2925 S-2 Briefings: Tabletop

We’ve come to the end of our look at this season’s opponents. The bottom five finishers are here, the middle four here. The tl:dr so far is:
Houston: still pretty crap,
Seattle: a bit better? But didn’t look much improved, so not that much better,
Angel City: probably got the horses, but is Big Sam Laity the right wrangler?,
Utah: Like ACFC, some nice pieces but still looking like a pretty big reach for playoffs,
San Diego: real headscratcher; promising new gaffer, some player upgrades, but ugly rumors of toxicity inside,
Louisville: not great, not awful, but seems to be just that one piece or thing or idea short,
Chicago: Mal Swanson (attack!) vs Coach Donaldson (defend!), and what does that mean if Swanson is out?
Bay FC: Retooled in midseason to finish scary good and stayed that way, and
Carolina: Bizarrely bipolar home/away, also stood pat offseason, so if they can figure out the road…

That’s all very nice, but now we’re looking at the top four finishers of 2024, and they were in a class by themselves as a look at the table shows:

Orlando – Shield and League Double – finished five points above #4 finisher Kansas City…and 21 points over the #5, Carolina.

Carolina finished only 14 points above Houston the Spoon ten places below them.

This was a season-long feature, not a bug. Here’s the weekly positions of the top six finishers:

Forget the opening month – that’s everyone sorting themselves out – from Matchday 3 or 4 these four sides pretty much owned the league. This looks more like the WSL or Frauenbundesliga or Ligue 1 Feminin…a handful of big clubs tussling for the top and the makeweights bumbling along playing Washington Generals when the four badasses come to town.

The ironic part is that the “big clubs” were:
Orlando – the longtime “Shame” and perennial bottom-feeder,
Washington – “always the bridesmaid”,
Gotham – as “Sky Blue” the mockery of the league (portable toilets..!), and
Kansas City – the expansion club that had been the most consistently decent of the four.

Let’s take them in reverse order.

Kansas City Current

What happened last season?
Before we go, let’s ponder the Current for a moment for the sheer insanity of their history:
2021: Expansion year. Wooden Spoon,
2022: Finished fifth (on goal differential within the top three), clawed past the play-in and semifinal to lose to us in the Final,
2023: tire fire, 11th of 12,
2024: 4th of 14, lost to the eventual champions in the semifinal.

Kansas City; come for the barbeque, stay for the complete and utterly nutzo unpredictability!

Vlatko & Co. came SO close last year. The Current were fourth by a single point below Washington and Gotham, and had they nicked that point would have been second overall because their GD (+26) was better than the two clubs above them.

The Current were remarkably 1) successful and 2) consistent over two long stretches; between the NWSL-After-Dark Opening Day win over us they went 10-5-0, 39GF, 20GA up to early July. Then from early September to Decision Day they went 6-2-0, 15GF, 3GA.

But July and August?

0-0-3, 3GF, 8GA.

Ouch.

What rubbed that in even harder was that two of the three losses were to Orlando and Washington, but the third was to The Damned Courage, a team they’d scraped by 1-nil in May and would do the same to in the quarterfinal.

The obvious “big story” of KCC in 2024 was Temwa Chawinga. Twenty goals (35% of the team total), five assists. It’s not unfair to compare her to Sam Kerr; Chawinga had that kind of season. She was a Force of Nature:

But Vlatko’s attack didn’t stop there. Lo’eau LaBonta added 6G/1A, Vanessa DiBernardo 5G/6A, Beatriz 5G/4A. Only Debinha was something of a disappointment, 3G, but with Chawinga tearing up the league? Who cared?

Unsurprisingly, KCC was the most speedy, direct attack in the league:

I mean…you have a high-speed bulldozer? Why fiddle-fuck around with it?

On the other end, though…Kansas City shipped the most goals of the top four. We’ve talked here about how 2017’s Goalkeeper of the Year has struggled recently, and A.D. Franch had a very poor 2024, -0.13 (post-shot xG against minus GA per 90min).

Her backup, Almuth Schult, went +0.38, so Vlatko finally had to accept that his original starter was cooked and yanked Franch in September. You can see the difference in the two good runs above; March-June, about 2GF to every 1GA, September-Semifinal 5GF to 1GA.

The Current got revenge in the quarterfinal, dropping Carolina 1-nil, but Orlando’s defense had scouted Kansas City perfectly, isolated Chawinga, and send KCC home convincingly.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out: Almuth Schult (GK), A.D. Franch (GK)
In: Lorena (GK), Jereko (MF), Haley Hopkins (F)

Thoughts?
Chawinga. What more do you need to say? Still the most dangerous attacker in the league, and her supporting cast hasn’t changed.

I think the difference Vlatko needs to make is in back. I have no real feel for Lorena as keeper. “Not as good as Schult” would be my first thought without any real metrics to back it up. The Current were vulnerable to setpieces last season – their open play xG against was the lowest in the league (but they shipped 13GA on ~10xGa, so, Franch…) – but setpieces? Trouble; xGa 4.5, mid-table dross, and 7GA, so also Franch.

If this squad can tighten up in back and Chawinga continues her wild run..?

Prediction?
Could win the league. Look sure to be top-four again, could be top-two with better defense. But could stumble if the defending isn’t improved.

Can we beat them?
Not only couldn’t we (0-0-2, 5GF, 9GA) the Current ran through our defense like shit through a tin horn. Unless Ken figures everything out, these people will own us again this season.

NJ/NY Gotham FC

What happened last season?
The defending champions sort of staggered out of the gate; 1-2-2, 3GF, 5GA. Their only win? Us. They were 11th of 14 after Matchday 5

From there, however, the Bats went on a tear, 16-3-2, 38GF, 15GA to finish third.

They stomped us 2-1 in the quarterfinal in a match that Ken only managed to keep close by completely turtling; the Thorns goal was a freakish Reilyn Turner header. Washington took them to overtime and won on penalties to close the Bats’ season.

Up front Gotham were sort of a mixed bag; fairly average in open play, not especially pacey or overly deliberate, just sort of middling:

The Bats were decent on setpiece positioning (top xG numbers by a fraction over Kansas City and Orlando) but not on finishing; 4GF compared to KCC and Orlando with similar xG but 7GF.

Esther led Gotham with 7G/4A, but right behind her were Rose Lavelle (7G/1A) and Ella Stevens (7G/4A). Yazmeen Ryan chipped in 5G/5A and Lynn Williams 4G/2A. Esther in particular was a “something out of nothing” creator; her 9 goals were on only 6.5xG. Stevens was another (7G/5.1 xG).

Gotham’s biggest weapon was in back, however.

Well…sorta. Their defense started well forward of their goal, with a forechecking high press that went after opponents aggressively (their “opponent passes per defensive action” number was 8.8, lowest in the league) and deep in the attack zone. Here’s their “zones of control” map paired with Chicago, the lowest low block in the league:

The key is in gray; those are the “fought-over” areas. Gotham didn’t concede opponents a damn thing, even deep in their own wings. The moment you got possession they’d go after you. Amoros made this exhausting business work by, as Carlisle-sensei says:

“They not only press in numbers, they frequently swap positions to cover for one another. This saves some energy, but also ensures everyone knows the roles and duties of each position, which helps them be fluid and incisive in attack as well.”

Then, if you got past all that, Ann-Katrin Berger stood between the sticks; 14GA on a post-shot xG against of 23, +0.37 overall; Gotham’s +0.45 (which includes Cassie Miller’s four starts) was the best keeper against-the-shot stat in the league by a huge margin (Utah’s +0.27 was second).

So well-organized attack, lockdown defense? Yeah, that’s kind of a “top of the league” thing.

Significant changes from 2024?
Oh, Holy Hell.

Something seems to have been badly wrong within Gotham’s locker room in 2024. Success on the pitch was followed by a detonation of the squad after the season ended. Scuttlebutt was that the flight wasn’t coincidence; that the players were fleeing something…but what? Problems with Amoros’ style? Locker room toxicity? Someone(s) else in the organization? Whatever the trouble, it removed some good pieces.

Out: Cassie Miller (GK), Sam Hiatt (D), Matiane Lopez (MF), Delaine Sheehan (MF), Lynn Williams (F), Yazmeen Ryan (F)
In: Shelby Hogan (GK), Stella Nyamekye (MF), Gabi Portilho (F)

That said, a lot of the big pieces are still here. Berger in goal (with Hogan replacing Miller), most of the backline and DMs, Lavelle in midfield, Esther and Stevens upfront.

Thoughts?
Of the top four Gotham is, to me, the biggest question mark.

Somewhat for the players lost. Williams, Ryan, Purce were all useful pieces up top, as were Lopez and Sheehan in the middle. Portilho and Nyamekye don’t seem the same proven quality.

But the real unknown-unknown is “did something happen within the squad in 2024, and, if so, what was it, and is it still a problem?”

One thing that made 2024 Gotham work was the team cohesion that made all that role- and duty-exchange work. It sure looks like that exploded after the season., but…did it? Are there hard feelings still lingering, and could they prevent this squad from rebuilding?

And I have no idea.

Prediction?
Of all the teams we’re looking at Gotham is my “most likely to drop out of the top four” candidate. I still can’t see them dropping below the red line, but into sixth, say, or seventh, if Bay FC or Carolina catches fire? Sure.

I think we’ll have to watch them carefully in the early going.

Can we beat them?
Like most of these top-four teams, not in 2024, no. But. This squad is one that might be vulnerable…if their issues persist and Ken gets his shit together and builds a good squad.

My lack of confidence in his doing that is all that prevents me from predicting a season split from this matchup. As things stand? We’ll be lucky to nick a point.

Washington Spirit

What happened last season?
The Spirit story really begins at the end of 2023, when the club, after finishing 8th of 12, canned Coach Parsons and started a genuinely world-wide search for a new gaffer. They found him at Barca, and hired Jonatan Giráldez to take over after his Barcelona side wrapped up the 2023-24 season. Meanwhile another La Liga coach, Adrián González, ran the club until Giraldez took over in early July.

Both managers did well; Gonzalez to 10-1-4, 29GF, 17GA, Giraldez 8-1-2, 22GF, 7GA. Here I yield the floor to Andre Carlisle, who blogs extensively about the Spirit. Here’s his description of what changed with Giraldez:

“Giráldez’s tweaks have been minor adjustments to help secure an identity and simplify roles…(including)…the number of counter attacking and high press shots went down while those other metrics went up, which suggest a lesser reliance on manufacturing those sorts of chances likely due to an increased ability to use the ball more effectively in possession…(and a)…higher line of confrontation coupled with a slight bump in allowing fewer passes per defensive action (PPDA; 9.14 to 8.69) seems to be introducing slightly more defensive risk—which they mitigate with rest defense and that slightly higher line that gives them more time to react when things go wrong—to increase their counterpressures…and possession.”

This all worked like a mechanical ass-kicker and Washington rolled into the postseason in 2nd. After Matchday 1 the Spirit were never below the red line; after Matchday 3 never out of the top four.

Washington was a diversified team in attack; they could do possession (Trinity Rodman and Ouleymata Sarr, y’think?) but also had a transition game; their “style” is as close to completely balanced as any in the league outside Gotham:

Obviously Rodman was their big gun (8G/6A) with Sarr (8G/4A). Right behind those two were Ashley Hatch (7G/3A), chance-creator Croix Bethune (5G/10A), and Makenna Morris (5G/2A).

The Spirit were a bread-and-butter squad; none of their scorers had to make magic. Rodman could (non-penalty goals – xG/90min of +0.7) but none of the others needed to go above +0.1.

Defensively the Spirit tended to be pretty combative:

Like Gotham, the gray areas are the giveaway; Washington would fight you in your own half (and keep in mind this is a season average, so Giraldez’ higher line is a bit pushed back by Gonzalez’ earlier lower block.

The Spirit were terrific against open-play attacks; their xG-against open play attacks (10.5 – compare that to hapless Utah’s 27…) was second-lowest in the league and just barely above Kansas City’s. They were only average (10th of 14) against setpieces, but Aubrey Kingsbury was sharp in goal; 28 conceded on a post-shot xG against of 32.4.

So it wasn’t surprising to see the Spirit in the Final, but once there Orlando made (what I thought was – because of what looked like a clear foul in the buildup – a shifty) Barbara Banda goal stand up to take the star.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out: nobody, really. All the players released were squad-players
In: Narumi Miura (MF),

So…not much. If it’s not broken, why fix it?

Thoughts?
Other than the obvious “this is an excellent side”?

Well…this is an excellent side. Multiple weapons, solid in back, well-managed…frankly, the only real issue I have is with the appearance that the Kang Soccer Empire looks like doing what pissed me off about Aulas’ ownership of Seattle; loaning players from one of their entities to the other. That said, the player in question (defender Kysha Scylla) appears to be fairly average at best, so unlike Aulas’ attempt to stock his NWSL affiliate with trophy lunkers.

Prediction?
Three clubs look like legitimate Shield contenders; this outfit, Kansas City, and Orlando.

Last season Washington had three tries at Orlando and lost them all. They split the meetings with Kansas City, and each was a beatdown; 4-1 Spirit in Washington, 3-nil Current in Kansas City.

We’ll talk about Orlando, but I see both Washington and Kansas City as nearly unchanged. So I think it’s going to come down to a combination of luck, scheduling, and preparation. But definitely top-four, probably top-two again, but in which order? Dunno.

Orlando Pride

What happened last season?
For a moment there I thought the Pride was not just going to smash their longtime image as “The Shame”, perennial Spoon-licker, but actually have a go at an undefeated season.

(for you other stats/record geeks the current NWSL holder of “closest to” that honor is the 2018 Carolina squad that came within a single goal (to the old Royals, 0-1 loss in Cary) of going undefeated over 24 games.)

Well…they came so close, but after clinching the Shield they dropped the “It’s A Trap!” game here in October (and then another at Gotham) before finishing 1st, 18-6-2, 46GF, 20GA, +26GD.

Like their top-four counterparts Gotham and Washington, Orlando’s attack is balanced:

They generate a ton of shots and expected goals; off turnovers from pressing, off setpieces, off buildup play. Their striker, Barbara Banda (13G/6A) is at the unreal/Chawinga/Kerr-level, and behind her comes Marta (9G/1A), who apparently has a picture of a very aged Brazilian woman in her attic, Summer Yates (5G/1A), Adriana (4G/1A) and Ally Watt (3G/1A).

All this is in front of Seb Hines’ intriguing mid-block defense. Here’s Carlisle-sensei to explain it better than I can:

“The Pride typically allow passes in the middle of the pitch, but as soon as the ball goes in either vertical direction (or is funneled to a side where they can spring a trap), they pounce. This disrupts buildup while allowing them to have a high pressing presence without sacrificing loads of space in behind. It requires discipline and a lot of mobility from each line, and thanks to exceptional player recruitment Orlando has everything they need.”

Anything that gets past the backline has to deal with keeper Anna Moorhouse, whose +0.25 above her post-shot xG against (20GA, PSxGa 25.6) meant that she was a wall. That played into the Pride’s success against setpieces; despite conceding an xG of 3.46 – decent, but slightly worse than Seattle and San Diego and a full goal worse than Gotham – Orlando conceded no goals from dead ball plays. None. Zero.

Hines & Marta & Banda & Co. rode this tiger all the way to the Double.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out: Adriana (F)
In: Prisca Chilufya (MF)

So stood pat, mostly. Adriana hurts a bit and Chilufya is kind of a question mark, her c.v. has her with 14 goals in 48 matches over two years with Juarez in the LigaMX Feminil but, as always with LMXF it’s really difficult to get context. Is she that good? Or is the LMXF defending that bad?

Thoughts?
Pretty much “same as for Washington”; this is an excellent, well-managed, balanced, effective squad that returns almost all of it’s 2024 Double-winning roster. What more remains to be said?

Prediction?
Could repeat. Could repeat The Double (which would be fucking amazing!). Or could run into a slightly improved Washington, or have an off day against Kansas City and get knocked out in the quarter or semi or Final.

Certain top-four, probable top-two, but once there…yeah.

Can we beat them?
We did, once, last season, in the most improbable fashion imaginable. I’d argue that the chances of that happening again are almost nil. Hopefully we can keep the match from spiraling out of control, Ken will have figured out how to actually “tactics”, everyone in red will be healthy and on-form, and…we will only lose by one goal, not multiples.

Final Thoughts

From here 2025 looks likely to be a lot like 2024 except:
1) there might be a swap in the top four; Gotham descending to earth, someone else (Bay FC for my money…) rising to replace them,
2) the bottom ten will likely sort out between the froth at the top near or just over the redline – teams like us or Chicago or Carolina – and the real no-hopers like Houston.

I know I’ve been banging this drum, but I think the Thorns’ 2025 is going to depend on:
1) Can Ken figure out the roster and tactical issues he had in 2024,
2) Can everyone stay healthy, and
3) If #1 is “no”, how quickly will the FO pull the KenRipcord, and who do they replace him with?

We’ll see the 2025 squad this weekend, and then let’s discuss how things looked.

Next: The Great Carrot Festival!