Thorns FC: Multitudes

¹⁴ Multitudes, multitudes in the valley of decision: for the day of the Lord is near in the valley of decision.

¹⁵ The sun and the moon shall be darkened, and the stars shall withdraw their shining.

¹⁸ And it shall come to pass in that day, that the mountains shall drop down new wine, and the hills shall flow with milk, and all the rivers of Judah shall flow with waters, and a fountain shall come forth out of the house of the Lord, and shall water the valley of Shittim.

Well…okay. None of that actually happened on the valley of decision day here in Portland last weekend.

The closest thing we had to a “Valley of Shittim” was the visiting Houston Dash, who came in off the late-season roller-coaster they’d been riding into Matchday 26 solidly below the red line and without a hope of a playoff payday, having beaten a checked-out Kansas City, barely-playoff caliber San Diego, and hopeless-sad-act Chicago, drawn a Banda-less Orlando, but also been whomped by Washington and, less credibly, Utah, and Angel City by an aggregate 8-nil.

Yeah, that’s pretty fuckin’ shittim. This was a bad team with nothing to play for.

So the only real question was “how checked out will Houston be?”.

After ninety-odd minutes the answer turned out to be:

That’s pretty fucking checked out.

Okay, no; what Carlisle-sensei said: that’s reeeeally fuckin’ checked out.

So the Thorns’ job was simply not to fuck up and ship an early crap goal to give these vacationing soccer tourists a lick of hope, and Deyna Castellanos took that sucker out behind the shed and put a bullet in it during the third minute with a sweet long-distance golazo.

Jessie Fleming muscled in a second about half an hour later, and then it was sit back and enjoy the afternoon.

Solid win? Fine. Home quarterfinal locked? Fine.

That’s the dogs out of the way.

Now the real fun begins.

Short Passes

OPTA says both sides were tidy: Portland 80% completion of 418 passes, Houston 81% of 469, and we’ll take the Portland numbers apart in just a bit.

Here’s Sofascore’s “momentum” plot:

This flatters Houston. Despite the scattered stretches of blue, the Dash had only a handful of genuinely dangerous moments, and only one that was even close to providing a chance of changing the state of this match.

In the 17th minute Houston turned Kaitlyn Torpey over and Sarah Puntigam beat Torps to the Portland box and horked a long cross in to Yazmeen Ryan with both Sam Hiatt and Izzy Obaze woolgathering…

…but Ryan tap-danced over the ball one touch too many times, giving Reyna Reyes the opportunity to kick it out from under her.

Notice that had Ryan lifted her head moments earlier she’d have seen Delaney Sheehan lurking unmarked behind the back post with Hiatt ballwatching and Torpey nowhere to be found.

So the Thorns didn’t have a perfect day in the Valley of Decision, but given Houston it was good enough.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei with the passing. Portland:

The usual KenBall cluster near the center circle, with the forwards and Moultrie jammed up, Reyes and Castellanos stranded, and most of the passing going around the back, so not exactly like watching Brazil.

But given Houston? It didn’t have to be. Good enough.

Here’s Houston:

I cut out Carlisle-sensei’s funny little story about the buddies tear-assing around on jet-skis on their vacation, but that’s the point of the “already on a jet-ski” comment; already checked out and, yeah. Pretty much

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16
Orlando – Home (W)	18
San Diego – Away (D)	32
Houston – Away (W)	21
Bay FC – Away (L)	No data
Washington – Home (W)	16
Chicago – Home (W)	22
Washington – Away (L)	27
Seattle – Home (W)	20
Carolina – Away (D)	26
Kansas City – Home (L)	35
Utah – Home (L)	26
Louisville – Away (W)	28
Chicago – Away (D)	27
San Diego – Home (D)	28
Gotham – Away (L)	30
Bay FC – Home (W)	34
Orlando – Away (L)	30
Angel City – Away (W)	18
Houston – Home (W)	18

Another good match limiting giveaways. Eight in the first half, 10 in the second. Houston completely shit the bed in the first half, losing 20, and 10 more after the break to ensure their humiliation.

Three Thorns turned over three times each; Makenzie Arnold, Sam Coffey, and Alexa Spaanstra. Several players lost a couple.

None of the Portland turnovers was genuinely dangerous, the closest to “scary” being a 15th minute Fleming pass that gave Houston possession deep in the Portland defensive half. Houston being Houston, the Dash did nothing with it and so the danger passed.

Press!

Twenty-second match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”. If two players were involved in a press each received a half mark (for attempts) and a half credit for successes.

Pressing Houston high and hard, which Portland largely did until after the halftime break, seems like punching down…but that’s what good teams do to bad teams, so, fine. The counterpress was particularly effective at breaking up whatever passed for Houston “attacks”, but it’s worth noting that the success of Portland’s pressing – the duel wins and ball-wins – were fairly low.

Had Houston been better (and more invested) the Dash might have made something out of the way they slipped Portland’s press.

They weren’t (and weren’t) so they didn’t

Houston’s press was much more effective in terms of success-percentage but less so in terms of 1) number of pressing opportunities, and 2) turning the ball over.

I think this was largely because Portland went up early and didn’t have to push for a goal, try to work the ball into the attacking third and risk the potential loss.

Overall, not really a match where pressing quantity or quality was a factor.

Match time	HOU presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	13(13) (100%)	18(12) (66.6%)
15-30′	20(16) (80%)	23(14) (60.8%)
30-45+5′	10(6) (60%)	22(13) (59.1%)
First half	43(35) (81.4%)	63(39) (61.9%)
45-60′	13(9) (69.2%)	10(9) (90%)
60-75′	10(9) (90%)	11(7) (66%)
75-90+3′	13(11) (84.6%)	26(12) (46.1%)
Second half	36(29) (80.5%)	47(28) (59.5%)
Match Total	79(64) (81%)	110(67) (60.9%)

My thoughts:
1) As noted; not a match decided in the pressing thunderdome, so the numbers here are not really revealing tactically.
2) The usual midfield monsters pressing for Portland; Fleming (25 presses, 17 wins, a remarkable 7 ball-winning duels) and Moultrie (16 presses, 14 wins, 3 gains). Reilyn Turner was also busy forechecking (15 presses, 9 wins, 1 gain).
3) Four more Thorns pitched in: Coffey (9 presses, 4 wins but 3 gains), Castellanos (9 presses, 6 wins, 2 gains), Spaanstra (10 presses, 5 wins, 2 gains), and Torpey (9 presses, 5 wins, 2 gains).
4) The tidiest Thorn on the defensive pressing side was Reyes: (5 presses, 4 wins, 3 gains). Nice work, Reina Reyna!
5) On the other end, Houston pressed the hell out of three players: Moultrie (13 presses, 10 losses, 3 turnovers), Fleming (11 presses, 10 losses, 3 turnovers), and Sam Hiatt (12 presses, 11 losses, 3 turnovers).
6) Two backs were hit hard by Houston’s press; Reyes – who was turned over surprisingly often (6 presses, 5 losses, 3 turnovers) – and Torpey (5 presses, no wins, 2 turnovers. When she came on late Mallie McKenzie was, too (3 presses, no wins, 2 turnovers).

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28/20 (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)	28/17 (60.7%)	43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)	18/18 (100%)	100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)	27/17 (62.9%)	42/23 (54.7%)
Bay FC Away (L)	No data	No data
Washington Home (W)	31(15) (48.3%)	61(48) (78.6%)
Chicago Home (W)	31(21) (67.7%)	51(39) (76.4%)
Washington Away (L)	18(17) (94.4%)	25(12) (48%)
Seattle Home (W)	51(27) (52.8%)	42(33) (78.5%)
Carolina Away (D)	47(26) (55.3%)	59(39) (66.1%)
Kansas City Home (L)	43(23) (53.4%)	50(32) (64%)
Utah Home (L)	44(28) (63.6%)	64(29) (45.3%)
Louisville Away (W)	54(40) (74%)	46(30) (62.5%)
Chicago Away (D)	32(18) (56.2%)	67(39) (58.2%)
San Diego Home (D)	27(17) (62.9%)	87(61) (70.1%)
Gotham Away (L)	66(48) (72.7%)	101(43) (42.5%)
Bay FC Home (W)	45(35) (77.7%)	137(84) (61.3%)
Orlando Away (L)	95(63) (66.3%)	85(45) (52.9%)
Angel City Away (W)	56(45) (80.3%)	62(34) (54.8%)
Houston Home (W)	79(64) (81%)	110(67) (60.9%)

Nine-tenths of the Law

For the fourth match in a row I tracked the Thorns possessions; what they did with the ball whilst they had it, and what happened to it at the end. Specifically I tracked passes by type, length, and location (attacking third or otherwise).

Given the bleh performance from Houston (I didn’t see any real difference between the Dash’s work before the goals, between the goals, or after the goals, for that matter…) I just tracked possessions by halves.

First Half

The Thorns had a total of 49 possessions.
8 (16.3%) ended in some sort of “attack” or entry into Houston’s final third.
19 (38%) were lost to good defending such as tackles for loss or intercepted passes.
21 (42.9%) were ended by Thorns turnovers.
1 (2%) was ruled offside, so a combination of defensive discipline and poor attacking timing

During these possessions the Thorns made a total of 225 passes.
97 (43.1%) were “forward” passes (which included diagonal passes, either out wide or inside).
51 (22.7%) were in the Houston defensive third (so “attacking” passes)
6 (2.7%) were long cross or switching-fields passes, and
10 (4.4%) were long lobs or deep long passes.

Second Half

41 possessions.
5 (12.2%) attacks or entries into the Houston defensive third,
15 (36.6%) lost to tackles, interceptions, or other defensive actions, and
21 (51.2%) lost to turnovers.

A total of 175 passes during this period.
71 (40.6%) were “forward” passes; 29 (16.6%) were in the attacking third.
7 (4%) were long cross-/switch-field passes, and
10 (5.7%) were long lobs.

Match Totals:

Total possessions: 90
Attacking possessions: 13 (14.4%)
Possessions lost to defensive actions: 34 (37.7%)
Possessions lost to turnovers: 42 (46.6%)
Possessions lost to offside: 1 (0.3%)

Total passes: 400
Forward/diagonal passes: 168 (42%)
“Attacking” passes: 122 (30.5%)
Long passes: 20 (5%)
Cross-/switching-field passes: 13 (3.2%)

Here’s the running totals:

Poss/Passing	BayFC Home (W)	Orlando Away (L)	ACFC Away (W)	HOU Home (W)
Possessions	65	85	72	90
Ended in attack	6 (9.2%)	17 (20%)	19 (26.4%)	13 (14.4%)
Lost to defending	20 (30.7%)	25 (29.1%)	23 (31.9%)	34 (37.7%)
Lost to turnover	37 (56.9%)	43 (50.5%)	30 (41.7%)	42 (46.6%)
Lost to other	1 (1.5%)		1 (1.3%)	1 (0.3%)
Passes – total	388	431	216	400
Forward passes	143 (36.8%)	164 (38%)	81 (31.4%)	168 (42%)
Attacking passes	113 (29.1%)	67 (15.5%)	46 (21.3%)	122 (30.5%)
Long passes	28 (7.2%)	35 (8.1%)	33 (15.3%)	20 (5%)
Cross-field passes	4 (1.2%)	25 (5.8%)	10 (4.6%)	13 (3.2%)

Thoughts:
1. Either Houston was better defending or Portland was poorer going forward that I’d have thought given the xG and scoreline, but a surprisingly high number of Portland possessions ended with a defensive action.
2. That said, Houston wasn’t “good” in back; Portland posted the most forward/attacking passes we’ve seen since Bay FC (i.e. “fucking dire opponent”) away.
3. That also said, I might as well just cut and paste this: “Still, the Thorns tend to lose a LOT of possessions to sloppy passing. And that doesn’t include poor pass choices such as trying to force balls in to players marked touch-tight (which I usually marked as “ended by defending”) so the passing problems are actually worse than they look.” So, yeah. A better opponent would punish that.
4. Now we have four data sets the low gross passing numbers at ACFC jump out even more strongly as “weird”. Dunno what happened there, but it can’t all be the missing 19 minutes. The Thorns just didn’t pass much/well in LA, and I’m not sure why.

Corner Kicks

Three, all long. One first half, two second.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
1′	Moultrie	Long	Way over the pack, recycled, but then lost.
55′	Moultrie	Long	Right to Jane Campbell.
58′	Moultrie	Long	Cleared and ended by a Thorns foul in the box.

Absolutely nothing.

Player Ratings and Comments

Castellanos (74′ – +8/-0 : +5/-3 : +13/-3) I wish to hell that Castellanos played like this all the time. She’d be challenging Chawinga and Esther for MVP this season.

She doesn’t, so perhaps it’s just okay to enjoy the sweet stonk she rifled past Campbell for the matchwinner, or sleek ball-trickery like the gorgeous little looping chip she dropped to Turner’s feet in the 32nd minute, while accepting that there is no crown for Queen Deyna here.

Harbert (16′ – no rating) I’m still not seeing any sort of magic here. Seems decent enough, but no more.

Turner (+7/-1 : +7/-0 : +14/-1) Wants, or should want, that 32nd minute missed sitter back. Good match otherwise, both going forward and (as noted above) pressing/forechecking.

I don’t see her as a long-term solution to the Wilson Problem. But she’s a solid squad-level forward, and every team needs those.

Spaanstra (68′ – +8/-0 : +2/-0 : +10/-0) Terrific first half – intelligent passes, creative attacks – then faded sharply in the second, hence the early exit. Still, one of the better outings this player has had this season.

Alidou (22′ – +3/-0) Very “squad player” shift; no major goofs, nothing spectacular, either. Assuming the injured starters – Wilson, Weaver, Hanks – and better reserves like Turner and Tordin return next season I’m not sure there’s a place here for her. But she is a decent squad player, so she should go where she can get some minutes. If not here, the FO should see if they can find somewhere they can get some value for her.

Moultrie (+13/-0 +5/-0 : +18/-0) Broke her string of braces, but was an important part of this match and Portland’s attacking threat. One of three players with a legitimate shout at Woman of this Match.

My “When did you fucking learn to do that?!?” moment was in the 29th minute, when Sam Hiatt dimed Moultrie with a blisteringly direct forward pass and Livvy took the ball on the volley and just casually heel-flicked it out wide perfectly to a charging Torpey to take to the byline.

It was a terrific piece of slick footwork, more like the sort of things Christine Sinclair or Tobin Heath in their primes used to do. From Moultrie, whose quality I won’t deny but who has always struck me as more of a blue-collar sort of player, it was like watching one of the anonymous gym rats suddenly stick a triple loop spinning high bar dismount.

Fucking…wow. Just wow.

Coffey (+7/-0 : +12/-0 : +19/-0) One of the other two WotM candidates. Utterly relentless defending and disrupting Houston’s attempts to take ground in midfield. Even given the opponent, a hell of a fine match.

Fleming (+13/-2 : +7/-1: +20/-3) My WotM. Goal, assist, pressing, passing…this is the kind of complete-game sort of thing I’d like to see Fleming do every week, and if she brings it against San Diego tomorrow this squad is already halfway to the semifinal.

Torpey (68′ – +8/-2 : +3/-0 : +11/-2) I had trouble not worrying about Torpey; she seems liable to make big errors (or at least bigger than a player of her experience and pedigree should make). This match, however, she was on-task and composed all match, so wotcha, mate!

McKenzie (22′ – +4/-1) Stepped in and continued her teammate’s work keeping the boot on Houston’s neck.

Hiatt (92′ – +4/-2 : +6/-0 : +10/-2) Another player, like Torpey, who worries me with a tendency to make mistakes (and did here in the 17th minute, along with a couple of others more minor goofs…) but who did well enough to see off the hapless Dash.

Her PMR suggests how little she had to work to keep the clean sheet, mind, so needs to play more of a blinder if this club wants to beat Washington or Kansas City in the Final.

Perry (~2′ – no rating) Pure timewasting.

Obaze (+2/-0 : +4/-1 : +6/-1) Same note as Hiatt; largely untroubled and did what she needed to do to see off the Orange Crushed.

Reyes (91′ – +7/-0 : +6/-0 : +13/-0) Best of the backline, both in providing service and locking down Messiah Bright. Very good work.

Daiane (~4′ – no rating)

Arnold (+1/-0 : +1/-0 : +2/-0) Made a very intelligent play – off her line quickly to clear away a dangerous through-ball – in the 20th minute, and otherwise could have phoned her game in given how little Houston generated.

Coach Ken: Good enough.

The Dash weren’t really much of a challenge, though. Now the work gets tougher, and we’ll see if Ken has the Right Stuff to win three consecutive games against decent (or better) opponents.

I think this club still has issues; scoring without hero-ball, and (as the Ryan damn-that-was-close! attack showed) the defense still has brain-fart moments. Houston couldn’t be arsed to do anything with that, but Washington or Kansas City (or even San Diego or Orlando or Gotham) isn’t going to be that forgiving.

So it all comes down to this; 270-odd minutes of soccer for all the marbles.

Louisville and Seattle (hahahaaaa!) are gone.

San Diego and Portland have drawn the season, 1-1 twice.

Assuming we get past them it’s Washington, who split the results (losing 2-nil here in June, winning the early August rematch 2-1), and then either Orlando (another season split; both 1-nil, but the worrysome part of that is that the Pride win was against a Banda-less squad in October) or Kansas City (shudder…hammered us 5-1 on aggregate).

The Second Season starts tomorrow.

We’ll see how well this club has prepared for it.