After four games without a point the constant drumbeat of press coverage of the Thorns was “…longest losing streak EVAH!!!“
So the Thorns needed something “not a loss”, went to Los Angeles. and stopped losing.
They were even leading..!
…for fucking twelve minutes.
Well…fuckadoo.
We’ve been all around the block with this glass-half-full-glass-half-empty-glass-smashed-to-fragments-and-the-bits-pounded-into-dust farrago, so what’s to say about this one?
It wasn’t a loss.
It was a road point, and those are never bad.
It was the first time since May 17th that the Thorns scored more than a single goal in a match, and the first time since then that neither goal involved Sophia Smith.
The Angels are not a good team. Oh, hell, they’re a bad team. So when you see stuff like this:
It makes life difficult because it’s hard to tell whether the Thorns looked better than they had in weeks, or the Angels were just so poor that anything better than rec-league-level play against them looked like the Clockwork Orange taking down San Marino.
Stuff like this:
What in holy Hell is that cluster of black shirts even doing? Not to take anything away from Moultrie’s goal – it was nicely taken – but if you give me that much time and space..?
Yeah, okay, I’ll shank it wide.
But no decent pro player will.
While I’m dumping on the often-random level of play I do want to hand over a rose for this, the buildup to the Weaver goal, because…bing…
…bang…
…boom!
See! Isn’t that nice? Isn’t that pretty? Isn’t that easy?? Two passes to runs into space, one shot, one goal!
C’mon, gang! You can do this? Why not do it more often? Isn’t this more fun that endless dinking around outside the eighteen leading to a pointless cross?
I guess so.
Oh…and FWIW…
…I think Weaver IS offside on the pass from Muller. At least more offside than this Sinclair run…
…several minutes later that was called offside.
Oh, well. It’s a cruel game.
This game, though…it was a weird and perplexing game just because it was so hard to tell what was going on.
For example, two things happened:
1) the Thorns closed up the ugly gaps they’d been leaving in front of their backline, and pressed high and hard for much of the game, and
2) Angel City coughed up 18 turnovers.
So, terrific, right? Go go, gadget Thorns press! Make those turnovers happen!
Except the breakdown looked like this:
– Attacks initiated by Thorns pressing AC into turnovers – the format is number of turnover type/(time of turnover): 5/(9′, 9′, 27′, 38′, and 44′)
– Attacks initiated by AC making an unforced error: 10/(7′, 8′, 14′, 15′, 17′, 20′, 29′, 49′, 64′, and 94′)
– Attacks initiated by both (slight pressure + gross error): 3/(16′, 16′, and 53′)
Plus the Thorns generated five attacks “on their own” (13′, 49′, 62′, 64′, and 85′) which included both goals.
That is great. That’s terrific. As much as ACFC sucked, that does look better from Portland.
But. It worked…against Angel City.
Does that work against Orlando? Kansas City? Washington?
I haven’t the slightest fucking idea.
Remember, we thought we saw “improvement” back in April and May. Norris out, Kenergy in, six straight wins..!
Then the morning came and the party ended. Turned out to be bad opponents and a dead-cat bounce.
I’d like to think this match was an uptick for the Thorns.
But this season has made me skittish. We’ll have to wait and see if this was a ray of light or just another false dawn.
Short Passes
Per OPTA Portland was brutally out-passed; connecting on 76% of 396 passes to ACFC’s 80% of 495 passes. But as noted above, the Angels turned the ball over a lot. A hell of a bunch of those pass-chains ended up in touch, or to a Dorito shirt.
Here’s our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle – first, Portland:
The PMRs bear him out, and we’ll get there in the comments.
The backs, including the wingbacks, look fine. But forward of that..? WTF? The two “forwards” are stacked on top of each other, Christine Sinclair is in the center circle with the #6 with Olivia Moultrie and Jessie Fleming as…what, AMs? Withdrawn forwards?
It sorta worked, but…damn if that doesn’t looks Ken-ish.
Now Angel City:
I was intrigued to see Portland – which usually plays KenBall, going up the flanks to bomb in pointless crosses to Smith (who don’t play that way, Willis…) – playing more centrally as their passing diagram suggests.
Tweed, OTOH, obviously saw money to be made in the deep flanks where Marie Muller and Reyna Reyes could be caught upfield and the Thorns defense crisped.
Well, it worked twice, so maybe she wasn’t wrong.
Turnover and over.
Here’s how things are going
Opponent (Result) – 2024 | Turnovers |
Kansas City (L) | 43 |
Gotham (L) | 30 |
Louisville (D) | 54 |
Carolina (L) | 34 |
Houston (W) | No data |
Chicago (W) | No data |
Bay FC (W) | 41 |
Washington (W) | 26 |
Seattle (W) | 20 |
Houston (W) | 21 |
Orlando (L) | 28 |
North Carolina (W) | 27 |
Seattle (D) | 26 |
Kansas City (L) | 35 |
Utah (D) | 35 |
San Diego (W) | 30 |
Gotham (L) | 43 |
Bay FC (L) | 35 |
Washington (L) | 35 |
Chicago (L) | 35 |
Angel City (D) | 25 |
Better! Especially in the second half; 10 turnovers after halftime to the 15 before the break.
The Biggest Loser was Muller with six-and-a-half, but (as her passing chart shows) she was also hitting a lot, too; that’s the risk with being the spar pole. You try a lot of passes, you miss some, too.
Kelli Hubly, Mackenzie Arnold, and Fleming turned over three each, and six others had one or a couple.
The other big difference is that the turnovers, especially in the second half, were usually less lethal…other than the Hubly-to-Reyes missed 10th minute attempt that turned into the Thompson goal.
So…better.
Corner Kicks
Four, one in the first half, all the others in a 85th-to-87th minute flurry, all long.
Time | Taker | Short/Long? | Result |
21′ | Moultrie | Long | Easily cleared. |
85′ | Moultrie | Long | Cleared out to Muller, who banged the ball off a defender for another corner |
85′ | Moultrie | Long | Cleared out, this time to Sauerbrunn, whose dangerous shot forced Haracic to turn over her bar for yet another corner |
86′ | Moultrie | Long | Pinged off heads; Sheva’s, then Coffey’s, but then went to ACFC. |
Brunn’s shot was dangerous, and the 86th minute service might have gone to someone. Not much from the other two.
Throw-Ins
I counted both sides taking 22 throw-ins. The two halves were very different; Portland threw in 15 times in the first half, ACFC only six. The proportions reversed after the break; Portland with seven throws, Angel City with 16.
Of Portland’s throw-ins I had 15 (68%) connecting successfully and six (27.3%) going to the Angels. One (3.7%) was “neutral”, going neither to Portland nor ACFC (usually meaning either out for another throw close to the original spot, or pinging around to be decided by actions onfield).
ACFC completed 18 throws (81.8%) and lost two (7.4%). Two (7.4%) were “neutral”.
Megan Reid is another of this “Jess McDonald” long throwers, and she hucked several into the Thorns eighteen. Didn’t get any joy from them, but still seems like a useful skill.
Here’s how that’s going:
Opponent | Advantage gained | Advantage lost | Opponent gain | Opponent loss |
Kansas City | 62.5% | 8.3% | 59.2% | 40.1% |
Gotham | 62.8% | 22.8% | 57.1% | 38% |
Racing | 84.3% | 15.7% | 43.7% | 50% |
Carolina | 70.9% | 29.2% | 73% | 27% |
Houston | ||||
Chicago | ||||
Bay FC | 64.2% | 28.5% | 71.4% | 28.5% |
Washington | 41.6% | 58.3% | 62.5% | 34.3% |
Seattle | 71.4% | 14.2% | 80% | 20% |
Houston | 67.8% | 25% | 69.6% | 30.3% |
Orlando | 76% | 24% | 73% | 30.7% |
Carolina | 89.4% | 5.2% | 57.6% | 26.9% |
Seattle | 85.7% | 9.5% | 68.7% | 28.7% |
Kansas City | 70.7% | 29.3% | 72.7% | 27.3% |
Utah | 65.5% | 30% | 50% | 50% |
San Diego | ||||
Gotham | 47.6% | 28.6% | 50% | 35% |
BFC | 63.6% | 27.3% | 62% | 20% |
Washington | 60% | 40% | 72.2% | 27.8% |
Chicago | 75% | 15.6% | 36.6% | 50% |
Angel City | 68% | 27.3% | 81.8% | 7.4% |
Average | 68.2% | 24.4% | 62.2% | 31.2% |
Player Ratings and Comments
Sinclair (92′ – +8/-1 : +7/-1 : +15/2) Here’s the thing with Sinc.
As we keep mentioning, she’s steeped in good soccer. Things other players have to work to do she does in her sleep. All those clever passes, cunning runs, pretty buildups? Bred in the bone.
But. She’s go no wheels left. Can’t jump. Late to tackles and through-balls. Against slow or poor opponents like ACFC or Mexican sides? She can still contribute.
Against a good, pacey outfit like Orlando or KCC? No.
It was great to see Sinc have a good match in LA, and it was good.
It’d be better to see her coach realize that she’s become a spot-starter for matches just like that one and us her as such. Ken? You listening?
D’Aquila (~8′ – no rating) Just welcome relief for tired middle-aged legs.
Weaver (62′ – +8/-3 : +3/-1 : +11/-4) Welcome back, Big Fun.
Note the different halves, tho. There’s a reason she’s on minute-restriction. Hopefully that eases with each succeeding game, because she’s the hell on wheels this squad needs.
Turner (28′ – +2/-1) Unfortunate to have to replace the sparkplug and suffer by comparison.
Moultrie (+6/-2 : +7/-0 : +13/-2) Low bar, but OM had a better match than she’d had in a while. Active, tidy in possession, and a nicely-potted goal. This is what your base performance should be, Liv.
Fleming (78′ – +10/-2 : +4/-2 : +14/-4) On the other hand, Jessie Fleming was in utter Beast Mode in a way we’ve never seen here. THIS is what her CWNT fans rave about. Her pluses include five outstanding passes and three other “attacking” moves, two tackles-for-gain as well as a forechecking press that forced a turnover, and two recoveries. Dangerous on both sides of the ball and an engine in midfield.
Keep this up and I’ll be a happy boy.
Sheva (12′ – +2/-1) No real impact.
Coffey (+6/-0 : +3/-0 : +9/-0) This is what our guy was talking about:
His conspiracy theory is that Ken is sitting Coffey over the CBs as a destroyer because he doesn’t trust them (or them and his keeper(s) both).
I’m…not sure. Ken’s grasp of players’ skillsets seems iffy, and his roster decisions are often bizarre. Is this part of a cunning plan more cunning than a cunning fox who’s Dean of Cunning at Cunning University?
Or is just more (shrug emoji) Ken stuff?
Either way, Coffey is effective as a destroyer, but it’s like using a Ferrari to deliver pizza.
Reyes (+2/-1 : +5/-0 : +7/-1) The backline got toasted twice, but Reyes wasn’t to blame. Decent outing.
Muller (+5/-2 : +10/-2 : +15/-4) On the other hand, Marie Muller was a tangle of contradictions. Terrific passing, largely solid defending, but ballwatching on the Emslie equalizer. One oops…well, you know. But, like Reyes, not the final boss for the backline problems.
Hubly (+2/-2 : +3/-5 : +5/-7) Okay, now. You? You were a problem.
From getting spun like a dreidel on the Thompson goal to this…
…which could very easily have drawn a penalty in the 43rd minute and forced your side to rely on Arnold’s strength against the spot to avoid going in at halftime down two goals, you were…you. A scary – as in “match-losing” – derp waiting to happen.
I get it; the three-back means you play.
But I don’t have to like it, and I don’t. You worry me.
Sauerbrunn (+3/-0 : +5/-4 : +8/-4) Trail 33 and I disagree on ‘Brunn.
We both agree she’s a solid centerback, as she was in LA.
I, on the other hand, am skeptical of her as teacher, coach, and mentor. Since losing Emily Menges first to injury in 2022 then to foolishness in 2023, the Thorns backline has regressed as a unit.
Last season they conceded more goals than any team above the red line and all but two below it. This season? Same position except the teams below us suck as bad or worse.
I think Sauerbrunn is a bright, thoughtful, generally decent human being. But if you judge her by her work? She doesn’t seem to radiate soccer skill to those around her, and that’s the fundamental quality for a teacher, coach, or mentor.
So I don’t understand the enthusiasm for hiring her to coach here.
If she is, and can? Great. But color me skeptical until that happens.
Obaze (+3/-0 : +3/-1 : +6/-1) Like Reyes and Muller; decent match on a tough day.
Arnold (+0/-2 : +1/-2 : +1/-4) Ooookay, now we come to it.
I always thought the hype surrounding your signing was ridiculous. You were supremely average at West Ham and elsewhere at the club level and had a big World Cup against the penalty spot. But your metrics are meh, and, as we pointed out against Chicago, you have issues with positioning and decision-making, and ACFC brought those in with a shout.
Getting beat to your near post by Thompson? Not great, Macca!
But this…
The gang at Stumptown gave you a ton of stick for failing to hold Spencer’s cross. I think that’s harsh; the cross was a rising rocket from close in, and you went full stretch just to meet it.
No, my stick is that you should know that and play the ball appropriately.
You have to box it away; high and beyond your back post, or over the bar. Failing that you set yourself and the squad up to concede, which your backline helped by…
…all watching the ball like there was fucking money in it. Well, goddamn.
Oh, and this?
That wasn’t bright, either. Lucky for you that 1) the ball was past the byline and 2) the center referee Encarnacion was letting everything go all night.
But, still.
This kind of stuff is on you. With the big hype around your acquisition you’re the starting keeper. If you want your team in the hunt for playoff cash? You’ve got to be better.
Coach Ken: Out sick?
It’s difficult to suss out how much of this match, good and ill, goes back to Gale and how much was Lowdon.
Which adds to the “uptick” problem. Not only was it “Portland better or ACFC worse?” but throw in “Portland’s problems (defensive derps, lots of muddled play) are on Ken, or Portland’s improvements (better spacing, better pressing, some individuals’ (Fleming, Moultrie) play) are on Ken?”
Like I said at the start; I think we don’t know.
In two days we play again in California.
Maybe then we’ll know.
Dear NWSL and CBS:
This?
This is not fucking acceptable.
I get you give a shit; soccer, like all life on Earth, is nothing to you but a massive cash grab.
But. C’mon. You want to run ads when the clock is running?
Show the fucking NFL.
Or college ball.
Or baseball.
Or fucking Dutch ditch vaulting.
But soccer don’t work like that.
And, at least, if you’re going have to do this abomination, make the match window the big window!!!
FUCK!! I can’t believe I have to get mad about this.
- Thorns FC: Un Soir Sans - October 1, 2024
- Thorns FC: Just Half - September 26, 2024
- Thorns FC: Empty - September 17, 2024
The “eye test” for me in the 1st half was “who is this organized team and what did they do with the Thorns”? That feeling seemed to disappear in the second half for me. Maybe the Weaver effect. I would love to see Lowdon take the reigns for the rest of the season, not because I think she is some kind of tactical genius or anything, but the team seemed to play hard for her, and that is a refreshing change!
Wellll…
Couple of things:
1) As I kept banging on, the problem with inferring almost anything from this one is the lack of quality in ACFC. Bad teams make opponents look better. So were the Thorns actually more disciplined and organized? (The two concessions from very low xG attempts suggest “not very”) Or was ACFC just that bad? And
2) It’s damn near impossible to separate out the effect of Ken/Lowdon from #1. DID the squad play harder? Or did they play ACFC, which made the easy stuff look even easier? And how much did Lowdon do? Was she just there to be a warm body and execute Ken’s “plan”? No way to tell.
I’d be fine if the FO yanked Ken for her; I don’t think he’s the right answer.
But I also don’t think this one tells us whether SHE is the right answer, either.
Thanks for the write-up – excellent as always. Some thoughts:
* A road point without Smith, after a string of losses, if okay with me. I was mad during the game when we gave up the second goal and dropped two points, but in retrospect a draw on the road without our star is okay. Not good, but okay. I mean, I’m still mad we dropped those points – ACFC should have been easy pickings – but not *as* mad as before.
* Weaver’s per-minute PMRs are nearly identical for the two halves. She played only ~15 minutes in the second half, a third as much as the first half, and her second-half PMR was very nearly a third of her first-half one. I didn’t see her slowing down, so I think they pulled her purely as part of her recovery protocol. I’m expecting her to go 75 or 90 minutes next game.
* I wonder if Coffey has been less effective because other teams are targeting her. Maybe opposing coaches are preparing for Thorns game by training players to not let Coffey have the ball. If this is the case, I hope Coffey can play around it — good players get targeted, and excellent ones find space and play well anyway. Her worse play could be a post-Olympic letdown too, but somehow that doesn’t seem Sam-Coffey-like.
* I’m with you on Arnold. Her mistake on the second goal – and it was bad one – isn’t that she failed to catch it, it’s that she put the ball into a supremely dangerous place, a yard in front of goal. No keeper should EVER do that.
* In the bigger picture, it seems like we keep collecting a bunch of “okay” keepers, when instead what we need is one “excellent” one. Is KK bad at judging keepers? That would be odd for a former keeper, but who knows. Is she just going off Olympic performance, where Arnold was excellent in a shootout? That’s poor judgement, since the data set is too small. Is she relying on advice from an Australian assistant coach, who maybe rates their national-team keeper too highly? Rating your national-team players too highly kinda fits with KK’s MO….
* Two forwards stacked on top of each other in the passing diagram could just be a reflection of the averaging. If Weaver and Moultrie are exchanging sides from time to time – and I do remember Weaver over on the right at least some – then their “average positions” will be on top of each other when in fact they were well separated throughout. I don’t remember them trying to occupy the same space (like, running into each other) during the game.
* On that potential Weaver offside– That’s not quite the right image to judge offside. It doesn’t matter where Weaver was when the ball was passed to Müller, just where Müller was then (clearly onside). The more important decision was where Weaver was when Müller passed to her. On the latter pass, it did indeed look to me like Weaver was a tad offside, *but there was no definitive camera angle.* The side camera closest to the play had an obstructed view at the instant of the pass – Weaver’s head is hiding the foot of the last ACFC defender – and the camera was also a bit behind the play, messing with the angle and making Weaver look more offside than she was. The VAR people undoubtedly know this and maybe they were reluctant to call it from that angle. Also, the view from the camera behind the goal was also just barely ambiguous. I think it was a case of “VAR isn’t definitive, so go with the on-field call”… which, luckily for us, was “onside.” But I think we got away with one there.
So, in order:
1) I’m still irked. This wasn’t fucking rocket science, or Orlando. Late lead, stay disciplined, low block, heads on a swivel, ball-side-goal-side to force poor chances. We didn’t do that, and conceded. That’s not what quality teams do, suggesting that we’re still…not.
2) My guess is you’re right. I didn’t see her visibly tiring, so it’s “minutes restriction” by the physios. We’ll see if it is extended in San Diego.
3) I don’t see that. Coffey’s distribution pattern looks fairly similar to her earlier ones (and compare it to Fleming’s for this game, who was much more of an #8). It’s her positioning, and her passing targets; she’s lying deeper and passing wide, back, and forward mostly to her #10. She did get pressed in LA, but that was more a case that both sides WERE pressing.
I’m not sure I buy the “conspiracy theory”. But the metrics show that Coffey isn’t playing forward nearly as much…
4) Arnold was a panic-buy, I think. Hogan’s April was a disaster, for some reason the staff didn’t rate Alvarado, and everyone else was a rookie or pregnant, and Arnold had made big noise at the WC and was available.
She is what she is and I can’t imagine if LeBlanc didn’t know that SOMEone in the club knew and told her; I blame the FO not so much for overrating her but for touting her as a Big Signing. I don’t really know if they thought she really was, or just wanted to shut the carping up “See! We ARE doing something!”
And we’ve NEVER really had an outstanding keeper other than Franch in 2016 and 2017. Even her final seasons she had slipped to “average or a little better”. Frankly those sorts of keepers are really, really rare. Kailen Sheridan at her peak. Naeher, Hope Solo, Angerer at theirs. Berger. I’d guess there’s maybe half a dozen or so truly at the top level at any time. So it’s not so much LeBlanc as it is “keepers”; the best go where they get big $$$, and that isn’t (or hasn’t been) here.
5) It just points up the trouble with Ken formations; they don’t work the way he wants them to. Sinc was set up as a dual #9…but she can’t play that way; she has to drop to gain possession. And did, successfully. But that forced Moultrie and Fleming to push up. Luckily they did and brought the energy to do so.
6) Good point. I’m of the pre-“offside position” era and forget that the non-receiving player doesn’t matter anymore. The view from behind the goal suggested that Weaver was at least close to offside on Muller’s service. S’okay; I’ll take it.
I went and looked at the second screenshot (and replaced the original with the correct one) and…yeah. Maybe. A toe..?
Like I said, tho; I’ll take it. Encarnacion cut us more slack than that, so I’m fine.