Thorns FC: Bad to worse

So it took less than a week for the Thorns’ slack, aimless loss at Gotham to look like a blinder in retrospect, seeing as how last Friday the visiting Bay FC took the Thorns out behind the MAC Club, beat them soundly, and ran off a 1-3 winner.

An hour before the match I wrote this on the prematch thread at Stumptown:

And, sure enough, in the seventh minute Dorian Bailey lobbed a fairly tame cross in to the Portland far post:

Two things happened.

First, Isabella Obaze was loafing in the six-yard box ballwatching while Abby Dahlkemper surged forward unmarked to meet the cross.

Second, Mackenzie Arnold dropped towards her back post then, inexplicably, rather than going up and challenging for the cross…

…Arnold turned back towards her post:

Meaning that when Dahlkemper’s head thumped the ball past the post Arnold was already beaten, nil-one and the Thorns were chasing for the next 93-plus minutes.

This was not Arnold’s ball to save; her defenders hosed her here as they did all night. We’ll go deeper in the comments, no one in Doritos orange looked very composed, disciplined, or dangerous against what should have been a very beatable opponent at home.

But she and her defense sure looked bad.

How bad? Here they are only eleven minutes later. Jessie Fleming was marking space and staring at Rachel Kundananji as Kundanaji chipped her to a free-running Dorian Bailey

Bailey turned and dropped back to Kundananji, but the Thorns “defense” was already all to pieces – look at Tess Boade lurking unmarked near the top of the arch:

And where were all those Thorns looking? Well…

So with all Portland ballwatching Kundananji could cross to the unmarked teammate on the weak side, but Kundananji is aggro as hell and fast as a thought, so she just smoked Nicola Payne and Fleming and drove right past them into the near side of the box:

Give Obaze credit for being goal-side of Asisat Oshoala, but, again…where were she and Reyna Reyes staring?

Yep. Nobody’s head is on a swivel, so when Kundananji put in a perfect cross…

…nobody was there to close down Rachel Hill before she could double the BFC lead…

…with the easy tap-in.

Nil-two and the matchwinner.

The Thorns freakishly pulled one back in the 32nd minute when Kate Rowland’s howler rolled right to Sophia Smith, who doesn’t miss those sorts of gifts.

But take away the Rowland assist?

The Thorns generated a whopping 0.32 xG for the remaining 100 or so minutes.

Update 9/4: I wanted to add this just because our blogger’s comment is so perfectly spot-on:

I gotta give credit to Albertin Montoya and the BFC squad. They played a hell of a match, denied Portland good looks, and were the better side on the night.

But, as Carlisle Sensei says above – Coach Ken and GM LeBlanc AND his squad didn’t help themselves. Once again players were being played out of position – Olivia Moultrie, in particular, looked uncomfortable in wide midfield – and the player roles, particularly in midfield, were either not defined or laid out so poorly that the club looked muddled and confused trying to figure out what they were supposed to be doing. KK didn’t add helpful bodies to the backline.

Several observers noted how often the attack was disconnected; players would make runs but no passes arrived to meet them, or passes would be hit without a runner to receive them.

That’s a training failure.

The training ground is where you learn that stuff, practicing those sequences over and over until the players know who’s going to move and when, and who will lead them with a pass, or hit them with a cross.

Which, in turn, raises a rather shocking question of the head coach; what the fuck ARE you doing in practice?

Right now this squad looks lost, and for a team with the top of the roster as loaded as this one to look this poor?

There should be an accounting.

Gotham away was regrettable; this one was utterly reprehensible, and I’d like to think the club is having a come-to-Jesus discussion this week about the way forward.

Short Passes

OPTA has both sides as fairly tidy; Portland completed 79% of 441 passes, and though the Thorns out-passed Bay (78% of 368 passes) by 20% as always a LOT of those completed Portland passes were pointless little lateral dinks and drops. As we’ll see, the Thorns turned the ball over too often to be complacent about the passing.

It’s late Tuesday, and our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle still hasn’t posted his invaluable passing diagrams. If and when he does I’ll blatantly steal from him and update this piece.

Update 9/4: Here you go; first, Portland:

Different day, same fucking problem – the same gridlock in the center circle that didn’t work at Gotham. That whole “undefined roles and poor assignments” thing? That’s what that looks like.

And Beckie..? As I keep hammering in the comments; Fleming CAN do that, she could be a dynamic #8, effective on both sides of the ball. She’s not. Why?

Here’s BFC:

Because in the words of Sun Tzu; if you don’t know yourself and you don’t know your enemy you will lose every battle.

Ken doesn’t understand his own squad. And he – as the diagram above shows – can’t see the openings his opponents give his squad.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going

Opponent (Result) – 2024	Turnovers
Kansas City (L)	43
Gotham (L)	30
Louisville (D)	54
Carolina (L)	34
Houston (W)	No data
Chicago (W)	No data
Bay FC (W)	41
Washington (W)	26
Seattle (W)	20
Houston (W)	21
Orlando (L)	28
North Carolina (W)	27
Seattle (D)	26
Kansas City (L)	35
Utah (D)	35
San Diego (W)	30
Gotham (L)	43
Bay FC (L)	35

It’s tribute to how much better BFC played last weekend than they did back in May that the Thorns cut down their giveaways by 15% from their away win and still got thumped. And when the turnover numbers creep up over thirty? That’s usually a bad sign.

The biggest loser was Payne with seven. Kelli Hubly gave away five-and-a-half, and Reyes coughed up four-and-a-half. Sam Coffey hacked up four, Moultrie and Fleming three each, and six others chipped in one or two.

But the turnovers were actually worse than the numbers alone; several were truly horrific, including a Moultrie pass that opened the seventh minute scoring sequence and Hubly’s appalling crossfield pass that led almost directly to the third concession. Moultrie yacked up another hairball in first half injury that required a desperation Hubly kick-save of a point-blank Oshoala blast.

Yike.

Corner Kicks

Seven, but all in the second half and four of the seven in injury time. One short, another “line drive” (medium length and low), the others long into the box.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
67′	Moultrie	Long	Cleared away, and the recycling went nowhere.
87′	Moultrie	Long	On to Sauerbrunn’s head; her tame header was cleared and the recycling led to a foul on Moultrie. The ensuing free kick was poor
90′	Moultrie	Line Drive	To Marie Muller, who headed to Payton Linnehan. Linnehan’s cross was cleared behind for a second corner
91′	Moultrie	Long	Right to Rowland for the easy take
93′	Moultrie	Long	Rowland came out strong to claim
90+7′	Moultrie?	Short?	The cameras cut away before the kick, but when they returned it looked like it had gone in short; the shot that it produced went well over
90+9′	Muller	Long	Exceptionally poor; no Thorns were in the box to attack the service and BFC’s defenders barely bothered to clear it.

Nothing, and especially wasteful in injury time when the corners were the only real chances Portland was getting. The club looked panicked and out of ideas by that time and unsurprisingly got no joy from these. But still, you can’t just give up.

Throw-Ins

Another match, another troubled stream that featured multiple cutaways from throw-ins to show coaches coaching, random business, and player close-ups .

Both sides did a lot of attacking up the touchlines, so they also had to knock into touch a lot; BFC took 25 throw-ins by my count, Portland 22.

Of Portland’s throw-ins I had 14 (63.6%) connecting successfully. Six (27.3%) were lost. One was “neutral” – neither being turned over nor advancing Portland possession – and one was cut away from so much I couldn’t tell what happened.

BFC completed 16 throws (64%) and lost five (20%). Four were “neutral” and none were unobserved.

Here’s how that’s going:

Opponent	Advantage gained	Advantage lost	Opponent gain	Opponent loss
Kansas City	62.5%	8.3%	59.2%	40.1%
Gotham	62.8%	22.8%	57.1%	38%
Racing	84.3%	15.7%	43.7%	50%
Carolina	70.9%	29.2%	73%	27%
Houston
Chicago
Bay FC	64.2%	28.5%	71.4%	28.5%
Washington	41.6%	58.3%	62.5%	34.3%
Seattle	71.4%	14.2%	80%	20%
Houston	67.8%	25%	69.6%	30.3%
Orlando	76%	24%	73%	30.7%
Carolina	89.4%	5.2%	57.6%	26.9%
Seattle	85.7%	9.5%	68.7%	28.7%
Kansas City	70.7%	29.3%	72.7%	27.3%
Utah	65.5%	30%	50%	50%
San Diego
Gotham	47.6%	28.6%	50%	35%
BFC	63.6%	27.3%	62%	20%
Average	68.3%	23.7%	63.4%	31.8%

Player Ratings and Comments

Smith (57′ – +6/-1 : +1/-1 : +7/-2) I was disappointed in Smith at Gotham for not being willing to play when her team obviously needed her badly, but this outing made clear that not all is well with her physically – she iced both her ankles after coming out – and possibly in her headspace as well.

Other than the gift goal Smith had an excellent 16th minute run that required Emily Menges to revisit 2017 and cut the ball off Smith’s foot (Menges has had a poor season to date but was a beast last Friday).

Smith had another in the 24th minute and yet another in the 42nd minute that looked like an equalizer, but…

…and…

…so, yeah, that’s offside. Too bad; it was a pretty buildup.

Then she faded out of the match after the break, so her sub-off wasn’t the white flag it seemed at the time.

Turner (37′ – +2/-1) Here’s the thing about this, though.

Ken knew his star striker would be on limited minutes. Presumably his plan all along was to swap her our for Turner when the clock struck midnight. So, also presumably, the squad should have been doing that “practicing” we discussed above with Turner all week.

Instead Turner seemed to have not clue what her teammates would do. She missed a pretty Coffey through-ball mere minutes after coming in, then another from Moultrie in the 61st minute, and yet another from Sugita near the death.

So, again…WTF ARE you doing in training, Ken..?

Spaanstra (76′ – +4/-1 : +4/-0 : +8/-1) Showed some promising ideas and pace, with the same team problems as everyone else – just not better as the sum of the parts.

Linnehan (14′ – +3/-0) See the Spaanstra comment.

Moultrie (+4/-3 : +5/-1 : +9/-4) I read a lot of griping about Moultrie on the match thread. And I agree; she looked uncomfortable out wide and did not have a good game.

Neither did any other Thorn not Japanese or Nigerian, though, so it seems kind of louche’ to pick on poor Livvy. This squad has problems that look more like training and tactical problems; a player out of position, confused by poor instructions, and frustrated by poor tactics, can easily look like someone who’s jakin’ it. For the record? I don’t think Moultrie took the night off.

I think she had a poor outing in the middle of a team struggling. That, to me, calls for sympathy more than condemnation.

Sugita (+7/-1 : +8/-1 : +15/-2) My pick for Woman of the Match.
“The power of the night, the press of the storm,
The post of the foe;
Where she stands, the Arch Fear in a visible form,
Yet the strong woman must go:”
(apologies to Robert Browning)

Coffey (76′ – +4/-1 : +1/-1 : +5/-2) When your opponent is attacking so as to create over 2xG and Sam Coffey’s PMR is in single digits and her net PMR is only +3?

You’re doing something very, very, very fucking wrong.

Sauerbrunn (14′ – no rating) That horse was down the road and well away into the next time zone by that point. What was the idea behind this move? “Stop the bleeding?” The patient had already bled out.

Fleming (85′ – +6/-5 : +1/-3 : +7/-6) The lingering image is Fleming, smoked like a trout by Oshoala late in the game, just grabbing the BFC forward’s shirt to earn a dumbass yellow.

Same as always; something isn’t working for this player on this squad. I don’t know what or why, but it’s pointless to keep banging her and her teammates’ heads into this wall. Either solve her issues(s) or let her go.

Klingenberg (5′ – no rating) My guess is that Fleming was visibly steaming and Ken yanked her to avoid the second yellow or worse.

Payne (+5/-3 : +9/-2 : +14/-3) Almost got a golazo! Her 48th minute looping service spoofed Rowland, went over the keeper’s head and came off her far post. Unfortunately it didn’t come off the inside of the far post, so instead of going in it bounced out to Menges who thankfully belted it away. Too bad; that would have been fun for her to remember on an otherwise unmemorable night.

The thing you get with Payne is pace and aggression. Defending? Welllll…let’s just say that Kundananji made kind of a meal of her. No shame! – Kundananji has eaten a lot of other fullbacks.

But kind of a piece of the Portland backline having yet another poor game as a unit.

Hubly (+4/-3 : +5/-3 : +9/-6) Her dreaded and anticipated Hubly Derp ^(TM) came in the 70th minute; the turnover discussed above. On the “one awshit cancels out one thousand attaboys” rule basis, well…

Obaze (76′ – +0/-2 : +0/-0 : +0/-2) As noted, primarily at fault on the Dahlkemper goal. Not the problem, but like her fellow defenders, part of the problem.

I read a lot of people talking about Sauerbrunn as a potential coaching hire, but looking at this backline, what is she teaching them now? I mean…she’s the Old Head, the veteran, the international. With ‘Brunn to lead, why doesn’t this group look better as a unit?

Muller (14′ – +2/-0) Not much help at that point. Like the Sauerbrunn sub, sort of an admission that 1) the starting XI was kind of a mess, 2) the match was going out of reach, and 3) the depth doesn’t offer much help for that, but Ken had to “try something”. This was a kind of something, so, there.

Reyes (+1/-4 : +3/-0 : +4/-4) In the first half Montoya loaded up his attacking right; throwing Rachel Hill, and Boade, and often Dydasco, too, at Reyes, who isn’t very pacey to begin with and so ran her over.

Ken did nothing to adjust to that until BFC was up for good. When he did – in the second half – you can see the effect on Reyes’ PMR.

Not a great match, but as much or more on the gaffer as on Reyes.

Arnold (+2/-1 : +3/-2 : +5/-3) My notes on Arnold included the following:
1) her move tracking the cross in to Dahlkemper was, as discussed above, not terrific. Not likely worse than many other keepers, but I think she failed to see and anticipate the danger in a way a truly exceptional keeper would have.
2) She was not at fault on the second concession, but
3) I think her dive on the third was a bit soft and slow. Again; not terrible, not terrific.
4) So overall? Meh. Pretty average on pure keeping skills.
5) But she’s good with the ball at her feet. Especially long. Here’s her passing chart versus BFC:

Compare it to Shelby Hogan at Gotham the week before:

Hogan is terrible on her left foot, while Arnold is good with both feet, and per FBref Arnold is much stronger deep; she hits damn near 55% of her long passes on average compared to 39% for Hogan.

Also per FBref the two are damn near even against attackers; Arnold’s average post-shot xG-against minus goals-against per 90 minutes (which is to say, how many goals she conceded compared to how many her xG-against predicted she should have given up) is -0.18, meaning she did a bit worse that her xGa predicted.

Hogan’s is -0.14.

So between the sticks Arnold is kind of a wash for Hogan. Playing out? Much better, especially booting long.

Since they’re roughly comparable on conceding but Arnold is better distributing? Fine. Welcome to the starting XI, Macca.

Just don’t expect too many more clean sheets, fans.

Coach Gale: I think we’ve pretty much slapped you around sufficiently. I don’t really have much more to add. You knew what you had to do.

Now with their win over Kansas City The Damned Courage have jumped our lot and dropped Portland to sixth, clinging to a “no home playoff” spot, and within four points of Chicago, six points of both BFC and ACFC who are also fighting the red line.

Your team has gone 1-3-2 over the past six, taking five points of eighteen on offer.

That’s not a playoff quality team.

You know what you need to do now.

Well?