The Thorns Prediction Game: MD 30 – HOU v POR

On Decision Day the Thorns travel to Houston.

The Dash are out of the playoffs so have no fucks left to give and no reason to rest anyone. Portland needs to be careful about the possibility that a loss and Seattle win might (I think) flip the bottom two playoff positions and pit the Thorns against the Shield winner, whoever that might be.

Meanwhile, our punters were sort of all over the place about last Sunday’s 1-nil home win over the Damned Courage. Barcasiempre’s eternal optimism of the spotless mind finally paid off with the result, though no one predicted Muller as scorer or Arnold with the clean sheet or Muller as first yellow. Dave and Ken split the “fun” points. A late entry (Pmagnanifit) also got the result.

Here’s where we stand after Matchday 29:

How all this works:
Before the upcoming Thorns match add a comment to this post. As your first line, put your predicted result, for example 1-3 Thorns.

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:
Wilson (Fleming)
Reyes (Free kick)
Moultrie (Unassisted)
Rodman (PK)

Next, name the first yellow card recipient: Sophia Wilson
Then a red card. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.) Trinity Rodman for mimicking mooning the referee after getting an undeserved yellow.

Make your fun prediction,and give a “thumbs up” to anybody else’s prediction that tickles your fancy: “Ryan gets the start against her former club. She gets through 70 minutes without fouling her former teammates until she can’t take it anymore. She pushes over Perry, gives Muller a wedgie, gives Arnold a noogie, then flips off the Riveters and runs out of Providence Park, never to be seen again. The ref issues a red card, which she later contests, and loses.” (h/t to ABell4)

Scoring:
· Correct score: 5 points
· Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
· Each clean sheet: 2 points
· Each goal-scorer: 1 point
· Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
· Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
· Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
· A player with a red card: 1 point
· Most liked/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):
Comments must be posted before kickoff, but you can edit or amend an earlier prediction right up to the starting whistle.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. No crazy scores just to pad out your odds of getting goals and assists.

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you predict the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal, for example, you say Castellanos scores from a Moultrie assist and that is exactly what happens.

Be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = dead ball, not in run of play. FK includes olimpicos from corners. No entry means unassisted.

First yellow means just that: the player – the first player and only the first player – who receives a yellow. Not the first player on each team. If more than one player listed as “first yellow” all the punter’s predictions for that category will be voided.

Frankly, it’s difficult to predict this one, given the two clubs’ opposing directions.

As noted, there’s no particular reason for Houston to worry about anything other than ending the 2026 season on a positive note. Why rest anyone? After Sunday it’s vacation time.

That said, even at full strength Houston isn’t particularly scary. They’re not Chicago-bad, but they’re not very good, either. Their defending is fairly solid (42GA to our 41) but they don’t score much. Here’s what I wrote about them when they came here back in September:

“Houston has been very…Houston this season, which is to say “supremely blah”. 12th of 16, 29 points, 8-5-12, 31GF, 35GA.

The Orange don’t usually score a lot. They ran wild on Chicago (5-nil) back in August, and hung four on Louisville back in April, but most of their matches are 2-3, 2-1, or 1-0 kinds of scorelines. They also kind of score by committee; Kit Rader is their gun with 9 plus an assist. Kiki van Zanten has 5 and 1, Kate Faase has 4 (and 2), Maggie Graham and Lili Ullmark have 3 each, though Graham has 2 assists and Ullmark three.

In back Houston is likewise pretty meh. Not terrific; Denver’s 1-4 whipping back in May is an outlier, but as their record shows, they’ve lost a lot, and particularly down the stretch. Here’s their last five games (beginning right after the Chicago win):
8/23 – 1-nil loss at Bay FC
8/30 – 1-nil loss in Seattle
9/6 – 3-1 loss in Orlando
9/12 – 1-2 loss at home to Utah
9/20 – 1-2 win in Boston

What’s kind of interesting is that Houston may well be the least “can-y” of the tomato cans on what’s left of the Thorns’ schedule. The other non-Carolina opponents are Bay FC (13th) and Boston (14th), so over the next month or so we work our way slowly down the table until The Damned Courage show up near the end of October.”

As you probably know, we drew Houston here and BFC away, lost to Boston here, but then beat The Damned Courage to lock a playoff spot.

Since we saw them last Houston has gone 1-1-2; drew us here 1-1, lost at home twice (Washington 2-3, Orlando 1-2) and then beat Chicago on the road 1-3. Their scoresheet looks much the same, too; Rader still top, tho now with 10, van Zanten still second with 5 (but added another assist), Fasse still third as well (now 4 and 3) and Graham bagged a goal so now tied with Fasse up to 4 and 2.

Presumably Vilahamn might rest some starters, although it might not be a bad idea to get Sophia Wilson some minutes after her long suspension. I think the big factor will be table position; can Portland cling to 7th even if Seattle levels on points? If so, then resting a bunch of starters makes more sense that risking injuries or fatigue.

If not, well…

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John Lawes

Soccer-obsessive. Stats geek. Thorns supporter. Former Slide Rule Pass and Stumptown Footy Thorns beat writer. One of those people who's "often mistaken but never wrong"...

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