2024 Final Grades: Goalkeepers

Since we don’t have much to talk over at the moment – the Final is set, #1 Orlando versus #2 Washington, and there’s no news out of Thorns FOLand – let’s begin our look back at the 2024 squad, starting from the goalline forward, with the goalkeepers themselves.

In case you’ve forgotten, the Thorns have five of ’em:

But this past season…wait. Just a sec.

Before we start in on this, I need to repost the content advisory thing I always do before this “Final Grades” series. Okay, so…

The Tipping Toddler (A Safety Advisory)

Before we go on, let me start with this.

I’m not here to slag off on the Thorns as a team, or any individual player. As a fan I love and support the squad, in victory or in defeat.

That’s not the point of these analyses.

Professional soccer, all sport beyond pure recreational-level sport, is about not giving away the gift. It’s about excelling both as individuals and teams. For a team to excel the players and coaches have to be ruthless about examining their strengths – and their weaknesses. That’s what good players, and good teams do; that’s part of what makes them good.

Okay. So…back up there, that part about “loving and supporting” the team?

For many fans, perhaps most fans, that’s enough. They want to cheer and sing, to enjoy the efforts of their team and go home energized, full stop.

That’s great. That’s wonderful. That’s a healthy sort of fandom.

I’m not that sort of fan.

I can’t just cheer and sing and enjoy. I can’t just look at the pretty machine and love and admire how it goes.

I like taking the clockwork apart to see how it runs. I like to pull it apart to the pieces and then stare at the pieces thinking, and then try and jigger them back together to figure out if the damn thing is running perfectly, or whether there’s a better way to make it go.

I like to take the bits over to friends and lay them out, and then discuss what we all see there, and then debate and differ over what works and what doesn’t and whether we could build a better machine, and, if so, how.

So if you’re the love-and-support-is-perfect-full-stop sort of fan?

This blog series might not be your thing.

And that’s fine. We both love the Thorns, we just do it differently. There’s no one right way to be a fan.

But as I said – I’m not that fan, so this is your warning.

It’s like the little picture on the side of the five-gallon bucket, where the toddler is toppling headfirst into the bucket and drowning. This thing…

It’s your warning that danger might be inside this page, and that you might hear something about players you like, or love, that might upset you.

I don’t have to like that – and, hell, I don’t enjoy writing unhappy things about players I respect, who are out training and working hard – but I won’t pretend it won’t happen.

So now you’ve seen the tipping toddler and are warned.

We’re going to look at some things that may not be pretty.

Are we still good?

Okay, then.

The GoalkeeperS

When we did this at the end of 2023 we had only three keepers to look at:

“The Thorns carried the usual three goalkeepers in 2023. One of them, Lauren Kozal, was a 2023 draftee who was injured for much of the season and never played. We’re going to hope she has recovered and pass over her. The other is Bella Bixby, who we’ll discuss later. The Thorns added a draftee keeper, Katherine Asman from Penn State, and we discussed her in the “Drafts and Deals” post. She’s not included here.”

As the picture above shows, in theory all these three are still here, and the club added Mackenzie Arnold to Shelby Hogan (who played two matches in ’23) and those two were the 2024 starters.

Let’s dispense with the others first.

Kat Asman

is…still here.

Other than that, I got nothing. Her socials don’t show any activity since the Thorns drafting her in January. She’s not on loan, and she didn’t play a minute all season. She was on the bench for the July “Summer Cup” matches (3-1 away loss to Utah, Kozal in goal, and the 1-nil home win over Seattle, Hogan in goal) but that’s as close as she got.

Grade: Incomplete.

We know absolutely nothing about Asman past her NCAA record (which is decent, but…) which is little help in figuring out whether she can, or will, make the jump to professional player.

The Thorns FO appears to have little investment, or interest, in her, so it’s difficult to assume that she’ll be here next season. I’d be unsurprised to see her waived.

Lauren Kozal

…on the other hand, has seen some FO interest.

She played one match in 2024, the Summer Cup game noted above, and was on the bench for the others. Since September she’s been on loan to the USL Tampa Bay Sun – which plays through the winter, so there’s opportunity there and a sign that the Thorns are interested in developing Kozal – but has yet to appear for Tampa Bay or anywhere else, so how MUCH interest is hard to say.

In our one “data point” Kozal shipped three goals in Utah. I can’t find any metrics to get a sense of how much the lack of solid defending in front of her contributed to them – at least the third was a deflection-sort-of own-goal, so there’s that – but the scoreline doesn’t flatter her.

Grade: Incomplete (Passing).

Of all the keepers I’m most undecided on Kozal. On the “she’ll be here next season” side of the ledger is the loan, and her appearance in the Cup tie. On the “well…maybe not” is her role in the Cup loss, and just the overall logjam of keepers. While Asman seems more likely to be closer to the drop, seeing Kozal get waived or traded wouldn’t shock me.

The last unseen-in-2024 keeper is…

Bella Bixby

…who took the year off to have a kiddo.

All good wishes and hopes for happy Bixby family aside, her maternity leave came either at a really good time or really bad time, because her 2023 was…not great.

Here’s my conclusion from that season:

“No, actually, that’s (Bixby’s) the worst (of 2023 goalkeeper metrics). -3.5 goals-conceded-to-post-shot-xG-against, and -0.17G/PSxG per 90 minutes; the worst goals-conceded to post-shot xG against ratio in the league of all the starting keepers. Bixby cost the Thorns nearly a goal every five games.

All the problems we had been complaining about Bixby last season – the hesitancy in the air, the clumsy hands, the poor positioning, the bad judgement – exploded in (the final regular season) match, bringing Bixby’s season to a brutally ugly close.

Grade: F “

That’s bad. As in “reeeeally bad”. So her 2024 mark has to be heavily influenced by that history.

2024 Grade: Incomplete (Failing)

Given the keeper troubles in 2024 (we’ll get there..!) normally I’d feel pretty confident that Bixby has at least an even chance or better at winning the starting job back. But given her 2023? No. Unless she’s been working with a coach who can help her solve her problems? I’d presume she’s behind the two 2024 starters, beginning with…

Makenzie Arnold

…who was signed from West Ham in July.

She started the August 31 Matchday 18 against Bay FC (1-3 home loss) and was pretty meh (my PMR was +5/-3, and her metrics were poor). Arnold then played four more matches, going 0-1-4 overall before going out with some sort of injury.

Here’s her FBRef match log:

Perhaps the highlight of Arnold’s 2024 was in the home loss to Chicago; she saved a penalty, something no other Thorns keeper managed to do in 2024. That aside, however, her work here was…well, let’s look at her career stats:

This is what worried me when the club signed Arnold; her record for Brisbane and West Ham wasn’t very good; her shot-stopping – and that’s the number in the furthest-right-hand column; “Post-shot xG minus goals against per 90 minutes” (PSxG-GA/90). A red negative value means the keeper shipped more goals that her post-shot xG per game predicted. A green positive value means the keeper saved her club goals they should have theoretically have conceded.

By that metric Arnold had the best season of her career in Portland.

How did that compare to the average NWSL goalkeeper?

Not bad!

Obviously Arnold’s small N means that her numbers should be taken with a great deal of caution. But they suggest that she was better than her record says she is, and that she might do well if she has a better head coach and more time to work in with her squad.

One significant strength is that Arnold’s play out of the back is significantly better than any of the Angerer-line of keepers:

Hogan’s 2023 N is too small to be more than a hiccup, as her 2024 completion percentage dropped to within the error range of Bella Bixby’s 2023 ratio of 27%.

If you remember her playing days, Angerer’s specialty was shot-stopping (especially penalties) but her distribution was only decent. Her keepers never excelled at playing the ball out (Britt Eckerstrom was probably the best I recall) and Hogan is no exception.

I know Arnold took a lot of stick from the fandom this season. I think this stemmed largely from;
1) the ridiculous logjam at keeper to begin with; her signing (when other obvious holes in the roster went unaddressed) looked like just one more Karina LeBlanc fuckup, then
2) her being thrown into the starting XI seemingly without a legitimate need to displace Hogan, and then
3) the run of poor results during her starts.

I get all of that.

All the same, her final grade is:

Grade: C/C+

Arnold is, in my assessment, a very average NWSL keeper. I think her PSxG-GA/90 is an anomaly of a small N; I don’t think she’d come close to Ann-Katrin Berger or Mandy Haught over a twenty-plus game season.

I also don’t think she’s a poor keeper…in this league. In the WSL or D1F or the FBL? Maybe. But I think if she’d had a sturdier defense in front of her she’d have been somwhere in the top half of the NWSL keepers; her metrics suggest at least that much.

The real question, though, is what we’ll discuss when we conclude our keeper survey with

Shelby Hogan

…long-term reserve whose chance for the starting job arrived with the first ultrasound of Baby Bixby…

…but who opened the season in what may have been the most spectacular implosion I’ve ever seen from a Thorns keeper:

“Hogan (+1/-2 : +0/-2 : +1/-4) Let’s be brutal; neither goalkeeper who played at CPKC Stadium last week had a good day:

As of today Shelby Hogan is statistically the worst goalkeeper in the league, Franch the next-worst. At least there’s lots of room for improvement. Let’s call it the world’s worst case of rookie nerves and hope that the improvement comes quickly.”

Well…

The improvement DID come, but not quickly. Here’s my comments from the following matches, starting with Matchday 2 (Gotham home loss 0-1):

“Hogan (+0/-1 : +0/-3 : +0/-4) Not really at fault on the concession, which was on her backline, but Shelby Hogan still doesn’t look composed. Perfect example; 65th minute, Jenna Nighswonger (?) strikes a long free kick that Hogan tracks all the way in…then fumbles the take, spilling the ball with a Gotham player at her doorstep.”

Racing at home on Matchday 3 (2-2 draw):

“Hogan (+1/-0 : +1/-2 : +2/-2) Not really at fault on the concessions, which were 99.9% on her backline. Still needs a bit more confidence and swagger. Keeping is 90% head, and I’m not sure where Hogan’s head is right now.”

Matchday 4, 2-0 away loss to The Damned Courage and the end of the line for Mike Norris:

“Hogan (+0/-0 : +0/-1 : +0/-1) Not really at fault…I’m not ready to give up. But Hogan needs a stone hard blinder to regain her and her backline’s confidence. And it needs to be soon.”

Here she is on Matchday 7 in the third-in-the-row-of-six Ken wins, this one at Bay FC:

“Hogan (+2/-0 : +5/-1 : +7/-1) Not really at fault on the concessions, and had huge saves off Kundananji in the 17th minute, Boade in the 71st minute, and Oshoala in the 90+3rd minute. Hogan still doesn’t look entirely convincing, but a huge part of that is her backline is actively hurting her. Both she and they still need a solid game against a good opponent.”

Finally, here’s Matchday 8, the best of the Ken Six, home won over Washington:

“Hogan (+1/-0 : +3/-0 : +4/-0) Finally! A complete, solid, outstanding game from Shelby Hogan…Hell of a match at a time when Hogan, and her team, needed her to have one.”

I think the problems were that:
1) Hogan’s horrible early season start got the club squirrelly, just when
2) Arnold became available, and the thought was to snap Arnold up to solve the Hogan Problem…

…but the problem with that is that it was “solving a problem” which no longer really existed with an “upgrade” that wasn’t.

Arnold’s career stats suggest that she’s not grossly better technical keeper than Hogan.

Here’s the FBRef “scouting reports” for the two back in July:

And here they are now:

I don’t see huge daylight there.

For completeness, here’s Hogan’s match log:

And her 2024 stats in context of her previous seasons:

Here’s what I wrote after the Orlando trap-game win:

“Arnold is better technically – +0.36 based on post-shot xG minus goals allowed per 90 minutes – compared to Hogan’s -0.06. Arnold is still better distributing, tho Ken’s “tactics” don’t allow the Thorns to really take advantage of that. The two are statistically close enough that the PSxG-GA/90 different may well be within the range of error.

The real question is how confident does her squad feel in front of one or the other?

A team lacking confidence in the hands between the sticks will often play tight and scared, knowing any mistake might ship a crap goal. A confident keeper often means a confident squad that can take risks and play with some swagger.

Who has the squad’s confidence?

I don’t know.”

And I still don’t.

Grade: C (“D” for the ugly season start, rising to a solid “B” for the climb back into close-to-league-median form, but the continued minor derps drags the overall grade back down to pure mediocrity).

Oh, wait. Do we need to discuss

Emily Alvarado?

Nope.

Goalkeepers – Conclusions

The keeper situation this season and the prognosis for 2025 is difficult to suss out because the keeper situation was so complicated and the defending was so poor.

The two starters look fairly similar; Arnold is a bit better distributing, but KenBall is too disorganized to take advantage of that very often. Hogan has some technical issues and is poorer playing out. Both made some lapses in judgement. Both were also brutally exposed by the defense in front of them.

Bixby‘s 2023 was a trashfire. It’s difficult to tell whether she can rebound from that.

Neither Kozal nor Asman got real minutes, so it’s impossible to tell what they are or where they stand on the depth chart other than “low”.

ALL of them – at least the three we know anything about – appear to be supremely average NWSL keepers.

AND we’re going to get a new general manager at some point, who will need to decide:
1) which, if any, of these players is the starting keeper, or
2) whether to scrap the lot and look for a genuinely top international, with the caveat that
3) whether keeper is a high-enough priority to spend that given the other roster needs.

Here’s what I’m guessing assuming the answer to #2 is “no”:

1 – Arnold is likely to be at the top of the depth chart. She’s an international, she’s got better metrics, and is better distributing the ball.

2/3 – Bixby and Hogan will be the likely reserves…IF they’re both here. As starting keepers one or the other are legitimate trade bait. One of them might make up part of an attractive package for a bigger hole-filling trade.

4/5 – Kozal and Asman are as likely to be waived or traded as kept. Kozal seems fractionally less likely to get cut, but is also a more likely trade piece. Given how little we know I really don’t have any idea.

The Bhathals, LeBlanc, Norris, and Ken have put a fair number of turds in whoever-the-new-GM-is’s pocket.

Sorting out this Keeper Menage is only one of them.

Next: The Defenders