But this, well…if it’s stupid and it works, it’s not stupid. But if it doesn’t work, and it keeps not-working, well..?

Bogere (72′ – +5/-3 : +3/-3 : +8/-6) Another indicator of the squad’s mental and physical state is how so many of the players’ second half numbers plummet; not just the plus-minus difference but the gross numbers. That’s people just burning out, shutting down, drifting out of the match.

One thing that seemed to trouble Parsons’ squads, particularly when going against the track meet that was The Damned Courage, was the difference between the Thorns endurance and Carolina’s. The Damned had a fierce confidence in their ability to go harder and longer than their opponents because of the Carolina training drove so hard at “fitness”…and they often could and did.

Portland never seemed to adopt that “the more you sweat in training the less you bleed in battle” attitude. I wonder…

Moultrie (18′ – +3/-2) Olivia Moultrie has become a damn good player. She can, indeed, be a game-changer.

But not in the all-in, smash-and-grab style of a Wilson or Chawinga. In her usual role she builds, she solves, she creates, and all that takes time and teammates and patience and understanding.

In CPKC Stadium she was asked to change the game state – with her squad looking all in pieces, with her opponents confidently in charge – in just twenty minutes. That was a huge ask, and Moultrie is none the less for not being able to answer it.

Fleming (+2/-3 : +8/-2 : +10/-5) For long periods the only effective pressing Thorn in the match, surely in the second half, and had she had some help and support might have gone some way to improving the score if not the result. She didn’t, and couldn’t.

Vignola (45′ – +4/-2) and Alidou (45‘ – +4/-2) I think the idea was “screw the point, we’re gonna go for the road win so swap out a fullback for a forward at halftime” but when your best forward option is Mimi Alidou, well…

As always, I hate to write that. I think Alidou is trying hard. She’s not loafing or jakin’ it. But she simply lacks, whether it’s “lacks at her current development” or “lacks the potential to ever develop further”, the skills to impact the game unless through freakish luck. I’m sorry, for her, but I’m frustrated for her team and for us as fans; it’s making things tougher for all of us.

Hiatt (73‘ – +2/-8 : +2/-0 : +4/-8) No backline that ships three goals can be even passably claimed to have had a decent day. However, some Thorns had rougher days than others, and just as Reyes had a terrible, very bad, no good, awful day against Bay FC, last weekend it was Hiatt’s turn in the barrel. Poor passes, weak clearances, marking and positional errors…ouch, especially in the first half. Then when she’d pulled it together in the second, first she got yanked for…

Perry (17′ – +1/-2) …who didn’t really have an impact, and by the time she came on, anyway…

Calzada (+4/-2 : +2/-4 : +6/-6) …had gone completely to Hell. Beginning with woolgathering and then completely losing Bethune as LaBonta lofted a scary ball into space between the Thorns centerbacks and Arnold. Macca came out a bit tentatively, Bethune crashed the ball and Arnold in what could easily have been a really ugly injury-creating Shea-Groom-headhunting-style collision. It wasn’t, because Bethune wasn’t Groom-headhunting. But Arnold’s centerback left her utterly unprotected, and that was just the beginning.

Ball-watching as a long outlet pass found Hopkins to feed the Current attack. Dropped off way too far on the final Chawinga run at goal that opened up Hopkins (again!) for the finish. This was not a match young Calzada will wish to press between the pages of her diary like a faded flower from a sunny summer’s day.

Reyes (+2/-2 : +7/-4 : +9/-6) It’s unfortunate that almost the final image of the match was Reyes being run down, and then spun like a dreidel by Chawinga, who dropped her like unwanted baggage on the way to driving the stake through Reyes’ team’s hearts.

Reyes had played decently until then, and was certainly having a better afternoon than several of her backline teammates. But there’s that whole “one awshit cancels a thousand attagirls” thing again. So Reyes is going to have to shake off that moment, that match, and look to tomorrow’s for redemption.

Arnold (+1/-1 : +1/-2 : +2/-3) Despite the screen from Reyes on LaBonta’s goal, I thought Arnold’s dive was still a bit late, and soft. Her slow-ish move to the ball in the 53rd minute was arguably worse; had Bethune gone in a bit harder Arnold could have set herself up for a serious injury.

Given how many looks her field players had given Kansas City up to (and after) that point? That’s pretty harsh; the Thorns had ninety-nine problems at CPKC and Arnold’s were only one. Okay, maybe two.

Coach Vilahamn: Like the squad, this is one he won’t want to linger over. But he, and they, should.

This one was a pocket-sized summation of the things that tend to cost this team points. Scattershot, freelancing attack that’s way too often dependent on luck and hero-ball. Defensive issues ranging from pressing organization and coordinating defensive roles to individual skill questions.

A lot of those things are on coaching; the old “what do you do in training?” question still hangs in the air. But some of them are on the Front Office.

The General Manager and owners need to be asking themselves things like “why is out manager playing a fullback at right wing?” and “why are we substituting a defender for a forward when we’re chasing the game?”

If this squad wants to be on the top step in October, these are things that can be, and should be, addressed.

But I should also step back and note that the Thorns’ “problems” are First World Problems, “problems” that Chicago or Louisville or Boston would kill to have. Portland is second on the table, tied on points with the leaders Utah…

(and you have no fucking idea how weird it feels writing that. “Leaders”, “Utah”, two words I would never, ever, not in my wildest NWSL After Dark imaginings, have put together. And yet, here we, and they, are.)

…albeit Utah with a game in hand. If the season ended today I’m sure everyone in the RAJ office would be pretty damn chuffed.

So now we’ve got one more match to slog through and then everyone; FO, GM, coaches, players, have a long caesura to think about, and work on, and, hopefully, work out some solutions to all that.