Thorns FC: Heap of Trouble

The Bats of Gotham FC are arriving the day after tomorrow, so I’m going to be brief about the 2-1 loss in Denver. My discussion is going to focus on tactics, but longtime friend-of-the-rivet kielbj has perhaps the most thoughtful and cogent summation of the state of the Thorns roster, both now and to come, I’ve read in a long time up over at Stumptown:

“I’ve been mostly a defender of Agoos’ slow and youthful build, but –and forget what the fans want– if he expects any kind of positive results in the short term, he needs Nijstad to hit and he needs to go replace Hiatt…(snip)…for long term success, Bogere and Nijstad will have to hit, and there needs to be action at CB. I’m willing to be patient given the amount of clean up needed from the last era, but I also think Agoos needs to more clearly outline his expectations for when he sees this roster competing so that fans feel like patience is justified and to give Vilahamn a chance to put his fingerprints on things a little more.”

Yep. 100%. Absolutely.

That said, it’s the coach’s tactical fingerprints on view in Centennial Stadium I’m a bit concerned about, specifically, why did the gaffer think it was important to pull his defenders into some sort of “central citadel” and yield the space between the outer edge of the 18-yard box and the touchlines to Denver?

We’ll talk about this, too, but here we are in the 6th minute, and we’re already seeing 1) Denver with an assload of possession – the numbers at the half were running 70-30 in favor of the home side, and 2) acres of wide space when they worked the ball around Portland’s defensive third, as the screenshot shows.

Was it concerns about the fragility of the centerbacks? Worries about vulnerability inside the box?

If so, the problems this defensive crouch created seem worse than whatever this narrowness was intended to solve. Letting Denver control the flanks all the way down to Portland’s byline allowed dangerous crosses (15 to Portland’s 10, and the Thorns are normally a heavy-crossing side) all match, and, eventually…

…the matchwinner, when substitute Natalie Means, untroubled by Portland pressure, lofted a shoss over Mackenzie Arnold’s outstretched arm.

The troubles were compounded by Vilahamn’s tactics at the other end of the pitch, a match-long exercise in hoof-and-hope Route One. Here’s my first half notes for Portland attacks;
4′ – Fleming to Vignola, cross in, cleared for corner.
5′ – Reyes throw to Wilson, 1-2 w Moultrie, shot, blocked, recycled, lost.
9′ – Hiatt long to Wilson, shot wide
11′ – Nice buildup culminating in Tordin run onto cross, heavy touch, Smith out to take.
21′ – Bogere long pass, Smith takes off Tordin’s foot.
22′ – Hiatt long pass to Wilson, Sonis foul, PK
36′ – Perry too long for Wilson.
38′ – Reyes to Moultrie, flick to running Wilson, Sonis great recovery run and tackle.
45+2′ – Moultrie long through ball, Wilson tackled for loss.
45+4′ – Fleming long ball to Wilson, nice backheel to Fleming, cross into Tordin but good Denver defense forces drop to Muller, shot right at Smith.

Ten attacks of any consequence. Buildup – that is, a passing series rather than a single long pass or through-ball – in the 11th and 49th minutes, but other than that; an attacking-third throw-in (5th minute), a touchline pass-and-run (4th minute) and six direct plays. Results? Five shots, two on goal, one PK goal.

Meanwhile, the quick loss of possession from this direct play and resulting Denver attacks produced 14 shots, six on goal, one (kind of sketchy – I still think Lindsey Horan Heaps was offside) goal for the Summit.

Here’s the bottom line:

Carlisle-sensei has taken to calling the recent Vilahamn efforts “Spursy” after the infamous tendency of Tottenham Hotspur to do lots of soccer-y things and get nothing out of them.

I think it’s simpler than that.

I think Vilahamn is having trouble getting his forwards to mesh as a group. I think he’s struggling to find a combination in midfield to re-create the Sam-Coffey-and-Hina-Sugita vertical connection from back to front. I think he’s having a hard time keeping his backline disciplined and working as a unit.

And I wonder – we’ll get there – whether he’s now got some goalkeeper concerns.

The bottom line, though?

Ooh. That doesn’t look good.

Short Passes

Sofascore’s “attacking momentum” plot:

That’s “Play Route One, give your opponent all the attack momentum” as depicted in a bar graph.

Carlisle’s passing plots, first Portland:

Yeah, the Spurs thing again. Me? I’d call this picture “Saturday Afternoon in Centennial, Colorado Without Wing Play”. You?

Denver:

Yeah, we’ll get to Macca in a moment, but here’s my opinion on the whole “offside on the first goal” thing:

Sure looks mighty offside-y to me. But that wasn’t the biggest issue with that goal.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32
Louisville – Away (L)	25
Angel City – Home (D)	No data
Bay FC – Home (W)	33
Kansas City – Away (L)	29
Utah – Home (D)	23
Louisville – Home (W)	21
Seattle – Away (L)	33
Denver – Away (L)	33

What a goddamn mess, especially since Denver was exceptionally tidy, losing six before halftime, 10 afterwards for only 16 unforced turnovers all game. Portland’s turnover problem was, as the Thorns in general were, better after the break, but “better” is a very relative term, going from 19 to 14.

The Biggest Loser competition in Denver was fierce; Jayden Perry and Marie Muller horked up five each, Reina Reyes lost four, three players (Bogere, Arnold, and Vignola lost three each).

The scariest was Cassandra Bogere’s 6th minute pass-to-Denver in her own 18, but luckily for Portland the Summit were offside on the ensuing play.

Press!

Fifteenth match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

I counted Portland pressing 53 times overall. About 29 in the first half, winning only 12 so about 41% of the time, with only 6 forced Denver turnovers. After the break – with Portland in a bit more possession – the Thorns pressed 24 times and won 15 (62.5%) and forced 7 turnovers.

Denver? Only 15 presses before halftime (9 wins, 60%) but 7 turnovers forced from Portland. After the break – again, with Portland in a bit more possession – Denver had more presses (31) but only 15 wins (48.4%) and only 4 forced turnovers, for a total of 46 presses all match.

Not much daylight between the sides there.

Match time	Summit presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-54′	15(9) (60%)	29(12) (41.3%)
45-96′	31(15) (48.4%)	24(15) (62.5%)
Match Total	46(24) (52.1%)	53(27) (50.9%)

My thoughts:
1) With Portland playing “Go-long!-oops-didn’t-work-oh-well-let’s-just-turn-it-over” as well as being sloppy in possession when they had possession Denver didn’t have to press much to be in control of the match.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)
Louisville Away (L)	101(70) (69.5%)	62(35) (56.4%)
Angel City Home (D)	No data	No data
Bay FC Home (W)	59(34) (57.6%)	59(37) (62.7%)
Kansas City Away (L)	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)
Utah Home (D)	99(55) (55.5%)	60(31) (51.6%)
Louisville Home (W)	55(31) (56.3%)	28(13) (46.4%)
Seattle Away (L)	67(46) (68.6%)	66(35) (53.0%)
Denver Away (L)	46(24) (52.1%)	53(27) (50.9%)

Corner Kicks

Two. One in each half, both long.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
5′	Moultrie	Long	Over to the far edge of the pack, and Denver cleared for a Portland throw-in.
70′	Moultrie	Long	I think Hiatt had the only effort at the service and her hop was too short. Denver cleared away the loose ball.

Nothing, and the paucity of corner chances just drive home how barren Portland’s attack was. Mile high but inch deep.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+9/-2 : +10/-4 : +19/-6) Simultaneously 1) a strong individual effort that included aggressive forechecking (four defensive pluses), passing (5 pluses), and both forcing and converting the PK, while 2) frustrating and ultimately barren as part of the squad’s attack. Often stranded or forced to freelance and do her frequently-tackled hero-ball; her shooting was not really good (other than the PK only four shots, two blocked, one on frame) and her passing/progression numbers were sparse:

Tough afternoon in the hot Colorado sun.

Tordin (68′ – +6/-0 : +0/-0 : +6/-0) Complete non-factor. It looked to me like Tordin was working to get position, but that Denver was marking her tight and her teammates just couldn’t find her when she wasn’t. When Tordin did get an opportunity, as in the 11th, 21st, and 49th minutes, either she played a poor first touch, or Abby Smith came out strong, or both.

Part of Wilson’s barren afternoon was her “wingers” – Tordin and Muller – failing to make space and draw defenders off her.

Lyles (22′ – +2/-2) I saw some good work from the rook, but I’m hesitant to say more from such short minutes and such a poor match overall. Let’s say “promising” and leave it at that.

Moultrie (+4/-2 : +6/-3 : +10/-5) Busted her ass all game; compare Wilson’s map to Moultrie’s:

And that doesn’t include presses/tackles, which I had as three of Moultrie’s ten pluses.

But that just reminds us again of of Schller’s famous dictum: Mit der Unausgereifttaktik kämpfen Göttinen selbst vergebens” – “Against poorly-designed tactics the Goddesses themselves fight in vain.”

Muller (68′ – +1/-3: +2/-1 : +3/-4) At least the CBS announcer didn’t call her “Moo-lar”.

But the fact that Muller was a starting “winger” just drives home the problems with this roster. Yes, the problems are driven largely by injuries, but they’re problems nonetheless. When – if? – we see the real wingers this season we might well see how much the problems stem from those absences and how much from the tactics in general, as kielbj discusses in his comment (seriously; it’s worth reading the whole thing).

Castellanos (22′ – no rating) (shrug emoji).

Bogere (77′ – +0/-3 : +5/-0 : +5/-3) Strange game.

Useless in the first half (or worse – that 6th minute turnover might well have been disaster), tough as nails in the second. What happened? Did Sarah Lowden woodshed her at halftime and threaten to take her out behind the trash enclosure?

Then came off with a minor knock. How minor we may find out Friday.

I’m not really sold on Bogere. She’s replacement level, which is usually fine, since everyone needs squad players. But with a midfield that needs more verticality and dexterity, well…right now she ain’t killing it as a starter. Work permit/visa permitting I think we might see our new signing in her spot on Friday.

Loboa (13′ – +4/-0) Kind of like Lyles; promising on short minutes but, like all reserves and spot-starters, hard to generalize from such a small sample size.

Fleming (+6/-0 : +6/-0 : +12/-0) While a decent match from our current midfield engine, it’s kind of revealing to compare her season to her former-Thorn-and-fellow-CWNT-regular Janine (Beckie) Sonis’ season with Denver. Not to rag on Fleming, but to note how a different system and different manager can result in massive swings in form from a player.

Fleming is busting her ass, like Wilson is and Moultrie is. When you have a bunch of talented people busting their asses, but the operation isn’t firing on all six? I think you have to look to the operation system rather than the individuals for the solution.

Vignola (+4/-3 : +3/-2 : +7/-5) Which is why, though I’m not pleased about her failure to close down Means and save the road point, I won’t rag hard on M.A., either. She, as well as Reyes and McKenzie, had clearly been instructed to tuck in tight, so if there had to be open space it would be outside the fullbacks and not between them and the centerbacks.

Honestly, I think the bigger ding was her tackle on Sonis in the 15th minute. After a loooong VAR the center referee concluded that the contact wasn’t penalty-worthy based on that the ball pinging off Sonis’ boot had brushed Vignola’s toe before M.A. clattered Sonis.

That’s pretty goddamn thin. I thought both penalties were pretty iffy, but if I’d have had the whistle I might have called this one, and that’s too damn close for any comfort.

Perry (+3/-5 : +3/-0 : +6/-5) After an amazing 2025 Perry has crashed hard in 2026. Her rawness and decision-making-shortcomings are increasingly obvious, largely, I think, because of other problems in the backline are forcing her into difficult situations.

Whatever the reasons, just another problem in a backline that has a battalion of them.

Hiatt (+4/-3 : +1/-2 : +5/-5) Her lack of pace was brutally exposed over the course of two minutes. At 50′ Olivia Thomas skinned her to get 1v0 on Arnold, but luckily for Portland fired her hard shot directly at Macca. Then at 52′ Thomas pantsed Hiatt again on a long run into the Thorns’ right corner.

I suspect the FO’s roster-build idea was that Hiatt would be this squad’s “Menges” or “Sauerbrunn”, the veteran leader of the backline, so her physical skillset wasn’t that crucial.

Since that hasn’t happened Hiatt’s skills are an issue, and, frankly, they’re not that great, which just drives home the point; this squad could really use a Menges- or Sauerbrunn- or Girma-grade centerback leader. Those are hard to find and expensive, and our roster has a pretty heavy top-load. I get it. Still…

Reyes (84′ – +1/-4 : +3/-0 : +4/-4) Struggled in the first half, settled down in the second, likely helped by the slightly-more-possession her club enjoyed that lightened up the relentless pressure she’d been under before the break. Not a great match, but that kind of went for her squad as a whole, not just Reyes. Like I said; Portland’s Denver problem was more about match management and tactics than individual failings.

McKenzie (6′ – no rating)

Arnold (+2/-3 : +1/-1 : +3/-4) Macca got me worrying about her form within a minute and fifteen seconds:

That’s a simple backpass from Hiatt that megged Arnold and almost went over the byline for a Denver corner kick.

In the 42nd minute Natasha Flint popped up a bloopy sort of shot that a sharp keeper would have fielded easily; instead Arnold boxed it around her post to concede a corner which, in turn, produced a mad flurry in her own six-yard box. Starting with Heaps heading the corner-kick service off her teammate Flint’s face; the rebound went right back to her so Heaps whacked it again, this time rebounding off a sprawling Arnold’s knee; the third attempt was cleared away.

Jesus wept.

Arnold’s culpability on the first concession was a bit arguable. Heaps was mugging about inside the six on the cross in such that she froze Arnold, who had to stay planted in case Heaps got a head to the Sonis delivery. But Arnold then failed to track the ball once it sailed over Heap’s noggin and the match was all square.

On the final concession Arnold cheated forward as Means dribbled towards her near post, giving Means the space between Arnold and the far post to huck an admittedly-terrific shoss in to win it.

This was Arnold’s third sub-par match in a row. I’m now officially concerned. Her form is a real issue. As I said after Seattle away; if I’m the goalie coach? I’d sit her for Messner. Something’s not right there.

Coach Vilahamn: So what were you thinking?

Why all the Route One? I get “defend-and-counter”, but your attack in Denver was barely a counter, more a “huck-it-up-and-see-what-happens” boot-ball fest, and the result was murder on the defense. This wasn’t even Wilson hero-ball; this was what in the artillery we’d call “H&I fire”; just lobbing random rounds out there and hoping the enemy would be foolish enough to stand around a crossroad intersection to get hit.

At the same time you scrunched your defenders inside their own 18 and let the Summit walk wide around your penalty area. Your defending, and now your goalkeeping, isn’t good enough to deal with the danger that resulted from that.

I’m not a hater on the guy, and given the circumstances of his hiring I’m willing to be patient. But this was the second match in a row where Vilahamn’s tactics looked poorly-suited to his own squad and, as the results suggest, his opponent. The coach needs to show he’s got some technical and tactical chops.

Friday would be a good time to find them.

Oh, and before we go:

What fresh hell is this?

Seriously?

“RAJ Sports has signed a wide-ranging sponsorship with AI-infused customer data platform Treasure AI that will include assets and technology deployments with the NWSL’s Portland Thorns and WNBA’s Portland Fire.”

Now there’s something we need; “customer-infused data”. What the actual fuck is that? That’s a soccer-brain genius idea right up there with Sepp Blatter’s infamous “the girls need to wear tight shorts” brainstorm.

Given the popularity of “A.I.” in the mind of the typical Portland soccer fan, who the hell thought this would be a good notion? Maybe the same people who wanted the front door surveillance camera people for the shirt front?

Oh, and here’s my favorite bit from the linked story:

“Torris pointed out that RAJ has found only 10% overlap between Thorns and Fire fans, creating an opportunity for Treasure to help “understand the nuanced differences between our fan bases and craft specific marketing messaging that’s going to hit those people at the right time with something they’re going to find value in.””

Gee. I dunno. Maybe it’s that basketball and soccer are very different sports? Different in play, different in style, different in background, different in atmosphere, different in all the qualities that draw fans to them?

It is a puzzlement.

I’ll bet that “Treasure AI” will be right on it, though, never fear.

Sheesh.