We’re on hold in the league for a month or so – the next league matches aren’t until the third week of August – to accommodate the Olympic Games.
(We’re not the only ones! The Tour de France (and I’m a closet cycling fan, so I know this) is finishing off outside the Champs Elysees for the first time since 1975 (and is finishing with an individual time trial, perhaps to provide the sort of excitement the finale did in 1989 when Greg Lemond came from almost a minute back to win by eight seconds!)
Between now and then there is some sort of soccer-like thing called the “Summer Cup” involving the left-behind rosters of the NWSL and a bunch of preseason LigaMX Feminil clubs. Enh. Whatever. I’ll peek in and see if there’s anything to be said about it.
But since we don’t have any real soccer to discuss, how about a “State of the Squad” post? Specifically in light of the latest signing, former West Ham and Australia goalkeeper Makenzie Arnold?
Why not start there?
So, Arnold. Thirty years old, tall (5’11”), quintessential journeywoman in the WoSo world having played for now-nine professional clubs including Perth, Canberra, Bsibane, Western Sydney, Arna-Bjørnar in Norway’s Toppserien, Chicago, West Ham and now Portland.
Armold seems like a solid professional keeper but not one I see in the top flight of the trade; she’s not Jane Campbell or Ann Kartin-Berger or Mary Earps. The comps in her FBRef profile are players like Lysianne Proulx and Elisa Launay. Here’s a look at her side-by-side with Earps:
Head to head Arnold looks better in the air (see the “crosses stopped” bar third from bottom) and against spot-kicks (which is how she started trending – her penalty saves in the 2023 World Cup quarterfinal – as the “Brick Wall”). Her concessions from the run of play look significantly worse, though how much of that is her and how much is West Ham (true WSL dross, finishing 11th of 12 this past season, 3-6-13) is hard to say.
The bottom line is that 1) Arnold looks like a fairly average international keeper who is being touted largely for a recent glittery performance in a knockout tournament who joins a team that 2) already has a crap-ton of goalkeepers, including current starter Shelby Hogan, former starter Bella Bixby, Mexico international Emily Alvorado, 2024 draftee Kat Asman, and 2023 draftee Lauren Kozal.
Obviously many of these players are going to be gone; loaned, sold, traded, waived, whatever. GM Karina LeBlanc didn’t sign a shiny object like Arnold to bench her; my guess is that she will be between the sticks on August 24th.
To assess that we need to look at the whole roster. I mean, the Thorns clearly didn’t need more goalkeeping based on pure numbers; and the question of quality doesn’t look definitive to me; in terms of “goals prevented” Hogan has shaken off the early season woes to become a slightly above-average NWSL starter:
Will Arnold be a Jane Campbell level upgrade on Hogan?
No.
Will she be an upgrade on Hogan?
Maybe. But was this the best use of the Bhathals’ resources? Like I said; to do that, let’s look at the roster.
The summer transfer window opens in August. What should we hope for/look for then?
Keepers:
Here’s the huge goalkeeper squad:
Hard to say what the club will do with all these bodies, because it’s hard to say where on the depth chart each one is. My best guess is that it now looks like this:
1 – Arnold
2 – Hogan
3 – Alvorado
4 – Asman/Kozal
? – Bixby
Bixby’s return from maternity leave throws a big question mark in this table. Will she? The last maternity leave saga – Dunn’s – ended badly for the club, but that was pre-sale. It’s still a big ask for what might be nothing more than a bench job.
So does the club deal her? They obviously have to shed some of these bodies, but which ones? Alvorado or Hogan seems more likely to get return value than Asman or Kozal…but that means they HAVE more value.
What’s certain is that there’s no way in Hell this whole mob is here in October.
Needs? None, other than shedding some dead wood.
Urgency? None; indeed, the opposite. The Arnold signing is kind of baffling to me because of that.
Defenders:
Here they are…
The current defender depth chart would seem to look like this:
Sauerbrunn. Starting left centerback. Aging out, but not this season
Hubly/Obaze. I’m not sure which of these two the FO sees as higher on the depth chart. I’d put Obaze there, but the club seems to disagree.
Muller. Starting LB
Reyes/Payne. Same thing as Hubly/Obaze; I’m not sure who the FO sees as higher. I think of them as a platoon; Reyes when you need defense, Payne when you need attack.
Klingenberg. LB/MF(?) depth
Nally. FB/CB depth
Needs?
Short term: 1) I’m not sure if either Obaze or Hubly is solid starter stuff. A better centerback might help this sketchy defense. 2) Depth is…not deep. Klingenberg is not capable of replacing Muller for the full 90, and Nally isn’t really more than in-case-of-emergency-break-glass. Both centerback and fullback positions need better backup.
Long term: Replacement for Sauerbrunn.
Urgency? Not top priority, but if a quality defender is available, I’d like to see the FO make an offer.
Midfielders:
I’d say that there’s a big step between the starters and the others. On the top step are:
Coffey. Dead lock starter at DM
Sugita. I like her further up the pitch, but the current regime seems to want her to play either a double pivot alongside Coffey or a sort of hybrid #6/#8. Either way more defensive that suits her strengths, IMO.
Fleming. Mostly a #8, but her role with the CWNT is more offensive, so sort of an 8/10. Growing into her club, too – her recent outings have been significantly better.
Moultrie. When healthy the #8/10 starter, and should be healthy by late August.
The step below are the other four midfielders; just depth, and none of them have shown anything special, though Wade-Katoa and Sheva have seen minutes while McKenzie and Provenzano haven’t.
Needs? I don’t see this so much as a need for another MF body as a need to sort out roles. The midfield seems to have a lot of overlapping pieces forward of Coffey, but what I’m seeing is a kind of formlessness, a lot of people playing well that don’t seem to be as effective as they should be for the squad. Could a new head coach sort the midfield out? I’d like to see that.
Urgency? Moderate; again, I think the right pieces are there. They just need organizing, and that is a “work-in-motion” kind of thing that can happen as the end of the season progresses, IF the right direction is coming down from above.
Forwards:
Top step – Smith. What else needs to be said?
Behind Smith, though? Trouble.
Second step – two forwards who look like immediate starting quality: Beckie, who, like Fleming, has been having a vastly-improved run of form, and Weaver who, unfortunately, has 1) been injured, and 2) having the opposite run before the injury.
The single biggest question for a team which has 27GF but only four over the last 540 minutes is finding goals from people not named Smith. The problem here is that Beckie hasn’t scored since Matchday 5, and Weaver had one on Matchday 3 before her injury two games later, so despite their spot on the second-from-top step the goals haven’t come from these two.
Below that – promising young players, D’Aquila and Linnehan. Both haven’t shown sustained high-level performance, though. Can they? D’Aquila’s history suggests not, while Linnehan doesn’t have any.
Dias has been frankly disappointing, especially as an international.
Sinclair is no longer a legitimate attacking threat.
Needs? A scoring forward.
Urgency? Soon, if not sooner, unless 1) Weaver returns in 2022 form, 2) Beckie begins scoring for her club the way she does for her country, or 3) one of the others breaks out (which I consider vanishingly unlikely at this point).
Conclusions:
I’d put the Thorns roster needs in order as:
1) Forward. The club needs to help take the pressure off Smith. If one of the current roster can help, great. That hasn’t happened, suggesting it will require an outside body.
2) Defender. Preferably a starting-quality centerback, but definitely better depth. A versatile CB/FB might be ideal.
3) Midfielder. As I said, I don’t see the need as so much another body as it is sorting out roles and tactics for the current roster.
4) Goalkeeper. Holy shit, where do they all go? Can we field more than one, like in the charity match..?
I’m curious to hear your thoughts.
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This decision had me scratching my head, but it is not surprising. KK brought in an Aussie goal keeper coach and he thinks a lot of Macca. He has seen the current large group of Thorn’s keepers and thinks Macca is better and maybe she is.
Your conclusions are right a more lethal forward is needed, a backup six and and another Centerback. Hubly could leave, as it looks like the Timbers are shopping her boyfriend Williamson, he looked good Sunday. Sauerbrunn could retire and Obaze is an international.
I guess I question KK or the Thorn’s search team’s priorities and actually the size of their rolladex. We need a top coach who has a plan and will ask for players that fit the tactics he wants to use. While it might be risky to build around Smith, that is what I wish they would do. I also think that several NWSL teams are ripe for poaching under used potential stars.
As for our forwards, when Weaver is fit and on, she is perfect, I have confidence in her. Janine for as long as I have been aware of her has been up and down. I think Linnehan, who Norris calls collegy, will eventually be a good one, Norris doesn’t seem to trust her yet. D’Aquila is a 9, a true poacher and when used there she is fine. But another forward is needed.
Lots to unpack here, so let me try to go in order:
1) The Arnold signing reeks of “Shiny Object”. Based on her WSL metrics she’s a fairly average professional keeper. But…Arnold got a huge boost from the WC shootout saves, Hogan has been under fire for her early season form, and the club needed to show they were “doing something”, so. If she’s better than her WSL numbers, great. But my question would be if the other five keepers are so lame…what does that say about the club’s player evaluation process..?
2) I do, too.
3) When you have a Smith, you build around her (unless she’s being clear that she wants out or you can’t afford to keep her). It’s really just that simple.
4) Dunno anyone other than Jadyn Shaw off the top of my head, but I’m not the Thorns GM. We’ll see if LeBlanc is better than me.
5) Sport is a “what have you done for me lately” business. Weaver has been sliding since 2022, and now she’s returning from her first real major injury. Whether or not you or I or Lisa Bhathal has confidence that she can be 2022 Weavr again it’s up to her to do that. All the club can do is come up with a tactical setup that favors her and give her minutes. After that, we’ll just have to see.
6) Same with Linnehan. What I see as the problem is that there are too many bodies stacked up in front of her many – like Dias – who seem to be less effective that their c.v.’s promise.
7) That’s really hard to say. As of today D’Aquila has one poacher’s goal. Does that mean she’s fine? Because Smith plays best at CF, and the Thorns seldom have the sort of attack that benefits a fox-in-the-box, so putting D’Aquila there seems to nerf a more dangerous weapon.
8) Yep.
Could we puhleeeeze get more goalkeepers? I mean, you never know when one is out on leave and your other five get injured and then where are you? Playing Kling in goal? Much as I admire Kling, I just don’t think so.
More seriously, I see another GOOD forward – not just another NWSL-backup-level one, which Dias seems to be – as easily the highest priority. Somehow Beckie seems to be really good for Canada but not so much here, so I’d prefer a right-sided forward to complement Weaver on the left. On defense, I’m more confident in Obaze than you are – her touch looks really good, she has the necessary calmness and confidence, and she seems smart enough that she can learn the rest of the job. But I suspect Sauerbrunn will retire after this year and Hubly will want to follow Williamson wherever the Timbers trade him to (IMO he’s seriously underutilized here), so we’re going to need two starting-level centerbacks before next year.
Re: keepers , see my reply above. To me it suggests either 1) Angerer was slipping her last couple of years here, or 2) the current FO sees a need at the position bigger than I do, because I agree with you; to blow an international spot and what is probably a pretty decent chunk of change on this keeper when we desperately need attacking quality support? Makes no sense to me.
I’m still not sure what the issue is with either Beckie or Fleming. Both are looking much improved as individuals, neither seems to be able to turn that into more success for the squad.
I’m fine with Obaze; my question is whether or not the club is. Frankly I see no reason to start Hubly over her, but that appears to be the plan. If that IS the plan then I’d rather see them sign a better player than both of them. That plays into the Sauerbrunn retirement, too, so. But you’ll note that it’s down my list, so not critical…
A few thoughts….
Our hoarding of goalkeepers is at least meme-worthy, but…. yeah. Clearly there’s a master plan, right? I mean, there would have to be. I think. Maybe? We shall see. Popcorn might be the appropriate snack to watch this mystery play out, given its tendency to fly off in unexpected directions.
A wee bit harsh, or perhaps just hurried, to dismiss Gabby Provenzano as not having seen any minutes when she suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Depth player or no, she would have to be bionic to play this year, John. (Hmm. Lindsay Wagner hails from Portland, right? “We have the technology….”)
My sense of Morgan Weaver’s early season struggles was she did not start the season a hundred percent physically. The relationship between the heavy tape job (in various colors) on her right knee the first four or five games, and her injury to, and subsequent arthroscopic surgery on, that same knee, does not strike me as coincidental. (As we’ve discussed elsewhere in other contexts, I don’t tend to believe in coincidences….)
Aside from that conjecture, to my eyes she seemed to have more difficulty than in the past separating from fullbacks, even taking into account the grizzly gap most teams now afford her. She also seemed to struggle when bodied in ways one would expect if one were not fully confident in a knee. Just my impression of what was going on, and certainly she seemed less effective. Her numbers bear that out, although she suffered the injury in the seventh game, not the fifth. (You omitted the two games you took hiatus, I suspect.)
That said, I’m not sure why you would pine for a return to 2022 form when, just last year, she finished third in the league, behind Soph (16), and Kerolin (13) in everybody’s favorite megastat, “Goal Contributions”, with 11. Sure, she almost matched that in fewer games/minutes in 2022. But is finishing third in the league in Goals/Assists a sign of troubling decline? Hardly.
Like most everybody, I want a functioning midfield. Aside from chiseled in the clipboard starter Sam Coffey, I don’t know what combination I prefer, aside from the airhead’s guess of, “The one that actually works?” The missing ingredient there might, as you suspect, not be another MF, but rather a…. coach.
Soph needs support. Consistent support that dilutes the swarms of defenders she draws like ankle gouging piranha. I wouldn’t mind Caroline Graham Hansen on the right wing, but alas, she’s signed at FCB through 2026. So, somebody gettable, and capable of compiling those “goal contributions”, who also demands, if not a grizzly gap, at least a wolf wariness.
And since it’s Christmas in July, sure, somebody to buttress the back line. Maybe someone akin to a Swiss Army knife, capable of playing multiple roles. Let’s not get too wacky during the summer transfer window, though, and demand a lockdown starter. Who knows how many more goalkeepers they might sign if our wish list grows too expansive?
As Constant Weeder points out, I don’t think the Arnold signing was anything but a grab for a shiny available thing. The GK coach is a fellow Australian and I think this was just an antipodes-version of the LeBlanc/Canadian nepo hires. They’ll have to sort it out somehow because there’s WAY too many keepers for the limited roster.
Provenzano is such an afterthought that I’d forgotten she was on the DL, but she hasn’t seen anything but garbage minutes since July of 2022. She’s such deep depth she’s barely able to see out of the roster hole.
As you point out, Weaver has been slowly slipping since ’22 (1,700-odd minutes in 18 starts, 8G 4A, ~200m/G) through ’23 (2,000-odd minutes in 25 starts, 10G 4A, ~200m/G) – not much, but working a little bit harder for similar rewards until she falls off the table this year (500-odd minutes in 7 starts, 1G 0A, ~500m/G). Injury? Illness? Yips? Some combination of all three? Does it really matter which?
Bottom line, she needs at LEAST 2022 (or 2023) Weaver back if she’s going to be effective again. I’ll take either one, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
As for the rest, well…yeah. Need someone – whether it’s a signing or Fleming/Beckie busting out – to help Smith out. Need some organization in midfield. Need someone – either a signing or Obaze – to step up at CB and some depth.
Can we deal one or more of this swarm of keepers for that? That’d be good…
I don’t think Arnold’s status as first signing of the summer means GK was the FO’s top priority. After all, NWSL players can’t be signed till Aug 1. She seems like an opportunistic grab, and she’s presumably well known and well regarded by the new keeper coach. I certainly hope she turns out to be better than Proulx — what little I’ve seen of her was not impressive.
Agreed. It looks like an opportunity signing, period. We’ll have to see what happens after 8/1 to gauge whether there’s a bigger plan in the works.
And I looked through the FBRef stuff; I’m not sure why they listed Proulx as a comp. Her numbers are 1) not that similar, and 2) not as good. So Arnold is a bit better than Proulx. But…she’s nowhere near as good as Campbell, and that’s the legitimate top tier of keepers. So, decent? Better than Hogan? Probably. a LOT better than Hogan? Maybe…or not.
I’ve been puzzling over something. There’s a disconnect between Arnold’s stats, which are pretty meh, and what people who see her seem to think of her, which is generally very good: she’s been the captain of her club, indicating high regard by the coaches, and also the MVP of West Ham’s supporters’ group, indicating high regard by fans. Some of her high regard probably comes from views of her character rather than her playing ability, but you generally have to have both ability and character for both the captaincy and the MVP vote.
What gives? Is she like Michelle Betos, fairly average as a goalkeeper but prone to spectacular-looking saves (and, in Betos’s case, a goal) and therefore highly noticeable? That can happen with keepers. Or is it a case of a bad defense making her look poor statistically even though she’s really pretty good? That can also happen. Or, most likely, some of both… but how much? Inquiring minds want to know.
Good question. I like stats and trust them over my eyes, but some people think goalie stats can be misleading. You are right West Ham is not a top of the table team in a pretty lopsided league. The teams at the top have fearsome attackers so bad defending in a league with some awesome worldy forwards may hurt her stats. But as John said she is no where near as good as Campbell who is another player on a poor team in a league with some excellent attacking players.
I think we will just have to see.
I made this comment over at Stumptown but I think it’s worth repeating, and that’s that good goalkeeping is boring to watch.
The best technical keepers – the Shults and Campells, Sheridan in her prime – use a combination of positioning, tactical nous, and anticipation to make it look like every shot is right at them and every cross right to them. They make their opponents’ attackers work to get past them.
Down the scale, though, the keepers that don’t have those skills have to work their tails off, and the circus catches and big dives draw the eye. Particularly if the backline in front of them is – as I’d expect West Ham’s is – poor.
That’s where the “goals prevented over 90” stat washes out the defending (sorta); if you take not just SOG or shots faced versus safes but the quality of the shot (which is where you really want post-shot xG not raw xG) versus GA you end up with the goals the keeper prevented as opposed to the backline offered.
That’s where you look at Campbell versus Arnold and see the big difference. Both of them are behind crap backlines that allow lots of dangerous chances. One – Campbell – stones those, the other – Arnold – doesn’t, really. That suggests she’s…not bad, just sort of in there with the rest of the pack.
Now…stats can mislead, and Arnold’s glittery rep is a hint that they might in this case. But we won’t know until she starts playing here and we get to see her form as well as her numbers. Obviously I hope the WSL metrics are misleading and she’s all that her rep says she is, because otherwise we’ve stuffed the locker with keepers when we have other more pressing needs…
Permanent Coach Gale?
1st thought – Cost effective.
2nd thought – He’s great PR. People love him…
3rd thought – We finish 5th and hope for a better season next year.