The Thorns Prediction Game: MD4 POR v KCC

Coupla things.

First, an apology.

To PTFC Dave specifically, for doing the math wrong and forgetting two points earned from the Seattle match. Fixed, as you’ll see.

To the readership, generally, for bogueing on the match report from Wednesday’s 3-1 away loss in San Diego.

Normally I’d try and crank it out NLT Sunday so I could post the Kansas City-at-Portland report early to mid-next-week. But this is where Life Gets In The Way.

Specifically, this weekend is the Pacific Northwest Kendo Federation’s Spring Iaido Seminar up in Seattle. I’m going to rep my Shu Ken Kai dojo and try to be a better iaidoka. But that means leaving Friday evening and not returning until Sunday evening. THEN I’ll get cranking on the match reports for both matches.

Ugh.

So here’s my plan.

I’m going to post the Prediction Game for Saturday’s match here. Then later today I’m going to start on Wednesday’s match so, hopefully, I’ll have enough to finish up quickly Sunday or Monday and can then turn around the KCC game. Fingers crossed.

Quickly; my thoughts on San Diego:

After doing a good job of looking less like a Rob Gale squad in the first two matches the road loss in San Diego dragged a whole bunch of KenBall issues screaming back out of the closet:
– defensive derps, including lack of communication, slack marking, failure to clear loose balls away, and failure to close down the ballcarrier, immediately bit Portland in the ass when Dudinha scored in the 2nd minute (Corley with the assist). Godfrey added a second close to the half hour, and Barcenas put in the dagger in the final ten minutes. The Thorns’ problems included both the backline organization and the midfield positioning, which in an attempt to push up pressing left way too much space in front of the backline for San Diego to exploit.
– San Diego came out pressing high and hard and the Thorns squad reverted to another Gale tendency, losing first composure and then possession. Breaking a high press requires one-touch passing and lightning quick movement to space, and San Diego showed that this Thorns squad isn’t there yet, still sluggish, still dependent on the slow long pass.
– The low-xG numbers we’d seen in DC and against Seattle – that represented the still-unfinished attacking organization – finally came home to roost. Over the first 180 minutes this season the Thorns have had only two genuinely put-together buildups; the Moultrie goal in DC and the Turner goal against Seattle.
San Diego showed that the aimless, formless, scrambling, DIY KenBall “attack” is still there. Pietra Tordin’s 8th minute goal was pure hero-ball, and overall the Thorns were brutally out-scoring-chanced; SDW ran off with 3 goals on an xG over 4, Portland with 1 goal on an xG of about 1.7.

So, well, shit.

As far as prediction went PTFC Dave was our top punter, nailing the result as well as one each of either side’s scorers, and the “fun” points for his yarn about Swedish camaraderie. Ken and Daniel Stratton each got Dudinha as a scorer.

Here’s the league table before Matchday 4:

PlayerLatest RoundCumulative Score
PTFC Dave718
Ken110
DanXP204
Barcasiempre03
Daniel Stratton11

How all this works:
Before the upcoming Thorns match add a comment to this post. As your first line, put your predicted result, for example 1-3 Thorns.

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:
Wilson (Fleming)
Reyes (Free kick)
Moultrie (Unassisted)
Rodman (PK)

Next, name the first yellow card recipient: Sophia Wilson
Then a red card. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.) Trinity Rodman for mimicking mooning the referee after getting an undeserved yellow.

Make your fun prediction,and give a “thumbs up” to anybody else’s prediction that tickles your fancy: “Ryan gets the start against her former club. She gets through 70 minutes without fouling her former teammates until she can’t take it anymore. She pushes over Perry, gives Muller a wedgie, gives Arnold a noogie, then flips off the Riveters and runs out of Providence Park, never to be seen again. The ref issues a red card, which she later contests, and loses.” (h/t to ABell4)

Scoring:
· Correct score: 5 points
· Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
· Each clean sheet: 2 points
· Each goal-scorer: 1 point
· Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
· Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
· Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
· A player with a red card: 1 point
· Most liked/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):
Comments must be posted before kickoff, but you can edit or amend an earlier prediction right up to the starting whistle.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. No crazy scores just to pad out your odds of getting goals and assists.

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you predict the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal, for example, you say Castellanos scores from a Moultrie assist and that is exactly what happens.

Be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = dead ball, not in run of play. FK includes olimpicos from corners. No entry means unassisted.

So, this Saturday.

The loss in San Diego dropped us out of the top three; Portland is currently fifth, 6 points, 2-0-1, 4GF, 3GA. But Kansas City has been utter crap this spring; 11th on 3 points, 1-0-2, 3GF, 6GA. Last weekend they lost (again), this time to Seattle 3-nil.

Both teams are coming off bad losses, both on short rest. Both need a result but equally need solid matches to put the Wednesday clusterfucks behind them.

C’mon, you Thorns! Kansas City is a wounded beast; now’s your chance!

John Lawes
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