Thorns FC: Goals change games. LOTS of games.

Carlisle-sensei gets the last word on the improbable 1-nil home win over The Damned Courage last Sunday:

“We had an absolute thunderblast from Marie Müller that secured playoff spots for four (4!) teams. If we were gonna get one goal to drain most of the drama from Decision Day at least it was that one.”

Yep. Mmhm. Okay. I won’t argue that. That was one hell of a goal.

Which is good, because before that goal watching this one was kinda like an hour of…

…that.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. Some people (coughReilynTurnercough) did some soccery things, including getting a crack in the 5th minute (that Kailen Sheridan had to come out strong to block), running onto a long Marie Muller lob in the 13th minute (but without controlling the ball until the Carolina defenders closed her down), and then four minutes later collecting a tidy cross from a long Carolyn Calzada attacking run (but, again, holding the shot too long and giving the Damned time to get bodies in front to block it).

Then?

Well…kinda lots of foozling around from both sides.

Carolina didn’t have any ideas beyond “find Ashley Sanchez and hope she can score somehow” which might have worked had they had anyone helping her out, which they mostly didn’t, or if their direct play managed to stay onside, which it mostly didn’t, or the Thorns defense had been ignoring her enough to give her good looks, which they mostly didn’t.

Portland, meanwhile, didn’t have much of anything once Turner kind of ran out of gas around the half hour. Worked some corner kicks (nothing doing, which we’ll discuss). Caiya Hanks put in a couple of clever runs, but since the attack was mostly single spies the Damned defense battalions swarmed and disarmed them. The goal came out of what looked like just one more failed attack, with Turner’s shot blocked, but then – I’d call it “against the run of play” except there hadn’t been a whole lot of run of play for either team – Muller ran on to the rebound and stonked it past Sheridan.

For the final half hour it was just a matter of white-knuckling the match to the whistle, parking the bus again and denying Sanchez the equalizer.

Credit where it’s due; Coach Vilahamn clearly set his Thorns up to 1) isolate Sanchez, which they did, and 2) defend in depth and as a unit, which they also did.

Against Carolina, who’ve been scoring in batches, that seemed kinda scary to me, but, hey, it worked. Carolina had all of the ball, worked it around and around and did nothing (or next to nothing) with it, a brilliant display of “possession without purpose”.

Portland defended and (every so often) countered, but the other Thorns season-long issue that showed up again (failure to finish) meant that despite grinding out a decent-looking xG (1.15 by halftime, 2.01 by the final whistle) managed to put only five of their 13 shots on frame (2 misses, 6 blocks) and converted just the one. I’m gonna bet the xGOT or post-shot xG or whatever you call it was barely over 1.0.

But what a one that was.

So we’re in. Safely above the red line no matter what happens in the fever swamps of Houston this coming weekend.

Then we’re in the World of Playoff Soccer, where none of the old rules apply.

Short Passes

Here’s Sofascore’s “attacking momentum” plot:

What’s interesting is how well this reflects the way the match looked on the field. Portland with few attacks, spaced out in time, but with “big chances” when they came. The two tall green spikes in the first half are probably two of the three Turner chances discussed above. I’m guessing the one in the second half is the only real buildup the Thorns assembled after halftime, a 69th minute passing series that produced a Muller shot (blocked) that rebounded to Reyna Reyes for another shot (blocked) that looped back to Muller who shot right at Sheridan.

Going the other way? Carolina had a string of half-chances and almost-looks. Sanchez put the biscuit in the basket in the 6th minute (offside!). Ana Gomes had a run at goal in the 15th minute (offside). Sanchez took a crack four minutes later that Arnold did well to block. Ryan Williams rang the crossbar in the 42nd minute – that’s probably the tallest blue spike towards the end of the first half.

In the second half…Jesus wept. Talk about nail-biting. The Damned walked the ball all around the Thorns penalty area from the second half restart until the 56th minute. Ten. Fucking. Minutes. Of nonstop possession, passing, darting runs…and nothing. No shots, not even a sniff; the Thorns packed behind the ball and, for once, the bus was parked right in the way of Carolina getting anywhere.

Still, Carolina had a long time to work something, and only one goal stood between them and the road point (and, needless to say, reducing Portland to a need-to-win-on-Decision-Day point as well). And, well, they worked something truly dangerous, beginning in the 70th minute, when substitute forward Gianna Paul drove to the byline, rounding substitute fullback M.A. Vignola, and slotted a low cross into Evelyn Ijeh, who had only Calzada and the keeper to beat.

FWIW, the player to watch on this one is Paul, down in the lower right corner. See her giving Ijah the “Go! Go! C’mon, bestie, go turn and crank it!!” signals? Okay; keep your side-eye on Paul.

Had Ijah the sort of touch that, say, Pietra Tordin has, she could have spun backwards to clear Calzada and then set herself up for a good chance to finish past Arnold to equalize.

But. I don’t see Ijeh enough to know whether she has those kind of skills. I can say with confidence that she sure didn’t have them last Sunday. Because, instead, Ijeh continued her run to the far top corner of the six with Calzada staying in front of her, and cranked a shot that just banged harmlessly off Calzada:

Remember I told you how the best part was watching Paul down in the corner. Well…

…okay. That’s fucking awesome; we all know that feeling, right? WTF? Seriously? You really did that? Well…fuckadoo.

Anyway, both possession (63%-37%) and passing (86% of 575 passes to 81% of 343) were ridiculously lopsided for Carolina, but the shots and xG point right back to the purposelessness of The Damned’s possession.

Lots of the ball, no idea what to do with it if Sanchez hero-ball doesn’t work. Uncomfortably familiar feeling, if a pleasant surprise to see it working for us, instead of against.

Carlisle-sensei with the passing plots. Portland:

I’m gonna be contrary here. I like a lot of what Turner does, and it wouldn’t shock me to see her, indeed, “put it all together”. But until then, the bottom line for forwards is goals scored. Until she can do that consistently, well…let’s add that it’d help a lot if she, like every other fucking Thorns forward (are you reading this, Coach? I’ll repeat it in Swedish if it’d help…) had second – and third! – options to dish to or to take the defensive pressure off her.

But to live up to her promise Turner needs to start finishing these attacks. She does so many other things so well! I keep coming back again and again to the disconnect between the quantity of attacking quality this club has and the number of times we see those attackers all alone, freelancing and trying to create chances by themselves rather than as part of a team.

The Damned:

I’m not worried! Anything bad that happens to The Damned Courage makes me smile.

But…yeah. What worried me about this one (from when Turner flamed out at about the quarter-hour until Muller’s hour strike) was that Carolina is the most prolific scoring club in the league this season with the prospective single-season individual scoring record on the roster and…the Thorns didn’t score or, again, outside Turner’s efforts, really looked much like scoring.

But after a run or two Gomes disappeared, and Ijeh’s only real chance was the one we’ve looked at above. No Sanchez? That left Williams (two shots off-target – since the crossbar is officially not on frame) and Riley Jackson’s one off-target shot.

That ain’t gonna feed the bulldog. Lucky for us.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32
Louisville – Away (L)	25
Angel City – Home (D)	No data
Bay FC – Home (W)	33
Kansas City – Away (L)	29
Utah – Home (D)	23
Louisville – Home (W)	21
Seattle – Away (L)	33
Denver – Away (L)	33
Gotham – Home (D)	23
Utah – Away (L)	17
Boston – Away (W)	17
Orlando – Home (W)	24
Denver – Home (W)	19
Gotham – Away (D)	21
Washington – Home (L)	23
Chicago – Home (D)	18
Orlando – Away (W)	22
Houston – Home (D)	20
Boston – Home (L)	33
Bay FC – Away (D)	35
North Carolina – Home (w)	23

Not terrific, but…better. Especially since The Damned were coughing up 24 at the same time. Plus the Thorns tightened up as Carolina were chasing; 15 giveaways before the break (to Carolina’s 10) but only 8 afterwards to Carolina’s 14).

Fleming was, rather shockingly, the Biggest Loser with an appalling six-and-a-half turnovers. Perry and Calzada gave away four each, but no one else coughed up more than two. The other positive is that none were particularly dangerous.

Press!

Twenty-eighth match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

The press numbers reflect possession and style more than anything.

Neither side’s press was particularly effective. Portland pressed a shit-ton because that’s where the ball was – at Carolina’s feet – but was largely ineffective at it because the Thorns press is still a one-player-at-a-time/do-it-yourself kind of gimmick…

…and because of that is still painfully simple for a halfway-decent opponent to pass through, around…

…and out of.

Now this, on the other hand, is Carolina’s press. Notice how every red shirt is marked up almost touch tight?

Had Portland had any possession to speak of? Carolina’s press might have actually made some sort of impact. As it was the Damned were more a nuisance pressing than anything.

Match time	NCC presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-45+3′	32(16) (50%)	66(29) (43.9%)
45-90+3′	27(14) (51.8%)	29(13) (44.8%)
Match Total	59(30) (50.8%)	95(42) (44.2%)

My thoughts:
1) What I said above.
2) Hard to really generalize from this one, other than the usual observation that trying to figure out the Thorns tactics and doctrine is damn near impossible since, as the Soviet observers were supposed to have said about the U.S. Army, they don’t have any identifiable tactics or appear to follow any sort of consistent doctrine.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)
Louisville Away (L)	101(70) (69.5%)	62(35) (56.4%)
Angel City Home (D)	No data	No data
Bay FC Home (W)	59(34) (57.6%)	59(37) (62.7%)
Kansas City Away (L)	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)
Utah Home (D)	99(55) (55.5%)	60(31) (51.6%)
Louisville Home (W)	55(31) (56.3%)	28(13) (46.4%)
Seattle Away (L)	67(46) (68.6%)	66(35) (53.0%)
Denver Away (L)	46(24) (52.1%)	53(27) (50.9%)
Gotham Home (D)	60(32) (53.3%)	58(86) (67.4%)
Utah Away (L)	86(61) (70.9%)	70(38) (54.2%)
Boston Away (W)	84(55) (65.4%)	83(44) (53%)
Orlando Home (w)	94(57) (60.6%)	87(55 (63.2%)
Denver Home (W)	87(55) (63.2%)	60(32) (53.3%)
Gotham Away (D)	42(34) (80.9%)	90(49) (54.4%)
Washington Home (L)	43(30) (69.7%)	64(35) (54.6%)
Chicago Home (D)	42(27) (64.2%)	54(33) (61.1%)
Orlando Away (W)	38(29) (76.3%)	39(23) (58.9%)
Houston Home (D)	20(11) (55%)	43(23) (53.4%)
Boston Home (L)	36(20) (55.1%)	53(23) (43.3%)
BayFC Away (D)	42(25 (59.5%)	81(40) (49.4%)
North Carolina Home (W)	59(30) (50.8%)	95(42) (44.2%)

Corner Kicks

Five. Two in the first half, three in the second. One short, four long.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
29′	Muller	Long	Into the far edge of the scrum, and cleared.
33′	Muller	Long	Found Calzada at the back post edge of the scrum, but Calzada was dispossessed.
58′	Muller	Long	Calzada headed down but was called for a foul doing so.
86′	Muller	Long	Into the scrum. Hannah Betfort headed it down to Reyes; her blocked shot bounded out to Hanks, who shot well over.
90+2′	Muller	Short	…to Hanks in the near corner for some well-worked time-wasting.

No much, meaning more of same.

Player Ratings and Comments

Turner (+5/-1 : +2/-1 : +7/-2) Statistically Turner had the best Thorns chances of the match, which is fine. Didn’t finish any, which is not so much.

The bottom line is that Turner put in the work and helped her side get the result. We can discuss ways in which she might step up from there in the future, but last Sunday her ultimate task was to help her club secure the points and the playoffs, and she did, so good enough on the day.

Muller (+3/-1 : +2/-0 : +5/-1) Poster child for her squad in this match. Did just enough to get the win, which is either true genius or insanely lucky, but I’ll bet she’d take it either way. Ausgezeichnet!

Tordin (+1/-1 : +12/-1 : +13/-1) Exploded in the second half from near invisibility in the first; from skirmishing futilely at the fringes of the attack to becoming active and dangerous both going forward (seven of her second half pluses are for attacking play) and defending including pressing, intercepting passes, tackles and winning duels. Not sure who said what to whom at halftime, but who and whatever it woke Tordin the hell up, and well as…

Hanks (+3/-1 : +12/-2 : +15/-3) …who proceeded to do the same; attacked (seven of 12 second half pluses) and defended like a beast. With Carolina desperately needing a goal both forwards were essential to hanging on to the win, did, so well played.

Nijstad (+6/-1 : +6/-0 : +12/-1) Once again the double pivot seemed to hinge on one of the two pivots. This match it was Nina Nijstad carrying the defensive load; eight of her 12 pluses were for ball-winning presses or open-field duel wins.

Fleming (+3/-1 : +4/-2 : +7/-3) I’m not sure why these two are like this, but here we go again; Nijstad has a good match (9 “defensive contributions”, won 3 of 4 tackles, 2 interceptions, 3 clearances, 3 recoveries, won 6 of 12 ground duels and both aerial duels) and Fleming sort of sits back (3 defensive contributions, 0 tackles, 1 interception, 2 clearances, won only 2 of 5 ground duels and one in the air…though Fleming did recover 8 lost balls) and enjoys the ride.

Why are they like this? I don’t see anything on the pitch that jumps out at me, but their numbers always seem to be this way, lopsided one way or the other. It is a puzzlement.

Calzada (+7/-3 : +3/-1 : +10/-4) I can’t even imagine.

Coming off possibly her worst match as a Thorn, Coach Vilahamn handed Calzada the horrifying task of stopping the league’s Golden Boot as the starting right fullback.

To her credit, Calzada did just that. Didn’t put a foot wrong, kept Sanchez quiet all match. Big night in a big match. Well done, damn well done.

Obaze (61′ – +3/-1 : +0/-0 : +3/-1) The key to this match defensively was coordination and understanding in the backline and DMs, and so Carolina had few opportunities to isolate and beat a Thorns back one-on-one. Both Obaze and…

Vignola (29′ – +6/-3) …got maximum benefit from this group effort as well as playing important parts in it. So, despite the low numbers, a good outing for the backline in general and the individual backs in particular.

Perry (+2/-0 : +3/-0 : +5/-0) Same here.

Reyes (+4/-0 : +3/-1 : +7/-1) And here.

Arnold (+3/-0 : +2/-0 : +5/-0) Not tested very often (thanks to her backs and DMs, mostly, but also by The Damned being utterly adrift for much of the match) but that just makes her big saves off Sanchez – 19th minute and 62nd minute blocks – look even bigger.

Coach Vilahamn: Got the dub and the playoffs without really changing my mind any regarding the club’s way forward.

Against The Damned playing for a one-goal/clean sheet win? I’m sorry, but unless he had some secret intel we didn’t that’s somewhere between “insanely optimistic” and “just nuts”.

But regardless of whether he was genius or madman, the gaffer’s plan worked to unlock Thorns Level One. His club will get an a first round playoff match.

Now – after a brief Texas vacation – the hard work really begins.