Instructive graphic from Alison Gale (via Dan Lauletta):
Couple of things to pick out of this.
Orlando and Washington bossed the league. Orlando in particular; 2.3 points per game? Here’s the historical record:
| Season | Shield Winner | Points | Games | Points/game |
| 2013 | Western NY | 38 | 22 | 1.72 |
| 2014 | Seattle | 54 | 24 | 2.25 |
| 2015 | Seattle | 43 | 20 | 2.15 |
| 2016 | Portland | 41 | 20 | 2.05 |
| 2017 | North Carolina | 49 | 24 | 2.04 |
| 2018 | North Carolina | 57 | 24 | 2.375 |
| 2019 | North Carolina | 49 | 24 | 2.04 |
| 2021 | Portland | 44 | 24 | 1.83 |
| 2022 | Seattle | 40 | 22 | 1.81 |
| 2023 | San Diego | 37 | 22 | 1.68 |
| 2024 | Orlando | 60 | 26 | 2.3 |
Not quite the monster season The Damned Courage had in 2018 but near as dammit.
And, it’s worth noting that Carolina won the 2018 race in a canter; we were second on 42 points, so 15 back.
This season the Pride had two clubs finish within four points, and the top four were separated by only five points.
Imagine if they’d anticipated the trap game here…
The other two top clubs finished going in opposite directions; Gotham upwards, KC down. Both swapped places from midseason, when the Current were top for four games and Gotham were laboring in upper-mid-table.
Gotham climbed gradually up to third after Matchday 9, KCC dropped to fourth after Matchday 13. That can have an effect on the playoff form, but we’ll have to see how much. They’re still both solid squads.
If Bay FC had avoided an ugly early season we might be talking about them in the top four. Their Afrika Korps + Castellanos just took a bit too long to gel, and their defending was crap, giving up multiple goals several times. If their management can address the latter, particularly, they might be a contender next season.
The tomato cans – Houston, Seattle, Angel City, Utah – were rubbish pretty much all season. Which, in a free-agency era, suggests a major malfunction at the GM-HC-ownership level. You don’t have to depend on drafting or trading anymore. Need weapons? Buy ’em!
Houston, in particular…could that club survive without the connection to the MLS Dash? They’re awful and have pretty much always been awful. Angel City has cratered after a promising expansion season. Seattle is a hot mess; I’m not sure how much that is because 1) the OL ownership period was a welter of poor management and lack of attention from the French club, and 2) Laura Harvey has hit the wall. Utah was as shit as everyone and their dog (including me…) expected them to be.
The big question out of all that is; are any or all of the cans capable of improving? Orlando suggests that smart ownership and a good GM/HC pairing means yes. But do any of these turkeys have that, or look likely to get that?
Which brings me to…
The Thorns didn’t really “win” a playoff spot; everyone below them pretty much handed it to us.
If you want to be generous you can give Ken credit for the six-match in streak between Matchdays 5 and 10. That built enough of a points-cushion that even going 4-9-3 down the stretch couldn’t sink the club below the red line given how badly everyone below them were bottling it. That’s…kinda damning with faint praise.
The Thorns pulled off a Sinclair miracle win on Matchday 26, and hopefully that will spark something in the squad. It helped that everyone who needs to be healthy is healthy, and that’s also huge for this Sunday.
But the bottom line is that we find ourselves limping into the playoffs again on a run of poor form, just as we did in 2019, just as we did in 2022, just as we did in 2023; same as it ever was.
The only thing left is to hope that this ends like it did in ’22 and not like the other two seasons.
You may ask yourself, “What is that beautiful house?”
You may ask yourself, “Where does that highway go to?”
And you may ask yourself, “Am I right, am I wrong?”
And you may say to yourself, “My God, what have I done?”
Update 11/9: So the left side of the bracket semifinal is set:
Orlando-Chicago was just a rout, 4-1, as you’d expect #1 vs #8. So, yeah.
In the other quarterfinal our “vaudevillian cane” blogger totally got Kansas City-Carolina:
“The Current mash the gas and force you to cope with tidal waves of multi-faceted attackers while the Courage take their time, enjoy the scenery, and maybe stop at a farmer’s market along the way.
Kansas City scored the most goals in in a season in league history and ended up fourth, while the Courage scored the third fewest goals among the eight playoff teams and finished fifth.”
And that’s what happened; KCC got an 8th minute flurry in front of goal, Carolina couldn’t clear, Chawinga poked in the rebound, and Carolina’s slow buildup and low productivity couldn’t produce the equalizer. Perfect shitstorm for The Damned, not that I’m crying about that, mind.
So it’s #1 vs #4 on that side. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.
Update update 11/9: Our vaudevillian cane runs down Portland-Gotham.
“Playoffs can be vibe-y affairs, and external motivations can become rocket fuel in constricted winner-take-all settings. Gotham seem to be good enough to be immune to all that, but would you be surprised if Venom voice Sophia Smith showed up?”
FWIW, he picks Gotham 3-nil.
This…
…is worth discussing, because as our vaudevillian notes:
“Portland, meanwhile, are just weird. They’re still a super talented team individually, but the pieces don’t fit to provide enough balance. The above is an xG trendline that measure the average xG they’ve conceded versus xG created. The blue line is when they yeeted Mike Norris and Rob Gale took over.
Results weren’t good so I get making the change, but as the vibes of a new manager bump wore off things got worse and worse. Some of this is the result of missing Sophia Smith, but the Thorns started consistently conceding more xG than they were creating, and that hasn’t come close to flipping in the second half of the season.”
Yep. The scoring is a problem, but it’s the defending that’s THE problem.
Like The Damned, Portland has to keep things tight tomorrow. If they concede early – especially if they concede quickly more than once – and have to chase it could get reeeeal ugly most quick smart.
- Thorns FC: At the waning of the year - November 13, 2024
- This is not my beautiful house… - November 7, 2024
- Thorns FC: What becomes a legend most? - November 5, 2024
Hmm, I didn’t even realize Gale has a winning record, barely – 10-9-3. It’s felt so dreary rooting for this club for so long, Sinc appreciation game excepted, that I’d have guessed he was a ways below .500. Still not good enough for the Thorns, but better than I thought.
But it’s not really the sum, it’s the parts, of that record.
The six wins that started it were:
Houston (can)
Chicago (good team, but heading into a run of mediocre form at the time)
Bay FC (struggling in the early season, and 2-3, so almost a coin flip)
Washington (genuinely good game)
Seattle (can)
Houston (can)
So three cans out of the six, BFC – which was kind of a can at that point – and Chicago so a bit of good a bit of lucky, and one legitimately excellent win.
Since then 4-9-3, legitimately awful and two of the four wins are the Orlando trap game and Sinc Miracle. A third is a can (San Diego). All three of the draws are cans (ACFC, Seattle, and Utah).
So when you actually break it down KenBall looks pretty bad. Certainly no better than I think of it, anyway.
The only ray of sunshine for the playoff game is that we will have our best players available. With Smith, Weaver, Coffey and Sugita all ready to play we have a chance. It won’t be the tactics of the game, we are going to roll with supported hero ball. Lets hope the players can rise above it all and shine!
Plus TheSincMiracleGame might just light some fires. I think the ACFC win might have been a pretty huge emotional high, a massive dopamine hit for a squad that needed it. That and, as you say, important pieces all back in place and healthy.
But. Tactics DO matter. Smart opponents have figured out Smith Hero-ball. Tweed didn’t, because she’s not very smart (apparently…) but Amoros is and his squad is peaking (too, if the Thorns are on a post-miracle high) so it’s going to take more than the players. Ken’s gonna have to be, well, more than his usual self.
Can he? He’s got the horses now, so there’s no excuse.
Frankly, if he crafts a good game, the squad plays it well, but Gotham still wins? I won’t be heartbroken. They’re damn good and earned the home quarters. I’d like to see this group go out with their heads high, to build a strong base for 2025.
And if we win?
Pure cream; we get a shot at the semi, something I’d have laughed at in September.
And our blogger came close on score for KC-NC, as well; called it 2-nil KC. The Damned did pretty well shutting Chawinga down other than the one, but their inability in front of goal punished them, so…
It doesn’t show in the record, so this is probably just a figment of my ever hopeful imagination, but tactics, starting lineups, and subs have seemed less crazy/random since Hart came in as an assistant. Has he been a factor at all?
As the last graph in this post (and the passing diagram against ACFC) show, not significantly. The formation Ken ran against ACFC was just as banjaxed as usual, the hour subs are still a thing, Hubly starts over Obaze (and Sinc over everyone, tho I’ve lost confidence that Spaanstra or Linnehan are locks to start, either…). Tactically we still play KenSmithHeroBall, mostly. The trajectory has been steadily down for scoring and up for concessions.
I’m kind of baffled by what all Ken’s assistants do other than Vytas, who’s fairly clearly in charge of the defense, and Franken for the keepers. Both Hart and Lowdon seem sort of generic “head coach” type managers. Not sure how they mesh with Ken, but I haven’t seen anything that suggests they’re involved in ways that change his coaching. As our vaudevillian says:
“It feels to me as if the Thorns were too guided by results and found the pros and cons of such an approach. They didn’t wait around long for things to turn around under Norris, there were very few signs that they would. But when Gale had a run of success they reacted by making his appointment permanent, and now that things have gotten even worse than they were under Norris, they’re out of moves. Whenever their offseason comes, it will be a very important and intriguing one for the Thorns.”