Thorns FC: Undeserved

After the improbable second-half win over Gotham FC I wondered:

“Were you good in this one, or were you lucky? Did you make some subtle second half adjustments, or did your players grab this match by the scruff and, as Sam Coffey might have said, do it themselves? I honestly don’t see the “second half adjustments”; it looked to me more like Hanks taking the match by storm and Gotham, who’d been sort of farkling about for an hour or so, coming apart.”

And we had what seemed to me the perfect way to find that out; Racing Louisville coming to town this past weekend.

Take Racing apart like the last half hour against Gotham? That would look a lot more like “good” than “lucky”.

Racing arrived, and…

Holy Fucking Hell.

Keep in mind that this Louisville club is utter rubbish. Came in 12th of 14, 4pts, GD -6. Fuck, they rung three up on Portland having scored only three goals in the preceding five games!

I’m not sure I have adjectives enough to describe what a complete shitshow this match was, between the horrific malpractice of center referee Corbin May (41 fouls, one yellow card?) and each of Portland’s units trying to outdo each other for ways to lose; grotesque errors in back, complete hopelessness in front, disconnected and floundering in the midfield.

I’ll reserve most of the real stick for the comments, but the tl:dr version is that the Thorns were goddamn lucky – as in “completely, hopelessly, insanely lucky” – to escape this rolling clusterfuck with a single point. Not that Louisville deserved much more, but they were the better team on the day.

I don’t know what I can say at this point.

There’s some genuine individual talent here. Young players like Jadyn Perry, Caiya Hanks, Pietra Tordin are showing not “promise” but solid, progressive, competent soccer. They not just “could be” good; they are good.

Hina Sugita and Sam Coffey are still as good as we know they are.

As a team?

They’re a mess.

And when the ingredients are good but the finished product isn’t..?

Well, I know why, and you know why, too.

You know why, Jeff Agoos.

You know why, Lisa Bhathal Merage.

What’choo gonna do about that?

Short Passes

Portland had more possession – 55% to 45% – and was better passing, for whatever good that did; 78% completion of 317 passes. Racing, true to their form, were crap; 70% of 249.

Sofascore’s “momentum” diagram shows how pointless these possession and passing advantages were:

Here’s Henderson’s “xG race” plot:

Take away the penalties (which between them add about 1.5xG of Portland’s total of 2.58) and the Thorns generated barely 1 goal which is, indeed, all they got from the run of play. Their actual shooting was worse, as it has been all season; post-shot xG of about 1.8, which is almost entirely the penalties.

FBRef, by the way, treated the Thorns less kindly than Henderson. Total xG 2.07, non-penalty xG 0.61, Post-shot xG 1.96, non-penalty PSxG 0.26. Their estimation of Racing’s xG? 3.0, Post-shot xG? 3.5.

Ouch.

I’m not going to wait for our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle to post his plots but I’ll add them when he does.

Until then here’s Sofascore’s player position charts (starters on the left, subs on the right):

What a…how many times can I re-use the word “clusterfuck”?

Supposed to be a 4-3-3 but Turner was wandering around in the backfield again. Olivia Moultrie carrying Deyna Castellanos piggyback and narrow as fuckall, with Jessie Fleming and Hina Sugita stacked behind them in the center circle like a ICE breaching team preparing a forced entry to a daycare center, only not dangerous and not as organized.

When Payton Linnehan came on for Turner she looks more like an actual RW, which makes Ken’s obsession with Turner-as-RW even more bizarre, though Alexa-Spaanstra-for-Kaitlyn-Torpey completely banjaxes the backline for the final seven minutes.

Fucking KenBall. As we say in North Portland…

Racing:

I think that’s supposed to be a 4-2-3-1 but, hey, they’re not good, either. What’s that line about “ignorant armies clash by night”?

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent (Result) – 2025	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16

Frankly this was less due to Portland tidiness as much as (look up at the “momentum” bar graph) not having enough of the ball to lose it. When the Thorns did turn the ball over – as we’ll see – it was to pressure rather than unforced errors. Racing was fairly similar; only eleven turnovers total, six in the first half to Portland’s nine, five to seven after the break.

The Thorns’ Biggest Losers were Mallie McKenzie and Perry with three each. Castellanos and Torpey coughed up two-and-a-half each, and Moultrie turned over twice. Nobody else with more than one-and-a-half.

Of these few there were only two really ugly giveaways; Perry passed directly to Kayla Fischer in the 60th minute. Luckily the resulting Racing attack ended in Janine Sonis shooting tamely at Makenzie Arnold. The other was a poor 66th minute Fleming pass that Savannah DeMelo intercepted. Racing had a better look that time, forcing Isabella Obaze to head Emma Sears’ header back off her line.

press!

Fourth match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Here’s the results:

Match time	Racing presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	7(4) (57.1%)	4(3) (75%)
15-30′	2(1) (50%)	2(1) (50%)
30-45+5′	3(3) (100%)	2(2) (100%)
First half	12(8) (66.6%)	8(6) (75%)
45-60′	5(3) (60%)	3(2) (66.6%)
60-75′	7(5) (71.4%)	2(0) (0%)
75-90+11′	10(9) (90%)	1(0) (0%)
Second half	22(17) (77.2%)	6(2) (33.3%)
Match Total	34(25) (73.5%)	14(8) (57.1%)

My thoughts about this:
1) I’m not really familiar with them but the NWSL+ broadcast team kept repeating how Racing’s head coach Bev Yanez liked them to press and, boy fucking howdy, did they.
2) Portland, on the other hand, pressed little and seldom succeeded when they tried.
3) The real difference showed up in the final quarter hour as Portland chased in desperation and Racing repeatedly knocked them off the ball or forced them back or penned them in their own half.
4) For what it was worth the Thorns best pressers were Hina-san and Hanks (2.5 each), but Hina also had 1.5 unsuccessful presses. Nobody else had more then one successful press. Moultrie lost both her attempts
5) The Thorns most victimized by Racing were Linnehan (3.5), Reilyn Turner and Hina (3 each) and Fleming, Castellanos, and Moultrie (2 each).
6) That said, Hina-san evaded three pressing attempts, and Fleming slipped two, so pressing success against the two ran no better than 50%. Perry evaded two of the three attempts against her.

Like the rest of this match, Racing did what they needed to. It wasn’t pretty, but for May gifting Portland a penalty they might have nicked all the points

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28(20) (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57/1%)

We’ll keep tracking this.

Corner Kicks

Two. Both second half, both long.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
80′	Moultrie	Long	Someone in black flicked the ball out to Hanks. Her cross in damn near came off Alidou’s boot into the goal, but went just wide.
89′	Moultrie	Long	Cleared, recycled back to Moultrie; her drive into the box was cleared, too, then lost.

A decent chance from half of the corners? That’s good. Only two all match? That’s not good, and an indictment of the barrenness of KenBall in this one.

Player Ratings and Comments

Hanks (+8/-4 : +13/-0 : +21/-4) Woman of the Match for the second match in a row. Unfortunately this time Racing didn’t fall apart the way Gotham did and kept enough of a collar on Hanks to nick the road point.

Hanks also suffers from Severe Lack Of Support. As we’ve discussed, Turner isn’t a winger and Castellanos is not working as a center forward and the “false-nine” thing isn’t, either. So Hanks is often the only threat and Sophia Wilson will tell you how hard that is to fight through.

Castellanos (74′ – +3/-1 : +3/-4 : +6/-5) I hate to keep hammering on her, but she’s kind of the Poster Child for KenBall right now; flailing in a rudimentary “system” that’s not working and lacks the pure genius of the Wilson/Rodman/Chawinga/Banda sort to break out of it. Even with Wilson Ken couldn’t get the job done. With poor Castellanos instead? Hopeless. It’s becoming painful to watch and must be even more painful to be inside of.

Tordin (16′ – +1/-0) Tried her best, but her club was gassed and out of ideas for the most part. The plus is for a sweet flick-on in the 86th minute that directed a Linnehan cross onto Hanks’ boot, but Hanks couldn’t handle it and the ball rolled through.

Turner (66′ – +1/-1 : +3/-0 : +4/-1) After the Utah win I wrote:

“That was a tidy finish from Turner. But. It was her only tidy finish. I like a lot that Turner brings. But if she’s going to start consistently she has to finish consistently – better than that.”

In Utah Turner had one goal from an xG of 1.95. Against Racing she had one goal from an xG of 0.6, so I suppose that’s…better.

She’s still not a RW, though, so she’s a problem for the attack if Ken plays her there. I’m not sure what I’d do instead. Linnehan looks like a better right wing. Tordin looks like a better center forward. There seem like a fair number of options, but Ken doesn’t seem to see them. Something needs to change.

Linnehan (24′ – +5/-0) Played like a winger and put in two nice crosses including diming Tordin as mentioned above. Who knew, right? Fuck.

Olivia “The Human Stuka” Moultrie (+4/-1 : +4/-1 : +8/2) Sorry, Livvy, but this…

..is a ridiculously obvious dive that only a complete idiot or Corbin May (but I repeat myself) would call a foul and award a penalty for. And you did this shit all afternoon, too, which was embarrassing.

Other than the fainting spells you didn’t do poorly other than that. Only one shot, 0.1 xG, but five progressive carries, the most of anyone out of the 15 your club managed. Six “shot-creating actions”, also the most on your club, 1/3rd of the 18 total. Need to work on passing (63% completion) but some of that is on your coach’s static tactics.

But the diving is cringe.

I’m with Taylor Flint on this. Why? Please stop.

Sugita (+2/-0 : +0/-0 : +2/-0) Well, goddamn, Ken. What did you expect? You don’t have a backup for Coffey so you have to park your best box-to-box midfielder at the #6 when Coffey is off dancing at weddings and look. +2/-0? Seriously?

That’s like using a priceless heirloom katana to cut fucking firewood.

Fleming (74′ – +7/-1 : +3/-2 : +10/-3) Scored the expected penalty but nothing else (xG 0.08 on two other shots), largely because she had to track back a lot. Solid shift that also struggled with the utter shapelessness of Ken’s “attack”.

Alidou (16′ – +4/-0) Another nice little outing from this newcomer; she’s got a nice sense for open looks and moves to get them. Slick passer, too (86%).

Torpey (83′ – +2/-2 : +1/-0 : +3/-2) The Thorns backline didn’t cover themselves with glory last Sunday, so it’s hard to slather on the praise, but Torpey wasn’t bad, and that’s good. Largely kept Sonis and Ary Borges in check, so, okay.

Spaanstra (7′ – no impact)

Obaze (+3/-1 : +2/-1 : +5/-2) See the Torpey comment as well as the “turnover” section for a critical headed clearance; okay on a rough afternoon.

“Ice Cold” Perry (+3/-2 : +2/-2 : +5/-4) There’s kind of a limitation to the PMR system, and it’s that it under-represents the “one awshit cancels a thousand attagirls” problem.

Perry’s appalling “pass” (and ensuing hapless goal line flop) that produced Racing’s 32nd minute goal is one of those kind of awshits. That she kept her head in the match otherwise, including an assist on Turner’s goal and her own PK conversion? Great! But that sort of derp is straight out of Kelli Hubly World, and we finally got shut of Hubs, so let’s not go back there.

She’s a pure rookie, so the awshits are more excusable. But that was a Hubly problem, too; they tended to come back at the worst times. I hope that’s not Perry.

McKenzie (66′ – +4/-5 : +1/-1 : +5/-6) We’ll talk about the 3rd minute part of this in the Arnold comment, but McKenzie also had some ugly awshits in the 3rd and 39th minutes; Sears was her mark and Sears utterly owned her on the 39th minute goal. Better in the second half but hard to tell if that was more Racing sitting up.

Reyes (24′ – +2/-0) Fairly minor shift other than…

…getting tromped on to nick the injury time PK and the point, so.

Arnold (+0/-2 : +2/-0 : +2/-2) I try and defend you – when the Arnold-haters bay for your blood – because of stuff like this:

But then you do stuff like this, beginning with a 3rd minute loss of possession off a poor Torpey throw-in. Fleming is tackled for loss and Fischer brings the ball up with every right-side Portland defender ballwatching as Solis runs free wide.

Fischer hits Solis…

…who gets to the byline and crosses into the six-yard box.

And then, instead of claiming the simple low cross, you flap at it and it bounces loose.

Luckily there’s no purple people inside the six other than Sears, who’s too far forward to pounce.

But your fumble isn’t harmless. Lauren Milliet claims the loose ball and begins a new attack cycle that culminates in a Borges headed flick that Sears luckily can’t control and rolls over the byline.

Your numbers are solid. Your hands? Not so much, and you give the haters and Bixby-stans stick to beat you with. If you could clean that stuff up? It would help you and ease my troubled mind.

Coach Ken: Easiest three points outside Chicago and you screwed it up. How? That’s almost a fucking gift. A dark, stupid gift, but, still.

And this coming weekend you’ve got Orlando coming in?

You poor damned fool.