Jamie from H.R. – Talking ’bout forwards

(In case you forgot – or never saw – the original pair of these “midterm grades” posts in 2024, they’re here and here.

The idea then was not to hand out actual “grades” (we usually did that after the season so we could look at the squad and players full bodies of work) but to do one of those “annual review” kinds of things that, if you worked in corporatelandia, you probably enjoyed yourself; where your immediate supervisor and, not uncommonly, a suit from the C-Suites sat in the conference room with you and went through your records and summed up your “good stuff” and recommended “improvement plans” for the not-so-good-stuff.

One immense difference between today and 2024 is that two years ago we had a rich trove of player skillset data to look at to get a sense of how well the player (and their unit on the field) had been doing relative to the squad and with their peers across the NWSL. That data could be sorted, compared, and matched to players in other leagues or within the league.

Now? Almost nothing.

OPTA has cut off all the non-monetized platforms from the “advanced player data”. No more xG. No more “tackles attempted to tackles won”. We have some bare-bones stats – which we’ll use – but this round is going to have to be a lot more subjective and less data-based than the ones we did two years ago.

If you recall (or if you look back at the 2024 posts, we sorted the 2024 squad into six bins:
1 – The players who were “walking away with it” – had no real visible shortcomings – which was only two of the starters, Sam Coffey and Sophia Wilson-nee’-Smith.
2- Players who needed “just a bit more…something”; in 2024 this included Janine Beckie, Olivia Moultrie, Hina Sugita, Marie Muller, and Becky Sauerbrunn.
3 – Players with “some real issues”; Christine Sinclair, Morgan Weaver, and Jessie Fleming
4 – “Reclamation Projects”; Kelli Hubly, Shelby Hogan
5 – “Front of the Bench” reserves; Payton Linnehan, Reyna Reyes, Nicola PAyne, Isabella Obaze, and Meghan Klingenberg, and
6 – “Back Benchers”; Ana Dias, Izzy D’Aquila, Marisa Sheva, and Olivia Wade-Katoa.

The problem this season is that I don’t think the levels of performance are that clear-cut. Nobody looks to me to be “walking away”, and there’s a fair bit of overlap across “a bit more”, “decent squad player”, “real issues”, and “ohmifuckinggod”.

So, instead, we’re going to look at the squad by unit, starting with the forwards.

And, I should note, the good people over at Stumptown have done a “midterm grades” piece if you’re interested in seeing how their view of the squad to date compares with mine.

So, with that, here’s Jamie from H.R. again, talking with our new gaffer about the 2026 Thorns…)

Coach Vilahamn. So good to talk to you again, hi. I’m not sure if you remember me; Jamie Welkomn. I work for the RAJ organization in our player personnel division.

During the break we’ve been given by the men’s World Cup, up at H.R. we’ve been considering how this season has gone so far, and whether – or what – we might think of that could help with the “second half” of this season.

I’d like to talk with you over some of the thoughts we’ve had so far. Are you good with that?

Great, super, thanks. Let’s sit here, it’s got a bit of shade…you know, when I moved here back in 2023 the locals I met kept telling me how “oh, it never gets hot here!”, but, seriously? What the hell? It’s ninety-eight degrees! That’s “hot”, people! Sheesh.

Ah. That’s better.

I had this discussion with your predecessor back in 2024. That was a tough time for the Thorns; Mike Norris had just been let go, the club was struggling, and we hoped that Rob Gale could reverse that trend.

As you know all too well, he couldn’t. Or to be honest he didn’t do as well as he probably could and should have, which is why we’re here now.

So far you’ve had a pretty strong run; third overall, and several stretches at the top of the table. That’s terrific, and obviously we in the front office hope to continue that on into the playoffs all the way to the championship.

So I’d like to discuss our views of the current roster, as well as our ideas for moving forward into the playoffs, and see how it compares with yours.

Shall we start with…

The Forwards

Just to get this out there, we feel that there’s nobody on the roster who doesn’t need at least some tweaking to have a better second-half-of-2026, beginning with one of the superstars of 2024…

Sophia Wilson

STATS:
Matches played – 13
Matches started – 10
Minutes played – 932
Goals –5 (tied for first on the squad with Moultrie; tied for 4th in the league with three others (Moultrie, Matsukubo (Carolina), and Dudinha (San Diego), well behind Barbara Banda (11) in the league; Wilson’s non-penalty goals (4) are tied for sixth with ten other players)
Goals per 90 minutes – 0.49 (eighth in the league behind Moultrie (0.51), ahead of three at (0.48), far behind league leaders Temwa Chawinga (1.17) and Banda (0.99)
Shots – 49 (second in the league behind Banda (51)
Shots on target – 21 (second in the league behind Banda (28)
SOT per shot – 42.8% (out of the top ten, below Caroline Conti and Melanie Barcenas (55.6%)
Assists – 1 (below four players on the squad, including Moultrie and Pietra Tordin (4) and Mimi Alidou and Jayden Perry (2); roughly mid-table in the league)

So far this year she’s:
1) Played decently in her 2026 debut, about 70′ against Kansas City here (+14/-2), though Sofascore downrated her pretty hard (6.9 in an overall squad rating of 7.12 – only Bogere was lower (6.7)
2) First full match in the draw in Cary, and while playing well individually (+15/-4) struggled a bit with team play: “…just not quite back. Still lacking that perfect service, still not quite showing understanding with her teammates. Not a bad match given her long layoff, but still some ways from the Wilson we saw before 2025”.
3) Finally got her goal in a full 90 against ACFC after doing all her usual hard work tracking back (+18/-6)
4) Scored again against Angel City here though, like her squad, had trouble impacting the match (+8/-6); Sofascore knocked her again with a 6.9.
5) Played only the first half against Chicago away with all her usual hard work but no goal. I rated her decently (+10/-2) but Sofascore handed her the second-worst rating (6.5) in a squad they considered poor overall (6.97) without taking the third-match-in-a-week into consideration.
6) Played well (+14/-4) in a bad road loss in Louisville.
7) Went the full 90 in the scoreless draw against Angel City here in the match I missed, but Sofascore rated her poorly (6.5)
8) Had a huge game against Bay FC (+29/-6); no goal but an assist and all her usual hard work
9) Was the only real threat in the Louisville road loss (+16/-3) but ran out of gas after halftime; only one shot in the second half
10) Had another good match (+15/-5) in the home draw against Utah but “Worked her tail off (day ending in “y”), tried to do it all herself (see #1 – look at her passing circle on the plot above – deep, dark red), and ended up saving two points, anyway…”

The way we see it Wilson is a “good news/bad news” story so far this season.

The “good news” is that “she’s back”; active, ingenious, hard-working – on both sides of the ball – and dangerous. Opponents have to worry about her constantly. She is, as she has always been, the Thorns’ most deadly weapon.

The “bad”…well, maybe not so much “bad” as “not as good”…part is that she still has to struggle with not getting a lot of help and support. She’s having to play a lot of hero-ball, doing everything herself, and that’s tiring for her and makes life easier for her opponents, who can collapse on her and take her out of the game to the extent they can.

We’ll get there, but we see the…

Wilson Improvement Plan:

…as not so much “improving” Wilson herself as improving the support around her.

We’d really like to see some of her teammates stepping up to create options she can use effectively, as well as taking defensive pressure off her. We’ve discussed what we hope to see when our true wingers, Hanks and Weaver, return, along with hopefully expanding the repertoire of some of the other center-forwards.

What’s a bit worrying is how much work Wilson has to do herself, and what it looks like it’s doing to her game. Look at the shooting and scoring numbers. Here’s where she is compared to where Wilson was in 2024:

Metrics (at midseason)	2024	2026	Difference 2026-2024
Minutes played	879	932	106%
Goals	8	5	-37.5%
Shots	33	49	148%
Shots on target (% of shots)	21 (63.6%)	21 (42.8%)	No change (-20%)
Goals per SOT	0.38	0.24	-32.7%
Minutes played per goal	109.8	186.4	169%

That’s not a positive trend, as the folks in the business office would say. Wilson’s working harder, longer, and getting fewer results. If you look at her form and performance on the field she seems to be doing much of what she’s been doing for the seasons preceding 2025…but not getting the rewards she did then.

That’s got to be a real grind.

If you and the coaching staff can find ways for Wilson to create opportunities with the confidence that her teammates will finish them, for those teammates to pry open defenses for Wilson to score upon, for…well, I’m sure you have ideas on how to tie the forwards and attacking midfielders together, so I don’t know if we need to discuss this in more detail now. But that’d be great.

But do you see where we’re trying to go with this?

We’re definitely going to get back to her, since Wilson is still “The Franchise”, but for now let’s look at the “other” two Thorns forwards with real minutes, beginning with

Reilyn Turner

STATS:
Matches played – 12
Matches started – 10
Minutes played – 679
Goals –4 (third on the squad behind Wilson and Moultrie; tied for 8th in the league with ten others.
Goals per 90 minutes – 0.53 (seventh in the the league behind Jaedyn Shaw (0.54) and ahead of Moultrie (0.51) and Wilson (0.49).
Shots – 21 (Third on the squad behind Wilson and Moultrie, well below the top 10 in the league)
Shots on target – 7 (also third on the squad; mid-table in the league)
SOT per shot – 33.3% (Fourth of the four forwards with serious minutes, behind Mimi Alidou (42.9%) and somewhere well below the top of the league)
Assists – 0

So far this year Turner has:
1) Played a very meh hour in the season opening win in D.C. (+4/-2) as part of what we’ll discuss: “…the same problem that the Thorns forwards have had through the whole KenBall Era; there’s no real organization or plan or understanding going forward”. Turner missed a 56th minute sitter, too, prompting me to describe the Washington match as “…not her best work.”
2) Another hour against Seattle here. Much better (+11/-1) and a goal, tho missed another sitter.
3) Played decently enough in the road loss in San Diego (+9/-4) but “…was hampered by a “system” that doesn’t showcase buildup and team goals in favor of free-lancing hero-ball.”
4) Out early (at 25′ – +3/-1) with a knock in Cary.
5) Solid hour (+11/-2) in LA, and an almost hockey assist on the Moultrie offside almost-goal in the 29th minute.
6) Put in a poor hour (+6/-0) against San Diego…gassed from short rest after LA?
7) Took over from Wilson at the half, played well enough (+7/-3) and nicked a goal, but Chicago, so…
8) Her first half in Louisville was so barren (+8/-4) that she was yanked for Alidou at halftime.
9) Another toothlessly poor outing in Kansas City (+2/-2) that saw her yeeted before the hour (for a converted defender!).
10) Came on in the final half hour of the home draw against Utah and did nothing of note other than another close-range miss in second half injury time.

I know you and General Manager Agoos have talked about this. But my understanding is that Turner is part of something that’s been a problem, not just this season but pretty much as far back as 2024 when the starting wingers Morgan Weaver and Caiya Hanks went down with knee injuries; the club’s front line is unbalanced.

We have a total of eleven – eleven! – forwards on the roster. But…three are still out with long-term knee injuries; Weaver, Hanks, and Julie Dufour. Another, Alexa Spaanstra, is out on loan. Three more, who we’ll have to talk about at some point, haven’t managed to earn more than…I’m sorry, but “garbage minutes” was the term we used in Fresno; Deyna Castellanos, Maddie Padelski, and Valerin Loboa.

That leaves Wilson and three other forwards; Turner, and the other two we should really talk over; Pietra Tordin and Mimi Alidou.

All four are center-forwards, “number nines” by inclination and training.

You, and Coach Gale before you, have tried to figure out an attack that uses the strengths of, primarily, these four forwards…well, that’s difficult and, frankly, only sporadically successful, because all four tend to want to play in similar ways and do the same things. I know you’re still working on this, and I understand how frustrating it must be not to have all your internationals during this June layoff to keep working on it.

So a huge part of the…

Reilyn Turner Improvement Plan

…has got to be some version of either “figure out ways to help Turner – or Tordin, or Alidou – adjust their games to support Wilson at the number nine”, or “get Hanks and Weaver healthy by the first of July”.

Frankly, Coach, up in the RAJ offices we’d be fine with either one.

In Turner’s case, though, there’s a couple of other issues we think she and your coaches might want to consider.

Notice something that runs through her stats and her match logs? That “missed a sitter” thing? Yeah, that.

Turner needs to spend some time with a ball at her feet and the goal in view. Turner has terrific pace and a striker’s nose for goal. What she needs to develop, what she needs to work on, are a striker’s shooting boots and, well, her ballwork in general. Her shooting might improve if her overall touch was a big more deft.

I don’t want to be too Debbie Downer about Turner; she does have attacking skills. She also does a lot of hard work forechecking; tackling, pressing, and intercepting. Her “defensive” numbers…wait, here, I’ve got a graphic for her compared to perhaps the hardest-working forward, Sophia Wilson. See the lower left attribute point? There. See it?

That’s “defending”, and per this Sofascore assessment Turner is one of the best of our forwards tracking back and disrupting opposing attacks in their own half. That’s great, and suggests that Turner might be useful as a “holding a late lead” substitute.

As of now, though, Turner is one of the “other forwards” that have to hold down the winger jobs, and the better she – and they – can do that the stronger the club’s run into the playoffs will be.

Turner’s bookend is…

Pietra Tordin

STATS:
Matches played – 13
Matches started – 12
Minutes played – 669
Goals –3 (fourth on the squad behind Turner, Wilson and Moultrie; tied for 8th in the league with ten others.
Goals per 90 minutes – 0.28 (fifth on the squad behind Wilson (0.49), probably well down the league table).
Shots – 19 (Fourth on the squad behind Wilson, Moultrie, and Turner, below the top half in the league)
Shots on target – 5 (also fourth on the squad; somewhere below mid-table in the league)
SOT per shot – 26.3% (Fifth of the four forwards with serious minutes, behind Turner (33.3%) and, again, somewhere well below the top of the league)
Assists – 4 (Tied with four including Moultrie at the top of the league)

So far this year Tordin has:
1) Started strong (+10/-2), including an assist, in the season opening win in D.C. with the caveat about the lack-of-roles attacking problems noted in the Turner section above.
2) Had her biggest game (+12/-1) with a goal and assist in an hour against Seattle on Matchday 2.
3) Seen her hot start fade in the the road loss in San Diego (+5/-0); “…she both created, and finished, a gorgeous pure striker’s goal, a little treasure of pure implacable aggression. Other than that, though…the lack of organization and methodical buildup in the first half contribute a lot to Tordin’s low PMR outside the goal, while Wilson’s halftime entrance made her disappear in the second.”
4) Came on late to finish out the home win over Kansas City and to put on a ball-skill show (+8/-1) in about 20 minutes.
5) Played a good 70 minutes (+10/-1) in Cary, but, as I noted, “…about Vilahamn figuring out how to get the Thorns forwards all working together and building team goals. Well, he hasn’t and they aren’t. There’s moments, but only moments. Tordin in particular is suffering from Wilson sucking up the opportunities she used to get.”
6) Got her last goal of the season so far in a good 80 minutes (+12/-3) in LA.
7) Another 80 minutes, another good (+9/-1) outing, but weird numbers in an oddball win; lots of good defensive actions, nothing on goal.
8) Had yet another good 80-odd minutes (+13/-4) in Chicago, including a gorgeous piece of footwork to create Moultrie’s goal.
9) Struggled over an hour in Louisville (+7/-3), victim of Wilson Effect that gave her nothing in attack.
10) I missed the Angel City draw here, but Sofascore highlights what an odd match Tordin had. She’s shown as the ACM behind Wilson in a 4-2-3-1, but has only one shot (off-target) while hucking in an utterly insane 14 crosses. Still, her rating of 7.6 is nearly the highest of any Thorn for the match.
11) Went 86 minutes in the Bay FC win here, played well (+15/-1), “…doing well making things happen as a withdrawn forward/winger/AM.” though with only a single cross and two shots, neither on frame.
12) Played the full ninety in Kansas City and picked up her fourth assist (+16/-6) but couldn’t generate anything else – both her shots were off-target – in the road loss.
13) Put up a positive PMR (+8/-3) in the Utah draw here but “OPTA (records) her with two shots, neither on frame. For a forward that played 96+ minutes, that’s not okay.”

Tordin was surely one of the promising stories from 2025, and her hot start in 2026 certainly made her look like the potential Wilson-partner the Thorns have been looking for since the Weaver and Hanks injuries.

Instead, when Wilson returned to full match play Tordin’s game suffered similar problems that we saw with Turner; her skillset is just too much like Wilson’s, and instead of complimenting and adding to each other they sort of cross-cut the attack.

Which is frustrating because Tordin really is skilled, and we hoped that she would become part of a more effective front line. It’s doubly difficult because watching them both, we – and lots of others – see Tordin as the closest of the “other forwards” to Wilson’s skillset. Here’s those Sofascore “attribute” diagrams, see…

…the only real drop-off is in “tactical abilities”, which we interpret more as Sophia’s professional experience. Technical skills, creativity, forechecking, attacking nous…Tordin is right up there. Which is why our…

Pietra Tordin Improvement Plan

…focuses more on finding a way, or ways, to integrate her into a coordinated attack rather than on any of her individual skills. We’ve seen her with the ball at her feet; she’s slicker’n water off a cat’s ass. It’s finding ways to fit her into an attack that relies on Wilson at the nine that’s the trick.

Which leaves us with just one more forward who’s had more than trivial minutes this season,

Mimi Alidou

STATS:
Matches played – 12
Matches started – 6
Minutes played – 667
Goals –0
Shots – 7 (tied for sixth on the squad with Isabella Obaze)
Shots on target – 3 (Tied for fifth on the squad with Marie Muller and M.A. Vignola)
SOT per shot – 42.9% (Tied for second on the squad with Wilson and behind Moultrie (48%) of the players with more than a trivial number of shots)
Assists – 2 (Tied for third with Jayden Perry )

So far this year Alidou has:
1) Played nearly the full 90 in the opening day win in D.C. but with so little effect (+3/-4) that it brought her role on the squad into question; “I’m not sure what her value is. She doesn’t score. She doesn’t really set up scoring, either as part of buildup or with direct assists. She’s not strong, or fast, or has the soccer intelligence to show up as a force in attack or defense. She’s just kind of there.”
2) Started against Seattle here and played nearly 70 minutes with little impact (+3/-2).
3) Started again in San Diego, did so much nothing (+1/-3) that Vilahamn yanked her for Wilson at the half.
4) Played the full match – the last of her regular starts – in the Kansas City win here and did well (+10/-3): “…she had some genuinely nice touches in the second half and was an integral piece of the squad, both in attack and on defense.”
5) Came on earlier than she was (presumably) scheduled for an injured Turner in Cary and did pretty much nothing (+4/-1) in just over an hour. I was pretty chapped: “I still don’t really understand why the Canadian is first forward off the bench before Padelski. She’s not awful! But she’s not all that useful, either. Look at their numbers just for this one; Padelski’s works out to about +15/-9 for the hour shift.”
6) Went back to the bench, came on for the final half hour in LA and played decently enough (+8/-3) doing the grunt work of seeing out the road win.
7) Did the same again (+4/-0 over the final 30′) in the home win over Kansas City.
8) Got a start in Chicago and played indifferently (+5/-2) over 78 minutes.
9) Came in for Turner at the half in Louisville and played another iffy shift (+4/-1) that brutally exposed “…the problem of Alidou’s lack of shooting skills; Wilson…the ball to her left to a wide-open Alidou, (whose) “shot” was a ridiculous softball…”
10) Came on late (68′) in Angel City draw here. Sofascore pretty much slammed her, rating her 6.5, but in a match that the whole Thorns squad was rated poorly, so…
11) Played well (+13/-4) in a bit over an hour in the Bay FC win here but showed a troubling disconnection with Wilson, who refused to pass to her for an open shot – memory of the Louisville softball?
12) Was subbed in at the half (for Vignola) chasing the game in Kansas City and was unable to do much of anything (+4//2). “I think Alidou…simply lacks…the skills to impact the game unless through freakish luck. I’m sorry, for her, but I’m frustrated for her team and for us as fans; it’s making things tougher for all of us.”
13) On the bench unused for the Utah draw here.

Alidou is a frustrating player more because of who you’d expect her – Canadian international, has played almost a decade in Europe including as an outstanding striker for Benfica in both the Portuguese domestic and Champions League – to be compared to who she’s been here.

Look at her “attribute” plot compared to Sophia Wilson’s

That’s…troubling. Outside defending all her skillset numbers are below, and for attributes important to forwards such as “attacking” nous, technical and tactical skills far below, Wilson’s.

So a…

Mimi Alidou Improvement Plan

…is difficult to imagine. This isn’t some kid out of college. This is an experienced professional, an international. Her game is…what it is. I’m not sure the most brilliant coaching in soccer history can change her significantly now.

And…why? Why was Alidou so good in Portugal but is so indifferent here? I know the European leagues are supposed to be less physical and more technical, but…Portugal? We’ve both seen the Seleção Feminino Coach. They’re not the Nadeshiko. I find it hard to believe that Alidou’s game is off because Koroleva is letting her get beefed around by Emily Sonnett.

So…why? Why the hell is she like this? And, more to the point, if she is like this, what can we do with her?

I sure hope you have some inspiration, because thinking about her contract makes my head hurt.

The Reserves

Three, one of which we’ve seen a bit of last season, and more than the other two this year:

Deyna Castellanos

Still, only four matches, no starts, 119 minutes with the longest stretch a full half in San Diego where she was useless (+2/-3). Of her other three appearances only one – about 40 minutes in Louisville – was more than trivial minutes but no more effective (+3/-3) than San Diego. I read this on some crappy little fan blog but I think this sums up Castellanos pretty well at this point:

“The acquisition, and persistence, of Deyna Castellanos has become an increasingly fraught question hanging over this organization. Regardless of her potential or possible value, she’s currently a nullity. She doesn’t have a starting role, and she doesn’t really have the kind of late-match, game-changing skills that would make her a good substitute, either.”

Well.

That’s unfortunate. What can we do with her now? Coach, any ideas? Because I kinda got nothing.

The others are Maddie Padelski, who has played only 79 minutes in four matches; nothing longer than a half hour, and none at all since early may, and Valerin Loboa, who hasn’t played at all. I hope you’ve seen more of them in training, coach, because I can’t really say I know anything about them.

Summing Up

From where we’re looking the 2026 squad has some “good trouble” up front; Sophia Wilson is back with a shout, and two other forwards – Turner and Tordin – have shown outstanding individual skills, the sort that could be used to create a frighteningly dangerous attack.

The “bad trouble” is that hasn’t happened, and, as we discussed, probably because these three players have too much overlap; they all do a lot of the same center-forward things well, and don’t do the sort of things well that wingers or attacking midfielders provide center-forwards to use to help create goals, things like runs off the ball and up the sidelines, and providing service with through-balls and crosses.

Two of the remaining forwards – Castellanos and Alidou – seem to just lack those skills, period. What can you use them for, Coach? Or can you?

Two others – Loboa and Padelski – might have value, but we haven’t seen enough of them to have any clue one way or the other. Hopefully you’ve got some ideas.

I’ve got a meeting in a couple of minutes, but I want to return to this discussion afterwards, because the ownership has mentioned how they’d like to see some work on two of the squad’s units, the forwards we’ve just talked over, and…

Next: The Keepers and Backline.