Thorns FC: Things Fall Apart

We’ll have to see what happens now, but it’s hard not to be concerned that the Thorns’ 1-2 loss to Washington might be a season turning-point, and not in a direction that heads the squad to the broad, sunlit uplands of home playoffs and league championships.

Portland came into the match in fifth, but only two points behind second-place Washington, and a win – combined with some other favorable results – would have jumped the Thorns into second and only four points adrift of a league-leading Gotham that had already dropped a 3-nil clanger at Denver that weekend.

And for about an hour it looked very possible.

Portland got an early goal off a clumsy foul on Nina Nijstad by Monique N’gock and a Sophia Wilson penalty conversion, and then settled in to stone the Spirit.

Washington found space along the touchlines but couldn’t really work the ball inside. The Spirit nicked a corner in the 35th minute (which came to nothing). The first Washington shot of the match came in the 42nd minute (Tara Rudd, off target), the second at the stroke of halftime (Esme Morgan, right at Mackenzie Arnold). (Some) possession with(out much) purpose; the Thorns defending looked composed, and the Spirit looked baffled.

Immediately after the restart Portland damn near doubled their lead.

Beginning with an interception by M.A. Vignola the ball went from there to Reilyn Turner then to Pietra Tordin then to Nina Nijstad inside Washington’s 18-yard box. There the Spirit defense solidified, but the tackle away from Nijstad skipped back to Tordin, who faced up and cranked off a point-blank shot…that clanked off the near post.

Wilson fired the ensuing corner kick clearance over the crossbar. And then…

I’m not sure how else to describe it.

Adrián González had made a couple of minor and one major change at halftime; he swapped Trinity Rodman and Rose Kouassi from left to right sides. Up to that point Carolyn Calzada had done a decent job of putting a collar on Rodman, and Vignola had sat on Kouassi to the extent that anyone can put a bag on Kouassi.

I’m not sure whether those adjustments were the big problem, though, as much as something I’d noticed in Gotham:

“Vignola (+4/-1 : +4/-1 : +8/-5) When Kerr skinned her like a practice cone in the 91st minute I was ready to scream at Vilahamn that M.A. had been looking gassed for the previous ten minutes or so and needed relief…upon which time I realized that one of the problems with this roster is that there really isn’t any relief.”

This match Vignola started looking cooked before the hour. She screwed up switching off pressing with Jayden Perry in the 49th minute to give Kouassi a free crack (over the crossbar…). Calzada got skinned by Rodman six minutes later (but Rodman was offside…). By the 56th minute both fullbacks had dropped into a defensive crouch inside their own 18-yard-box, ceding the whole wide spaces – between the edges of the 18 and the touchlines – to Washington.

So when Sam Hiatt hacked Gabrielle Carle down inside the box and Rudd buried the penalty shot it was both unsurprising and frustrating to watch the Thorns “defending” just clump up and allow Washington chance after chance.

Rodman skinned Calzada and fired right at Arnold in the 62nd minute.

Two minutes later Kouassi stripped Wilson, fed Rodman, but Perry blocked Rodman’s shot.

In the 65th minute Vignola passed directly to Rodman, who drove at goal, crossed in to Sofia Cantore…but Perry tackled Cantore and Arnold scooped up the loose ball.

Vignola and Caiya Hanks failed to hand off marking Paige Metayer, who attacked the empty space and crossed in to Carle with both Hiatt and Perry marking space, but though Carle’s 73rd minute header had pace it went right to Arnold.

Finally, in the 79th minute, Rodman controlled a recycled corner kick, shook off Vignola, crossed inside to Melissa Bethi who, untroubled by the space-marking Thorns centerbacks, potted the matchwinner.

I can’t recall when I last saw a Thorns squad do this; lose much (or nearly all) of their composure, scrambling desperately and disconnectedly while their opponents calmly picked them apart. It felt like Portland – the backline, surely, but the whole side more or less – was panicking, feeling the match slipping away and lacking ideas of how to control or combat that.

If this had been, say, a Portland Fire game, this would have been the moment at the beginning of the final period when the visitors were on a 10-2 run, making every play, and the Fire looking like shit on a shingle. You’d damn well expect Coach Serama to call a time out, make some adjustments but mostly to just calm the squad the fuck down and reassert some cohesion, regain some control, and claw the game back.

You’d have been understandably pissed if he didn’t.

Were there other factors?

Yes.

Missed opportunities? Ohhellyes. Tordin had three setpiece deliveries from within 20-22 yards. Two in each half were hit directly at Sandy McIver, the third curled just wide. The 46th minute post. Wilson with a doorstep rifle that was blocked wide in the 83rd minute. Hanks with a breakaway in second half stoppage time that was well defended. A Perry header off the 84th minute corner kick that went off the back post.

And the handball. Oh, my, the handball.

in the 68th minute, after a promising buildup, Nijstad hammered a shot that appeared to be deflected by a Washington defender’s arm.

The arm was close to the body…but not that close. It sure looked as though it made her “larger”. The Thorns players and coaches immediately howled for a penalty. The CBS announcers were quick to pronounce it a penalty-worthy (or, at least, long-VAR-review-worthy…) shout. The fans in the north end stands sure as hell bellowed that it should be.

It wasn’t.

And neither was the hoped-for shove up the table. Monday morning it was Washington solidly in second, two points behind Gotham. Three other clubs – Utah, Carolina, and San Diego – jumped Portland by a point, dropping the Thorns to sixth.

What now?

We’ll discuss that at the end of the piece.

Short Passes

Here’s the Sofascore “momentum” plot:

That’s pretty much what we described. Portland in control into about the hour’s mark. Then the Washington PK, and they bum-rush the home side until they take the lead, then they sit in and skate away with all the points. Fairly even except for the post-PK Portland collapse and second concession.

Possession reflects that, too; Portland 45%, Washington 55%. Passing? Portland 79% completion of 322 passes, Washington, 82% of 402.

Here;s Carlisle-sensei’s “xG map” graphic:

Notice that something like 6 of Washington’s 10 shots are within the 18, and directly in front of goal. Other than Wilson’s PK and Tordin’s post? The Thorns scatterplot is all over the place. Hmm.

Here’s the passing plots, starting with Portland.

Yep.

Here’s Washington:

That’s hard for me, a Portland supporter, to stomach. It’s basically saying that Washington, playing Washington’s current style, is better than Portland playing Portland’s style. That if we meet them again in the playoffs they can do that again. That the Portland win on Opening Day was just a freakish one-off, a visitor getting lucky catching the Spirit before they figured out “how they play”.

But goddamn if that sure didn’t look like what we saw.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Washington – Away (W)	26
Seattle – Home (W)	11
San Diego – Away (L)	29
Kansas City – Home (W)	23
North Carolina – Away (D)	25
Angel City – Away (W)	22
San Diego – Home (W)	17
Chicago – Away (W)	32
Louisville – Away (L)	25
Angel City – Home (D)	No data
Bay FC – Home (W)	33
Kansas City – Away (L)	29
Utah – Home (D)	23
Louisville – Home (W)	21
Seattle – Away (L)	33
Denver – Away (L)	33
Gotham – Home (D)	23
Utah – Away (L)	17
Boston – Away (W)	17
Orlando – Home (W)	24
Denver – Home (W)	19
Gotham – Away (D)	21
Washington – Home (L)	23

Deceiving, because Washington was exceptionally tidy, losing only 8, divided between halves, 3 before the break and 5 after. Portland’s turnovers track with their delamination; 6 in the first half, a total of 11 before the hour, then 12 in the final thirty minutes.

Two defenders shared the Biggest Loser gongs; Perry and Vignola with four-and-a-half each. Wilson coughed up three-and-a-half, Hiatt three.

Several were pretty sketchy, especially Vignola’s 65th minute hairball, but Washington booted the chances they got from the worst of them, so they let Portland off the turnover hook.

Press!

Twenty-second match tracking the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Let’s start with the raw numbers.

Match time	Spirit presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-45+1′	22(15) (68.1%)	41(21) (51.2%)
45-90+8′	21(15) (71.4%)	23(14) (60.8%)
Match Total	43(30) (69.7%)	64(35) (54.6%)

So Portland started out pressing hard. Not high; of the 41 first half presses I recorded only 14 were in Washington’s defensive third, and almost all of those were the usual “Wilson rides alone” hero-pressing that was typically not very successful – only 4 of the 14, and only one of those forced a ball turnover.

If the Spirit buildup evaded Wilson the visitors then usually went outside to the touchlines, where the notional outside mids in the notional 4-1-4-1 were typically evaded, not that surprising when you consider that they were usually Turner and Morgan Weaver or Caiya Hanks, wingers/forwards instead of actual #8 midfielders.

Washington was less aggressive but more successful. particularly late in the match when Portland got desperate, hasty, and sloppy. Washington doesn’t seem to press a lot (which might have something to do with N’gock at central midfield; she seems pretty attacking-minded for a CDM) but the Spirit are skillful in possession, and that shades into good tackling and marking (and pressing).

My thoughts:
1) I don’t see the press from either side as decisive, but,
2) The Portland press seems poorly thought out, and especially for a match where the opponent is using the wide areas and the Thorns aren’t set up to defend against that. The 4-1-4-1 “Wilson up, everyone else back” is almost tailored to make that attack pass around them.
3) Washington took advantage of Portland’s a) failure to convert their chances, and then their b) defensive (and almost team-wide) collapse.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Washington Away (W)	40(27) (67.5%)	69(41) (59.4%)
Seattle Home (W)	61(30) (49.1%)	35(20) (57.1%)
San Diego Away (L)	33(22) (66.6%)	88(40) (45.4%)
Kansas City Home (W)	26(15) (57.6%)	43(23) (53.4%)
North Carolina Away (D)	35(22) (62.8%)	56(26) (46.4%)
Angel City Away (W)	52(37) (71.1%)	61(32) (52.4%)
San Diego Home (W)	45(71) (63.3%)	45(80) (56.2%)
Chicago Away (W)	68(34) (50%)	97(51) (52.2%)
Louisville Away (L)	101(70) (69.5%)	62(35) (56.4%)
Angel City Home (D)	No data	No data
Bay FC Home (W)	59(34) (57.6%)	59(37) (62.7%)
Kansas City Away (L)	52(29) (55.7%)	34(20) (58.8%)
Utah Home (D)	99(55) (55.5%)	60(31) (51.6%)
Louisville Home (W)	55(31) (56.3%)	28(13) (46.4%)
Seattle Away (L)	67(46) (68.6%)	66(35) (53.0%)
Denver Away (L)	46(24) (52.1%)	53(27) (50.9%)
Gotham Home (D)	60(32) (53.3%)	58(86) (67.4%)
Utah Away (L)	86(61) (70.9%)	70(38) (54.2%)
Boston Away (W)	84(55) (65.4%)	83(44) (53%)
Orlando Home (w)	94(57) (60.6%)	87(55 (63.2%)
Denver Home (W)	87(55) (63.2%)	60(32) (53.3%)
Gotham Away (D)	42(34) (80.9%)	90(49) (54.4%)
Washington Home (L)	43(30) (69.7%)	64(35) (54.6%)

Corner Kicks

Five. All long, two first half, three second.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
11′	Fleming	Long	Into the scrum, headed up in the air, and McIver went up to take.
29′	Fleming	Long	Found Calzada’s head, but her header went well wide left.
47′	Fleming	Long	Into the scrum, cleared out but only to Wilson, who shot poorly over the crossbar.
75′	Fleming	Long	Into the scrum, cleared away and turned over.
84′	Fleming	Long	This time found Perry’s head at the back post, whose header was cleared.

Two headers out of five attempts, but only Calzada’s was even close, and it wasn’t very close. Pretty much nothing.

Player Ratings and Comments

Wilson (+7/-2 : +5/-4 : +12/-6) Troubling. Sank her putt, but other than that? Three other shots, only one on frame (one block, one miss). Twelve progressive passes, only five completed. Only one successful attacking dribble.

A big part of this loss was the straw not stirring the drink.

Weaver (45′ – +4/-0) and Hanks (45′ – +7/-1) Weaver shot over the bar in the first minute then disappeared from my notes. OPTA shows her with no other shots, eight total passes (two completed). No carries. No tackles, blocks, interceptions, clearances, or recoveries. A poor half by her pre-injury standards, and a worrying post-injury outing.

Hanks, on the other hand, had two shots (one blocked), 13 passes (10 completed), two ball recoveries.

I can’t be the only one who imagined Wilson with Hanks running the left channel or up the left touchline and Weaver the right. I understand that fitness is still an issue, but…neither player looks like they understand their roles in the Thorns, and particularly Wilson’s, attack either as individuals or as a team, and to make that more troubling Weaver as an individual was distressingly poor.

Tordin (+7/-0 : +8/-0 : +15/-0) So close! Between the post, the free kicks, and hard work on both sides of the ball, Pietra Tordin continued her so-far terrific season. Wasn’t enough for this one, but not Tordin’s fault. Damn fine work on an otherwise unfortunate day. Well played.

Turner (63′ – +5/-0 : +1/-0 : +6/-0) Showed the rust from her long layoff, as well as troubling lack of connectivity with both the other forwards as well as the DMs. I’m honestly not sure what her role is, and this match clarified nothing.

Muller (27′ – +3/-2) Presumably brought on to add defensive sturdiness. If that was Coach Vilahamn’s intention, as the old knight says after the Evil Nazi drinks from the wrong Grail and dies a hideously noisy melting death, “He chose…poorly”.

Fleming (+5/-1 : +10/-4 : +15/-5) If hard work alone could win matches…sixteen “defensive contributions”, won five of seven tackles and nine of eleven ground duels.

The theme of the defensive midfield this season seems to be “after you, Jess…no, after you, Nina..!” and this time it was Fleming’s turn to be the Beast of Midfield to the extent she could, but…

Nijstad (+8/-0 : +7/-1 : +15/-1) forced the N’gock foul that nicked Portland’s only goal, and was a nuisance to Washington going forward – 8 of her 15 pluses are for some attacking contribution; dribbles, passes, runs, and (if VAR had been kinder) possibly a go-ahead second penalty shout, so had the Spirit been so obliging as to keep ramming their collective heads into the midfield wall the Wilson PK might have stood up. Ah, well…

Calzada (84′ – +3/-0 : =0/-3 : +3/-3) No one in Portland’s backline had an outstanding full 90-minute match. Calzada, though almost as green as the fake Providence Park grass, was the least-bad defender, and had a solid first half in particular. Fell apart after the PK concession, though, like the rest of her unit.

Padelski (6′ – +3/-2) Meh. Nothing of real value, and just a reminder of the old Army maxim, “Never reinforce failure”. Throwing fresh bodies into a unit that has been demoralized and defeated is like trying to reinforce a block of jello by adding bullets to it, and Padelski isn’t a big enough bullet even on the best of occasions.

Hiatt (+0/-0 : +1/-5 : +1/-5) Christ, what a flaming disaster. Fouls on the PK concession, then gets caught loafing about repeatedly trying to figure out what she was supposed to do, including as one of the Washington players she was supposed to be marking scored the winning goal. There’s not enough whiskey in Goose Hollow to drown her sorrows from this dog.

Perry (+5/-0 : +4/-5 : +9/-5) Kind of the same problem as Hiatt only without the really egregious hairballs. At least Perry looked halfway decent until the first concession, which is damning with faint praise if ever I’ve heard it.

Vignola (84′ – +8/-3 : +6/-6 : +14/-9) If Gotham was “Hiatt in 15 seconds”, last weekend Vignola was the Thorns backline in 5 feet 6 inches. Solid first half, progressively worse and worse – gassed? Nursing a knock? What? – as the second half progressed. Same problems she had in Jersey, but this time the opponent spun her like a top and took all the points because, just as against Gotham, her coaches hung her out. Reyes should have gone in by the hour mark at the latest.

Reyes (6′ – +4/-0) Instead we got too little Reyes too late.

I read a lot of fans pissing and moaning about Reyes’ getting dropped from the starting rotation for Calzada/Vignola. Aside from the “WTF can you tell about a fullback from 14 match minutes and change when the opponent is sitting on a lead?” I don’t see enough of these players in full to judge who is the better choice for the XI, and, frankly, what I see is a systemic, unit problem more than an individual player problem (though I’m growing increasingly likely to make an exception for Hiatt).

The bottom line is that someone – and the buck stops with Coach Vilahamn – needs to work on the backline. It’s currently a mess, and that’s costing the squad points at a time when points are badly needed.

Arnold (+0/-0 : +2/-1 : +2/-1) Did poorly on the Rudd penalty, not at fault on the second, and made a couple of huge saves in the 78th and 82nd minutes to keep this thing within reach, so kinda comes out in the wash. Tough loss for the keeper.

Coach Vilahamn: This one really was solidly on the gaffer.

Having started with a promising plan, his opposite number adapted, adjusted, and succeeded while our Swedish sous-chef faffed around and let the match slip out of control, failing to stem his squad’s panic, failing to sub off players – especially Vignola – that were visibly flailing.

Throw in the possibility that he either doesn’t recognize, or isn’t arsed enough to make enough fuss to make his general manager and owners see the centerback problems and make some moves (which is pure guesswork; I have no fucking idea what or whether the FO is trying to lure Naomi Girma here with massive bags of BathalBux or what).

So SSDD; failure to convert (or create) chances on one end, defensive breakdowns on the other. Sigh.

Here’s the thing now, though.

Over the final seven matches the Thorns play only one top-10 team, Carolina here in October. The others?
This coming weekend: Chicago (16th of 16) here
9/19: Orlando (11th) away
9/26: Houston (12th) here
10/3: Boston (14th) here
10/18: Bay FC (15th) away
10/23: The Damned Courage (3rd) here, and
11/1: Houston (probably still 11th/12th) away.

That’s like a license to print money!

I know, I know. “The Thorns play down to their opponents”. But…goddamn. There’s a time to knuckle down and grind out some points, coach. There must be a Swedish saying for “if not now, when?”

We’ve taken the punches. Now it’s time to start bullying some tomato cans.