Thorns FC: The Curse of Cary

Towards the end of the match the Ion TV announcers couldn’t stop going back to the Thorns’ long history of woe in the Damned Carolina’s Hell.

They kept repeating that “The Thorns’ last win here was in 2021…“, which is true, yeah, okay, fine.

But since for television sports last month is history and last season is ancient history nobody mentioned that Portland has always struggled in Cary, ever since the current tenants absconded from Rochester to become The Damned Courage.

It took two years, from April 2017 (1-nil Damned win) to 2019, for Portland to get so much as a point (in a 1-1 draw that June).

It took another two years, to September 2021, for Portland to grind out a 0-1 win in Hell. Since then?

3-1 loss (August 2022)

3-3 draw (May 2023)

2-nil loss (April 2024)

1-1 draw (last Saturday)

So it wasn’t shocking to me to see the Thorns go from a romp over longtime rivals Seattle to a grinding stalemate in Cary. That’s how the Curse of WakeMed works. That’s just how we play The Damned in fucking Cary.

There were other things that it was frustrating to see, though. Frustrating but sadly not shocking, in that we’ve seen them before, and we’ll take them in order, front to back:

The Thorns created chances but often failed to finish them.

One of the startling and delightful parts of the Seattle match here was Portland’s attackers putting up a huge (+4) xG, post-shot xG, and four goals, because the club has had an issue with a failure to sink their putts this season.

Here’s Henderson’s “xG Differential” spreadsheet:

Ironically, the WORST team in the league for leaving chances on the table is The Damned (27.6 xG, 20 GF).

But we’re second-worst (30.4 xG, 25 GF). Our defending in general bails us out (17GA on an xGa of 22.8, second-best behind Orlando) but when we struggle it’s often because we don’t score.

So we tend to miss a lot of chances, and it turns out that Seattle here was the exception and it was back regressing to our mean on the road.

In Cary the Thorns created about one goal’s-worth of opportunities (counting only attacks that ended in shots), an xG of 1.02. Actual shooting value, post-shot xG? 1.43 so a bit better than the shot matrix predicted.

But goals? Only one.

Here’s some of my notes:
31′ – Tordin misses just wide.
35′ – Carolina bad turnover; Tordin strong run at goal but no help, no options, so shot straight @ Casey Murphy.
43′ – McKenzie great forechecking tackle-for-gain – long pass to running Turner but Murphy out strong to take.
44′ – Nice buildup; McKenzie – Moultrie – Turner strong run to byline, shoss, Murphy blocks out, Moultrie runs on, good finish, 0-1.
46′ – More buildup from long McKenzie outlet, good Fleming cross but Turner header just over the bar.
58′ – Another NCC turnover, but Tordin weak shot, Murphy easy take.
73′ – Castellanos to Tordin, good run but no help, has to shoot @ Murphy
80′ – Long pass outlet to Linnehan, good run but well defended and no help, shot @ Murphy.
82′ – Good buildup Castellanos – Fleming – Tordin – Moultrie but chose to shoot right @ Murphy.
91′ – Linnehan off cleared corner shot just over, nice volley but poor control.

(What’s interesting is that FBRef lists the Thorns with a total of 14 shots. Those include several I didn’t record because I didn’t think they were really dangerous, including an Isabella Obaze header in the 27th minute that the website thinks was the next best attempt (0.28 PSxG) after Linnehan’s 82nd minute (0.52) shot., and several Moultrie blasts-straight-at-Murphy.)

Ten chances in my notes, from which:
Moultrie with the good goal.
Five pure misses or poor shot placements (Tordin at 31′, Turner at 46′, Tordin at 58′, Moultrie at 82′, Linnehan at 91′).
One defensive win (Turner at 43′, though Linnehan at 80′ sorta counts here, too).
Three opportunities which suffered because the attack broke down in the final third, leaving the attacker with no better options than a low percentage shot (Tordin at 35′, Tordin at 73′, Linnehan at 80′)

A good club has got to finish more of those.

The Thorns made individual and/or collective defensive mistakes

This problem sort of ties into the next one, and for this one let’s go back to the notes.

I started noticing that the Thorns midfield and backline weren’t adjusting to Carolina’s inside-out player-and-ball movement early in the first half. Notes again:
12′ – Sanchez to Lussi runs wide to open flank but poor pass inside, Arnold take. (In marginal note: “Reyes?”)
18′ – Jackson wide pass to Lussi run to byline, cross, Pinto tangles with Hiatt, shot blocked by Arnold.

In the margin after the 18th minute attack I scribbled “No width?” meaning that Portland’s fullbacks had shifted inside to counter Sanchez and Pinto and Aline pushing up the middle, but nobody was shifting out to cover Lussi (or Sanchez, or Pinto or Manaka) when they looped back towards the touchlines for the pass out wide.

Near the hour mark the wheels began to come off, and those were primarily Reina Reyes’ (and Mallie McKenzie’s) wheels. Back to the notes again:
59′ – Reyes turnover, NCC buildup…Gomes to Manaka to Gomes inside-out (Reyes caught behind!) Gomes shot, Arnold huge save, Manaka skips off crossbar (the note included several exclamation points for “dangerous attack!!!”)
61′ – McKenzie turnover, Manaka shot just wide left (!!!)
63′ – NCC corner, worked out to Sanchez, shot but right at Arnold (!)
65′ – Sanchez run (Hiatt keeps her onside), squares to Manaka unmarked (Reyes!), Arnold massive save (!!! and in the margin my note asks “is Reyes gassed?”)
69′ – Manaka run to open flank, good cross, cleared but recycled (in the margin “Reyes inside, nobody covering outside??”)
70′ – Free kick to Pinto (Reyes too slow to cover), cross, Shaw shot, Arnold huge, blocked out wide right. Lussi runs on (Torpey inside but doesn’t mark), scores, 1-1.

In the ten minutes after the hour it was clear to me that the Thorns defenders (including the DMs) weren’t adjusting to Carolina’s inside-outside shifts; the fullbacks would get pulled inside, as Reyes does here in the 69th minute…

…but no one moved out to cover the wide spaces. In this case, it’s Manaka who takes the space to receive the pass…

…and has all kinds of space to play with because nobody has covered for Reyes’ move inside, like maybe Hiatt or Obaze or one of the DMs…

…so Manaka gets to the byline with lots of time to tee up options.

Had The Damned been playing strictly vertically, packing the box might have worked. I mean, late match with a lead, cover the center of the defensive third and force your opponent to try and lob crosses in; that’s a tactic. Risky, but doable.

But the other problem was that I think Reyes was gassed by the hour mark. McKenzie had been, too, and so Ken yanked her for Torpey – in itself problematic because of Torpey’s lack of anticipation and tactical crudity – but there’s literally no substitute for Reyes unless…and now we’ll move to the next issue;

The Thorns coaching staff failed to anticipate, or incorrectly reacted to, the game state or individual form

So with Reyes visible gasping and no like for like replacement, what’s a Ken to do?

Well, he could sub in Perry for Reyes and push Obaze outside. Or even try Perry at fullback; she seems fairly pacey for a centerback. He could sub in Daiane for Reyes and move Obaze or Perry wide.

Or he could shift to an entirely different formation, something more defensive. A 4-1-4-1, say, or 4-2-3-1.

A clever and wide-awake gaffer should probably have seen the field tilting by, or before, the hour, and made some adjustments before conceding the lead. Replacing McKenzie with Torpey was more or less just marking time. By the time Gale made any real adjustments – bringing on Castellanos and Linnehan – the Thorns were running out of energy and ideas.

And, in the end, the win.

The Thorns got a point on the road, and that’s not bad.

But they could have taken all three, and that’s not good.

Short Passes

From Sofascore’s “momentum” plot:

…shows the ragged, choppy nature of the match. Back and forth, here and there…until the hour mark when The Damned put the hammer down for the heart of the second half and the equalizer.

Henderson’s xG race plot:

Same thing; Portland chipping away, Carolina with nothing much outside the 18th minute shot until the hour.

I’m headed downstate for work and won’t be able to insert Carlisle-sensei’s fine passing charts, so instead here’s Sofascore’s “player average position” plots, beginning with the starters:

As Carlisle noted last week; KenBall looks like KenBall regardless of the opponent or the outcome, so as usual we see the tight jam of bodies up the middle, with the “wingers” tucked inside and the fullbacks providing what little width there is.

The Damned are spread laterally a bit better, and are overloading the Portland defensive left, finding space behind Sugita and Coffey, inside Reyes, and in front of Obaze. Pinto and Sanchez are attacking the top of the box as Gomes and Lussi swing outside, so pretty much what we saw.

Here’s the late-game state:

Portland very compressed, Torpey isolated wide right, while Carolina pushes Vine waaay up as Pinto keeps on the central pressure.

Interestingly, Speck and Betfort, the late left-flank subs, don’t look like they’re applying much pressure out wide. At the time I assumed Betfort was an attempt to add attack to grab three points at the death, but that sure doesn’t look like it.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent – Venue (Result)	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16
Orlando – Home (W)	18
San Diego – Away (D)	32
Houston – Away (W)	21
Bay FC – Away (L)	No data
Washington – Home (W)	16
Chicago – Home (W)	22
Washington – Away (L)	27
Seattle – Home (W)	20
Carolina – Away (D)	26

Not awful, but troubling when combined with the losses from the press. Fifteen in the first half, eleven in the second. Carolina wasn’t great, either; 16 total, nine in the first half, seven in the second.

The Biggest Loser competition was Reyes with five. McKenzie lost four-and-a-half, Turner lost four, Arnold three. Nobody else lost more than two.

Several were scary, including Reyes’ 59th minute and McKenzie’s 61st minute losses that led directly to Carolina attacks.

Press!

Twelfth match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”. If two players were involved in a press each received a half mark (for attempts) and a half credit for successes.

Another frantic first quarter-hour, and Portland kept pressing fairly hard all match. The problem was that Carolina’s midfield was more mobile and better organized than Seattle’s, and their forwards moved to space in front of their midfield and in front of our backline (or wide of it), so when Carolina passed through – or over – the Portland press, they often found space in front of the Portland midfield and backline, like this…

…then this…

..and finally this.

Match time	NCC presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	15(10) (66.6%)	13(6) (46.1%)
15-30′	7(3) (42.8%)	5(3) (60%)
30-45+2′	4(2) (50%)	11(9) (81.8%)
First half	26(15) (57.6%)	29(18) (62.1%)
45-60′	7(4) (57.1%)	14(12) (85.7%)
60-75′	4(2) (50%)	6(3) (50%)
75-90+5′	10(5) (50%)	10(6) (60%)
Second half	21(11) (50%)	30(21) (70%)
Match Total	47(26) (55.3%)	59(39) (66.1%)

My thoughts:
1) Both sides pressed, and both were fairly successful. That meant that the match would be largely decided by “who finished better” and “who made one less disastrous defensive error”.
2) As usual, Fleming and Moultrie were the busiest pressers. Both had trouble making their pressing stick; Fleming won only six of eleven presses, Moultrie seven of eleven
3) Portland tried a lot of forechecking, as well; Tordin won only two of seven attempts, but Turner won three of five.
4) The most effective? Sam Coffey and Reyes both perfect three of three, Hina-san four of five.
5) Fleming and Reyes were pressed the hardest by The Damned. Both struggled against Carolina’s press; Fleming lost five of eight, Reyes four of nine. Moultrie evaded most of her tacklers, but when she was caught lost three of four, as did Sugita. Coffey split her duels, winning two of four.
6) Tordin was the slipperiest Thorn, winning four of her six challenges, and Turner won two of three.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28/20 (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)	28/17 (60.7%)	43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)	18/18 (100%)	100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)	27/17 (62.9%)	42/23 (54.7%)
Bay FC Away (L)	No data	No data
Washington Home (W)	31(15) (48.3%)	61(48) (78.6%)
Chicago Home (W)	31(21) (67.7%)	51(39) (76.4%)
Washington Away (L)	18(17) (94.4%)	25(12) (48%)
Seattle Home (W)	51(27) (52.8%)	42(33) (78.5%)
Carolina Away (D)	47(26) (55.3%)	59(39) (66.1%)

Good work on both sides, so sort of “fought to the draw” on the press just as on the scoreboard. But that just meant that the match came down to two moments, one each way.

Corner Kicks

Two, all long, all second half

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
86′	Moultrie	Long	Into the mixer, but cleared easily.
91′	Moultrie	Long	Cleared out to Linnehan, whose volley went over the crossbar.

Good effort from Linnehan, so about 50% from corner kicks which is, as we’ve discussed, more than decent production.

Player Ratings and Comments

Turner (73′ – +8/-1 : +3/-1 : +11/-2) All the forwards needed to do better in front of goal in Cary, but Reilyn Turner had the quietest match of the unit; one logged off-target header, 0.15 xG, 0.0 PSxG. Lots of other good work, but the “final grade” for strikers is putting goals on the board.

Linnehan (17′ – +2/-2) Sort of the same as above. Linnehan must look terrible in practice, because otherwise I don’t get not giving the club’s last remaining healthy natural wide forward more minutes.

Tordin (85′ – +6/-0 : +4/-3 : +10/-3) Damned lucky not to have see a straight red in the 79th minute for a flying studs-up tackle from behind that got yellow only because it missed its target. Two of the three minuses are for poor shooting, as well. Not her best work.

Perry (5′ – +1/-0) No real impact, but got Tordin off before she could get sent off, so probably not a bad idea.

Moultrie (+6/-0 : +4/-0 : +10/-0) Woman of the Match for me, tho Arnold deserves a mention. Hard graft on both sides of the ball without really a foot wrong. Well played.

Sugita (73′ – +2/-1 : +1/-0 : +2/-1) Huge letdown from Hina-san‘s terrific work against Seattle; almost invisible much of the match as The Damned worked the ball around her, so the sub off wasn’t exactly a bad move…

Castellanos (17′ – +1/-0) …except replacing her with Castellanos gained the squad nothing, which if you’d watched Castellanos’ play to date was as surprising as discovering water is wet.

Coffey (+1/-1 : +2/-0 : +3/-1) The last time that Coffey and Sugita had similarly poor matches was…oh, yeah; two weeks ago in Washington. And…hmmm. Wonder what happens then. Oh, yeah, I remember now.

Fleming (+4/-0 :+2/-0 : +6/-0) As noted above, struggled against the Carolina press. When this team downshifts into “slow and static” (which seems possible almost on any random matchday…) pressing them works like a mechanical ass-kicker, and it did in Cary. When it does Fleming, who thrives in a quick-passing, fast-moving scheme, suffers, and so she did.

Reyes (+2/-2 : +4/-6 : +6/-8) Her second half was just brutal, and those minuses are all for getting repeatedly skinned, often not for being out of position as shown in the screenshots up top but for pure lack of pace. Manaka, Pinto, Vine…all zipped past her as Reyes looked like she was running in soft sand. We’ve discussed this to death; that’s more on her GM (for roster issues meaning no sub) and her HC (for tactical 1) cluelessness, or 2) failure in figuring out some way to solve her problem).

Obaze (+2/-1 : +1/-0 : +3/-1) Both the centerbacks were generally solid despite the random defensive breakdowns. Most of the danger came from the flanks, many of the Courage attacks were handled decently once they came inside, and Arnold covered those that weren’t (except one).

Hiatt (+2/-0 : +1/-1 : +3/-1) Sort of the same here as Obaze. As we’ve discussed, nobody in back handled the Damned moving the ball inside then back out all that well, but that was a coaching issue, not a player issue.

McKenzie (64′ – +8/-4 : +2/-1 : +10/-5) High-risk/high reward in the first half, then I think started to fade quickly in the second (turnovers, dropped marks) to the point where she got yanked, but…

Torpey (26′ – +0/-3) …her replacement quickly made several brutal errors including a critical failure to pick up Lussi’s run on her goal, so hard to say the move really worked.

Arnold (+2/-0 : +3/-1 : +5/-1) One shaky moment (dropped cross in the 65th minute) offset by huge saves in the 55th, 65th, and 70th minutes as well as critical interventions in the 18th and 39th minutes. No chance on the concession.

Coach Gale: I think I pretty well summed up my opinions in the piece above. Got the road point so the bare minimum/level one unlocked, but 1) Carolina isn’t very good right now and 2) several match-management decisions meant dropping two points, so not really top-quality work.

Because this coming Saturday is the final boss fight, and three points would have been good.

I’m not “pessimistic” about Kansas City; they’re running away with the league, they’re simply head-and-shoulders the best team in the NWSL right now.

If we can hold them to a point? Great! Win? Deliriously wonderful.

But if we don’t get run off the pitch and take a gritty loss?

I can live with that.