About seven o’clock last Wednesday evening the San Diego Wave stepped across the Providence Park touchline on top of the NWSL table.
When they crossed back over it after the final whistle, they weren’t.
Portland was.
And still is.
Let’s say this first off; that’s fucking terrific. The club has been on a roll – undefeated in the past five – and looks as composed and confident as I’ve seen them since maybe late 2022.
Well played, Thorns.
Okay, now…that said, last Wednesday’s match was very, very peculiar.
For one thing, this:
For another, this:
For a third, this:
Those don’t look much like an Clash of the Titans to me, not like a rival on a roll crushing their league-leading opponents, not like an epic struggle that will live forever in the lore of the league.
Instead this thing looked like, well, like I described it in the prediction game post after the match:
“It was a very odd match,
San Diego, coming off a grind-it-out comeback win in Denver the preceding weekend, kinda had nothing in the first half, and Wave gaffer Jonas Eidevall yeeted their top scorer, Lia Godfrey, at the break (she looked gassed; no shots, and only about 15 touches in the first period).
Meanwhile Marie Muller had lofted a shoss that had flown over Leah Freeman’s head for the what-turned-out-to-be-the-matchwinner in the 10th minute, so San Diego had been chasing since then. Ineffectively.
Overall? That game felt like one that San Diego had lost as much as Portland had won.”
Now that I’ve watched it again, I think that Portland had more to do with the win than I’d thought; specifically we’ll talk about this when we get to the “pressing” section.
But this was still a very strange game.
I’ll have some more thoughts when we get to the breakdowns, but the hard, cold, fact is that wins are wins, points are points, and the Thorns now have more of both than anyone else in the league.
Short Passes
Goals change games, and Muller’s early tally meant that the Thorns could loll about forcing Eidevall’s gang to do all the work. They did; completing 82% of 526 passes to Portland’s languid 78% of 382.
All that passing dominance worked like a Play-Doh pizza crust.
Here’s Carlisle-sensei with the passing. First, Portland:
Oh fuck yes, sensei; I can’t agree more.
This whole “We’re gonna win the league!” feeling is deeply, unsettlingly weird. It’s like one of those Hong Kong kung-fu flicks where the drunken master staggers around kicking ass like a crazy monkey but with the jug in one hand and a cross-eyed expression. It shouldn’t work. How does it work? How the fuck do they do this?
I dunno, but fuck it; they are doing it, Let’s just ride this damn bull all the way down.
Here’s San Diego:
Worth noting that San Diego followed up this stinker by welcoming Bay FC to all the points in their house, so it looks like the magic is draining out of the Magic Pastel Kingdom.
I should note that for all that San Diego had nothing on the scoresheet, they didn’t have absolutely nothing.
Kenza Dali served a pretty sweet long ball up to Kimmi Ascanio who’d run straight off Jaden Perry’s shoulder in the 27th minute…
…but Ascanio tried swiping at the volley and shanked it grotesquely wide left.
Three minutes later Lumila stripped Perry on the edge of the 18 and, luckily, took the shot (that Jess Fleming blocked over the byline) rather than passing to a wide-open Dudinha…
…for the tap-in or we’d have really needed that Wilson goal instead of enjoying it for the pure joy it gave her.
Turnover and over.
Here’s how things are going;
| Opponent – Venue (Result) | Turnovers |
| Washington – Away (W) | 26 |
| Seattle – Home (W) | 11 |
| San Diego – Away (L) | 29 |
| Kansas City – Home (W) | 23 |
| North Carolina – Away (D) | 25 |
| Angel City – Away (W) | 22 |
| San Diego – Home (W) | 17 |
Finally. Outstanding, and it didn’t hurt that San Diego were as sloppy as a warm Dairy Queen soft cone on a hot day, losing 28. Both second halves were a bit better than the firsts; Portland’s hairballs going down from 9 to 8, the Wave from 17 to 11.
Olivia Moultrie was the Not-Very-Biggest Loser with three turnovers. Wilson coughed up two-and-a- half. That was pretty much it.
The only real horror was Bogere’s pass-directly-to-Dudinha in the 14th minute, but the Thorns DM scrambled back to cover and cleaned up her own mess, so that’s just fine.
Press!
Seventh match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.
Both clubs came out pressing. The Thorns won 29 of 49 (59.2%) in the first half to San Diego’s 23 of 40 (57.5%), with both clubs nicking 9 forced turnovers from successful presses. The second half was even closer; I recorded 31 presses for both clubs. Portland won 16 (51.6%) and 5 ball-wins, San Diego 22 (70.9%) with 14 takeaways.
I think the big difference was that San Diego was chasing, so the disruption caused by the high pressing and tight marking – and the Thorns marking and pressing is notably better that it was under Ken; more cohesive, more tightly layered, and more supportive – was more difficult for San Diego than Portland.
| Match time | Wave presses (wins)(%) | Thorns presses (wins)(%) |
| 0-46′ | 23(40) (57.5%) | 29(49) (59.2%) |
| 45-92′ | 22(31) (70.9%) | 16(31) (51.6%) |
| Match Total | 45(71) (63.3%) | 45(80) (56.2%) |
My thoughts:
1) So I still think that San Diego lost this match, but I think Portland’s pressing and defending had a lot more to do with that than I’d initially thought.
2) I’m seeing a pattern here. After LA away I said “Portland’s press was, like Portland, patient and consistent, keeping the Angels underfoot until the Thorns finally got a break, and then…boom.”
3) So yep. Same-same here.
Here’s the running tally:
| Match (Result) | Opponent Press (Success) | Thorns Press (Success) |
| Washington Away (W) | 40(27) (67.5%) | 69(41) (59.4%) |
| Seattle Home (W) | 61(30) (49.1%) | 35(20) (57.1%) |
| San Diego Away (L) | 33(22) (66.6%) | 88(40) (45.4%) |
| Kansas City Home (W) | 26(15) (57.6%) | 43(23) (53.4%) |
| North Carolina Away (D) | 35(22) (62.8%) | 56(26) (46.4%) |
| Angel City Away (W) | 52(37) (71.1%) | 61(32) (52.4%) |
| San Diego Home (W) | 45(71) (63.3%) | 45(80) (56.2%) |
Corner Kicks
Three. All long, two first half, one late
| Time | Taker | Short/Long? | Result |
| 23′ | Moultrie | Long | On a San Diego head and flicked right to Reyes! But Reyes’ shot was blocked back onto her own arm. |
| 46′ | Moultrie | Long | Into the scrum, cleared, but to Wilson; her shot was blocked. |
| 83′ | Moultrie | Long | Into the scrum again and cleared away again. |
Reyes had a decent half-chance thanks to a San Diego defender flick, but otherwise not really much.
Player Ratings and Comments
Wilson (+3/-5 : +5/-0 : +8/-5) I dunno what’s on the breakfast table in the Wilson house, but based on the way Mom Wilson was throwing her body at people in tutti-frutti shirts last week it must have been pretty fucking spicy. Damn, woman! You’re a forward! Forwards don’t do that sort of stuff!
But of course she’s Sophia Wilson so she does do that sort of stuff. Forechecking, shuttling, passing, scoring…everything is 100%, all the time. That’s how and why she is who she is.
That said, there’s times to heed warnings. That yellow card was coming, and the time to chill was before it came out. Of all things now that you’re rolling, having to sit because of card accumulation is not a thing you want.
Moultrie (+5/-2 : +8/-1 : +13/-3) Solid, workwomanlike match, all of her usual pluses; pressing, intercepting, passing, moving to space. Didn’t need to score (just as well, because she didn’t really come close) but did all the #10 things that make her useful.
Turner (59′ – +5/-0 : +1/-0 : +6/-0) Reilyn Turner looked gassed (from LA?) before halftime and was gassed by the hour, so Coach V made a good move to yank her for…
Alidou (31′ – +4/-0) Last Wednesday we had nothing but Good Alidou, so, brilliant! Still probably wouldn’t be my first pick off the bench, but I’m getting more and more comfortable with her work.
Tordin (76′ – +2/-1 : +7/-0 : +9/-1) Pietra Tordin is kind of this game’s poster child for the whole “How the fuck does this Thorns squad keep scoring all these goals?” thing. Of her nine pluses, four are for defensive actions. Go back and look at the xG numbers. There was nothing in Turner’s scoring pocket. Nothing. It’s utterly weird. It works. But it’s fucking weird.
Lyles (14′ – no rating)
Bogere (+9/-2 : +2/-0 : +11/-2) The double pivots, Fleming and Cassandra Bogere, were my Women of the Match. On an evening where the principal tools of victory were “fluky goals” they provided the big hammer of “grinding defending” that turned fluky into points. Helped that that Other Swedish Guy kept ramming his troops right up the gut, but if Bogere or Fleming had been jakin’ it? That might have worked. They weren’t, so it didn’t.
Fleming (+8/-2 : +5/-1 : +13/-3) See above.
Reyes (85′ – +4/-3 : +4-2 : +8/-5) The backline held but, as we saw in the screenshots above (which, I should add, don’t show the really scary moments in the second half, where Gabi Portilo 1) skinned the centerbacks – as Perry fell asleep and kept her onside and then blew the coverage on the recovery run – and forced Macca Arnold to come up huge in the 60th minute, then 2) fired from the top of the box and forced another diving save in the 70th minute.
Reyes’ moment was in a San Diego flurry around the 56th minute when she completely lost track of Ludmila. Luckily the Wave were still doing the whole “boat-water-miss” thing and couldn’t take advantage of that, either.
Vignola (5′ – +1/-0) Saw out the win, so, fine.
Obaze (+1/-0 : +2/-0 : +3/-0) With the DMs doing the hard work and San Diego misfiring on all cylinders the Thorns backline was kind of out of the picture much of the match other than keeping their shape and discipline. Which is not nothing! But it’s not how you rack up big PMR numbers. So.
Perry (+1/-0 : +4/-2 : +5/-2) See above.
Muller (+3/-0 : +6/-1 : +9/-1) Did you know Marie Muller could do that? I didn’t! That was a pretty goal even if it was meant to be a cross. Which I’m gonna say it wasn’t.
Plus had to work hard against Portilo in the second half and mostly did well. Hoch, hoch, Muller!
Arnold (+1/-0 : +2/-0 : +3/-0) Not hearing so much from the Arnold haters lately, are we, hmmm..?
Coach Vilahamn: As I said about ACFC away; I’m getting more comfortable with the guy’s coaching skills. As I said about this one, I’m not sure why. Is he the one orchestrating these weirdly-not-overwhelming-but-somehow-utterly-crushing-wins? How? What’s he got them doing in training that’s doing this?
I was willing to write off the Two-Goals-Up-Two-Players-Down Seattle win here as a freak, But how do you explain this one, then?
WTF!?
If this is what it takes to climb the top step, though?
What’s Swedish for “I’ll have more of that, please.”?
“You’re the top
You’re Mahatma Gandhi
You’re the top
You’re Napoleon Brandy
You’re the purple light
Of a summer night in Spain
You’re the National Gallery
You’re Garbo’s salary
You’re cellophane.”
“You’re sublime
You’re a turkey dinner
You’re the time of a Derby winner
I’m a toy balloon that’s fated soon to pop
But if, baby, I’m the bottom
You’re the top..!”
- The Thorns Prediction Game: MD 12: KCC v POR - May 22, 2026
- The Thorns Prediction Game: MD 11 POR v BFC - May 18, 2026
- The Thorns Prediction Game: MD 10 – POR v ACFC - May 15, 2026
The Thorns live on the edge with those soft passes on the back line. Just as Sophia Wilson did to the opponent when she intercepted the keeper’s distribution that can happen to us. Arnold has made some wonderful saves this year but she too lives on the edge. Her passes out are not crisp and she takes too long to gather the ball, make her decision, and execute it. With the amount of time she takes she would be better off picking it up and passing or punting.
One other thought. If the back line would improve, the Thorns have the players in the center and front with good ball handling skills. Why not play Tiki Taka? Barcelona has shown it to be the mnost effective style if you have the players with that much skill.
The NWSL isn’t really a possession league; the combination of PRO officiating and NCAA physicality means that if you try that Barca shit here you usually get pressed into turnovers and pinned back. The European leagues are usually less direct and less physical, so those little triangles work much more consistently there.
I don’t recall when I did this, but I did a deep dive into “goalkeeper distribution” several years ago and the results suggested that 1) keeper distribution is perhaps the least important/least valuable keeper skill, and 2) it’s the field players’ ability to control the keepers’ outlet passes that is far more critical to the overall successful forward progress from a goal kick/punt/throw-out. A handful of keepers are truly exceptional distributors (as in “gets an assist once or twice a season” good), a handful are truly awful (and Arnold isn’t one of those) but most are like Arnold; just kind of “meh”, and the degree of “meh-ness” is affected much more by the ability of the backs and midfielders to move to space quickly and string together passes out.
I’m totally with you on not understanding how we collected all the points from a three-game week and are four points ahead in the standings. We’re scoring more goals than we “deserve” – exhibit A is Marie Müller’s goal in this game – and giving up fewer. We HAVE had some strong defensive efforts, so credit to the players and coaches for that. (That’s *wonderful* to see after the Gale years.) But the number of scrambles in the box and great opportunities for the opposition attackers that all came to naught – exhibit A is Portilho’s chance here – feels out of line with what should be happening. I can’t shake the feeling that we’ll regress to the mean and look like a more ordinary team.
But in the meantime I’m loving the results! And I can’t wait for Weaver and Hanks to return. Hope we keep racking up the points while the luck is still with us, and that we create more “luck” through organized defending and skilled attacking.
Chris Henderson keeps stats on NWSL clubs’ xG vs GF and xGa vs GA, and his numbers there are interesting.
Portland xG – 11.26
Portland GF – 14
ODiff – 2.74 (best in the league; Angel City #2 at 2.24)
Portland xGa – 11.73 (which isn’t good – bottom half of the table)
Portland GA – 6
DDiff – 5.73 (best by a huge margin; closest is Bay FC at 3.59)
What this misses is the “post-shot xG”, which would help with separating the “Portland’s backline and keepers saved the team multiple goals” from “Portland’s opponents got into dangerous positions then shanked the shot”.
Note 1: FYI, I ran back through Henderson’s match xG plots, and within the range of error – if you add up the individual match xGa it comes to 11.13, not 11.73 – it looks like it’s our defending not our opponents’ ineptitude; the post-shot xGa adds up to 12.05, meaning their actual shots were better than the xG predicted.
Note 2: That PSxG is grossly distorted by one match; Henderson shows ACFC’s xG as 1.60, their PSxG as 3.10.
So the bottom line is that we exceeded our expected goals – meaning we got “lucky” on one end – and also exceeded our goals-against…and the PSxG suggests it was a combination of keeping and organization in back that made that happen…
Also, on Portilho’s golden chance, after Perry’s failure to track the runner, Müller made another awful defensive play, unsuccessfully diving in when instead she should have gotten ahead of Portilho to block her better. Hooray for Macca for coming to the rescue, but we really did get lucky on that one.
That was a game that seemed like a San Diego loss. But a good team can beat a better team at home. I am so glad that is the last time the Thorns will face San Diego in the regular season. Because the Wave are going to get better.
The Thorns will too. Listening to Vilahamn after the Chicago game he sees a lot of things that have to improve and of course some things will improve with young players getting better, more acquainted and eliminating fixable issues.
Thorns have Louisville and Angel City away and Bay and Utah at home coming up. The Thorns have the talent to win all four, but even an optimist like me finds that unlikely.
Yes, and I’m also glad that we faced the Spirit away before they got their act together. When we play them at home it’s going to be a real battle.
There is a tug-of-war between regressing to the mean and improving team play and individual skills. So far, the improving is out-tugging the regressing. We’ve been perhaps lucky in that regard, especially since we have had one the hardest schedules in the league. Brilliant timing; getting lucky against top opposition. Now we have four winnable games where we should not need as much luck. Which is good, because we likely won’t get it. The worm always turns.
I think that the squad IS making progress in playing more coherently and showing better understanding. The attack is still not completely put-together and the defending still derps at times…but I see some work in progress.
But the “lucky”/”timing” is absolutely right. We pounced on Washington when they sucked. Seattle? WTF!? San Diego here now looks like the middle of an epic loss-of-form from them AND luck.
I think we’ll see at the back end of the season if our improvement is enough to overcome the goes-around-comes-around shifts in luck and form…
John Lawes, I must respectfully disagree with you. “The NWSL isn’t really a possession league”? Every team and league plays for possession. A pro team seeks to play its game and use its strengths to offset the other teams strengths or exploit teir weakness, if that means they succeed by doing something different than the other teams in the league – good. Watch femmes Barcelona, Chelsea or Spanish women’s national team. With the advent of the women’s international team competition we are falling behind by resting on our laurels. Look at the results of the league champions competitions of the last few years. Fortunately Emma Hayes is preparing the US national team for this.
Surely you are not saying that a team does not benefit from having the ball more often than their opponent.; Are you stating that La Liga and the Premiere League do not have professional officials and are not physical when you state “the combination of PRO officiating and NCAA physicality means that if you try that Barca shit here you usually get pressed into turnovers and pinned back”? As far as your “deep dive”, yes, distribution is not as important as defending her sod, but is it not important? Yes a missed block can have the same result as a slow roll to the back line. Perhaps the goal from a mistake is more detrimental because of the emotions involved. Further you seem to imply that the player should move to the keeper to receive the outlet pass. That is true if the keeper cannot make the pass. Otherwise they should expect the ball at their feet and already be planning what they are going to do with it.
PTFC Dave you state that Marie Muller’s goal was luck. The German National consistently does overlapping runs. Now that she and Sophia Wilson are playing more together that run is being recognized and is benefitting the team. The bend in her shot was not luck, it was many years of practice and recognition of the opportunity, i.e., pitch awareness. And “another awful defensive play” ? We must be watching different games I think she has added a lot along with MA. They frequently start the attack and have to cover for the back line. Perhaps being a member of the German National team might give her some credence since she doesn’t have to explain the play to us.
Everybody that responded – I think you are disparaging their pride and hard work when you say we are winning by luck. Beating Seattle down two players took a mental attitude that did not surrender and teamwork. The old adage “you make your own luck” seems to me to be apropos
Possession is relative, so no, not “every team and league plays for possession.”
Surely you’ve seen that. “Possession without purpose”; lots of lateral passing and backpassing, just noodling around dinking the ball back and forth looking for that perfect triangle that unlocks the defense. I won’t disagree that when it works, it’s beautiful and way more fun to watch…but if the conditions don’t make it likely to work? Then you defend-and-counter, or go direct. There’s lots of other options than “playing for possession”. It’s a tactic. It can work…but it’s not the ONLY tactic and it doesn’t always work.
You mention the USWNT. Look at the three match series here against Japan’s Nadeshiko, perhaps one of the most gorgeous possession-based squads in international WoSo. What were the results? 2-1 USWNT, no? Yes, Hayes is improving the US women’s passing/possession game. Is it better than Japan’s yet? And somehow those Nadeshiko triangles don’t mean consistent success. Hmmm.
As for Arnold…is distribution utterly worthless? No, and I didn’t ever imply that. Compared to the other keeper skills like shot-stopping, positioning, control of the penalty area, though…if I had to choose, I’d prefer a keeper whose stronger at the core skills (and Arnold’s goals-prevented-per-90′, 0.72, is nearly a quarter-GA-per-game better than Abby Smith of Denver, who’s on an insane run of form this season) that putting the ball in play. She can’t be utterly inept, and Arnold isn’t, but if she’s no better than average there and well above-average at the other skillsets? I’m good with that.
Finally, there’s nothing disrespectful in noting that our first eight games have included a healthy dose of luck. Yes, the squad has to show up to make that luck happen! As noted here and elsewhere, the improvement this season in cohesion, understanding, and tactical nous over the Gale tenure is marked, and that all played into “making our own luck”, sure!
But we DID get fortunate in starting in D.C. when Washington was a hot mess. In Harvey playing a short-handed opponent in a way (narrow, formless, toothless in the final third) that magnified her own squad’s weaknesses and our strengths. That Godfrey was so gassed that she couldn’t go more than 45 minutes. That Ascanio and Portilo missed sitters or Ludmila chose poorly.
It’s okay to celebrate success while noting the part that sheer chance played in that success.
The season is long, and luck tends to even out over time. “Are we that good or did we get lucky?” will only be answered by October, which is why sports are so much fun! Hope we’ll enjoy the answer when we’re there!
I agree that Müller has generally been doing well on defense, and even more generally is a terrific player to have on the Thorns. But that one play was awful defending. Go look at it. And for sure her skill level means she makes good overlapping runs and crosses, and her goal was in part the result of a lifetime of practice. But it also had an xG of something like 0.02; since it went in, it’s practically the definition of “lucky” to me. Even she, in the postgame press conference, said she was “kind of surprised” by scoring the goal.
You will not score other than an own ball by the opponent without possession. Is there any team that would not prefer to have the ball? Possession without purpose is certainly not a strategy, it is a mistake. Is there any team that does not want to eliminate mistakes? I stand by my statement.
Lucky because of scheduling? Does the opponent get better because they played us? Can you really say that our victory would not have come later in the season? Haven’t we benefitted and improved because of the opposition?
You raise good points, but I am firmly convinced that luck is real in sports – there are lots of things that have to go your way, and you can’t control them all. Certainly there is a luck element in the scheduling – it’s a component that is totally out of the team’s control. Washington absolutely got better having played us and lost, as did Seattle (somewhat). We face them both again this year and I expect those to be really tough games. But we’re all happy to have those 6 points for meeting them when they weren’t their best.
And there was also the other kind of luck. Payton Linnehan missed an open-net sitter at the very end of stoppage time, or else we lose instead of draw North Carolina. From our perspective, that was pure good luck. Once she was in that position no Thorn could have stopped her from scoring. She stopped herself. And we gained two points. This stuff happens all the time in sports – you say “phew” and try to prevent it from happening again. But it would be delusional to not acknowledge that we “should have” lost yet didn’t. You cannot win the Shield with a plan that is based on their striker missing late sitters.