Well, after all that the US ground out a tight 1-nil win from Brazil to get back to gold.
Well done.
As the saying goes; the reward for good work is…more work.
That’s a bit confusing, because that’s the next home game. The first game of the resumed regular season is a week earlier at Gotham away.
But the big test doesn’t come until early October, when we host Orlando. Other than that? The stretch run looks pretty soft-ish to me.
Remember we’re currently fifth, 27 points. Starting in a little over a week we face:
8/24 – Gotham (4th/31pts) away
8/31 – Bay FC (8th/18pts) here
9/7 – Washington (3rd/34 pts) away
9/13 – Chicago (7th/23 pts) here
9/23 – ACFC (11th/15pts) away
9/28 – San Diego (10th/15pts) away
10/5 – Utah (14th/9pts) here
10/11 – Orlando (1st/38pts) here
10/19 – Louisville (9th/16pts) away
11/1 – ACFC here
And that’s the regular season.
So one “yike, scary!” (Orlando), and two nailbiters (Gotham, Washington).
But two bites at the juicy ACFC points-dispensing apple plus sad-act Utah – so should be nine points in the bag – and we also get four really-should-win-if-we’re-serious-about-the-playoffs games; at San Diego and Louisville, and against Chicago and BFC.
I’m already conceding the three points to Orlando, and I’m not really optimistic about either Gotham or Washington away.
But the other four? THEN we’ll see if the whole “Coach Ken’s permanent status has unleashed his inner tactical genius” trope is a real thing.
Meanwhile, we’re officially halfway through the August transfer window and…
…we released a keeper!
What’s that, one down, five to go?
My reactions were (in order):
“Meh.”
“Hunh?” (wondering why Alvarado and not, say, Kozal…)
“K.” (figuring it was because Alvarado is more expensive)
“Meh.”
FWIW, I’m not sure (and I’d argue that at this point it’s impossible to be sure) which of these keepers outside the rooks are “an upgrade” on Hogan. I’m guessing Arnold is the current #1…but honestly? Her record is mixed, and until we see how she does against NWSL opponents behind our backline we won’t know if we’re getting peaches or lunch meat.
She won’t faceplant – she’s at least a replacement-grade international – but if the backline doesn’t improve she could get shelled the way she was against Germany and Zambia in France. Arnold is decent, but I don’t see her as a Sheridan-in-her-prime game changer. She’s going to need help, and so far the FO hasn’t brought in any.
Mind you, it may be the plan; hope for Weaver’s and Moultrie’s returns to fitness, hope for big leaps in form from Beckie and Fleming, hope from improved communication and coordination from a first-choice backline of Muller-Obaze-Sauerbrunn-Payne/Reyes.
Personally? I think we’re still a piece or two shy. I don’t think we’ve really replaced Raquel Rodriguez. We need a steady 6/8 to allow Hina Sugita to push up in attack. And I’m not convinced with Beckie at RW.
But…maybe the FO’s plan is there and we’ll just have to see how it works.
At least we’re set in goal!
Thoughts?
Update 8/16pm: Okay, so here’s the “wins the WTF-more-weird-shit-can-we-connect-with-Portland-soccer” prize:
“Multnomah County officials warned Thursday of a new enterprise they say is operating outside of city, county and state regulations: hot dog carts and stands outside of Providence Park and Moda Center.
Emails between city and county officials earlier this week, obtained through a public records request, show the county believes the hot dog stands harbor something more sinister than just unregulated frankfurters: human trafficking.“
Ooookay. Did not have THAT on my bingo card.
FWIW, I notice that these perros calientes carts don’t show up for Thorns games, just Timbers. Why, I dunno. I was at the Leagues Cup match with Leon and they were everywhere and I was hungry and they looked pretty good…but they were also ten bucks and that’s too damn steep even for a loaded dog. So I passed.
But human trafficking? Go figure…
Update 8/19: The club has signed sophomore forward Alexa Spaanstra from Kansas City.
Spaanstra was one of KC’s first round signings in 2023 (tenth overall) and played in fifteen KC matches that season, including five starts, scoring twice. This year, with the acquisition of Chawinga Spaanstra was relegated to depth; she’s played only eight times, and hasn’t started since mid-May.
It looks like she has played LW for the Current this season, and I’m not sure if her presence should worry me about Weaver’s rehab. My guess is no; she’s superfluous to KCC and a cheap pickup here, so probably just depth.
Update 8/22: Yesterday the Thorns traded Janine Beckie to Racing Louisville for 2024 draftee/rookie forward Reilyn Turner.
I’m fine with this. Turner has had a solid rookie season with Racing; four goals, two assists in about 700 minutes over 16 matches (looks like about six starts, alternating between CF and LW).
Beckie, as we’ve discussed, never really found her role here, between her injury and the coaching turmoil and her own form issues. This was her option year and rumor had it she was eyeing the exits, so good on Le Blanc for getting something for her.
As always, the real question is “how will she do with the squad”? There are a miniscule number of Smiths or Chawingas or Girmas, players who singlehandedly change the shape and performance of their teams.
And here’s where we come back to Coach Ken.
It’s his JOB to set up the “team identity”, to lay out how they play, and the roles for each player and unit. So far? We’ve had 1) Norris 2.0 – Smith hero-ball – and 2) a three-match “let’s try a 3-4-3 no, wait, a 3-5-2”.
Can he reset the squad for the stretch run?
Hang on, because Saturday we’re gonna begin finding out.
- Thorns FC: Glass half..? - September 10, 2024
- Thorns FC: Bad to worse - September 3, 2024
- Thorns FC: Easy to be hard - August 27, 2024
I think you hit the nail on the head. I would like to see a player who can put the ball in the goal, because right now its Smith and a lot of prayers. Perhaps that player is the return of Weaver, perhaps its Linnehan continuing to grow. I’m not convinced that player is on the team right now.
Depth in the Midfield would be nice to see, but again perhaps that player is expected to be the return of Moultre and the growth of OWK. Maybe its MacKenzie? Who really knows.
I don’t think the team needs starting level players to fill either of those positions, as a veteran who still has some good run in them would do the job. We are going to see if the young players fit the bill, but the track record of the coaches doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence right now. I do like the fact that the team seems to be a tight knit group of players, but that could work against the improvement of the team. The second half of the season could propel the team as it isn’t very challenging, but a few players need to really step up.
I find myself not overflowing with confidence in this team. We’re a good team but not a great one, and 4th or 5th seems about right. I wish we would get players to make #1 seem about right.
My thought is that assuming Weaver and Moultrie return on form there’s a promising roster here. I tend to agree that it’s not the players; it’s the coaching. I don’t trust this recent Kenthusiasm; I think he’s who he was in the regular season – a “4th/5th place” kind of guy.
But we’ll have to see; like I said – the schedule has given us a chance, if we can take it.
I had to laugh about the Hot Dog stands outside PP. It looked good on my way to a Timbers game, but $10 Really! Well now I am glad I took a pass too.
This has felt like a really long break in Thorns soccer. I hope Weaver is back to playing. Even if I don’t expect her to be 100%, just seeing her enthusiasm and spark on the field will be nice.
But! I am super disappointed there have been so few moves by the front office during this break. Getting rid of one of five keepers is not exactly the kind of brave move I was hoping for.
Soph and Sam should be coming back happy and in the best shape of their life. Against Brazil in the first half I was beginning to buy Foudy’s concern about lack of rotation and tired legs. But in the second half it appeared to me that the tired legs belonged to Brazil. They were making tired mistakes and taking no hope shots.
It wasn’t easy! Those dogs looked mighty tasty what with all the onions and peppers and bacon, but ten bucks is just too steep, so no. But the whole “immigrant-slaving-gangster” part? I did NOT see that coming.
I’d like to see Weaver not just back but back on form; her early season was kind of an ugly revision to her “run straight and blast” form of her earliest seasons. She’d lost a lot of the cleverness of ’22 and ’23 – maybe a knock? Headspace issues? I think we need her to have guile more than enthusiasm if she’s gonna start scoring again.
As for roster moves…well…you’ll note that my suggestions weren’t really “brave moves”. Rocky was a spot-starter and mostly only used in the 4-2-3-1. Beckie seems to have a gear we just haven’t seen. Could we jump the table with the roster we have? I think so! But it’ll take more than (as you note) Smith hero-ball. So, coaching. The brave move I would have liked to see would have been grabbing, say Pochettino rather than settling for Ken. But that’s dusted…
The US did what they needed. They were in control when they needed to be – Germany – and ground out results when they needed them (Japan, Brazil). I think both finalists were pretty gassed. But Brazil’s long-running problem has been errors in back. When their attack converts it doesn’t matter so much. But in the Final it wasn’t, the US defending was generally solid, and one goal was enough…
First, a belated: Yay, Olympians!
Feeling middlingwhelmed by the Thorns moves so far. I guess my “so far” means I expect another boot to thump on the locker room carpet, but that may prove wishful thinking. They may think we won’t recognize Weaver and Moultrie and will assume they’re new?
I’ve given up trying to follow the starter in the ongoing goalkeeper monte game. I hope Arnold proves to be a significant signing? Or Hogan continues to improve? Or Bixby continues to run? Or one or more of the deeper keepers gets loaned somewhere she can do something more productive than carrying an electrolyte caddy?
Alexa Spaanstra seems like good depth, as y’all noted, but swapping some pocket change for her doesn’t scream, “Ambitious!” None of the teams ahead of the Thorns on the table are looking over their shoulders thinking, “Oh, shit! Here they come!”
And I’m well past the age where I would scarf a hot dog at 9:45 pm, but at least the city and county bureaucracies provided entertainment worthy of a hearty, “Huzzah!” Imagine looking around Portland these days and drawing the line where you will make your stand across a mound of aromatic onions and peppers. Add in rumors of human trafficking to assert that onion mound amounts to a moral high ground. Brilliant!
Hoping the (ahem) “next” Thorns signing proves that entertaining.
Again…I’m not sure the plan is to overhaul the roster. I think there are players who might have another gear. Clearly Beckie isn’t one of them, but I’m unconvinced we’ll see a “big name” signing over the next week or so. Offseason? Depends on the stretch run, I think.
Spaanstra is not a huge signing, but it seems she might be as good as Linnehan or Beckie and possibly better than those two. I am a big Weaver fan so I am not expecting her to be that good. But hey she was on the U-17 with Soph so she must be pretty good. The fact that she wound up on the bench behind Chawinga is not exactly a black mark on her quality. Afterall there are probably only two players in the NWSL in the same extraterrestrial orbit as Chawinga; those would be Barbara Banda and Sophia Smith.
Spaanstra and Turner seem like good signings for a relatively low cost – $40k for the former, and Beckie’s play for the remainder of this season for the latter (she’s a free agent come December). I don’t think either one is ever going to be a huge star but they could both be pretty good, either as backups or as starters if they can work their way into that. Now if we could just get a top-level centerback to learn from, and at some point replace, Sauerbrunn….
Also, glad to see that KK will let a Canadian go! I wasn’t sure she had it in her until now.
Both looked okay today but couldn’t overcome the other player problems inherent in Ken’s favorite 4-3-3. Without Coffey we can NOT play a single pivot, and even Spaanstra couldn’t overcome the inherent sluggishness of D’Aquila on the wing and Sinc at CF. Plus the backline’s pace (and lack of mutual cover, and failure to close people down) combined with Hogan’s brutal footwork and soft dive on the second concession.
So I think that mediocre mess we saw today? Without Smith and Coffey and Weaver that’s what we are. WITH them…maybe a skosh better. But we’re nowhere near the top four this season.
The real question is; what will the owners do about that in the offseason..?
With Sinc galumphing down the pitch, it’s really hard to look at the set up and say, “yes, that’s the right lineup.” It feels like we are throwing Sinc into the lineup because that’s what we’ve done. Once she came out, subbed by Turner, things felt slightly different. Let’s reset.
Take Sinc out of the starting line up, sub Turner. Widen the setup and be willing to press forward quickly, and we’ve got a game.
damn.
Wellll…no. Not really. Take a look at Henderson’s xG plot (https://x.com/chris_awk/status/1827847730208665631). Turner made maybe 0.01xG difference. The midfield continued to be an ineffective mess, so pressing would have just made the squad even more vulnerable to the counterpress and turnovers.
The feels may have said “yes” but the metrics said “no, no, no”…
That the subs made no difference, when we know Sinc is now a boat anchor and D’Aquila was ineffective? That SCREAMS “coaching fail”.
So…no. Spaanstra, Turner, D’Aquila, Linnehan…none of them have the Smith ability to grab a match and shake a result out of it, because the tactics and 4-3-3 doesn’t fit this roster. Ken plays Smith hero-ball because it’s all he has that works…