Drafts and Deals 2024

It’s dark and cold as I type this, in the pre-dawn of Saturday the 13th, as all of us here in Portland await the first snowpocalypse of the new year and recover from the 2024 NWSL Draft.

Yeah. That happened. Yesterday.

I’d like to talk about how that affected the Thorns, but first, this:

Draft? Hunh! Good God, y’all! What is it good for..?

Saw this at Kassouf’s X-joint that got me thinking:

Let me try and unpack this a bit.

1. Drafts are a shitty way to build teams. For the players, anyway, who are meat puppets kidnapped by organizations they have no agency in choosing.
2. That said, to change “the need for the draft” presumes moving towards the way pretty much every other national soccer league everywhere else in the world does business.
3. And that – which I’m all for, BTW – means a seismic shift in how American soccer does business.
4. It means a pyramid of leagues with smaller teams in lower leagues developing and selling players up the pyramid. It means academies – WORKING academies (meaning developing significant numbers of players instead of handfuls) – at all the professional clubs. It means a vastly densified network of agents and scouts and general managers.
5. And it’d be bad for the NCAA. It’d mean that the pro clubs would be no longer beneficiaries but rivals of the colleges. I guarantee that the NCAA would fight anything like that like rabid weasels.

So I agree that questioning “the need for the draft” is good. I’d love to see more soccer journos asking, and more league and USSF bodies forced to think and reply.

But I also think that those questions have to presume numbers 1 through 5 above, and the answers have to address them.

Am I confident that will happen?

Did I mention we’re worried about snow this morning?

Before the Draft: a Deal

Looking back at our pre-draft discussion, I posited that the Thorns needed:

1. Starting centerback
2. Reserve centerback (or second starting CB)
3. Starting/reserve fullback? Possibly reserve winger here, instead.
4. Reserve center forward
5. Reserve midfielder

Looking at this list I should have moved “winger” a bit further up; either leading #3 or even up to #2 before the draft, because four days earlier the Thorns signed:

Danish centerback Isabella Obaze…

…from Rosengard.

She’s tall and young and her professional experience consists of a total of four years, and 72 games with three clubs:

From 2018 to mid-2020 she played for a called KoldingQ in the Danish top flight. A brief look at this outfit suggests that they’re not such of a muchness; lots of local Danish players and small-cap-number Danish internationals.

Between December 2020 and October 2022 she played for HB Køge Women, also in the Danish Elitedivisionen. Reads as a bigger, better club than Kolding; played in Europe through her tenure (badly – played 10, lost 7).

In 2022 she moved to FC Rosengård in the Swedish Damallsvenskan where she’s played 10 games.

Remember my wanting to sign Moeka Minami? Wellll…

How ’bout that?

So I think that – at least in the minds of LeBlanc and Norris and whoever else (Lisa Bhathal?) was involved – took some centerback pressure off the club.

At least that’s how it looked on Draft Night yesterday. Because rather than go for backline reinforcement the Thorns used their natural…

#11 (first round) pick:

…to get Payton Linnehan, redshirt senior forward out of Penn State.

Linnehan was not nationally ranked by Top Drawer Soccer, but Chris Henderson had her at #7 on his winger list, rating her as a “three-star” player on his zero-to-four-star scheme.

Speaking of Henderson, he thought that this pick was kinda-sorta:

Two things about that:

First, Henderson – as Friend of the Rivet Trail 33 pointed out over at the Stumptown thread – is a “stats guy” whose overall assessment is heavily skewed by the numbers. So his “B+” should be viewed in that light.

But.

He kind of has a point in that when we picked her two of his more-favored players were still in the board; Avery Patterson (North Carolina, his #5 winger and also Top Drawer’s #85 overall – she went to Houston with their natural #19 in the second round) and Amanda West (Pittsburgh, his #6, who dropped way down into the third round – Houston again with #36 – probably because of injury).

I get why LeBlanc & Co. might have been wary of West (Janine Beckie says “hi…ouch!”) but not sure why they skipped over Patterson to take Linnehan. Their production was damn near identical. I hate to say this, but given her priors I’m not sure I trust KK’s assessment more than Henderson’s.

So there’s that.

Interestingly, for a winger, anyway, Linnehan looks like a scorer rather than a creator. She knocked in 10 goals on an xG of about 7, but put up only 3 assists on an xA of about 2.5. Which makes me wonder how much of a true “winger” she is.

I didn’t see any Penn State games last season, so I’m left without any real idea how she played there. I’d love to hear from someone in the comments who did; left wing? Right wing? Does she turn inside and, a la Weaver? Her crossing numbers are fairly average, about 3 per match (compare that to Brecken Mozingo, Hendeson’s #1 winger and Top Drawer’s #2 overall, who typically knocked in nearly 5 per match).

However she looked, Ms. Linnehan is our first round pick.

What do I think?

Well, I’d have gone for a centerback, as you’re probably sick of hearing.

As a winger, though, if I’d have been the GM I probably would have gone with Patterson, which is why I’m giving this pick a solid B.

Good, but could have been better.

#23 (second round) pick:

Olivia Wade-Katoa, true senior midfielder out of Brigham Young University

This was the only “double pick” round for Portland, this pick coming off a 2022 trade.

OWK is a tall drink of water (5’8″) who was ranked #21 nationally by Top Drawer and #11 on Henderson’s midfielder sheet. He liked the pick:

The woman can score! Twelve goals last season on an xG of just over seven, and throw in three assists.

She looks balanced offensively and defensively, too; while only 50% of her dribbles were successful she threaded passes into her forwards (almost 5 per game, and 65% were completed) and her duels-won (65%) is about average for her group. She’s not terrific in the air (41%), kinda weird given her height.

Overall? A good-looking package.

This pick, though, is part of a trend we’re going to see more of next; KK & Co. going with a notionally-less-well-regarded player, at least per one assessment; Caroline Conti and Maddie Mercado, though not nationally ranked, were higher on Henderson’s list. Mercado, his #6 out of Notre Dame, went to Seattle with their #27 pick overall, while Conti, Henderson’s #7 out of Clemson, fell to all the way to Bay City’s #34 pick.

In OWK’s case, though, I buy the argument for her, which is

What do I think?

…why I give this pick an A-/B+; good solid pick. This player looks promising at a position – midfield – that was often spotty and disjointed last season.

But now?

#25 (second round) pick:

Kelsi Kaufusi, senior centerback out of Utah State

Kafusi wasn’t nationally ranked (unsurprising given where she played) and was waaaay down Henderson’s centerback list, in what he calls “Tier C”, meaning players from smaller schools in weaker conferences.

Also unsurprisingly, Henderson haaaated this pick:

Now fuckadoo, Chris. Her passing is why you hated her? I direct your attention to a certain Ms. Hubly; we Thorns laugh at your “forward pass”. We already have one of those. Ready, fire, aim, Kelsey.

Kaufusi’s defensive chops look sound; 75% of her duels won (including 63% in the air – she’s 5’9″ so she should be up there first…). Fairly tidy on the ball (about 10 lost balls per match in a cadre where 7 to 9 is about average).

But I’m still torn on this pick.

Yes, it’s centerback depth and I think we needed centerback depth (y’think..? Sorry).

But, no, Kaufusi isn’t a big name get, or even the “best” available centerback. Hannah Anderson from Texas Tech, Top Drawer’s #28 overall and #9 on Henderson’s CB sheet, went to Chicago with their #31 pick.

We’ll have to see with this player.

What do I think?

I think this is a big reach. I think there were players available that looked as good or better from schools and conferences that provided better testing of those players’ skillsets. I think this is only potential depth, and risky depth even then, which is why I’m giving this pick a C/C-.

Adequate, but only if the FO knows something about her that’s not in the public record.

Now we’re down in the tules.

#39 (Third Round) pick:

Katherine Asman, fifth-year grad student goalkeeper out of Penn State.

What. The. Actual. Fuck?

This can only be one of two things:

1. One of the THREE keepers already rostered has some sort of major malfunction and is power-diving for the scrap heap, or
2. This was a colossal waste of a pick even in garbage time.

Update 1/14: Turns out it’s door #1:

Okay, sorta – not a “malfunction” but a happy thing – the Bixbys are going to be parents (good luck, you three! Feel free to DM me about “sleep deprivation” and “bodily fluids”…)

Which means that the pick that looked doolally given what we knew at the time was a reasonable one given the need we know now.

So…since it turns out to be a reasonable pick let’s actually look at Asman.

Henderson had her as a “one-star” #10 on his big sheet. Top Drawer Soccer didn’t rank her nationally.

Her 2023 goals-to-xGa looks fine (14 conceded on xGa over 19). And her college record suggests a player with a solid learning curve; from a GAA over one (1.44G/Gm) in her first regular starting season in 2021, Asman improved to 0.98 in 2022 and made a big jump to 0.64 in 2023. The improvement looks like “her”; the squad in front of her looks similar, going 15-5-3 in ’22, 16-3-4 in ’23.

Her distribution looks crummy but a) welcome to Portland, Kat!, and b) who gives a shit (as you know my position on keeper distribution…).

What I get out of this is that Asman in a perfectly decent college keeper, which is what the club needs now that Hogan has the starter’s job to lose and Kozal and Asman will duke it out to see who backs Hogan up and who gets towel duty on matchday.

Again, though…it’s worth noting that at the time of the Asman pick goalkeeper Allie Augur (Georgetown), Top Drawer #19 overall, 9GA on a PSxG of 14.47, 0.33 GAA remained unclaimed.

What do I think?

D. C/C+.

Another of these “Thorns 2024 Draft went-for-someone-who-looks-less-impressive-than-other-available-players” things. Especially with keepers – college keepers are 1) notoriously chancy and 2) readily available. Look at Henderson’s GK sheet; six of his top ten went undrafted. So I think this one goes as another good but might have been better. We’ll just have to wait and see how Asman shapes in preseason,

(Weird non-soccer related thing about this player: Seinfeld. Apparently there was an Seinfeld joke about a character with a license plate that read “ASSMAN”. I didn’t watch the show, but lots of people did and thus this player generated a whole bunch of hilarity over at Stumptown. Guess you had to be there.)

#53 (Fourth Round) Pick:

Katie Duong, fifth-year midfielder out of Stanford

This player seems to have been a hot prospect as an underclassman at University of Minnesota. Transferred to Stanford her junior year, and once there got only a little over 1,300 minutes over three years. Four starts, two goals, six assists.

I’m with Henderson on her; there’s not really enough data to evaluate Duong. She’s a Portland kid (Jesuit), so there’s that. And, as noted, she seems to have been really good at Minnesota.

Could she be good here? Hope so! With her lack of record and the fact that last round picks are always a crapshoot, though, so who knows?

What do I think?

No idea; this one gets an Incomplete. We’ll just have to see how she looks in preseason (and if she sticks, beyond).

So okay.

That’s our 2024 Draft (and a deal).

Thoughts?