Thorns FC: Nucking Futz

I could do a deep, long, exhausting dive in the Thorns’ dispirited and dispiriting home loss to Utah.

But why?

I wouldn’t be able to say anything I haven’t said repeatedly all season or provide any new insight into the epic fail.

I could say that the “attack” is slow, pedestrian, predictable, and easily stymied. Partly because of individual issues such as lack of pace and lack of vision, but largely because that – slow, predictable – is how the squad trains, apparently.

But we all know that.

When chances did come, the finishing was appalling.

And we’ve seen a lot of that this season; we already know that.

That the defending, solid and organized for 89 minutes, will implode in a welter of individual derps and squad disorder to ship goals.

And we know that, too.

That there’s a continuing, dysfunctional mismatch between players’ skills and players’ roles, as well as some players who continue to get minutes despite fairly clear issues, either with individual skillsets or fit with the squad.

And we know that, too.

This…

…is not the chart of a match played by a well-led, well-trained, well-disciplined or organized club. Well, at least not the one based here in Portland.

And it has not been all season. The result has been a handful of excellent outings, such as Seattle here on Matchday 16, that punctuate a season dominated by the same…

…damn…

…problems…

…we saw against Utah.

Supposedly the definition of “insanity” is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Well, this season has been full of fucking nuts KenBall, and every time we see an outbreak of quality the next time we see it it’s right back in the dumpster. You’d think someone would see that as…well, fucking nuts, but at this point it doesn’t seem like it.

And I haven’t the slightest idea what the hell is going to change that.

Short Passes

Here’s all the usual; Sofascore’s “momentum” plot:

Not sure what to say other than “daaaaammmmnnnnn…”

Here’s Carlisle-sensei’s fine passing charts, first Portland:

The usual jam in the center circle. We’ll get to this in the comments, but the “forwards” are jammed up because nobody could pass up to them and everyone was tracking back for possession.

Utah:

Or that nuts.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16
Orlando – Home (W)	18
San Diego – Away (D)	32
Houston – Away (W)	21
Bay FC – Away (L)	No data
Washington – Home (W)	16
Chicago – Home (W)	22
Washington – Away (L)	27
Seattle – Home (W)	20
Carolina – Away (D)	26
Kansas City – Home (L)	35
Utah – Home (L)	26

“Not as bad as against KC” is a pretty low goddamn bar.

Fourteen in the first half, 12 in the second. Utah was a sloppy mess before the goal – losing 15 before the break – but only three after halftime as they could sit in, so, that hurt Portland as they pushed for the result.

The turnovers were really a team effort. Sugita lost four, Perry, and Moultrie three each, four players coughed up twice. Nothing dangerously poor, but lots of broken-down attacks and sloppy defensive play…

Mallie McKenzie coughed up a horrific pass in the 83rd minute that K.K. Ream slotted to an unmarked Bianca “Double Bird” St. Georges who only had to go near post to double the Utah lead. Luckily BSG shanked the shot wide left. The Thorns had the muzzle to their temple; the pistol just misfired.

That time.

Press!

Fourteenth match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”. If two players were involved in a press each received a half mark (for attempts) and a half credit for successes.

I’ve seldom seen Portland press as hard and as ineffectively as they did against Utah. The Royals passed around and out of Portland’s press like the Thorns were moving in slow motion.

Utah wasn’t as desperate and, more to the point:
1) worked together; usually Portland’s individuals were tackled by pairs and trios and the Utah fireteams won, and
2) took advantage of the Thorns’ incredibly slow movement off the ball to hammer the pass recipient when the ball arrived.

Match time	Utah presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	8(3) (37.5%)	8(4) (50%)
15-30′	11(9) (81.8%)	12(3) (66.6%)
30-45+2′	9(7) (77.7%)	10(4) (40%)
First half	28(19) (67.8%)	30(11) (36.6%)
45-60′	2(1) (50%)	18(11) (62.2%)
60-75′	7(3) (42.8%)	12(4) (33.3%)
75-90+5′	7(5) (71.4%)	4(3) (75%)
Second half	16(9) (56.2%)	34(18) (52.9%)
Match Total	44(28) (63.6%)	64(29) (45.3%)

My thoughts:
1) Just poor pressing, Portland; poorly planned, poorly executed.
2) Utah had triangles. Portland had lines. Utah worked as a team, Portland as individuals. Utah profited from their setup, Portland did not.
3) No Thorn pressed very well. The players that pressed hard – Coffey, Sugita, Moultrie, Fleming when she came on – were laregly unsuccessful. The players who were successful – McKenzie, Alidou, Tordin – went in to and won very few challenges.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28/20 (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)	28/17 (60.7%)	43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)	18/18 (100%)	100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)	27/17 (62.9%)	42/23 (54.7%)
Bay FC Away (L)	No data	No data
Washington Home (W)	31(15) (48.3%)	61(48) (78.6%)
Chicago Home (W)	31(21) (67.7%)	51(39) (76.4%)
Washington Away (L)	18(17) (94.4%)	25(12) (48%)
Seattle Home (W)	51(27) (52.8%)	42(33) (78.5%)
Carolina Away (D)	47(26) (55.3%)	59(39) (66.1%)
Kansas City Home (L)	43(23) (53.4%)	50(32) (64%)
Utah Home (L)	44(28) (63.6%)	64(29) (45.3%)

Corner Kicks

Five, all long, all in the second half

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
48′	Moultrie	Long	Cleared, recycled several times but eventually McGlynn took it.
56′	Moultrie	Long/Line drive	Cleared out, recycled, but turned over.
58′	Moultrie	Long	Perry’s header was well over.
82′	Moultrie	Long	McGlynn did well to box away.
94′	Moultrie	Long	Into the scrum, pinged around. Finally Fleming shot right at McGlynn.

Not really much of anything.

Player Ratings and Comments

Castellanos (+4/-5 : +1/-3 : +5/-8) Having had an excellent match against Kansas City Reina Deyna reverted to her scullery-maid form against Utah, finding little and achieving less.

Castellanos suffers from Kenball more than any of her forward teammates because she’s not a sniper (so gets little from distance) or pacey (so has trouble getting in behind). Although she’s the target of much fan ire online, she’s as much symptom as toxin.

Here’s what I mean, starting with the Thorns coming forward in the 55th minute;

Moultrie sees Turner making a diagonal run to the inside and hits her with a nice through-ball. Notice two Thorns ghosting in along the Utah backline ready to make a run, like…

…Hina-san starts to, signaling to Turner “O pana tawa mi!!!”

But Turner is already cutting inside and Utah is closing her down. Every other black shirt is bodied up, so…

…Turner turns all the way back towards midfield, eventually dropping a long backpass to Reyes along the far touchline.

The Thorns don’t do this because their opponents make them.

They do it because that’s how Rob Gale trains them.

That and like this:

That’s one of the two “attacking forward pass” styles this club uses; forcing the ball on the ground to a player with an opponent or two on their back or touch-tight.

The other is the long Route One lob, which works occasionally when you have a speed merchant like Caiya Hanks to run under it (or Turner, or Tordin…even Alidou got under a Turner long ball in the 11th minute, but McGlynn was wide awake and claimed it…).

So Castellanos has individual issues – her workrate tends to come and go, and she visibly slacks when she loses possession – but her problems are part of, and exacerbated by, the tactical team problems in attack.

Alidou (57′ – +4/-2 : +1/-0 :+5/-2) Mimi Alidou had similar issues, as well as displacing Jessie Fleming – that’s not on her, mind, but on her manager – when the Thorns needed some steel at the top of midfield. We’ve mentioned the strong attack in the 11th minute but Alidou kind of faded out of the match after that.

Fleming (33′ – +2/-2) Too little, too late, and shockingly ineffective pressing, usually one of her strengths. Did have a pretty almost-chip in the 75th minute that McGlynn – again – got juuuust enough of to keep out.

Turner (67′ – +5/-4 : +5/-5 : +10/-9) Two things can both be true:
1) Turner was hands-down the most effective attacker in black last weekend. Her 2nd minute shot (which we missed viewing at home because NWSL”+” was showing Fucking Seattle) was the best chance of the night (0.44xG, a third of the Thorns’ 1.6, and a post-shot (PS)xG of 0.42). Her 65th minute woodwork (xG 0.7 (distance, tight angle) turned out to be the closest Portland came to a goal (PSxG 0.55).
2) Turner was troublingly wasteful in attack; numerous poor first (or second) touches, poor shooting (other than the above), and turnovers.

As we’ve hammered repeatedly – KenBall doesn’t use attackers well. It’s too slow, too predictable, too crude. Turner has just enough pace to push the limits but not, unlike Hanks or Tordin, to break out of them. So she seems to have lots of games like this; good, but not quite good enough.

Tordin (23′ – +5/-1) Damn near picked McGlynn’s pocket for a gimme putt in the 77th minute that might have changed the nature of the match, but…also didn’t have a shot, and only six touches in almost a half hour, so.

Moultrie (+8/-3 : +8/-2 : +16/-5) Poster kid for the “One good player can’t beat good team play”, and not a threat on goal on a night when the Thorns needed all attacking hands on deck. Largely passed by defensively; not shocking – defending isn’t her strength – but given how much she’s improved, Utah here was a step back.

Sugita (+6/-4 : +2/-3 : +8/-7) Hina-san didn’t play well in general, and then there was this:

That’s damn near a straight red, going in flying cleats-up on her Nadeshiko buddy Mina Tanaka.

What’s disturbing is that, though I can’t find it now, I bookmarked a screenshot showing Sugita leaping into a tackle that looked just as bad a couple or three games ago. That’s not our Hina, and I wonder if her frustration with the squad or the coach or just life in general isn’t building..?

Coffey (+2/-2 : +7/-0 : +9/-2) Bypassed in the opening half, slowly began to impose herself on the match, but by that time chasing and clearly frustrated.

Coffey is a terrific team leader, but needs some sort of tactical vision to lead her troops to, and on nights like this is clearly flailing trying to find it herself. That’s not her job and shouldn’t be.

Obaze (67′ – +4/-1 : +2/-0 : +6/-1) Not the goat on the first concession but tarred with the “defensive derp” brush all the same; the backline as a whole was embarrassed several times by a team that had scored only 12 times in 10 matches prior to visiting Portland this season. That’s, well, embarrassing.

Obaze can play fullback, but she’s not a terrific fullback, which simply drives home the message to the Front Office that with Muller injured and McKenzie green as grass the only other option is Torpey, and that’s…not ideal, either.

McKenzie (23′ – +3/-2) Not really an upgrade. Brutal turnover as discussed above.

Hiatt (+6/-3 : +2/-2 : +8/-5) Okay, so; Hiatt was the goat on the first concession, napping whilst Paige Monaghan bolted right through the backline. That’s one of those “cancels out a thousand attaboys…” kinds of mistakes. Ouch.

Perry (79′ – +1/-1 : +2/-0 : +3/-1) The buzz from her hot early season and PK-convertings has cooled down quite a bit; now looking ever more like just-sort-of-a-squad-player. Everyone needs squad players! But it would have been nice if she’d be more, and that looks increasingly distant. Still a fine passer, though, which might be a strength to continue to build from.

Dufour (11′ – +3/-0) Hell of a golazo, turned the knob up to eleven on the “pure prettiness” scale. Can she do more of the same in more minutes? Will we ever see that? Ken? Any thoughts here?

Reyes (+2/-2 : +8/-0 : +10/-2) The Reyes Problem is that
1) she adds a lot going forward, so she’s valuable pushed up, but
2) she doesn’t have great wheels or anticipation, so a smart, quick opponent catches her upfield and leaves her behind the play.

If Portland had three rock-bound backs and a lockdown keeper that could hold off opponents in time for Reyes to scamper back? That’d work…but we don’t. So that ends up being the Reyes Problem, and so far the Gale Problem is that he doesn’t have a workaround for it.

Arnold (+1/-2 : +1/-3 : +2/-5) What’s frustrating is that Macca Arnold is not an awful goalkeeper. Her fundamentals are largely solid and her faults are largely more visual that functional.

But when she does play poorly – as on the first concession – holy shit does she look awful.

Flatfooted, beaten to her near post? That’s just fucking ugly, and it revs up the haters and the Bixby-stans and their howls are hard to rebut.

Supposedly the team, who sees more of her that we do, likes and trusts her. So I wish to hell she’d stop doing this uglass stuff.

Coach Ken: It’s games like this that baffle me about you.

You set up the club to play a blinder against Seattle.

Then you faff around in Cary but still get the road point

Then you grind out a decent match against the top side in the league.

And then, the fucking Wooden Spoon shows up and you produce this dog’s dinner.

And all through the season your club does the same things: plods through a predictable, pedestrian attack that has huge finishing issues while making catastrophic defensive errors that mar an otherwise solid backline and defensive midfield performance.

WTF, dude?

I can see this stuff. Everyone can.

Why can’t you? Fixing it is on you; it’s your only job!

I’m baffled.

But doing the same damn things over and over and expecting them to win the league?

That’s fucking nuts.