Thorns FC: Good Enough for Government Work

Just a week after laying a total beatdown on top-four club Washington the Thorns got a gift from the Gods of NWSL Scheduling; a visit from the lowly Chicago Formerly-Red-Formerly-Decent Stars as a sacrificial offering to enjoy before taking a whole fucking month off.

To say “nobody actually enjoyed that very much” would be putting it mildly.

Even without Lorne Donaldson Chicago is still a huge unmoving slorg of defensive crouching. Their one bright attacking light, Ludmila, was out last weekend on concussion protocol. So the task facing Portland and Rob Gale was “how do you break down this uglass block?” and for an entire half the coach and squad beat themselves up trying to do that.

On the management side Ken set the squad out in a 4-4-2 diamond-ish sort of formation and tried to work the ball around. The initial plan looked like using Pietra Tordin as a sort of wide-CF and Reilyn Turner as a true #9 with Olivia Moultrie at the point of the diamond to provide service and shoot from distance.

On the pitch? It…sorta just didn’t work that well. Moultrie had a go from the top of the penalty arch that rang off the post, and she, Jessie Fleming, and Hina Sugita all blasted wide or high.

On the other end Ally Schlegel was being a nuisance finding space to feed Julia Grosso and Shea Groom, but without Ludmila Chicago couldn’t find much of anything, either.

At the half OPTA had the Thorns with 0.22 xG, Chicago with 0.24 xG and the match, unsurprisingly, scoreless.

(FBRef was a trifle kinder; Portland 0.27xG but 0.0 post-shot xG, Chicago 0.15xG, but 0.49 PSxG off a close range Sam Staab header in the 15th minute).

Here’s the table at halftime:

Ken sent the gang out after the break back in their familiar 4-3-3, but more to the point the squad started playing vertically, sending in lead passes to the runners getting in behind.

That took a while to work out, but in the 59th minute the Thorns broke through when Reina Reyes found Hina-san open for a lead pass. Note that Chicago’s backline is all in pieces; clumped in the middle whilst Tordin is open wide right and Sam Coffey open close on the left, with Staab keeping everyone onside;

Hina-san played one-touch straight forward for Sam Coffey to run free on goal. Where’s everyone in blue looking? Yep.

Everyone had to collapse to Coffey, and at this point Turner made herself felt with a central run that drew three defenders;

Leaving Tordin completely unmarked to roof Coffey’s pretty cross for the matchwinner.

One-nil. Lights out, right?

But.

Anyone but Chicago still might have nicked a road point. Despite putting up 0.47xG after the goal the Thorns had nothing better than a 71st minute Peyton Linnehan crossbar, post-shot xG 0.17.

The Notred Stars? An xG of 0.17…but a PSxG of 0.52, off a Natalia Kuikka deflected strike in the 57th minute that Bella Bixby had to get down well to save.

The Good?

Three points. Ken recognizing that the diamond wasn’t working and making changes. The players adapting to and implementing the changes to attack more directly, more vertically, and more effectively. Making the chances count when we needed to. Bixby coming up big when we needed her to be.

The Not-so-good?

Failing to put the sword to a poor opponent. Playing down to that opponent, especially after the excellent work against Washington. Ending up with only an xG of 1.0 when Chicago – without Ludmila! – worked 0.9. The reality that we didn’t think we had a replacement for Caiya Hanks pacey attack on the wing, and no, we don’t.

The Standings?

That’s not bad.

In fact, that’s pretty damn good. Had San Diego beaten them we’d have lapped Washington on goal difference. Now the challenge is to keep the squad on point for over a month until we play again.

Ken? Sam? You up for that?

Short Passes

Per OPTA the possession was dead even, 50/50.

But here’s Sofascore’s “momentum” plot:

The first half is all Portland, but as we saw, the chances weren’t coming.

After the break it’s lots of Chicago blue, but look at the length of the bars. Flat, meaning that for all that the Notred Stars weren’t really that dangerous. Here’s Chris Henderson’s xG plot to point that out:

Brutal.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei’s version:

I can’t really argue with that. We’ve seen this before from Portland; making chances, not finishing them. Ouch.

Here’s the passing: first Portland:

The spacing is better, so there’s that. And some of the usual suspects – Reyes, Sugita, Moultrie – were passing effectively. But Coffey was pretty meh (despite the crucial cross) and Fleming was downright ugly.

One thing that bugs me is that Sam Hiatt has become This Season’s Hubly; when the Thorns play out of the back it goes Bixby-to-Hiatt-then-upfield. Which means that Hiatt needs to be diming people, and that yellow circle? Means she wasn’t.

Here’s Chicago:

But look at her targets; Bike, Groom and Grosso were all crap receiving, so that’s a big reason why Schlegel couldn’t “create a ton of danger” and I’m fine with that.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent (Result) – 2025Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)38
Angel City – Home (D)38
North Carolina – Home (D)32
Utah – Away (W)25
Seattle – Away (L)34
Gotham – Home (W)26
Louisville – Home (D)16
Orlando – Home (W)18
San Diego – Away (D)32
Houston – Away (W)21
Bay FC – Away (L)No data
Washington – Home (W)16
Chicago – Home (W)22

Good. Not as great as against Washington, but then Chicago was coughing up 24, so like the rest of this one good enough for Chicago. Portland with 10 turnovers before the break, 12 after, while Chicago coughed up 14 before, 10 after, so pretty even.

Kaitlyn Torpey was the Biggest Loser with four. Moultrie and Hiatt both coughed up three, and three players lost two each.

Several looked scary. Hiatt’s 30th minute short leg was turned back in her own half, and both Fleming and Reyes turned over on the wrong side of the midfield stripe. But Chicago, so nothing came of any of them. Sometimes it’s okay to just be lucky.

Press!

Ninth match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”. If two players were involved in a press each received a half mark (for attempts) and a half credit for successes.

Compared to the previous match the Thorns took the fucking day off, and Chicago sat deep, so kinda the same effect.

Both sides came out swinging, the Thorns the better of the opening fifteen minutes but then both dropped off sharply for the rest of the match until the final quarter hour.

Match timeStars presses (wins)(%)Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′11(6) (54.5%)14(12) (85.7%)
15-30′4(3) (75%)7(5) (71.4%)
30-45+2′5(5) (100%)6(4) (66.6%)
First half21(14) (66.6%)27(22) (81.4%)
45-60′5(4) (80%)6(2) (33.3%)
60-75′4(2) (50%)8(2) (25%)
75-90+5′1(1) (100%)13(8) (33.3%)
Second half10(7) (70%)24(17) (61.5%)
Match Total31(21) (67.7%)51(39) (76.4%)

My thoughts:
1) Neither side pressed well.
2) In particular the Thorns, having undone Washington with a viciously relentless press, just sort of loafed around after the quarter hour…until the final fifteen minutes or so.
3) When they then tried to press to protect the one-goal lead Washington easily passed out of the pressure, so poorly done when it could have hurt them badly.
4) Fleming, Coffey, and Moultrie were the big pressers again, but with sharply different results. Moultrie did well (7 presses/5 wins) and Coffey won six of nine (9/6) but Fleming lost more than she won (11/5). Nobody else stood out other than Hiatt (5/4).
5) On the receiving end Chicago was surprisingly efficient when they did press. Fleming got hammered, losing 6 of 7. Turner lost all 3, and Torpey 3 of 4.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)Opponent Press (Success)Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)28/12 (42.8%)27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)32/23 (71.8%)21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)28/20 (71.4%)19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)34/25 (73.5%)14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)28/17 (60.7%)43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)18/18 (100%)100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)27/17 (62.9%)42/23 (54.7%)
Bay FC Away (L)No dataNo data
Washington Home (W)31(15) (48.3%)61(48) (78.6%)
Chicago Home (W)31(21) (67.7%)51(39) (76.4%)

Onward, Rose City.

Corner Kicks

One, long, second half

TimeTakerShort/Long?Result
84′MoultrieLongOnto Reyes head; her 0.09xG header was blocked and cleared.

What did I say last week? “Not bad as ideas, but this club still lacks a real dead ball/corner kick assassin”?

Yep.

Player Ratings and Comments

Tordin (65′ – +2/-1 : +3/-1 :+5/-2) Tidily potted goal, but…the problem is that Tordin and Turner do much the same things and neither of them are really “winger”. But when Ken pulled Tordin for a true winger (Linnehan) by then he’d had stopped trying to play wide and cross in but up the gut instead, so Linnehan had to sort of freelance.

Linnehan (25′ – +8/-3) And she did it, pretty well! Lots of good activity, including dangerous attacks in the 65th, 71st, 72nd, 87th, and 94th minutes, marred by some iffy shooting after the crossbar. Still, fine shift overall in a tactical scheme that didn’t fit her.

Turner (75′ – +6/-1 : +2/-1 : +8/-2) Lacked bite. We mentioned the nice run on the Tordin goal, but other than an 8th minute attack that was well defended not much dangerous creation. I think a lot of that was struggling with Ken’s diamond and then the adjustment back to the 4-3-3 and more direct play.

Spaanstra (15′ – +3/-0) Good shift; nice turnover creation in the 89th minute and lead pass but just a skitch too far for Mimi Alidou to put the match away.

Moultrie (88′ – +8/-2 : +10/-0 : +18/-2) Led the team (by a ton) in shot-creating actions and progressive carries. Close to the opening goal by half a post, as well as the best of the press, and all around danger woman. My pick for Woman of the Match (tho we’ll talk about Coffey).

Castellanos (2′ – no rating) So much for Reina Deyna; two minutes of garbage time? That’s just sad, and an indictment of the process that brought her here.

Fleming (88′ – +7/-1 : +6/-2 : +13/-3) Well played overall, yet…lacked something she showed against Washington. Not sure why. Still on a run of extremely effective form, so not really an issue. But I’d love to see her more incisive in the attack.

Alidou (2′ – no rating)

Coffey (+7/-2 : +9/-0 +16/-2) All the usual pluses we expect, plus the killing stroke combining run and cross in the 59th minute.

You could make a case for her as WotM (and an even stronger case for Sugita) based purely on PMR, but my thought is that Chicago was so defensive that the two midfielders didn’t have to do much of their usual work behind the ball, while Moultrie was tasked with banging her head against the Chicago wall over and over again, and did successfully. Still; I wouldn’t fight either of the two as Queen for the Day.

Sugita (+8/-2 : +16/-2 : +24/-4) Monster second half. What can you say? At this point what more does she have to do to get her name up in the Ring of Honor?

Reyes (+2/-0 : +5/-0 : +7/-0) The backline wasn’t really challenged, so the numbers are fairly modest, but Reyes again did good work on both sides of the ball; Ken plays her more like a wingback, and she does it well.

Obaze (+1/-2 : +5/-0 : +6/-2) Same note as Reyes; good enough.

Hiatt (+5/-1 : +1/-1 : +6/-2) Same note as Obaze.

Torpey (75′ – +4/-2 : +0/-0 : +4/-2) Same note as Hiatt.

McKenzie (15′ – +1/-1) Same note as…aw, the hell with it.

Bixby (+5/-0 : +4/-0 : +9/-0) Surprisingly high numbers for a keeper in a virtually untroubled match. The 57th minute save we mention, plus strong takes in the air in the 44th, 56th, and 64th minutes.

I’m not going to go through the whole “Bixby vs Arnold” thing again, except to note that Bix has finally moved into positive numbers on the “goals prevented” list.

That’s still not “top of the league” stuff – Moorhouse has that locked up – but it’s a good sign that Bix has been solid and better, and is a perfectly fine starting keeper.

Coach Ken: The fact is that this guy has the team, missing a generational star like Sophia Wilson and outstanding regulars like Morgan Weaver and Marie Muller, in fifth and within fingers-distance of the top four.

Does that mean I think he needs to be the coach of England or the USWNT? Ohhellno; dude still makes some real headscratching decisions, and his club is still kind of all over the place from one matchday to the next.

But in general he’s done better than I expected this season. I think he’s going to be here next year unless the post-July results absolutely crater.

Now his challenge is to keep heads pointing forward during a month-long break, and return in August with a whole can of whup-ass open for a Washington Spirit that’s gonna want the worst kind of revenge.

But for now?

Let’s dance and be happy!

John Lawes

13 thoughts on “Thorns FC: Good Enough for Government Work

  1. Yeah not a good game, but three points is three points. Yes Sugita is wonderful. Sometimes when I am bored I look up the YouTubes of her game in the 2019 SBC where she was matched up with Julie Ertz, Megan Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and especially Tobin Heath. That game must have got Portlands attention because she played so well against some of the best.
    Hina will always be in my Ring of Honor.
    Very glad the Nadeshiko Coach is calling her up. The fact that her English might be among the best on the team and her maturity and calm on the field is such a bonus for Nielson, the first foreign born coach of the Nadeshiko.

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    1. I’m conflicted about this one.

      The first half was ug-lee. Just forty-five minutes of utter futility; Chicago packing the back and Portland banging their heads against that blue wall. Awful lack of intensity after the Washington game. Terrible finishing.

      But the second half was…better. Still lots of crap finishing. But Portland figuring the Stars (what an awful name! especially for this less-than-stellar outfit!) out and Chicago getting some looks, too. Nothing like the best work we saw weekend before last…but better. And showing that both Ken and his squad could make corrections mid-match, which we haven’t seen a lot of.

      I’ll be curious to see where Hina-san lines up with the Nadeshiko. Ikeda often played her – when he DID play her – as a LB, which seems nuts, but given the level of individual talent on that squad, well…nah. That’s still nuts.

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  2. The team simply plays to the level of the opponent. I can give Gale the benefit of the doubt in this game as Hanks was out and he tried something new, with little to no time to really work on the implementation of a 4-4-2. But the narrative shifts when we look back on the body of the work. I’m with you on the likelihood of Gale being here next year, which would be frustrating for those of us fans) who are looking for the team to be great. But the team seems to like him, and has the talent to get by so its unlikely the team will fall apart in the second half of the season.

    I keep hoping that he is learning, and I appreciate the effort to shift to a 4-4-2 when he lost the only starting quality winger on the team. I will say I hope they work on the formation in practice because while I like Linnehan, she is a rotational player who should get spot starts. Getting both Tordin and Turner on the field should work on paper, as should getting four midfielders out there.

    The second half of the season should be interesting, in that the team has a chance to fight for a home playoff game. I’ll take growth as a good sign.

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    1. The big question to me is “who?” If not Ken..? Who’s out there looking to coach this squad, who’s good enough to be a serious upgrade on Ken, who’s available and reasonably-priced? I have no idea.

      But that’s what the GM is for. Hopefully Agoos is thinking about this. If Ken gets this squad deep into the playoffs, though? I don’t see how the club can 86 him for next season. And like many of us, I’m not convinced the guy has the smarts.

      But for now? He’s the gaffer, so we’ll see what happens in August.

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      1. I am eating a bit of crow, as I didn’t think we would be near the playoff line at the beginning of the season. The question is, is Ken a better coach than we thought or have his players bailed him out? I thought Chicago played a lot better than expected and Portland a lot worse. Absent a moment of brilliance from Coffey and Tordin, not a great game against a bottom dwelling team. A 0-0 result and again we are talking about inconsistency as the theme of 2025.
        If indeed the FO does have faith in Ken, will they show it with some xfer window signings?

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        1. Putting up an xG of 0.38 isn’t really “playing better”. That was kind of my problem with this; Chicago was crap, all they could do was play “not to lose”.

          It reminded me of the sorts of games that the international minnows like North Korea used to run out against the USWNT; just bunker and hope Abby Wambach didn’t head in the winner.

          That’s on Chicago’s owners, who have let their roster go to hell.

          But the thing was that Ken knew Ludmila was out, so he had to know that his whole job was to figure out how to break Chicago’s defense down, and spent a whole half figuring that out…but in the end, he sorta did. You can call it individual skill, but it was an actual tactical plan to start playing vertically, and it worked.

          (And FWIW, as much as it was a nice finish the best work on that play came from Reyes, Hina, and Coffey. They set the table and cooked the meal; all Tordin had to do was feast…)

          The problem with signings being…who? The big problem is injuries; Muller at RB, Weaver and now Hanks at LW, Wilson on ML at CF. There’s no real urgency to sign big names at CB, DM, or AM.

          But injuries heal…meaning anyone who is signed during the summer window to fill in at RB, LW, or CF has to know they’re gone come April 2026 when all those regulars return.

          What impact player would sign a contract like that? And what could the FO offer them to do so?

          It’d be nice. But I’m really not sure how it could be made to work.

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          1. I think we could still use a top-shelf center back. Our current crop are good but not great, and a standout player could help both this year and into the future. Perry might become great some day but you never know how people will develop.

            We have no idea how much money Agoos has available to spend. You’d think that the retirement of Sinclair, Sauerbrunn, and Kling would free up a lot of salary cap space, but retaining Wilson is going to cost a lot and we have no idea of the balance there. Also unknown: how many actual dollars the new owners are willing to lay out. Like, do they think the new training center is enough of a spend that they don’t want to drop any more money on the team? Who knows?

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            1. I wouldn’t say no outright, but my question would then be “okay…who?” I don’t know enough about both the RAJ organization’s finances (and you’re spot-on that there’s got to be a lot of $$$ tied up in the WNBA rollout and the training center) or the state of the transfer market to have any real sense of whether there’s someone(s) out there gettable for what RAJ can afford.

              IOW, if we get nobody, it might not be because the FO disagrees with your assessment (or agrees with me) and didn’t try but because there just wasn’t anyone interested for what the FO could offer.

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      2. At this point we are going to have to wait until the end of the season. The reality is that this team could coalesce and turn into a solid squad, or it could continue playing inconsistent ball and stagger into the bottom half of playoff teams.

        The talent suggests that we could turn into a solid team, with possibly the most talented group of midfielders in the NWSL. Add to that a pair of solid strikers who have a nose for the goal and we have the makings of a team that can make some noise going forward. If that happens, Gale does deserve some credit for pulling the team together after this spate of injuries and missing the teams best individual player.

        The reason to think they will continue to be inconsistent is that the team has been inconsistent ever since the beginning of last year. Add into that the loss of the only real game changer (Hanks) and the question becomes where does the offense come from? As talented as the midfield is, it hasn’t turned into the dominant force we have been expecting since 2024.

        We will have to see how the season plays out, and what the FO thinks this team could have been at the end of the season. I’m hopeful that the expectation is that this team should be a playoff lock, and anything less than a home game in the playoffs would be a disappointment.

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  3. Too much credit to Gale. The team is still rudderless. A good outing cancelled out by a poor showing against a last place team. Gale can play with all the formations he wants, but the players will still play undisciplined, freelance football. Not all of that is on Gale. Some of it is on the players. I’ll go as far to say the players dictate tactics. No wonder they like him so much.

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    1. The problem is that for all that I won’t disagree…he’s getting results. It’s hard for the FO to disregard that, either.

      I honestly doubt that there’s some sort of “soft coup” going on. I don’t see anything on the field that suggests there’s some sort of “field general(s)” doing the tactical work. I know I keep banging this drum, but…I can’t stop wondering what the hell Ken’s practices are like. The “undisciplined freelancing” seems to me to likely be a product of sketchy, grab-ass training. Compare it to, say, the way Japanese players all seem to come up in very structured regimes where they learn to the quick, deft, one-touch-move-to-space system that characterizes so many Japanese sides.

      I think the mess begins in training…but I have no way to prove that, so…

      And I do think Ken is the “vibes” guy. He’s the happy encouraging spirited booster that has a good word for everyone; every interview I read from the players emphasize that and how that’s why they like him so much. Maybe the same sort of thing leads to the sloppy training…but, again, I have no way of knowing.

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      1. I’m curious for more reasons than one how the Thorns do toward the end of the season. I have this idea that some coaches are “seasonal”, in that they do well and poorly at different times of the season. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, for instance, seem to do well early in the season but then fall apart toward the end, while Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid has often done better toward the end of the season (hence all the Champions League victories). Last year the Thorns did well from when Gale took over up until early July. Are Gale’s Thorns an early-season wonder, and we’ll crater as the season goes on like we did last year? Enquiring minds want to know.

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        1. That’s one possibility, and I agree; we’ll need to keep an eye on that.

          The other is that the Thorns six-match winning run in hindsight now looks like 1) a “dead-cat” bounce that hugely profited from 2) a grossly fortuitous schedule; of those wins five were tomato cans. Washington was the only really “good win” in that stretch. Once the schedule stopped giving Ken any slack his squad augered in.

          So, in that sense, this season to date has been an order or magnitude better that, I think, was initially obscured by the horrible KCC Opening Day loss followed by the struggles in March.

          But by April? Yeah, lost to Fucking Seattle, but the walloped Gotham, fought out a tough draw w Louisville, edged Orlando, nicked a point in San Diego, and Beat Washington. The Bay FC loss was bad, and Chicago was pretty ugly-meh…but in general? WAY better than the playoff run-in last season.

          So my real question is “Is our Ken learning?” He seems to be…but I’m not sure we have the full data set.

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