The Thorns Prediction Game: MD 26 – POR v HOU (and an explanation)

First, a quick digression on the whole “Where’s TFC: this week?” question.

I set the VCR. I know I did; checked it several times before kickoff last Saturday, knowing I wouldn’t be back to the house in time to turn the match on at 1pm. When I turned on the TV, though…no recording.

I have been checking the NWSL+ site all week, hoping for a replay. Nothing. I’ve been haunting ABell’s connection over at MajesticG24, too. Nothing there. The match window at the NWSL site has a “watch replay” button, but it just leads you to some sort of generic Ion website that doesn’t offer replays of any sort.

So, well…fuck. Majestic saved my dumb ass last time, but not this. So all I can do is rely on Carlisle-sensei’a observations:

Here’s Chris Henderson, with a similarly ugly assessment of the Pride:

It’s the “post-shot xG” (Henderson uses the term “xG on target (xGOT)” but same diff) that’s so surprising-in-a-good-way. Having dropped points because they couldn’t finish from good positions, in Orlando the Thorns squad went the other way; got almost four to five goals-worth (depends on how much OPTA weighted Wilson’s spot kick) of good chances from only about 3xG.

Watching the second half, though, my thought was that until the Weaver goal at 74′ the match looked very much less than the lopsided scoreline makes it look in hindsight. Sofascore pointed out how much of the ball Orlando got after the Wilson PK.

That’s pretty scary if you’re worried about the Thorns backline (which I usually am), but to their credit the DMs and backs very much kept a collar on Barbara Banda; three shots (one blocked, one off target) and one dangerous close-range cross in the 50th minute that was intercepted.

Here’s Carlisle with the passing. Portland:

And Orlando:

Fair enough; the bottom line is that of the two clubs that ran out (with defensive issues and dangerous strikers) one contained the other’s and held up (enough) in back while the other didn’t.

And the one that did was the one that really needed – and got – the points. So, good for them, and us.

Our punters were obviously as nervous about this match as I was. Only Dave called the result, and no one got Lemos as the Orlando scorer. All three got Wilson as one of ours, and Irene got Perry as the first yellow card (young JP is quite the card magnet…) as well as the fun points for the “axes for two, breakfast for one” tale of Banda v Wilson

So here’s where we stand after Matchday 25:

Player	Latest Round	Cumulative Score
PTFC Dave	4	28
Ken	1	32
Barcasiempre	0	23
Mi-So-Thorny	0	4
Irene	4	6

How all this works:
Before the upcoming Thorns match add a comment to this post. As your first line, put your predicted result, for example 1-3 Thorns.

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:
Wilson (Fleming)
Reyes (Free kick)
Moultrie (Unassisted)
Rodman (PK)

Next, name the first yellow card recipient: Sophia Wilson
Then a red card. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.) Trinity Rodman for mimicking mooning the referee after getting an undeserved yellow.

Make your fun prediction,and give a “thumbs up” to anybody else’s prediction that tickles your fancy: “Ryan gets the start against her former club. She gets through 70 minutes without fouling her former teammates until she can’t take it anymore. She pushes over Perry, gives Muller a wedgie, gives Arnold a noogie, then flips off the Riveters and runs out of Providence Park, never to be seen again. The ref issues a red card, which she later contests, and loses.” (h/t to ABell4)

Scoring:
· Correct score: 5 points
· Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
· Each clean sheet: 2 points
· Each goal-scorer: 1 point
· Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
· Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
· Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
· A player with a red card: 1 point
· Most liked/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):
Comments must be posted before kickoff, but you can edit or amend an earlier prediction right up to the starting whistle.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. No crazy scores just to pad out your odds of getting goals and assists.

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you predict the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal, for example, you say Castellanos scores from a Moultrie assist and that is exactly what happens.

Be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = dead ball, not in run of play. FK includes olimpicos from corners. No entry means unassisted.

First yellow means just that: the player – the first player and only the first player – who receives a yellow. Not the first player on each team. If more than one player listed as “first yellow” all the punter’s predictions for that category will be voided.

Saturday the visitors are that perennial also- (or “didn’t-” or “couldn’t-“) ran the Houston Dash slither into town for the away fixture of their season series (the home game is Decision Day) with Portland.

Houston has been very…Houston this season, which is to say “supremely blah”. 12th of 16, 29 points, 8-5-12, 31GF, 35GA.

The Orange don’t usually score a lot. They ran wild on Chicago (5-nil) back in August, and hung four on Louisville back in April, but most of their matches are 2-3, 2-1, or 1-0 kinds of scorelines. They also kind of score by committee; Kit Rader is their gun with 9 plus an assist. Kiki van Zanten has 5 and 1, Kate Faase has 4 (and 2), Maggie Graham and Lili Ullmark have 3 each, though Graham has 2 assists and Ullmark three.

In back Houston is likewise pretty meh. Not terrific; Denver’s 1-4 whipping back in May is an outlier, but as their record shows, they’ve lost a lot, and particularly down the stretch. Here’s their last five games (beginning right after the Chicago win):
8/23 – 1-nil loss at Bay FC
8/30 – 1-nil loss in Seattle
9/6 – 3-1 loss in Orlando
9/12 – 1-2 loss at home to Utah
9/20 – 1-2 win in Boston

What’s kind of interesting is that Houston may well be the least “can-y” of the tomato cans on what’s left of the Thorns’ schedule. The other non-Carolina opponents are Bay FC (13th) and Boston (14th), so over the next month or so we work our way slowly down the table until The Damned Courage show up near the end of October.

That should be a terrific opportunity to nick some points. But, as Chicago taught us, that’s never a sure thing with this outfit.