Last Friday was perhaps the most unusual soccer game played in the old barn that will always be “Civic Stadium” regardless of whose name is stuck over the doors.
It was the last game of a very troubled regular NWSL season that found the hosts desperate for points to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2015 after a campaign marred by injury, firings, and rumors of internal discontent.
As the box in the screenshot above shows; a Portland loss combined with wins by Bay FC and Louisville (albeit Racing needing a massive goal differential, but still…) would have been the End of 2024.
For the first time in years Portland’s season hung in the balance of the final regular season game.
But.
The game was also a celebration of the storied career of a Portland legend…
…taking the pitch for the final time since, well, since she ran out on the grass at Merlo Field twenty-odd years ago.
The Thorns needed to be better than they’d been for weeks. And they needed some luck. And they needed the showrunners to write a feel-good Hallmark Movie story for the match.
Well…
They got it.
Okay, the first ten minutes or so were kinda nervous. Angel City seemed determined to ignore their elimination and the reality that they were a crap team. They got a half chance in the third minute that Christen Press fluffed straight to Shelby Hogan. Gisele Thompson got to the byline and put in a good cross in the 12th minute that Kelli Hubly had to block out for a corner.
Then in the 16th minute the Angels turned the ball over to Marie Muller. Muller headed forward to Sophia Smith, who took off up the left side and ripped off a hammer of a shot that Didi Haracic could only kick back out to…
…who else? The legend herself, camped out on the edge of the six.
Sinclair had a centerback right up in her face, though, and it looked like all Megan Reid had to do was easily stretch out a bit to poke the ball off Sinc’s foot.
Instead she was frozen in place, watching Sinclair dance over the ball…
…shifting left to right, shimmying in place with Reid enthralled like the snake in the storybook entranced by the mongoose, until…
…Sinclair chose to finish tormenting the poor Angels, lifted the ball before Haracic could scramble to her feet, and potted the matchwinner.
Oh, there was more, of course.
The Smith hero-run and goal two minutes later that was called back…
…for a blatantly mistaken offside call.
(To which Smith replied by effectively repeating the same run – note to Becky Tweed; if you don’t want to ship Smith goals, don’t give Smith acres of space wide. It will never end well for you, and it didn’t, did it? – in the 26th minute to put Portland up two-nil).
And then this;
…deep in first half stoppage time. Three things; Hina Sugita utterly unmarked in possession near the top of the eighteen; Morgan Weaver, also unmarked, on the back post side, and…
…the Angels, helping to celebrate Sinclair Night with a full team piece of Ballwatching Performance Art.
Given that opportunity of course Hina-san was going to pitch a perfect looping cross to Weaver on the doorstep for the simple headed finish, three-nil and lights out, thanks for coming and don’t forget to tip your server.
The second half was, frankly, boring. Portland needed to sit in, and did…(mind you, the Thorns defense was fairly disciplined all match)…
…and ACFC needed to find attacking flair and didn’t (did I mention that AC is crap? Okay then).
The Angels still managed to find some looks; Sydney Leroux scuffed a dribbler to Hogan in the 54th minute, Press fired just high three minutes later, Jasmyne Spencer hit the crossbar (I think – Prime Video was too busy showing Sinclair’s back to show it) in the 59th minute, Madison Hammond forced a Hogan kick-save in the 66th minute, and Alyssa Thompson ran through the entire fucking Portland backline in the 91st minute but was finally dispossessed only for the clearance to kick right out to Claire Emslie, whose free header went wide left.
Oh, and at the other end Hina-san‘s shot was blocked after a terrific buildup in the 62nd minute, while two minutes later Payton Linnehan hammered a rasper off the near post.
Okay. Maybe not really that boring.
(Still…three goals off an xG below 1.0? Tho I’ll bet the post-shot xG was more like two, still…not much.)
But boring enough to see out the win and Portland into the playoffs.
And of course, this:
Taken in all, the showrunners done good, writing the happy ending to a long and distinguished career, scripting a joyful night full of good excitement and loving tributes from friends and fans for the heroine of the story.
Would I like to think that this season is still part of the storybook?
Would I like to believe that this game is the redemptive moment in the “hero’s journey” that turns that journey from grief and sorrow to ultimate success in the Final Quest, the Fourth Star of The Constellation?
Sure I do!
Do I?
Weeelllllll…
Short Passes
Per OPTA Portland got murdered; 70% of only 307 passes to ACFC’s 83% of 562. This time, however, it was the Angels passing that was “possession-without-purpose”; across the back, up the flanks, back downfield, repeat. ACFC turned over a lot (as we’ll discuss), while Portland connected on all the passing they needed.
Our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle has the goods. First, Portland:
No argument out of me; if it’s stupid and it works against ACFC, it’ll be stupid to try that shit against Gotham.
This can’t be the same this coming weekend or your troops are gonna get pasted, Ken.
ACFC:
ACFC, bad team, bad luck, poor coaching, no response. The Sad Life of a Tomato Can.
Turnover and over.
Here’s how things are going
| Opponent (Result) – 2024 | Turnovers |
| Kansas City (L) | 43 |
| Gotham (L) | 30 |
| Louisville (D) | 54 |
| Carolina (L) | 34 |
| Houston (W) | No data |
| Chicago (W) | No data |
| Bay FC (W) | 41 |
| Washington (W) | 26 |
| Seattle (W) | 20 |
| Houston (W) | 21 |
| Orlando (L) | 28 |
| North Carolina (W) | 27 |
| Seattle (D) | 26 |
| Kansas City (L) | 35 |
| Utah (D) | 35 |
| San Diego (W) | 30 |
| Gotham (L) | 43 |
| Bay FC (L) | 35 |
| Washington (L) | 35 |
| Chicago (L) | 35 |
| Angel City (D) | 25 |
| San Diego (L) | 34 |
| Utah (L) | |
| Orlando (W) | 29 |
| Louisville (L) | 36 |
| Angel City (W) | 31 |
For a change I kept track of the opponent turnovers. Angel City? Coughed up 29 times. So it wasn’t so much that Portland was tidy. Both sides were pretty sloppy – especially in the first half where both teams turned over 20 times – and ACFC were the worse team overall.
Cough up that many hairballs against Washington or Gotham or Orlando and see where it gets ya.
The Biggest Loser was a tight race; Jessie Fleming turned over seven times, Nicola Payne five-and-a-half. Smith lost four-and-a-half, mostly trying to dribble through traffic because hero-ball habits die hard, and Muller turned over four.
Hubly lost only three, but that included an appalling 22nd minute “clearance” straight onto Press’ boot. Fortunately for Hubs she then stuck out her butt and blocked Press’ pointblank shot.
Seven others with one or a couple, tho nothing dangerous.
Corner Kicks
One, a long kick in the 24th minute
| Time | Taker | Short/Long? | Result |
| 24′ | Fleming | Long | Into the scrum and cleared over the touchline for a Thorns throw that got nowhere |
Nothing, really.
Throw-Ins
For a match of two very different halves, not much difference in throw-ins. Portland took a total of 29; 13 in the first half, 16 in the second. ACFC threw in 26 times; 14 first half, 12 second.
Of Portland’s throw-ins I had only 14 of 29 (48.2%) connecting successfully and 11 (37.9%) going to ACFC. Four (13.7%) were “neutral”, going neither to Portland nor LA (usually meaning either out for another throw close to the original spot, or pinging around to be decided by actions onfield).
Angel City completed 22 of 26 throws (84.6%) and lost three (11.5%). One was “neutral” (4.5%).
Kind of hammers home the “being good at throw-ins isn’t a huge tactical advantage” conclusion this study has been driving us towards.
Anyway, here’s how that’s going:
| Opponent | Advantage gained | Advantage lost | Opponent gain | Opponent loss |
| Kansas City (L) | 62.5% | 8.3% | 59.2% | 40.1% |
| Gotham (L) | 62.8% | 22.8% | 57.1% | 38% |
| Racing (D) | 84.3% | 15.7% | 43.7% | 50% |
| Carolina (L) | 70.9% | 29.2% | 73% | 27% |
| Houston | ||||
| Chicago | ||||
| Bay FC (W) | 64.2% | 28.5% | 71.4% | 28.5% |
| Washington (W) | 41.6% | 58.3% | 62.5% | 34.3% |
| Seattle (W) | 71.4% | 14.2% | 80% | 20% |
| Houston (W) | 67.8% | 25% | 69.6% | 30.3% |
| Orlando (L) | 76% | 24% | 73% | 30.7% |
| Carolina (W) | 89.4% | 5.2% | 57.6% | 26.9% |
| Seattle (D) | 85.7% | 9.5% | 68.7% | 28.7% |
| Kansas City (L) | 70.7% | 29.3% | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| Utah (D) | 65.5% | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| San Diego (W) | ||||
| Gotham L) | 47.6% | 28.6% | 50% | 35% |
| Bay FC (L) | 63.6% | 27.3% | 62% | 20% |
| Washington (L) | 60% | 40% | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| Chicago (L) | 75% | 15.6% | 36.6% | 50% |
| Angel City (D) | 68% | 27.3% | 81.8% | 7.4% |
| San Diego (L) | 61.9% | 28.5% | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| Utah (L) | ||||
| Orlando (W) | 65.3% | 26% | 70.3% | 25.9% |
| Racing (L) | 72% | 24% | 72.2% | 22.2% |
| Angel City (W) | 48.2% | 37.9% | 84.6% | 11.5% |
| Average | 67.0% | 25.2% | 64.8% | 29.2% |
I think we’re done here.
Of the first of the two original hypotheses: “The Thorns seem to be bad at throw-ins. Why?” the conclusion supported by the data is no, the Thorns are about as proficient at throwing in as the rest of the league.
The second: “Do throw-ins make a difference tactically?” the data also seems to contradict the hypothesis.
I’ll have to take a harder look, but when you have games like this one (out-thrown handily but Thorns win) or Chicago on MD 20 (Thorns out-throw the Red Stars 75-36%, lose) and all the even throw-in-success/fail matches that didn’t end drawn, well, at least the draft conclusion has to be no, not in any way that appears statistically significant.
So I’m good concluding this study here. Any questions about the premise, data collection, means, methods, or conclusions? If not, thanks and g’bye, throw-ins.
Player Ratings and Comments
Sinclair (84′ – +6/-1 : +1/-0 : +7/-1) All the issues we’ve talked about Sinc this season, good and ill, are still there.
She’s lost her wheels. She’s a huge factor in team leadership, and her teammates love and play hard for her. She’s gassed after the hour, if she makes it that far. She’s got a keelson-deep well of soccer intelligence, but her aging body makes it hard for her to use it effectively.
Last Friday wasn’t about that.
It was just about celebrating her; Captain Christine Sinclair of the Order of Canada, of Portland Pilots fame, of Portland Thorns glory.
It was a chance to show her how much love and honor she has earned, and how much she is cherished.
Tomorrow is soon enough for the cold light of morning.
Tonight was reveling in the cold and the rain, glowing in the memories and hopes, feeling the threads of Sinclair’s career that run through our lives, and the team’s, and sew them together.
Thank you, Sinc. Goodnight.
Klingenberg (6′ – no rating) I have to wonder.
She was so often in tears…could this have been Kling’s last home game, too? She’s classy enough that she wouldn’t think of stealing any of Sinc’s moment. But…have we seen the last of our Spirit Animal, too?
Smith (45′ – +7/-0) All her usual, meaning insane, levels of attacking skill mixed with “Smith! You have teammates! Use them! What the fuck..?” hero-ball habits.
Smith is still the key to the Thorns lock. Look at the halves. With Smith? All over the ACFC shitshow. No Smith? Zzzzz…
Linnehan (45′ – +10/-0) Hell of a shift from Linnehan, though! Within the thickness of a goalpost from Portland’s fourth, great positioning and pace, tenacious forechecking.
I’m sorry, though; I cannot call someone I don’t know personally “Peeps”. That’s what you call your pet baby chick. Ain’t gonna happen here.
Weaver (72′ – +8/-0 : +4/-0 : +12/-0) Happy night for the Happy Warrior, and a tidily-taken goal. Like Linnehan, did hard grinding work tracking back. Like Smith, took full advantage of Angel City’s slack wide defending. Like Smith, is unlikely to find that space this coming Sunday.
Spaanstra (18′ – no rating) Little to do, but saw out the win. So, fine.
Fleming (+6/-0 : +7/-0 : +13/-0) Another solid outing from the Other Canadian, with the caveat that the LA midfield was surrendering like Italian soldiers in a WW2 comedy. Still, Fleming is looking much more composed and in sync with her teammates, but especially, and possibly because, of…
Sugita (72′ – +7/-0 : +2/-0 : +9/-0) In chemistry certain substances are “catalysts”. When introduced into a chemical reaction these substances increase reaction rate, or reaction completion.
Sugita-senshu is like that. Not just her play, but her play usually makes her teammates’ play better. The Weaver assist is just the most visible; she grinds hard defending, covers ground to deny opponents space, forechecks and backchecks…there’s very little she can’t do.
As I’ve said repeatedly, the most adorable thing ever is the sweet friendship between little Hina-san and her big Canadian buddy. The most adorably adorable final moment came in Sinc’s pregame presser, at about 18:30, here:
Sinc takes a question from “that side of the room” meaning presumably where her teammates are sitting.
In a halting voice Sugita asks “Who will you miss the most..?”
There’s a bit of crosstalk before Hina-san continues in an even smaller voice: “…and why…is it me?”
What? I’m not crying! I’m not! There’s just…something in my eye. I’m totally not crying.
For the record, Sinc replies that yes, she will miss Hina-san the most, because Hina’s just the kindest, best person in the whole wide world.
Moultrie (18′ – +3/-0) Came on to defend and defended, which is not her strong suit, so well played.
Coffey (93′ – +5/-0 : +7/-1 : +12/-1) The “Coffey Moment” from this one was in the 26th minute. Crafty anticipation, crunching tackle for gain, sleek move into open space, intelligent vision to pick out Smith open wide left, silken delivery to put Smith in for the golden finish.
What more is there to say? Barring injury and FO insanity, hopefully we’ll enjoy a “Sam Coffey Tribute Night” like Sinc’s (only from better on the table) a decade from now.
Hirst (~1′ – no rating)
Muller (+3/-0 : +6/-0 : +9/-0) As noted, the Portland backline was generally disciplined and sturdy all night. As noted, ACFC is crap, and couldn’t test them much. But also as noted, AC did get some looks, and if Press and Leroux could hit water if they fell out of a boat this one might have been dicier.
So. Well played, yes. But this wasn’t a real test. We’ll see if we can tighten up against Gotham.
Hubly (+1/-1 : +1/-1 : +2/-2) Had her derp but bailed out by her own backside, so, okay. Same comment as Muller, though. We need a blinder from you at the Red Bull, Hubs. You up for that?
Sauerbrunn (+1/-0 : +5/-1 : +6/-1) Good outing, ran her backline solidly. Same comments as Muller and Hubly.
Payne (+6/-2 : +6/-2 : +12/-4) Again, given how barren ACFC was going forward, Payne wasn’t challenged often and was usually up to the challenge when she was. But things like the way Thompson skinned her in the 91st minute are a bit worrying. Will need to be on her best – or replaced as fullback pair by Reyes and Muller – for Gotham.
Hogan (+1/-0 : +1/-1 : +2/-1) Made the stops she should have, but this stuff…
…is why fans stress about her. High looping ball off Muller’s head, Messiah Bright up in her grille…that’s a moment to be safe, for Hogan to either 1) box high and wide, or 2) catch and cradle the ball to the chest.
Instead Hogan tried to do something, catch with her palms facing out I think, and spilled the ball – fortunately past Bright – and went to ground. Luckily she was able to kick out the ensuing shot.
As we’ve discussed here; a team plays looser and more confident when there are safe hands behind them. I’m not sure how much stuff like this gets in their heads, but the less of it, the better.
Coach Ken: You had –
1) Hina-san back in the XI,
2) A crap opponent,
3) A huge emotional high that was lifted higher by
4) The Love Object scoring on the crap opponent early.
I’ll give you credit for this – you took the leash off Sam Coffey and let, or sent, her upfield to harass and forecheck and slaughter the hapless Angels like cold Death. Between that, Sugita, and Fleming all having fine games your squad owned midfield and, once up three, could sit in and did.
Your squad played within themselves, looked composed, and did what they needed for you.
That’s great.
Did it change my mind about you?
No. Look back up at the pass map. KenBall is still not really good soccer.
But…if this IS the “redemptive moment” that sends this squad on a mad three-match run?
Holy Hell, it might save your job and then where’ll we be?.
Let’s see what happens, though, shall we..?
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Holy crap. The aggregate team PMR is +104/-10. I’ve never seen such an unbalanced PMR stat line. (Well I’ve never actually done a team total before now, but I’m sure I’ve never seen anything like this.) That’s a factor of more than 10 between the + and – scores! And I’ve never seen so many “-0” scores among the PMRs – seven of the thirteen rated players had NO bad plays. Well done, Thorns.
Angel City was bad AND we were good. And Christine Sinclair was, and is, the GOAT.
Yeah, this was a pretty one-sided performance. Some of that comes out in the numbers; a good opponent tends to force mistakes, a poor one doesn’t, or doesn’t take advantage of those mistakes, so they tend to get lost in the shuffle. I think it WAS a good game in terms of individual players, but it’s worth noting the ugly passing diagram. I think our blogger is correct; getting early goals allowed Ken to get away with tactics a better opponent might very likely have punished him for.
And Sinc is…who she is. There’s a greatness that lingers long after the pinnacle of achievement. But…there’s also a time to leave the stage. I’m glad she’s chosen to go out while that greatness still lingers.
Great post John. Plus there was this:
In chemistry certain substances are “catalysts”. When introduced into a chemical reaction these substances increase reaction rate, or reaction completion.
Sugita-senshu is like that. Not just her play, but her play usually makes her teammates’ play better. The Weaver assist is just the most visible; she grinds hard defending, covers ground to deny opponents space, forechecks and backchecks…there’s very little she can’t do.
That was so apt of an explanation, she is marvelous!
One thing was apparent to me is that the players have a higher opinion of Sinclair’s importance than most on the STF commenters. I know I have groaned when Sinclair would be in the starting 11, but I am beginning to see that the team seems to feel a certain confidence having her in there; despite having to pick up slack because of her lack of pace. She will undoubtably start against Gotham and that will probably be the Thorns last game this year. BUT of all the top four teams, Gotham is probably the slowest and most cerebral team and maybe perfect for Sinc to have great game, but I hope Rob only promises her 50 minutes. Hey, if the Thorns can exploit that Gotham high line early and get a goal or two, who knows?
I think a lot of the Sinc complaints on STF are not really about her, but about how she is being used. I know I had a number of them, and it was never really about Sinclair even though she was the focus of the comments. The complaints are based on the coaching staff’s insistence that she is a full time player, and not a rotation player who should have gotten 3-6 starts during the year. She was effective, mostly against lower competition, and didn’t deserve the ire that the coaches exposed her to.
I’ve never doubted her value to the squad; the troops love their captain. As I said; everything that’s been said about her here and at STF is still true. It’s not as simple as “she got no wheels”, but…she’s GOT no wheels. She contributes in other ways, but that lack of pace is deadly against a fast opponent or one that knows how to play around her.
Will the squad do well in Gotham? I honestly don’t know. We haven’t so far this season. But this is playoff soccer, and that’s a different animal.
Had just read your comments on Hina-san at Sinc’s pre-game presser when my wife walked by and asked, “OK, what is it now?” I responded with your line: What? I’m not crying! I’m not! There’s just…something in my eye. I’m totally not crying. Then in a blubbbering voice I tried to read the lines to her.
I’m a late-comer to your pages, but I’m sure going to miss them when the seasons over!
I am honored. Thank you. That’s the nicest thing you can say to a writer…
A lot of why our attack clicked so well was simply that ACFC’s defense was tissue-thin. Smith’s goal was a good example – ACFC left her whole side of the field undefended, and Coffey and Smith combined to take good advantage. Unfortunately Amorós has organized Gotham’s defense much better so it’s going to be a completely different game in that respect. Also Gotham’s player quality on defense is better, though maybe Sonnett will gift us a derp.
I think I hit on that repeatedly. Yes, the Thorns played well. No, they’re not going to get that much space and time out of Gotham…or ANY of the top teams if they get past Gotham.
That had a LOT to do with the lack of minuses. Bad teams don’t force mistakes. Good teams do, and Gotham is a good team. I’d like to think we have a chance. But that sort of lopsided outing? I doubt it.