Thorns FC: It’s A Trap!

For the first hour I was convinced Orlando’s Seb Hines was okay with last Friday’s match being a throwaway game. Clinched the Shield and homefield advantage all the way to the Final, big guns need rest, so win, lose, draw, whatev’.

But.

After the Thorns went up two Hines stared rolling out the artillery. Adriana and Barbara Banda came on in the 65th minute. Marta in the 76th minute.

Too late.

Frankly, if I was an Orlando player I’d be kinda chapped. Yeah, yeah, rest, short turnaround, playoffs, Portland sucks so rotate, nick the easy points…get it.

But they were that close to writing history.

Nope, I think the folks who called this one a trap game for Orlando were right;

Hines & Co. got cocky and paid for it, while Portland played decently enough and profited from it.

Update 10/16: I gotta include this because it’s so on point; from our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle:

Do I think this is a turning point in the season?

No. I saw enough of the same problems we’ve seen all year; the defensive discipline was better, but there were still problems with…

…letting opponents, even an opponent missing it’s best players…

…break lines…

…and get open deep.

Only for this one instead of making the final error Portland’s backline – and especially the centerback pairing of Obaze and Sauerbrunn – stood strong, and instead of finding multiple options Orlando’s forwards (and, yeah, lookin’ reeeal hard at you, Ally Watt..!)…

…blasted right at Shelby Hogan or over or wide.

So good, not great. Good enough to trap Hines without his tigers.

I also saw a lot of the same Thorns issues upfront; a squad without Sophia Smith struggling to find constructive passing, lots of people either not picking out runs or, more often, finding ways to take a creative opening pass…

…and neuter it by not make runs into space…

…letting Orlando’s backline recover and then getting tackled or forced into taking futile shots from distance.

With the bulk of its starting defense in place were the Pride worried about some pacey Portland runs off their shoulders?

Umm, no.

Don’t get me wrong; like I said, the Thorns were decent. Pretty solid in back, and up front creating some nice half-chances.

But the finishing was still kind of meh; Olivia Moultrie continued her futility, wasting four good opportunities (five shots, none on goal, total xG 0.4), Payton Linnehan had three shots and put two on frame, but her total xG? 0.1. As a team sixteen shots, six on goal, xG 1.3.

Luckily Orlando was worse; ten shots, four on goal, xG 0.5.

For once our opponents helped us with defensive derps. On a very Moultriesque corner kick in the 12th minute 1) nobody in purple bothered to pester Reyna Reyes…

…then 2) all four lionesses on the six-yard box stepped forward AFTER Reyes had nodded the service over their heads.

Morgan Weaver, however, stayed put and coolly poked the ball past Moorhouse…

…for the matchwinner.

This one was fun for a change. It’s always fun to win, it’s often fun to spoil someone else’s party (sorry, Pride, but there it is…), it was definitely fun to see the people in Doritos orange happy and excited.

But the road to the playoffs is hard and long.

I’d love to see more of this happiness. But I’m going to just keep my fires banked and see how things go these final two games before bursting into flame.

Call me Eeyore, and I’m okay with that.

Short Passes

Per OPTA Portland was out-passed…again; connecting on 78% of 365 passes while Orlando hit 84% of 495 passes.

Orlando had turnover issues, though, and Portland mostly did enough to keep the passes that connected wide or in front of the defensive lines. That’s where not having Banda or Adriana or Marta coming at them until they could comfortably sit in helped the Thorns like magical anti-Orlando elixir.

Our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle has been late this week, so no passing charts, sorry. I’ll update if and when he posts.

Update 10/16: Here they are. First, Portland:

I can’t argue with a bit of that.

In particular as I said above; I reeeeeally don’t see this as “redemption” or turning the season around. I think it was a lucky collision of Orlando caught with its collective shorts down and Portland playing over their heads, sorta.

Now, Orlando:

If I’m Marta I wouldn’t be. I’d be piiiiissssed.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going

Opponent (Result) – 2024	Turnovers
Kansas City (L)	43
Gotham (L)	30
Louisville (D)	54
Carolina (L)	34
Houston (W)	No data
Chicago (W)	No data
Bay FC (W)	41
Washington (W)	26
Seattle (W)	20
Houston (W)	21
Orlando (L)	28
North Carolina (W)	27
Seattle (D)	26
Kansas City (L)	35
Utah (D)	35
San Diego (W)	30
Gotham (L)	43
Bay FC (L)	35
Washington (L)	35
Chicago (L)	35
Angel City (D)	25
San Diego (L)	34
Utah (L)
Orlando (W)	29

Like the rest of this one; not terrific but also not awful for a change. Of the turnovers 13 came in the first half, 16 in the second.

The worrisome bit is that of those second half turnovers, 11 came after the hour when Hines started taking the match seriously and the Thorns needed possession to see out the win and weren’t doing great keeping it.

But, hey, good enough is good enough.

The Biggest Loser was Hogan with four, including a real howler in the 7th minute. A bunch of people coughed up three-ish, including Sauerbrunn (three-and-a-half), and Reyes and D’Aquila both with three, D’Aquila in only a half-hour which has to be some kind of record.

Four others turned over two-and-a-half times; Linnehan, Coffey, Fleming, and Obaze. Nobody else with more than two.

Corner Kicks

Four, three in the first half, one in the second, all long.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
12′	Moultrie	Long	To Reyes who headed over everyone to Weaver, goal 1-nil
37′	Moultrie	Long	Way long; Sinclair gained possession but was stripped
43′	Moultrie	Long	Right to Moorhouse
72′	Moultrie	Long	Deep and wide, cleared out to Coffey who blasted wide left

A goal out of four corners is good production, tho as we saw that needed a fair bit of Orlando help. But like the rest of this thing, given the shit rain that’s been falling lately I’ll take any sunshine I can find.

A Digression on Corner Kicks

Over at Stumptown we got talking about “Coffey vs Moultrie” as corner kick takers, and I thought I’d paw through my corner kick tallies and discuss the Thorns corner data so far this season. So, here goes:

I’ve tracked corners across 24 games (missed Houston and Chicago while working in Alaska, and Utah on vacation, but for this study I reviewed the match reports for those three…)
Norris relied on Coffey as primary taker, but he also tried Moultrie, Fleming, and Muller against Louisville on MD 3, then back to Coffey alone on MD 4.
Ken started using Coffey exclusively from MD 5 to MD 11.
Then he started experimenting:
MD 12 (NCC) Coffey and Moultrie
MD 13 (SEA) Muller
MD 14 (KCC) Muller
MD 15 (UTA) Coffey, Fleming, and Wade-Katoa
MD 16 (SDW) Coffey and Fleming
MD 17 (GOT) Moultrie
MD 18 (BFC) Moultrie and Muller
MD 19 (WAS) Moultrie and Coffey
MD 20 (CRS) Moultrie and Coffey
After Chicago Ken settled on Moultrie almost exclusively:
MD 21 (ACFC) Moultrie
MD 22 (SDW) Moultrie
MD 23 (UTA) Moultrie and Coffey (after Moultrie was subbed off)
MD 24 (ORL) Moultrie

Coffey has taken a total of 46 corners over this period,
Moultrie has taken 28,
Muller has taken 8,
Fleming has taken 6,
Wade-Katoa has taken 2.

The Thorns have scored two goals directly off corners in these games: the Weaver goal last Friday, and a Beckie header in KC on Matchday 1.

If you want you can also include a weird MD 3 Weaver goal against Racing that came from Fleming’s service, was banged off a bunch of people, then Smith latched onto it and fed Weaver. Let’s.

(FWIW, that tally; 2 direct goals off 90 corner kicks (~2.2%) is well within historical professional soccer norms, if you recall our earlier discussions about this. Adding the Fleming recycle bumps it up to 3.3%, so still within the range of error.)

Coffey’s service also generated 10 good chances that were either saved, blocked, or fluffed by the Thorn shooter.

Moultrie’s service also generated 2 good opportunities.

Conclusions:
Coffey’s corner kicks generated 1 goal and 10 other chances (11/46, or 23.9% of Coffey’s corners taken).
Moultrie’s generated 1 goal and 2 other chances (3/28, or 10.7% of Moultrie’s corners).
Fleming’s generated 1 goal (1/8, or 12.5%), but that’s a fluke, frankly.

Hmmm.

Thoughts?

Throw-Ins

Both sides took more throw-ins during the first half; Portland 16, Orlando 16. In the second Orlando out-threw Portland a bit, 11 to 7.

Of Portland’s throw-ins I had 15 (65.3%) connecting successfully and six (26%) going to Orlando. Two (8.7%) were “neutral”, going neither to Portland nor Orlando (usually meaning either out for another throw close to the original spot, or pinging around to be decided by actions onfield).

Orlando completed 19 throws (70.3%) and lost seven (25.9%). One “neutral” (3.7%).

Here’s how that’s going:

Opponent	Advantage gained	Advantage lost	Opponent gain	Opponent loss
Kansas City	62.5%	8.3%	59.2%	40.1%
Gotham	62.8%	22.8%	57.1%	38%
Racing	84.3%	15.7%	43.7%	50%
Carolina	70.9%	29.2%	73%	27%
Houston
Chicago
Bay FC	64.2%	28.5%	71.4%	28.5%
Washington	41.6%	58.3%	62.5%	34.3%
Seattle	71.4%	14.2%	80%	20%
Houston	67.8%	25%	69.6%	30.3%
Orlando	76%	24%	73%	30.7%
Carolina	89.4%	5.2%	57.6%	26.9%
Seattle	85.7%	9.5%	68.7%	28.7%
Kansas City	70.7%	29.3%	72.7%	27.3%
Utah	65.5%	30%	50%	50%
San Diego
Gotham	47.6%	28.6%	50%	35%
BFC	63.6%	27.3%	62%	20%
Washington	60%	40%	72.2%	27.8%
Chicago	75%	15.6%	36.6%	50%
Angel City	68%	27.3%	81.8%	7.4%
San Diego	61.9%	28.5%	78.9%	21.1%
Utah
Orlando	65.3%	26%	70.3%	25.9%
Average	67.7%	24.7%	63.4%	30.5%

As the season winds down I’m starting to think we’re seeing an endpoint to this study.

If you recall the original thesis was “The Thorns seem to be bad at throw-ins. Why?” But the aggregate data looks very inconclusive, and certainly doesn’t confirm the hypothesis. Portland’s throw-in success/fail ratio looks very similar to their opponents’.

I think we’ll take a hard look and break this down after the season ends. But right now? I think my original assumption was wrong.

Player Ratings and Comments

Sinclair (79′ – +4/-1 : +5/-1 : +9/-1) Credit where it’s due; Sinc had a damn fine match. Alongside her usual service – seven of her pluses are for passes – she added the most Sinc-y goal I can think of, five-holing her defender to screen Moorhouse and putting it just out of reach; I imagine her trotting past Olivia Moultrie commenting “Now that’s how you score from eighteen yards out, young padawan…”

It’s also obvious how much this squad loves the stuffing out of her. She has to be a big part of why this team is still in there fighting after a pretty ugly season.

She’s still old, and slow. But as we keep finding, given the right surroundings Sinc has so much good soccer so deep in her she’s still got something to give.

The problem being that opposing coaches know that, and won’t let those surroundings happen unless they get careless and look past her and her squad, eh, Seb?

Muller (11′ – +0/-2) Saw out the win, so fine…but Marie Muller came on in a fighting mood and quickly gave Orlando some setpieces she didn’t have to. Not sure if Muller was responding to Ken telling her to get nasty or it was just her, or just the game state. Either way, toughness is a must for defending. Dumb fouls? Are not.

Weaver (62′ – +8/-1 : 4/-0 : +12/-1) This…

…is a trifle worrisome.

I couldn’t figure out why the Happy Warrior came off so early. I didn’t think she was still on such limited minutes, and she isn’t. Instead she took a knock while I was bagging a final brew, and with knees, knocks are suboptimal.

Because without Smith we need Weaver. She still can’t be the game changer she is with Sinclair instead of Smith beside her; Sinc lacks the pace. But she’s still a huge piece of what attack we still have. So be healthy, knee!

D’Aquila (28′ – +3/-4) I really hate the position D’Aquila (and through her, Ken) puts me in.

Because she works hard. She does all she can and looks like she leaves it all on the pitch. I want to stan hard for a player who’s like that.

But “all she can” isn’t much. Her touch is still brutal, and she’s like the anti-Sinc; she makes nothing out of something, missing sitters and shanking all over hell. She utterly lacks every attribute that makes a quality striker.

She’s also not good behind the ball, turning over and missing tackles.

I’m not sure why she’s Ken’s “first off the bench” choice. But she is, and that’s troubling.

Linnehan (79′ – +7/-2 : +5/-4 : +12/-6) Like all the other Thorns forwards not named Smith, Payton Linnehan is a frustrating jumble of strengths and weaknesses. Unlike the Thorns forward we just discussed, Linnehan does have some quality, so it’s frustrating when she starts picking up bad habits like spraying shots all over except where they can do some good.

Sheva (11′ – no rating) I guess I should give Marisa Sheva props for seeing out the match. Not sure what she did other than be a body, though.

Moultrie (90′ – +5/-3 : +6/-2 : +11/-5) The good: OM seems to have shaken off the weird lassitude she picked up in midseason. The bad: she still seems to be on a different page from many of her teammates. The ugly: Lord, the shooting.

I’m fine with Moultrie having a crack from distance. That helps keep the keeper honest and the defenders spread out. But if you’re gonna shoot from downtown, Livvy, FFS, put the damn thing on frame! And look for teammates before uncorking an airball!

I’ve accepted that you’re effectively a squad player. But it’s time to refine your skills to become an excellent squad player.

Spaanstra (~7′ – no rating) There seems to be a fair number of people who are huge Spaanstra fans. And I get the whole “Oh FFS why are we seeing D’Aquila again here instead of Spaanstra..?” thing. But I honestly have no idea whether Spaanstra is a big upgrade or not; there was a time I had big hopes for D’Aquila, too.

Frankly I’d like to see Spaanstra get some serious minutes to find out.

Fleming (+4/-2 : +3/-0 : +7/-1) Worked hard, especially tracking back, and helped win the midfield battle. I’m not sure, but it feels like Fleming is finally finding herself in this midfield to the extent that KenBall lets her. I’d like to see more big games from her, but this is better.

Coffey (+6/-2 : +5/-0 : +11/-2) Finally looked like the Real Coffey, dangerous both directions and locking down midfield.

Payne (+6/-1 : +1/-0 : +7/-1) I’m not usually a huge fan of her defending, but Nicola Payne was savagely effective shutting down Duljan in the first half. Started to get a bit overrun when Banda came on but by then it was enough. Solid piece of a solid backline.

Obaze (+2/-1 : +3/-1 : +5/-2) At this point I’m not sure why you’d start Hubly over Obaze. Obaze is usually consistent and composed, Hubs is typically all over the shop. For a defense whose weakness is The Big Error that seems like a very simple choice.

Sauerbrunn (+1/-0 : +2/-0 : +3/-0) Don’t let the numbers fool you. ‘Brunn led her unit in a team defense that kept the Pride contained almost all match. Her numbers are low – all the defenders’ are – because they were more disciplined than we’ve seen them lately. Nobody had to make crazy hero tackles or blocks because there was usually a teammate bodied up on a purple shirt to prevent that penetrating pass or dribble through the press. Damn well played.

I’d like to see a lot more of this. I’m not sure we can. But that we did, even against a diminished Orlando, is promising.

Reyes (+4/-3 : +6/-0 : +10/-3) Added some good service to her defending, hence the big pluses.

Hogan (+0/-0 : +0/-0 : +0/-0) Largely untroubled.

Here’s the thing. I get the Arnold deal. I don’t “get” it as in “that was a smart move”, but;
1) Shelby Hogan had a very shaky April,
2) That perception is hard to unsee, so when Arnold came available
3) The FO figured they’d swap her in. Unfortunately
4) Hogan had been settling down and Arnold is not really better technically except playing out of the back, and
5) The Thorns took the opportunity to utterly shit the bed after Arnold came in, so
6) Now we’re hearing about Hogan’s clean sheets, Arnold’s failings, and the whole deal is being slammed.

The bottom line is; I don’t see it.

Arnold is better technically – +0.36 based on post-shot xG minus goals allowed per 90 minutes – compared to Hogan’s -0.06. Arnold is still better distributing, tho Ken’s “tactics” don’t allow the Thorns to really take advantage of that. The two are statistically close enough that the PSxG-GA/90 different may well be within the range of error.

The real question is how confident does her squad feel in front of one or the other?

A team lacking confidence in the hands between the sticks will often play tight and scared, knowing any mistake might ship a crap goal. A confident keeper often means a confident squad that can take risks and play with some swagger.

Who has the squad’s confidence?

I don’t know.

Coach Ken: Just because Hines fell into a trap doesn’t mean Gale trapped him.

We’ve seen enough KenBall to know who the gaffer is, and so while I loved this as fun and happiness I hope this isn’t an “ooh he won six in a row!” redux that somehow boosts Ken in the Bhathals’ opinion.

The guy isn’t right for this gig, and I hope that 1) the RAJ people really DO a “world-wide search” and find a good GM who hires 2) a good head coach who arrives here with a vision and a roster build that works.

Sometimes, though, it’s okay to just forget tomorrow and enjoy today.

This was one. Thanks, Weaver. Thanks, Sinc. Thanks, defense. Thanks, Thorns.

That was fun.

The cookies are on me next time.