Thorns FC: Lucky

Despite doing absolutely nothing of soccer value for the first half hour, despite being largely outworked and outplayed by an exceptionally meh San Diego Wave squad for most of the remainder of the match, the Portland Thorns worked a foul, a free kick, a crossbar, and a poaching fullback into a thoroughly against-the-run-of-play goal and an exceptionally lucky point that, even more exceptionally lucky, matched the results of two of the other three clubs who’d been sitting on thirty points last Friday.

(the fourth was Seattle, who had the shit-luck to run into the Kansas City buzzsaw on the night KC needed the win to clinch the Shield. Oh, well, sucks to be you, Seattle.)

So somehow Portland sits fourth on the table, above San Diego and below Gotham on goal difference alone.

But…daaaaamn. That was one ugly ass point.

There was a lot of online angst about the exclusion of Hina Sugita from the XI again, and a fair amount of ire about the play of some of the other starters, but what I came away from the match was that, more than any individual, more than any roster, more than anything else, the problem is the system.

The Thorns in possession play a very slow, deliberate, lateral- and back-passing-heavy tactical scheme. This isn’t KenBall per se; Rhian Wilkinson used some form of it, as did her successor Mike Norris, to the point where I came up with a nickname for it then: “dink-dink-boot”.

Because that was how it looked last Saturday; dink it around the back, up the flank, back to the defenders, across, up the other side, back…finally, boot a long pass up to whoever is up front and hope.

This time I tried to keep track of how the Thorns played to see if that’s what they were doing. Here’s part of the tally:
1′ – Perry booted a long ball, lost to SDW.
1′ – Around the back, Perry-Hiatt-McKenzie-Hiatt-McKenzie who hits the long pass over the SDW byline.
2′ – Perry pressed, tackled for loss.
7′ – McKenzie-Hiatt up to Tordin, long ball over Dufour’s head, turnover.
9′ – Reyes-Coffey-Reyes who boots a long ball into touch.
10′ – Reyes throw-in to Turner – Reyes – Perry long ball off a SDW head to Moultrie who’s fouled.
10′ – Hiatt gain – Dufour – drop to Coffey – square to Dufour – drop to McKenzie – drop to Hiatt – square to Arnold – square to Hiatt – up to Coffey – drop to Arnold – square to Hiatt (pressed) – forced pass to Tordin, lost.
11′ – Moultrie gain – drop to Hiatt – up to Coffey – long switch to Reyes (pressed) – drop to Coffey – long pass to Turner – flicked to no one and lost.
17′ – Arnold goal kick square to Hiatt – square to McKenzie – up to Alidou (pressed) – bounced off SDW for POR throw – McKenzie long pass to Tordin, handball, turnover.
20′ – Arnold goal kick square to Hiatt – square to Arnold – wide to Reyes – up to Turner, who’s fouled.
21′ – Reyes free kick drop to Coffey – drop to Perry (poor backpass! nearly intercepted) – drop to Arnold – long clearance deflected off SDW to Turner whose headed flick goes to SDW.

Yep. That’s dink-dink-boot. There’s a lot more like that.

Then there’s San Diego pressing; here’s just one example:
28′ – Arnold goal kick square to Hiatt – square to McKenzie (pressed) – drop to Hiatt – drop to Arnold (pressed) – square to Perry (pressed) – wide to Reyes – square to Fleming (pressed) – drop to Perry (pressed) – wide to Reyes – long to Tordin (pressed, tackled for loss).

Again; San Diego did not play well last Saturday. The Wave were like a poster child for “possession without purpose”; the two teams’ xG’s (as we’ll see) were damn near equal.

But the way the Thorns played made it childishly easy for Eidevall and his squad. Possess the ball and the Thorns will be too slow to take it from you. Press them and they’ll be too slow to escape you until you turn them over.

Are there individual Thorns who could be playing better? Yes. Are there Thorns lineups that might work together better? Very likely; I’d love to see more of Hina-san, for example.

But in general? I don’t think it’s the players or the lineup.

It’s the system.

And so here we are, again, back to the plaintive cry I utter at the end of so many of these damn things:

What the fuck do you do in training, Ken???

Short Passes

Per OPTA both clubs were tidy, 80-81% completion. However, what Portland got in terms of attack was largely off San Diego turnovers, so there’s that.

Mind you, there was fuck all “Portland attack” for most of the…well, see for yourself:

Fuuuuuck. That’s brutal, and yet…look at the blue and marvel at all that possession with nothing to show for it. Not because Portland was defending like heroes, mind, but because of stuff like this:

Woof. Can you say “missed a sitter”, boys and girls? Fucking-A right you can. There’s not too many other Brazilians could miss that chance; Marta would have yeeted Dudinha into Row ZZZ if she’d missed that sitter for her country.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei, first with some xG racing:

“Sorta entertaining” is a neutral’s version of “haha watch these jokers flail”. You’ll note that without Reyes the Thorns xG is barely over 0.5. Chris Henderson has something similar…

…except worse; take away Reyes and the club is barely 0.25xG.

FBRef shows the Thorns with a total of 1.14 “post-shot xG”. Reyes is 0.98 of that, leaving only Pietra Tordin’s first half injury time header (0.07PSxG) and Reilyn Turner’s 79th minute shot (0.09PSxG) to fill in the rest.

This was not a good attacking match.

Here’s the passing plots. Portland:

Neither do we, sensei.

Here’s San Diego:

Again; if you pass slowly around your own third, you invite rude strangers to poke their noses into your business. You’d think we’d have learned that by now, but, no.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16
Orlando – Home (W)	18
San Diego – Away (D)	32
Houston – Away (W)	21
Bay FC – Away (L)	No data
Washington – Home (W)	16
Chicago – Home (W)	22
Washington – Away (L)	27
Seattle – Home (W)	20
Carolina – Away (D)	26
Kansas City – Home (L)	35
Utah – Home (L)	26
Louisville – Away (W)	28
Chicago – Away (D)	27
San Diego – Home (D)	28

Consistent, but not really in a good way. Thirteen in the first half, 15 in the second. San Diego lost 6 before the break, 10 afterwards.

Both clubs dropped some real howlers. Perry in the 2nd minute, Hiatt in the 51st, Turner in the 88th. Didi Haracic coughed up the ball to a Turner press in the 64th minute, and San Diego turned over again in the 78th minute that led to some danger.

The Thorns defenders turned over quite a bit; Perry and Hiatt both lost the ball four times, and McKenzie three. Moultrie turned over three times, as well. No one else lost more than twice.

Press!

Seventeenth match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”. If two players were involved in a press each received a half mark (for attempts) and a half credit for successes.

Portland’s press was insane.

San Diego pressed selectively, and generally more effectively, confining their presses to the midfield and forwards until it became obvious that Portland wasn’t going to move the ball forward with pace. Then the press began hitting the backline.

Match time	Wave presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	3(2) (66.6%)	18(8) (44.4%)
15-30′	1(1) (100%)	16(12) (75%)
30-45+6′	13(8) (61.5%)	18(14) (77.7%)
First half	17(11) (64.7%)	52(34) (65.3%)
45-60′	3(2) (66.6%)	9(4) (44.4%)
60-75′	6(3) (50%)	16(15) (93.5%)
75-90+6′	1(1) (100%)	10(8) (80%)
Second half	10(6) (60%)	35(27) (77.1%)
Match Total	27(17) (62.9%)	87(61) (70.1%)

My thoughts:
1) I was surprised at 1) how successfully Portland pressed given 2) how little it seemed to discommode San Diego. The Wave just sort of lolled about passing but not gaining much from it. Perhaps that was the effect of the Portland press! It sure didn’t look it.
2) Portland, on the other hand, really struggled to get out of their own end, and some of that was San Diego pressing, but much was just impatience, lack of connectivity, and the ‘boot” part of dink-dink-boot.
3) The usual pressing monsters were there for Portland; Coffey (15 presses, 10 wins), Moultrie (13 presses, 8 wins), and Fleming (11 presses, 7 wins).
4) But a couple of forechecking forwards showed up,too: Tordin (13.5 presses, 6.5 wins), and Turner (9.5 presses, 8.5 wins). Tordin with the effort, Turner with the success.
5) On the receiving end, Turner was pressed four times, losing possession three times. Fleming (4 presses, 2 losses) and Moultrie (5 presses, 4 losses) took the hardest knocks.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28/20 (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)	28/17 (60.7%)	43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)	18/18 (100%)	100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)	27/17 (62.9%)	42/23 (54.7%)
Bay FC Away (L)	No data	No data
Washington Home (W)	31(15) (48.3%)	61(48) (78.6%)
Chicago Home (W)	31(21) (67.7%)	51(39) (76.4%)
Washington Away (L)	18(17) (94.4%)	25(12) (48%)
Seattle Home (W)	51(27) (52.8%)	42(33) (78.5%)
Carolina Away (D)	47(26) (55.3%)	59(39) (66.1%)
Kansas City Home (L)	43(23) (53.4%)	50(32) (64%)
Utah Home (L)	44(28) (63.6%)	64(29) (45.3%)
Louisville Away (W)	54(40) (74%)	46(30) (62.5%)
Chicago Away (D)	32(18) (56.2%)	67(39) (58.2%)
San Diego Home (D)	27(17) (62.9%)	87(61) (70.1%)

Corner Kicks

Three, two long, one short. Two before the break, one late.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
45+2′	Moultrie	Long	Way over the scrum, cleared and lost.
45+4′	Moultrie	Long	Haracic boxed away, recycled and ended up on Tordin’s head, but the header was soft and right to Haracic.
92′	Moultrie	Short	…to Fleming; her cross in found Hiatt’s head, but again the soft header went to Haracic.

Better deliveries, and a couple of headers, so not bad. Still not really very clever or creative in terms of set plays.

Player Ratings and Comments

Turner (+3/-1 : +8/-2 : +11/-3) Another energetic outing from Turner but without a goal. Some of that was her own lack of field vision (shooting directly at Haracic in the 79th minute was a poor choice), but much of it was, again, the way the Thorns train. Often a Thorn in possession near the opposing goal lacks any options; no runners, no distractions…so the defense can collapse on them. It must be frustrating, but you play like you train.

Tordin (63′ – +3/-0 : +1/-0 : +4/-0) A holdup forward needs service to hold up, and wingers to relieve pressure; Tordin got neither. The substitution was peculiar, too; why pull a forward when you’re down a goal?

Sugita (27′ – +4/-0) And the problem with subbing in Hina-san is that she plays more defensively in KenBall than she can and probably should; three of her four pluses are defensive. Again…odd sub, and the whole way that Gale uses Sugita-senshu is odd.

Dufour (16′ – No rating) And now Julie Dufour is out, SEI. Another knee. Goddammit.

Alidou (61′ – +4/-0 : +0/-1 : +4/-1) I still like Mimi Alidou, but this match did not showcase her well. Tough forechecker, but the Thorns needed goals and Alidou 1) isn’t a goalscorer and 2) hasn’t been trained in a system that emphasizes coordinated attack, so she doesn’t help Turner or Tordin. That was a problem.

Castellanos (13′ – +2/-0) Didn’t do much of note, but was on the pitch for the equalizer, so there’s that.

Fleming (+4/-1 : +5/-0 : +9/-1) Between them Fleming, Coffey, and Moultrie seem to be effective, largely because Fleming is a damn horse, turning up everywhere and doing everything; tackling, pressing, passing, advancing…if she could score she’d be an MVP candidate.

Coffey (+6/-0 : +9/-1 : +15/-1) I’m loath to hand out “Woman of the Match” honors for this dreary slog, but Coffey has to be one of the two in consideration. All her usual pluses we see when she’s used (as she often is in KenBall) as a destroyer. I’d love to see her more forward to create and distribute like she does for the Nats. But I’d love a pony, too.

Moultrie (+7/-1 : +7/-1 : +14/-2) The other WotM candidate. Much better corner kick deliveries, too, Liv.

Reyes (+3/-2 : +3/-3 : +6/-5) Snuck her net PMR above water because of the goal. Otherwise, like the rest of her unit, got skinned and/or made goofs that gave the visitors way more than San Diego deserved.

Perry (+2/-1 : +4/-4 : +6/-5) See the Reyes comment. The Portland defense gave San Diego waaayyyy too much time and space and were damn lucky the Wave were too useless to make them pay for it.

Hiatt (+5/-3 : +2/-3 : +7/-6) Same problem here; individual errors and collective issues. A better opponent would have punished the club thoroughly for both.

McKenzie (76′ – +6/-3 : +2/-1 : +8/-4) Best of the backline overall; seldom out of position and recovered well when she was.

Spaanstra (14′ – +1/-1) I’m not sure what to say. Like Castellanos, on the field when the Thorns pulled a point out of their backside. Like Castellanos, I’m not sure what Spaanstra did to help make that happen.

Arnold (+1/-1 : +2/-0 : +3/-1) Huge saves in the 13th, 75th, and 88th minutes. Looked screened on the goal (her dive was slow, and late, but the screening is likely to account for that). The point is, kept the Thorns in this long enough to steal the point. Huge.

Coach Ken: Well, as the saying goes, you can be good, or you can be lucky. You got lucky, and that’s good.

But the more I see of your team the less convincing you look.

There’s not just no understanding or creativity in any sense. The way this team plays going forward is plodding, predictable, and too easily defended. In back the individual mistakes and lack of unit coordination mean the continual danger of a concession.

What the fuck do you do in training?

I don’t get it; why would you think that how you’ve trained them, if this is how you train them, would be successful? It’s been good enough to keep the squad above the red line, sure.

But the real measure this season is Kansas City. Why would you think that training them like this could possibly match up with Kansas City?

What the fuck do you DO in training!?