Thorns FC: The Curse of Cary

If you cornered any random Thorns fan last weekend and asked them “Which NWSL team is the Thorns’ biggest rivals?”, my guess is that many, probably most, of them would say “Seattle!”.

Because, well…Seattle. Fuck. Seattle.

There was a time, though…

A Short History of a Damned Rivalry

If you asked some of us we old people might have replied “FC Kansas City”.

Because between about 2013 and 1015 Vlatko Andonovski’s FCKC was the most dangerous opponent the Thorns regularly encountered; victims in the nailbiting 2013 semifinal overtime, then victors in the 2014 rematch, and after that NWSL champions in 2014 and 2015.

After that, though? No question, the only “rival” was…

The Damned Courage.

Beginning with 2016, in their incarnation as the Western New York Flash, and with the help of referee Marco Vega (spit!), the Damned shiked the semifinal out from under what might have been the best squad Mark Parson ever fielded. The wenches rubbed it in by then taking Washington to penalties and nicking the star.

Portland got revenge the following season, clubbing The Damned in the Final. Ha!

Then the Damned came here – here! to Portland! – in the 2018 Final and mopped our own pitch with us, 0-3. Shit!

The next year was even more brutal. We met three times in the regular season. The June match in Carolina was a tepid chapter in the rivalry, a 1-1 draw.

Then Carolina came west in August and lost here 2-1…but scored two own-goals – the only time I’ve ever seen a team score all the goals and still lose, perhaps one of the most bizarre matches I’ve seen live until this season’s Magnificent Nine win over Seattle.

The Damned left Portland determined to get revenge.

And did; in September returned and thrashed us 0-6. Debinha scored. Crystal Dunn scored. Lynn (Williams) Biyendolo scored. And scored. And scored. (Bagged the hat-trick). Hell, Kristen Hamilton scored, too.

The Damned Courage rubbed that in, taking their second straight championship after the Thorns got knocked out in the semifinal.

We got a sort of revenge the following “season”, eliminating The Damned from the COVID Cup in Utah. Pretty weak sauce after 2018 and 2019, honestly.

Then Carolina sort of imploded after then-head coach Paul Riley (spit!) was outed for the crime-y ass he is, and the great Damned squads of 2016-2020 came apart, and Laura Harvey’s Seattle rose in their place as The Great Enemy.

Tale of the Damned Tape

Through all this time there’s one thing that’s been consistent about the Carolina-Portland rivalry, one familiar chapter of the story that gets repeated over and over, one meme that rules them all; traveling to Cary sucks for the Thorns.

Here’s the sorry tale:
2017: 1-nil loss in April
2018: 1-nil loss in March, 2-1 loss in August
2019: 1-1 draw in June (finally – a point…after four tries!)
2021: 2-nil loss in June, 0-1 win in September (finally – a road win!)
2022: 3-1 loss in August
2023: 3-3 draw in March
2024: 2-nil loss in April
2025: 1-1 draw in April.

Ten matches, 1-3-6, 6 points of 30, 8GF, 16GA, -8GD.

Well, fuck me runnin’.

We suck in Cary. That’s just how life works. So when the Thorns traveled to Carolina this past weekend after dropping an ugly loss in San Diego I wasn’t exactly brimming with overconfidence.

So, of course, the Thorns broke out of the gate like Oguri Cap, launching attacks in the 5th and 9th minutes before Jayden Perry hucked an 11th minute cross that Reilyn Turner dove to head past Kailen Sheridan to put the visitors up 1-nil.

(Oh, and while I didn’t see this live, the replay sure makes it look like Reina Reyes and Turner may have been offside. Hey, I’ll take it!)

Better than going up early, the Thorns didn’t let off; Portland kept pushing up, nicking a couple of corner kicks across the quarter hour.

But almost at the half hour Turner looked to find Sophia Wilson driving at goal and, instead…

…passed directly to Hannah Betfort.

Betfort found Manaka Matsukubo, who’d already beaten both Reina Reyes and Jessie Fleming down the left touchline, and dimed her like, well, Hannah Betfort used to do for us.

Matsukubo played a neat 1-2 with Ashley Sanchez and then drove into the top left corner of the Portland eighteen-yard-box, and…

…the Thorns backline let her.

Sam Hiatt shuffled backwards a couple of steps, providing Matsukubo with one of those setpiece dummy things and Portland nothing but a screen for Matsukubo’s shot, which bent inside the far post and it was back to being all square.

And after that? The first half was pretty much all Carolina:

Well, okay, Not all.

There’s that blue stalactite around the half hour. That’s Reyes lobbing into the box for Olivia Moultrie to hammer a pointblank rocket off Sheridan and then follow her own shot to pot the go-ahead goal.

Which was followed five minutes later by Ryan Williams’ run to the Portland byline. Williams’ cross…

…found Ashley Sanchez utterly unmarked fifteen yards out. Sanchez rounded a spinning Fleming and blasted into the top right corner to level the half, and, as it turned out, the match.

Because after the break neither side could convert. Lots of back-and-forth. Both squads had chances and half-chances, both got attackers into dangerous positions, both hacked up some cringe-worthy defensive goofs, but somehow everyone fluffed, shot over or wide, was blocked, failed to connect with (or provide) the final pass.

Final? 2-2.

Stats pretty even, so not really surprising that this turned out to be the third draw in a row between the two sides. Both gained a bit on the table; for Portland a return to the top three, for The Damned a slight climb back, from 14th to 11th.

Mind you, we’re goddamn lucky that Peyton Linnehan still hasn’t…

…figured out how to put the biscuit in the basket or The Damned would have stolen all the points at the death.

Never change, Peeps.

We’ll talk a bit more about the Thorns play in the comments, but a couple of things stuck with me after watching this thing twice.

Defending?

Despite sitting in a low-to-low-mid-block for much of the match…

…this was the latest match where the Thorns DMs (Bogere and Fleming) and the backline followed the same overall pattern; stay tight, composed, and organized…until an opponent somehow unlocks them.

Gets in behind, passes or carries through the midfield, finds a bit of space – and, as the screenshots above and below show…

…there always seems to be that space – and suddenly it’s headless-chicken time and people in pink shirts are running around aimlessly and without any apparent understanding of what everyone else in pink is doing.

That’s usually when the ball ends up in the back of our net.

Attacking?

You’ll notice that both Portland goals came off a combination of direct lofted balls into the heart of the Carolina 18-yard box and then some hero-ball for the finish.

What buildup the Thorns AMs and forwards put together – and they did put together some nice buildup – would often get within a final pass or a shot only to fail to connect the pass or put the shot on frame.

You’ll also notice that of the Thorns’ just-over-1-xG, almost exactly half…

…is the Moultrie goal.

There’s a couple of small risers around 50′-55′ that represent Wilson having a couple of cracks from distance (and not badly; the 49th minute attempt was juuuust over the crossbar) as well as the squad working Moultrie into a dangerous spot but Moultrie’s shot was tame and right at Sheridan.

As we’ll see, this mat have been – and this match may have been a one-off – because:

1. The Damned were narrow as the business end of a garden trowel, trying to slice their chance creators up the gut, while
2. Portland tried to work down the touchlines.
3. Both approaches sorta-worked, but only because they were set up to perfectly offset each other, and
4. There were several Thorns players who were doing what looked to me weird things either because a) they were doing weird things, or b) I’ve watched Kenball for so long that it’s hard for me to understand a Thorns squad that’s not playing Kenball and they weren’t, quite.

Okay, well. I think I’ve beaten up the Thorns enough.

Here’s the final word; we got a fucking point in Cary. Keeping in mind that we were within the lethal radius of the Curse and in the end at the mercy of the finishing issues of Peyton Linnehan, I’m inclined to take the point and move on.

Short Passes

Once again; “next match, flip passing switch”.

Having bossed the pathetic Current around mid-last-week the Curse of Playing Sorta-Like-Shit In Cary bit the Thorns dead square in the passing ass last weekend: Carolina completed 85% of 500 passes, Portland only 77% of 324. The Damned were all over possession, too, 60% to 40%.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei with the passing. First, Portland:

Okay, first – look at the time stamp in the upper right corner of the pitch. This is a really odd snapshot of the match, missing almost all of Turner’s shift and is cut off only five minutes or so into the second half, so also missing most of her replacement, Alidou’s.

The timing of this snapshot also has the effect of erasing the impact of replacing Vignola with Muller at halftime. Vignola’s role was largely defensive. Had the diagram shown Muller in her place I suspect that it would have mirrored Reyes’ passing numbers as well as the connections with Moultrie near the center spot and Wilson (who was playing wider to the right after Turner came off) where Reyes is passing up to Tordin.

But even so this is very…odd, and I wonder if it reflects some cooking from our Swedish chef. Hard to say. I’m tempted to put a pin this one and see what the first game in May looks like.

Here’s Carolina:

And, as the scoreline shows, so they did. My guess is that the flat head of the frontline reflects a lot of this:

Portland sitting in their low to low-mid block. What’s interesting about this screenshot is the two blue shirts out wide; the Damned didn’t really work the flanks much. Typically if the ball went out to them the wingers would turn it back inside. It worked, at least as well as Portland’s wide attack did, so fair play to them.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25

Both teams were sloppy; The Damned coughed up 25 as well. Neither side had a “much-better” half; Portland lost 15 in the first half, 10 in the second, Carolina 10 in the first, 15 in the second.

As we’ll see, the problem with the Thorns’ turnover numbers is that the Carolina press was relatively ineffective, so where the Portland attacks broke down (and that’s where most of the giveaways occurred) it was largely not because of Carolina pressure but Portland carelessness.

Perry was the Biggest Loser with four-and-a-half. Vignola turned over three-and-a-half times, Turner three times. Several players turned over twice.

I flagged several of these with “!!!” symbols which is my shorthand for “ooh! dangerous turnover”, including Vignola in the 4th and 21st minutes and Padelski in the 75th minute. Looking at my field notes, though, I don’t see any Carolina threats or close calls leading from them, so apparently either Carolina couldn’t take advantage of them or Portland got back and snuffed out the threats.

Press!

Fifth match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Despite defending deep Portland was more aggressive pressing; a total of 56 presses compared to Carolina’s 35. Portland’s pressing success, though…

In the first half Portland pressed 24 times, won only 8 (33.3%) and turned the ball over in only 4 of those wins. Going the other way Carolina pressed about 11 times but won 9 of the 11 (81.8%) including 4 ball wins.

Both sides stepped up the pressure after the break. Portland won 18 of 32 attempts (56.2%), gaining ball possession in 6 of them. Carolina pressed 24 times and won just over half (13: 54.1%).

Match time	NCC presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-48′	11(9) (81.8%)	24(8) (33.3%)
45-96′	24(13) (54.1%)	32(18) (56.2%)
Match Total	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)

My thoughts:
1) The success of the high press against Kansas City seems to have encouraged Coach Vilahamn to sic his troops on Carolina.
2) Since Carolina is both less-sucky and more precise (I wonder if their number of Japanese national team players has an effect on this) the result was much less effective.
3) Between unforced and pressed turnovers Portland struggled to string together passes in attack as well as face sudden and unexpected danger in back.
4) Luckily for Portland the Carolina press was less aggressive than the Thorns’. So the much better success rate was mitigated by the much lower overall attempts.
5) Overall, though, I’d say Carolina won the Press Battle. Had they not had a couple of breakdowns on direct Portland attacks (and had Linnehan picked up some finishing skills) they could very well have nabbed all the points. So I’m inclined, as I said above, take the road point.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)

I think the “quality vs quantity” thing ended up largely cancelling out both sides’ pressing.

Corner Kicks

Four, all long, two in each half.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
16′	Moultrie	Long	To the near post. Carolina cleared over the byline.
16′	Moultrie	Long	This time to the far post. Pinged up in the air a couple times, cleared without a shot.
61′	Moultrie	Long	Back post again, cleared. Recycled and eventually Moultrie had a go, well wide left
92′	Moultrie	Long	Into the scrum, cleared out to Muller. She fed Castellanos whose shot was way too high.

Nothing.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+5/-2 : +10/-2 : +15/-4) Lots of the usual hard work, a lot of her usual success, and yet…just not quite back. Still lacking that perfect service, still not quite showing understanding with her teammates. Not a bad match given her long layoff, but still some ways from the Wilson we saw before 2025.

Tordin (69′ – +4/-1 : +6/-0 : +10/-1) I don’t remember when I wrote the thing about Vilahamn figuring out how to get the Thorns forwards all working together and building team goals. Well, he hasn’t and they aren’t. There’s moments, but only moments. Tordin in particular is suffering from Wilson sucking up the opportunities she used to get.

Padelski (21′ – +5/-3) Different player, same problem.

Moultrie (+6/-3 : +6/-4 : +12/-7) The relatively high minuses are for a combination of poor shooting and sloppy passing/turnovers, but huge credit for following her own shot. Forwards giving up and just loafing after their or a teammate’s crack is a ginormous pet peeve of mine, so get some, Livvy.

Turner (25′ – +3/-1) Turner landed hard on her knee as well as partially underneath her defender, so her early exit was worrisome. She turned up on the post-match stream up and around, though, so good enough. If you’re gonna hero-ball, at least don’t break your kneecap.

Alidou (65′ – +1-0 : +3/-1 : +4/-1) I still don’t really understand why the Canadian is first forward off the bench before Padelski. She’s not awful! But she’s not all that useful, either. Look at their numbers just for this one; Padelski’s works out to about +15/-9 for the hour shift. Again, Alidou must just kill it in training, or, possibly the new gaffer has been told she’s his best forward bench option and still believes it.

Bogere (69′ – +3/-0 : +3/-1 : +6/-1) Look at the passing diagram. Bogere and Fleming were doing something very odd and, frankly, I don’t think it worked all that well. Had a horrible moment in the 57th minute when she and Hiatt were just kind of loafing around the midfield and Matsukubo decided to fuck with them, and…

…damn near succeeded in winning a 1v0.

It’s this sort of thing that makes me tear what’s left of my hair. C’mon, people.

Castellanos (21′ – +1/-1) Why? If you’re playing for the road point Castellanos doesn’t give you any additional defensive sturdiness. If you’re making a late drive for the road win she doesn’t give you any additional attacking power. This is pure KenBall-subbing. I won’t credit Vilahamn with any real input into roster or tactics until shit like this sub goes away.

Fleming (+5/-5 : +8/-2 : +13/-7) Very much a regression to the Fleming-doesn’t understand-her-teammates Era, and that hurt the squad, because without Coffey this squad needs Fleming to be rolling. Big failure not closing down Sanchez on her goal, too. Not awful as an individual, not really effective as part of the squad. I hope this, too, was a one-off.

Vignola (45′ – +5/-3) and Muller (45′ – +6/-4) As noted above, replaced defending with forward passing just as Portland stopped getting lucky with Route One/Hero-ball, so not particularly effective. Like Fleming, not awful, just not really a ton of positives from either players’ work.

Hiatt (+1/-3 : +1/-4 : +2/-7) Her failure to step to Matsukubo was about 90% of the culpability for the first concession. More of what we’ve seen; long periods of decent positioning and coherent defending marred by moments of confusion and/or outright panic as in the screenshot in the Bogere comment above. Given her experience I’d really like to see more of the former and less of the latter.

Perry (+2/-1 : +3/-2 : +5/-3) Assisted the Turner goal so, good. Other than that, a lot like Hiatt; lots of composure interspersed with outbreaks of “WTF?”. There’s enough of this to suspect that this is a collective training problem, which means coaching.

Reyes (+7/-4 : +4/-2 : +11/-6) As discussed above, gets to bite off a piece of the Matsukubo goal (in Reyes’ case, for falling asleep and letting Manaka run behind her…). As with all the defending, this all gets lumped into the “one awshit cancels a thousand attagirls” problem. A professional player can’t switch off, not for a moment.

Arnold (+1/-0 : +2/-1 : +3/-1) Damn lucky Linnehan couldn’t hit water if she fell out of a boat, but there’s also this:

That’s “bailing out your backline” and stoning Sanchez like whatever the Aussie version of “like a fucking boss” is. Had another huge save from a corner kick in the 76th minute (with her face, too; goddamn!). So another solid outing for Portland goalkeeping.

Coach Vilahamn: I’m not sure how much this is a “Vilahamn team” yet. There seems to be a lot of Gale/Lowdon(?) things still going on, and what’s not – like the passing diagram for this one – seem to owe as much or more to the individual game state than any sort of “system”.

Now, though, the new boss has almost a month to work with everyone who’s not off playing FIFA games. Will that change the squad, either in the form of roster moves, or tactics?

We’ve got quite a bit of time to wait and see.