Thorns FC: Point taken, points lost

I don’t think that the Chicago Red Stars intended to bunker up last weekend. I think the poor schmoes just hoped to stop the bleeding; after all, they’d just shipped 20 goals in the previous four games, including back-to-back 6-nil stompings. 6-1 in Denver, then an appalling 0-6 hiding at home.

But the effect wasn’t much different. Here’s Carlisle-sensei’s “xG map”:

“They defended the hell out of the most dangerous areas of the box, didn’t buckle after an early own goal, and kept it close until they found an opportunity from a set piece.”

Whether the Stars were truly bunkered or just dropping into a lowish block to grind, the problem for the Vilahamn Thorns was the same; breakdown the block and score a lot. And that, in turn, was a problem, since Portland’s scoring had dried up like a September puddle after a sun-shower; five goals in the preceding four games, from
Penalty (Washington here, loss)
Penalty (Gotham away, draw)
Run of play (Denver here, win)
Run of play x 2 (Orlando here, win)

Okay, so. There’s basically two ways to pull open a low block/bunker. Actually, here’s Carlisle-sensei at length; it’s worth the read

One way is, as sensei says, to move the ball quickly, shift the point of attack, get the defenders moving until holes open up, and then have the ball in the right position to drive to space and on goal. That’s a difficult task to perform, and it requires an exacting combination of rapidity of thought, great anticipation of teammates’ actions and familiarity of interplay through training, tidy passing and incisive movement, and, to some degree, an opponent willing to provide those openings in response.

That level of tika-taka possession attack is…not this Thorns squad, and not in this management team’s skillset.

All season. Hell, all last season-and-three-quarters, we’ve been complaining here about how the Thorns’ dilemma is that despite having a basketful of talented forwards the “attack” is, all too often, one or two individuals freelancing, going hero-ball direct, or just Sophia Wilson doing Wilson things.

This squad’s attacking movement tends to be deliberate, and tends to try and pry open the opponent by attacking the same area seriatim rather than by quick passes and runs to pull defenders out of position. Here’s a perfect example starting with a nice right-flank attack by Nina Nijstad driving up the touchline into the deep right corner…

Nijstad turns and knocks a low cross in to Sophia Wilson, but Wilson’s touch – as it was for much of the match – let her down; the ball clanks off her foot

But luckily for Portland, right to Pietra Tordin, who’s offscreen to the right. But notice something? Yeah; there’s four Thorns attacking the same narrow rightside channel, which is how Chicago is able to defend this attack in strength. Only Caiya Hanks is free outside the sabo dam of black shirts, and after Nijstad has passed inside the lack of space will make it difficult for a Thorns teammate to pick her out.

Again; notice how overloaded the Thorns attack is? If one of the ways to pick apart a low block isto “…move the ball quickly, shift the point of attack, get the defenders moving until holes open up…” this traffic jam isn’t going to do that.

Okay, but at least possession stays with Portland! Tordin tees up the ball to have a crack from 18 yards and…

…unsurprisingly bangs the shot off one of the Chicago defenders. Having a go from distance isn’t necessarily a poor decision if it can draw the defense out to close the shooters down, but in this case? Unless Tordin’s shot is full of good luck and threads through the forest of legs the block is the most likely outcome.

The rebound zips out to a charging Carolyn Calzada, who fires right at Alyssa Naeher…

…and the attack is over. Again, notice where all the pink shirts are? Nobody’s spreading the defense; instead, everyone is packed into the top corner of the 18 except for Hanks, who hasn’t been “…moving until holes open up…” but has parked in one spot out front of the six-yard box since the initial cross went in.

Which brings up the second, the “other way”, to break down a low block/bunker; got direct, either over the top of it to a runner, or with a deep cross for a target forward to head on frame (call it the “Abby Wambach”version) or knock down for an oncoming teammate.

And Portland sure tried that, putting in a total of 26 crosses.

Of those 17 were from open play; 14 failed to connect. Of the three that did, one was a 64th minute Wilson service that dimed Reilyn Turner for a solid header attempt, but Naeher was well positioned and hoovered it up. The second was Marie Muller’s 82nd minute delivery to Nijstad. Good service, but Nijstad fired way over. The final was a Vignola service that Tordin headed off-target wide right in the 84th minute.

From set plays? Nine including eight corner kicks and a single free kick. Only two connected with a teammate; both from corner kicks, and we’ll talk about them when we get to that section.

The Thorns don’t really have a target forward (or a target centerback (hi, Sonny!) or midfielder (hi, Lindsey!) for that matter), or a player who can do the other “Wambach thing” and receive with her back to goal and knock down for a teammate.

Wilson can run under long service, but Chicago keyed on her all match. On top of that, well..we’ll talk about it in her comment.

We’ve seen this before, right? “Failure to put together a coordinated attack and relying on freelancing or hero-ball (plus failure to convert) and a defensive breakdown”.

Thought you’d recognize that. Yep. SSDD.

Short Passes

Here’s the Sofascore “momentum” plot:

Okay, yeah. Chicago sitting deep and countering when possible. Portland throwing stuff against the wall but nothing sticking except the lone own-ish goal (honestly? Tordin made that thing happen, and deserved the credit) and the Stars getting lucky at the death. Well, shit.

Possession; Portland 56%, Chicago 44%. Passing? Portland 85% completion of 478 passes, Chicago 81% of 374.

Here’s the passing plots, starting with Portland.

Can argue with that. Just not good enough against a poor opponent.

Chicago, and it’s worth reading the comments in full:

Chicago, as we discussed in the Prediction Game thread, has descended into some very dark places. Some of it was Arnim Whistler’s cheap-ass chintziness and his hide-the-abuser games with Rory Dames. But the people who bought the club from Whistler have run the joint like a Trump casino. The Stars, Red or otherwise, have been, along with Houston, one of the NWSL’s basket cases for years.

So badly that a last-minute road point feels like winning the Shield for these poor jokers. And that’s pretty sad. Both for them, and us.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32
Louisville – Away (L)	25
Angel City – Home (D)	No data
Bay FC – Home (W)	33
Kansas City – Away (L)	29
Utah – Home (D)	23
Louisville – Home (W)	21
Seattle – Away (L)	33
Denver – Away (L)	33
Gotham – Home (D)	23
Utah – Away (L)	17
Boston – Away (W)	17
Orlando – Home (W)	24
Denver – Home (W)	19
Gotham – Away (D)	21
Washington – Home (L)	23
Chicago – Home (D)	18

Turnovers weren’t really “the problem” (and Chicago coughed up 20, 12 in the first half, eight after the break). Portland went the other way; 11 before, seven after.

Fleming was the Biggest Loser with four. Wilson turned over three times (which doesn’t count her forced turnovers, which add another four or five…). Several others with a brace.

The only real awshit was Fleming’s 28th minute giveaway pass that set up Jenna Bike on the doorstep, but luckily for Fleming Bike fired right at Arnold.

Press!

Twenty-third match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Let’s start with the raw numbers.

Match time	Stars presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-45+1′	29(21) (72.4%)	36(23) (63.8%)
45-90+8′	13(6) (46.1%)	18(10) (55.5%)
Match Total	42(27) (64.2%)	54(33) (61.1%)

This was kind of a pressing oddball.

As usual, Portland’s “high press” was Wilson; and she did work hard, as usual. Occasionally Tordin (or Nijstad, or Fleming) would join in, but usually if Chicago rounded (or passed) Wilson it was not too tricky to get the ball into Portland’s final third. Once there the hapless Stars couldn’t do anything with it…but, then again, neither did Portland.

Chicago sat in – the Stars pressed in Portland’s defensive third only 14 times out of 42 presses compared to Portland’s 22 of 54 – but was remarkably effective in midfield, breaking down Portland’s transition nearly as often as the reverse – both teams’ first half pressing forced seven turnovers. After halftime Donaldson (or whoever) pretty much gave up and just concentrated on defending deep and countering. Before you laugh, look at the scoreline.

My thoughts:
1) This match wasn’t really about pressing.
2) If it had been, the honors came away pretty even, which for the sixth place team is much more embarrassing than for the Wooden Spoon.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)
Louisville Away (L)	101(70) (69.5%)	62(35) (56.4%)
Angel City Home (D)	No data	No data
Bay FC Home (W)	59(34) (57.6%)	59(37) (62.7%)
Kansas City Away (L)	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)
Utah Home (D)	99(55) (55.5%)	60(31) (51.6%)
Louisville Home (W)	55(31) (56.3%)	28(13) (46.4%)
Seattle Away (L)	67(46) (68.6%)	66(35) (53.0%)
Denver Away (L)	46(24) (52.1%)	53(27) (50.9%)
Gotham Home (D)	60(32) (53.3%)	58(86) (67.4%)
Utah Away (L)	86(61) (70.9%)	70(38) (54.2%)
Boston Away (W)	84(55) (65.4%)	83(44) (53%)
Orlando Home (w)	94(57) (60.6%)	87(55 (63.2%)
Denver Home (W)	87(55) (63.2%)	60(32) (53.3%)
Gotham Away (D)	42(34) (80.9%)	90(49) (54.4%)
Washington Home (L)	43(30) (69.7%)	64(35) (54.6%)
Chicago Home (D)	42(27) (64.2%)	54(33) (61.1%)

Corner Kicks

Eight. All but one long, six first half, two second.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
4′	Fleming	Long	Naeher went up strong and boxed clear. Vignola recycled in to Wilson, who shot way over.
11′	Fleming	Long	Into the scrum and cleared but Vignola again recycled to begin a good attack that ended with a Reyes lead pass that Turner put damn close but was deflected into side netting for another corner.
12′	Fleming	Short	To Fleming, who fed Tordin’s attack to the byline. Tordin’s cross found Wilson (shot blocked!) rolled to Reyes (shot blocked!) out for yet another corner.
13′	Fleming	Long	Naeher got up and claimed it..
22′	Fleming	Long	Cleared but right back to Fleming. Tordin’s run met Fleming’s service and skipped into the goal, but a Star got a touch and was dinged for an OG, which was bullshit.
45′	Fleming	Long	Into the scrum and cleared.
46′	Fleming	Long	Cleared, recycled, cleared again for a Portland throw-in.
90+6′	Fleming	Long	Tordin rose above the scrum to head to Harvey at the back post. Harvey’s looping header was cleared and the final whistle blew.

As always, I’d love to see some set plays. But, still…a goal off a recycle, and two other dangerous attacks. That’s good. Other than Tordin’s, though, no finishing. That’s bad.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+7/-4 : +6/-4 : +13/-8) The Slump continues. Focus on the minuses; that’s not the usual Wilson; poor shooting, heavy touches, running into traffic and getting swarmed and dispossessed. Wilson has been badly off-form since midseason, and I’d love to hear what’s playing on heavy rotation inside her head.

When Wilson isn’t going, neither is the Thorns’ attack. That’s not the problem, but it’s a problem.

Weaver (45′ – +2/-2) Like Shelley’s Ozymandias, beyond the colossal wreck that is this season’s Morgan Weaver, boundless and bare the lone and level pitch stretches far away.

We knew her injury was a bad one, and her rehab long and difficult. What we still don’t know is whether there’s any remnant ember, any fleeting coal, left of the raging fire that this young woman brought to her sport.

If there is none – and nothing has revealed itself since her return – it will be both a tragic loss to the game and a personal grief to me. I loved the ferocity Weaver brought, and, if it’s gone, I will mourn it’s loss.

Hanks (45′ – +9/-1) Her rehab partner, though, burns like a balefire in the night. Attacking with pace, pressing, just being a nuisance to her enemies…Hanks’ return helps heal my heart. Go, Caiya. Go. Go. Go.

Tordin (+8/-2 : +4/-1 : +12/-3) Should have gotten credit for the goal, and all her usual hard work. The connection between Tordin and Wilson has suffered as Wilson’s form has suffered. And, as always, the managerial failure to somehow craft a profitable sum of such noble individual parts like Tordin, Hanks, Wilson, Turner…well, we’ll get there in a bit.

Turner (80′ – +5/-1 : +4/-1 : +9/-2) Still rusty from the long layoff and still suffering from the coaching issue(s) that have kept the attacking players disconnected and lacking understanding. The woman has skills, and the right ideas, but without an actual tactical plan that’s just motion without direction. Are you reading this, coach?

Harvey (10′ – +0/-2) Too late to add anything in attack, and was the victim of Wood’s jump that nicked the equalizer, so the point of bringing her on kinda eludes me. WTF, coach?

Fleming (+9/-6 : +9/-4 : +18/-10) The usual hard work, but with a lot of errors, including turnovers (6 of her minuses), free kick deliveries (three more) and the usual lack of scoring threats. Not at fault for the loss, but not an “on” day for Fleming, which meant that it was…

Nijstad (+5/-2 : +5/-1 : +10/-3) Nijstad’s turn! Remember how that works? Here’s Sofascore’s defensive ratings:

Nijstad was also a tick more productive going forward, so.

I really like this player. Not as in “Hina-san like”, but I’m pleasantly surprised and hope she can be part of a better squad in the future.

Vignola (90′ – +7/-1 : +8/-1 : +15/-2) Damn good work. Came off with a late knock, but until then M.A. hadn’t shown any of the dreaded “Sixty Minute Fade” that had been so troubling the previous to matches. Chicago got no joy out of her, which was, or should have been, the standard for the backline against this fucking tomato can.

McKenzie (~8′ – no rating)

Hiatt (+4/-1 : +7/-3 : +11/-4) It’s hard to be objective about this match, as the Vignola comment highlights. In general the backline was decent; low bar, Chicago, tire fire/tomato can, but still…the damn Stars nicked a setpiece goal at the death and scampered away with a point, so 90+2 minutes of clean sheet is kinda worthless when you look at it that way…

Calzada (+7/-1 : +0/-4 : +7/-5) Fell apart late, including a horrific one-v-one against Michelle Alozie where the Nigerian spun Calzada, dumped her on her ass and then, with only Arnold to beat, did them both a huge solid by firing right into Arnold’s center of mass.

That’s not just ‘rookie embarrassing”, that’s “you do this for a living?” embarrassing.

Reyes (80′ – +4/-6 : +3/-1 : +7/-7) And speaking of embarrassing. How long on the bench does it take for a veteran fullback to forget how to fullback? Asking for a friend.

Tightened up after the break. Still. Reyes has been a very good starting fullback for seasons now. This is either an indictment of her headspace or of her coaching. Whichever is the issue, she needs to get her shit together soon. That said…

Muller (10′ – +1/-2) was on the pitch when the Stars fell, so she gets the “hockey minus”. Frankly if Muller isn’t good enough to start at fullback I’m not sure what value she has.

Arnold (+1/-0 : +2/-0 : +3/-0) Good take in the 14th minute, big saves in the 61st and 86th. Not really at fault on the concession. That’s about as decent a match as a “goalkeeper whose squad has to settle for a home point against the fucking Wooden Spoon” can say.

Coach Vilahamn: Okay, sorry, but I think it’s time to say “Avsked”

Here’s the thing.

Vilahamn hasn’t been awful. He’s doing, well, about the same mediocre-ish work his predecessor did (there’s a Stumptown trope going around calling him “New Rob” which is distressingly on-point).

I’ve been willing to be patient because the owners (and, presumably, GM Jeff Agoos) screwed his hiring pooch so hard. You don’t walk into the orderly room Monday morning and lead the company on to Omaha Beach the following day.

But he’s now had three-quarters of a season to craft the squad he wants, and has done pretty much…well, nothing much more than Gale managed, and this is with many of the players Ken was missing returning to the pitch (or form, except for Weaver).

My reason for pushing for his defenestration now is:
1) Let’s not repeat the “old HC doesn’t get canned until after the playoffs so the new HC doesn’t get hired until the day before Opening Day.” thing.
2) This will let the FO start a legitimate earth-and-sea-sweeping coaching hunt begin with the squad in playing form for the prospective hires to watch and plan, and
3) Lowdon can take over as interim and get her shot over the final six games. If she crashes and burns? Okay, then we know. If not? Hey, maybe her hat is in the ring for next season. At the very least, maybe she even continues into next season as the coaching search continues. Give the woman her shot!

I get it. No club wants, and probably no players want, to give up the hope of getting hot and making a deep playoff run even from sixth or seventh or eighth.

Which, in all honesty, is where this club will likely end up in November.

But my feeling is this; why?

We’ve seen this movie before, and it ends up in tears.

Let’s take the hit, make the hard choice, cry today in hopes of a shining morning tomorrow.

Until then, here’s some Uncle Lorne and L’il Gigi cuteness.