Thorns FC: Whipped Like a Dog to Kennel

Well, that sure was something.

A Short History of Thorns Beatdowns

To put the loss in Utah in perspective, including last Sunday the Thorns have shipped more than four goals six times in club history.

Unsurprisingly all the others are losses, too.

The “closest” of these matches was the 5-4 loss in Kansas City on Opening Day 2024.

On the final day of the 2023 season Portland lost in Los Angeles 5-1.

The statistically worst beating in club history was the nil-6 whipping the Damned gave Mark Parsons’ club in Cary on September 11, 2019. (That season also saw the bizarre 2-1 win over Carolina here that saw all the goals scored by the visitors, which might have had something to do with the brutality of the reverse fixture. Paul Riley (spit!) was good at carrying a grudge.)

But perhaps the overall “worst” of these more-than-four-goal-hidings came in 2014, when Paul Riley (spit!) & Co. lost 5-nil twice; in Seattle, and to the then-second-biggest-rival Western New York here in June.

What sort of ties all these thumpings together is that in four of the earlier five – the two in 2014, 2023, and 2024 – the whippings were a sort of coalmine canary/handwriting on the wall warning for the then-managers of the club; Paul Riley (spit!) in 2014, Mike Norris in ’23 and ’24. The kind of whipping that suggested things inside the locker room were not going entirely well.

So…what the actual hell..?

…happened in Utah?

I won’t kid you; I was going to something write this, because watching the match live this is what I believed I was seeing:

“The “attack” was a thin gruel of Wilson hero-ball, direct play, a scattering of free-lancing, and failure to finish. Meaning that the ball turned over quickly as often as not; possession ran almost 60-40 to Utah (again).

Having lost possession, the Thorns press was brittle; individuals would press, but the team as a whole looked unfamiliar with each other, so the press was all-too-easily evaded or passed through. The Thorns midfield was barely a speedbump for Utah in transition.

So when the Thorns backline first saw Utah emerging from midfield, what they saw was a swarm of Sisterwives running at them while they – having been pushed up as is Vilahamn’s wont – had to scramble backwards towards their own goal. Usually losing what cohesion and discipline they themselves had. Almost all of the Utah goals included some individual – and often a combination of several individual – breakdowns in marking or anticipation.

Then, even if the Utah attack didn’t convert or the Thorns took possession, Portland had to try and play out of Utah’s high press, which was, as always, a struggle, and often a futile one.”

After watching this ugly dog again, though?

I think the problems are simpler, and deeper – meaning worse – than that.

Was the whole “direct play/shifty buildup/failure to convert resulting in repeated loss of possession” meme we’ve been seeing incorrect?

No. Here’s Sofascore’s “attack momentum” bar graph:

So, yeah, that was a problem again.

How about the whole “Thorns press is too easily bypassed/passed through” thing? Here’s just one example of Utah doing just that, already up a goal in the 51st minute. It starts with Kate Del Fava running out of the Utah third.

From there Del Fava runs through the Thorns front four…

..and then through the midfield. Olivia Moultrie is already bypassed, and though Sophia Wilson gets in some sort of vague move towards her Del Fava glides past her and into the back of the Thorns midfield, where she sees Nina Nijstad closing in from her left as Wilson chugs up behind her.

But look who’s running off the shoulder of Sam Hiatt! Kiana Palacios, c’mon down!

Del Fava’s pretty through ball breaks the final Thorns defensive line and Palacios is free on goal.

Luckily for Portland – this time! – Palacios doesn’t have a great option (Cloe Lacasse’ is a bit late and Reyna Reyes is galloping backwards) so Palacios slugs a hopeful cross that Arnold can field and end the danger.

The Royals ran this sort of play again and again (because 60% possession , right?), and every time they encountered the same lack of hindrance:
– fragile first-line pressing from the front four Thorns,
– disorganized and disconnected response in midfield; Thorns near the ball failed to close down the runners or cut off passes, like Wilson and Nijstad in the screenshot sequence above.

Here’s Sofascore’s sorry tale of the Thorns’ double pivot tape:

Brutal. Three total “defensive contributions”? At least Fleming won one in the air, but on the ground? 22% win rate? Ouch. Compare this dual hot mess to Utah’s Narumi Miura:

Like a one-woman wrecking ball compared to Portland’s notional DMs, eh?

But the worst problems were exposed in the backline.

As usual this match had the fanbase – at least, many of the online fans – howling about Sam Hiatt and Isabella Obaze and Carolyn Calzada and Marie Muller and Reyna Reyes and M.A. Vignola. Get better centerbacks! Get better fullbacks! Damn you, Agoos! Get better…players!

But it wasn’t Muller.

It wasn’t Hiatt.

It was the entire Thorns defensive unit.

This…

…and this…

…and this…

..and this…

…aren’t individual errors, or player skillset failures alone.

They’re what a defensive unit that utterly lacks coaching direction, cohesion, discipline, flexibility, understanding, and soccer intelligence looks like.

It’s not the players. Or not just the players. It’s the whole fucking system. Vytas, Lowdon, Vilahamn…this is on you now. (Sure, there’s an assload of blame to dump on Merritt Paulson, and Karina LeBLanc, and Mike Norris, and Rob Gale. But they’re not running this team now. You are.) So this mess is yours and, if it ever gets cleaned up, will be yours to clean up.

So, yeah.

We’ve been seeing a lot of this all season. Hell, we’ve been seeing it for several seasons, since 2022, at least. Unstructured “attack” that, when it fails to convert quickly, yields possession. Poor pressing or counterpressing, Lack of organized steel in midfield. Lack of discipline and organization in back. Fragility playing out of the back under pressure. Problems between the sticks.

So nothing new. But the cumulative effects suggests some serious problems within the organization, which we’ll get to when we wrap this one up.

Short Passes

Passing was what you’d think from the possession numbers; Utah 82% completion of 408 attempts, Portland 76% of 310, so comprehensively outpassed.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei’s xG plot:

As we’ll see in a bit, the xG-against is merciful to Portland; the “post-shot xG” was way uglier. What’s even uglier is the “good/great” xG numbers; of Portland’s 11 shots Wilson had five, of the eight “good/great” shots three were part of those, and of the 0.96xG Carlisle attributes to Wilson from those three…

(and I think that’s way too low; the 64th minute miss – which is not the right time-stamp; that shot came in the 60th minute – was damn near 1.0. The NWSL+ crew announced it at the time as 0.89xG and I think that was pretty damn near correct. Shit, it was four yards away from an open goal. That’s a gimme putt.)

…only one went in. That’s some epic futility.

Carlisle’s passing plots, first Portland:

You see what I mean about xG: “xGOT faced” is “post-shot xG”, and that’s pretty brutal.

Carlisle is being kind by naming names here, too, as strange as that sounds. It wasn’t just Arnold and Calzada. Wilson, Moultrie, Muller, Vignola, Vilahamn…the whole team was a hot mess.

Here’s Utah:

…Portland was a hot mess. Yep. Get it. Fuck.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32
Louisville – Away (L)	25
Angel City – Home (D)	No data
Bay FC – Home (W)	33
Kansas City – Away (L)	29
Utah – Home (D)	23
Louisville – Home (W)	21
Seattle – Away (L)	33
Denver – Away (L)	33
Gotham – Home (D)	23
Utah – Away (L)	17

Weird. The number says “tidy”, the best since late spring.

Utah was better, losing only 11, but I suspect the low Thorns turnover number is largely an effect of 1) Portland lacking possession, so lacking the opportunity to turn over, and 2) the effectiveness of Utah’s press. Most of the losses were not through poor passing, but failure to pass out of the press and getting pantsed.

Given that, it’s kind of immaterial that Muller coughed up three, Arnold, Calzada, and Fleming two each. Carelessness with the ball is never great, but in Utah? That wasn’t the problem.

Press!

Seventeenth match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

About what you’d expect.

Utah pressed a total of 86 times. Before halftime the Royals were all over Portland; 56 presses, 41 wins (73.2%) with a shocking 16 ball-winning duels. After going up a goal in the 47th minute Utah could sit in; only 30 presses, 20 wins (66.6%) and 10 forced turnovers.

Portland gave it a shot; a total of 70 presses, 30 before halftime (18 wins (60%) but only 4 forced turnovers), 40 after the break as desperation set in, though (as is often the case with desperation) with less success (20 wins, 10 ball wins).

Match time	Utah presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-48′	56(41) (73.2%)	30(18) (60%)
45-94′	30(20) (66.6%)	40(20) (50%)
Match Total	86(61) (70.9%)	70(38) (54.2%)

My thoughts:
1) Instead of racking through this, let’s look at just one of the Utah presses, on Reyes, in her own half, beginning in the 16th minute.

First she’s confronted by left back Nuria Rabano, who forces Reyes to turn back to shield the ball. Notice Palacios racing behind her to cut Reyes’ drop pass off from Calzada? That’s smart team soccer.

Rabano harasses the living shit out of Reyes, driving her back and inside.

Then, with Calzada safely out of the picture, Palacios joins in the “let’s press the shit out of this chica” fun. Palacios drops off, while a couple of other Royals – likely Mina Tanaka and Lacasse – drift over to see what devilment they can do.

Note that at this point Reyes could drop a pass to Calzada, or even all the way back to Arnold…

…but she’s too busy getting her ass busted by Palacios to pick her head up. Instead Palacious hounds her back to the touchline, where Reyes tries to turn and belt the ball away downfield and manages, instead, only to bounce the ball off Palacios and right back off herownself for a Royals throw-in deep in Portland’s defensive third.

There was a lot of shit just like that. That’s how a smart pressing team presses.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)
Louisville Away (L)	101(70) (69.5%)	62(35) (56.4%)
Angel City Home (D)	No data	No data
Bay FC Home (W)	59(34) (57.6%)	59(37) (62.7%)
Kansas City Away (L)	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)
Utah Home (D)	99(55) (55.5%)	60(31) (51.6%)
Louisville Home (W)	55(31) (56.3%)	28(13) (46.4%)
Seattle Away (L)	67(46) (68.6%)	66(35) (53.0%)
Denver Away (L)	46(24) (52.1%)	53(27) (50.9%)
Gotham Home (D)	60(32) (53.3%)	58(86) (67.4%)
Utah Away (L)	86(61) (70.9%)	70(38) (54.2%)

Corner Kicks

Two. One in each half, both long.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
43′	Moultrie	Long	Sailed over the scrum to Lyles, who headed a cross into the six, but nobody attacked it and Utah cleared.
87′	Moultrie	Long	Same again; all the way over, this time to Padelski. Her headed put-back dropped to Reyes, but Utah was on her and cleared.

Not entirely useless; both services were on a Thorns head, both were dropped back into the mixer, but – as they were most of the night – Utah got there “fustest with the mostest”.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+12/-1 : +4/-3 : +16/-4) Worked her tail off, got the opening goal, but then sputtered out in a welter of poor shots (including the horrific missed sitter/potential equalizer), was utterly chained by good Utah defense, faded away lacking support, lacking structure, and finally just out of time and ideas.

Her face says it all:

Tordin (83′ – +5/-1 : +1/-2 : +6/-3) Gorgeous through ball assist on Wilson’s goal, and then kinda nothing…one shot (on goal), 25 passes (1 “key pass”,but only 11 completed (44%), and three of her six pluses are defensive, presses or tackles. When your team needs goals, as a forward your job is to score them. That’s not the stat line of a scoring forward.

Padelski (7′ – +2/-0) Maddie Padelski worked hard, too, so it’s kind of a shame that she, like her squad, got not a damn thing out of that.

Moultrie (+5/-1 : +2/-4 : +7/-5) Livvy picked a really damn bad day to have a really ineffective afternoon.Two shots, neither on frame. Forced deep to try and stop Utah from running or passing straight through her midfield, and couldn’t, and not much else of note.

Lyles (69′ – +1/-1 : +2/-1 : +3/-2) If Moultrie was ineffective in Utah, Lyles was invisible. We’ve seen this before, going all the way back to Norris’ tenure and even before. Thorns forwards looking like they just met each other. No understanding, no anticipation, no buildup. While Utah was moving and passing to space, Portland was static and slow.

Unsurprisingly, that didn’t work very well.

Weaver (21′ – no rating) Even less impact than Lyles. Game state had something to do with that, but Utah scored two more unanswered goals after Weaver came on. This is not the Weaver we’d hoped to see.

Nijstad (70′ – +7/-0 : +0/-0 : +7/-0) Hustled hard in the first half as part of the double pivot, but (as we saw, if you go back up and look at her defensive stat sheet) with limited effect. Once the second half rout was on she and Fleming were practice cones, so I won’t say that yeeting her for Bogere was a complete mistake, but…

Bogere (20′ – +2/-4) …it didn’t help much, either. I think I’ve made myself pretty clear by now. This wasn’t “Oh, Calzada (or Arnold or Bogere or…) had a bad day”. This was a full-on system failure, and needs to be looked on as such.

Fleming (+3/-3 : +1/-2 : +4/-5) Seeing these sorts of numbers from someone like, say, Bogere is disappointing but not “shocking”.

Seeing them from Fleming, who’s been looking solid this season and is realistically expected to be a core team leader? That’s shocking.

Muller (59′ – +0/-4 : +1/-3 : +1/-7) Okay, now. Saying “this was a team/system failure” doesn’t mean that some players didn’t have a bad game. And Muller? Holy Hell, she stunk up the Utah pitch. Poor positioning, loose marking, poor passing…you name an aspect of her game and Muller did poorly at it. Unfortunately she isn’t the only Thorns fullback who’s looked troubled over the stretch of recent poor results, because…

Vignola (31′ – +3/-3) …wasn’t tearing up the pitch, either. I’m inclined to slap the entire backline upside the head for wandering about lost while Brecken Mozingo camped out in their eighteen-yard box, as lonely as a little cloud in an empty sky, to pot the easiest fucking goal possible…but Vignola probably should have been there first so I’ll blame her the most.

While the coaching staff has big-ass work to do, a lot of individuals need to take a hard look in the mirror. This is your job. You get payed to play a goddamn game. So fucking play it. Play it like it means something to you. It should.

Hiatt (70′ – +2/-2 : +0/-2 : +2/-4) If I’m gonna dopeslap Vignola for Mozingo I have to ka-chop Hiatt for the first Delzer goal. Her backline was a hot mess all over that play, yes, but Delzer was her mark and Hiatt stood there looking clueless as Delzer glided into space to nail the equalizer.

Obaze (20′ – +0/-1) Don’t get me wrong. I get why so many fans are pissed off about the centerback situation. Every one we saw Sunday, Obaze, Hiatt, Calzada, made individual mistakes and, as part of the backline, looked all in pieces.

Would I love to have a healthy Emily Sonnett, or a Naomi Girma, or even a Del Fava, back there in Thorns spritzer pink? Ohhellyes. Do I have the slightest idea who out there is actually gettable? Who of them the RAJ scouting combine can find? Who is affordable? What the RAJ organization has in cap space to pay for them?

Ohhellno.

I certainly hope that the RAJ people, from Coach Vilahamn through GM Agoos to the Bhathals, can see that the current roster isn’t getting things done. But “changing that” means answering all the above questions, and those are answers – hell, there are probably questions – I don’t have.

All I can do is hope that they do.

Calzada (+2/-0 : 1/-4 : +3/-4) Umm…about that “centerback problem” thing..?

As with Muller; the comprehensive squad breakdown doesn’t mean that some players didn’t have a bad game, and the poor rook looked as raw and confused as, well, as she probably was. Like a noob in a boss fight, Utah was just raining five kinds of hell on her and all she could do was look like you’d think it would look like, being in the center of the mean point of impact when the shit rain begins to fall.

Reyes (+2/-0 : +1/-4 : +3/-4) Same-same. Gets an extra lick for getting outworked by Lacasse on the second Delzer goal, as well as just a rough game in general. Damn lucky that the Royals 42nd minute attack fell apart, because it was the vacant space she had left unguarded that they exploited.

Arnold (+1/-3 : +1/-1 : +2/-4) And, yes, Arnold had another bad game, too. One strong save in the 45+3rd minute, but frozen on the second Delzer goal, and this..?

C’mon, keep! Goddamn, you’re not gonna get any help at that point. It’s you and Mozingo, woman-a-woman-o, and at the very least you gotta do this:

Cut down the angles to the extent you can. Standing there with half the goalmouth wide open for Mozingo to pick out her spot like a Russian sniper on the roof of the Tractor Factory? Shot-stopping is supposed to be your strength. Play like it.

Coach Vilahamn: No way around it, min vän; this was a real stinker, the worst whipping in your short Thorns career and among the worst in club history. You’re now officially up in the Thorns Coaching Ring of Dishonor along with two of the worst gaffers on record (and Mark Parsons, yeah, but everyone has an off day…).

Now what?

We can sit around and pick the raisins our of this turd all day. Roster. Tactics. Formations. Individual skillset failures and mistakes.

The bottom line is that what we saw in Utah is all those cans that the club – both the Peregrine and Raj flavors – have been kicking down the road since 2022 at the latest and probably really since the end of the Parsons tenure.

And for the Bhathals to change any and all of that means that same kind of long-term thinking; a top-to-bottom assessment of the club as it stands, a vision for where the club can and should be, and then a full suite of executive decisions and money-commitment from the ownership to get there.

I get a lot of the quick-fix roars from the fanbase. “Get better CBs!” “Fire the coach!” “Get a top-flight #6! Keeper! Head coach!”…but, yeah, no. It may be all the above, it may be some of that…plus factor in all the known- and unknown-unknowns. Especially the latter, because there’s so much we the fans don’t know.

Like…how deep are the RAJ pockets? How good are Agoos’ scouting contacts? Who’s available…at CB? At #6? At keeper? At head coach? Who’s available and affordable? Who’s available and affordable and wants to come here? If we get all those pieces, will they fit? How?

(And let’s be honest with ourselves; this isn’t a “bad team”. This isn’t hot garbage like Chicago. If it was the solution is simple – tear it down to the subgrade and rebuild. Painful, slow, expensive, ugly. Yes. But simple. Here? Not so much. Our issues look complicated…which often means more expensive and slow.

(Indeed; with this squad it’s not impossible, and maybe even likely, that it scrapes in above the red line and then if they get hot in the playoffs Vilahamn’s job is safe for another season. Possible? Sure it is.)

So, as I think I laid out, our situation is pretty difficult.

Which makes plain that the solutions, whatever they are or may turn out to be, aren’t going to be quick, or cheap, or easy.