Thorns FC: Good Enough for Government Work

Just a week after laying a total beatdown on top-four club Washington the Thorns got a gift from the Gods of NWSL Scheduling; a visit from the lowly Chicago Formerly-Red-Formerly-Decent Stars as a sacrificial offering to enjoy before taking a whole fucking month off.

To say “nobody actually enjoyed that very much” would be putting it mildly.

Even without Lorne Donaldson Chicago is still a huge unmoving slorg of defensive crouching. Their one bright attacking light, Ludmila, was out last weekend on concussion protocol. So the task facing Portland and Rob Gale was “how do you break down this uglass block?” and for an entire half the coach and squad beat themselves up trying to do that.

On the management side Ken set the squad out in a 4-4-2 diamond-ish sort of formation and tried to work the ball around. The initial plan looked like using Pietra Tordin as a sort of wide-CF and Reilyn Turner as a true #9 with Olivia Moultrie at the point of the diamond to provide service and shoot from distance.

On the pitch? It…sorta just didn’t work that well. Moultrie had a go from the top of the penalty arch that rang off the post, and she, Jessie Fleming, and Hina Sugita all blasted wide or high.

On the other end Ally Schlegel was being a nuisance finding space to feed Julia Grosso and Shea Groom, but without Ludmila Chicago couldn’t find much of anything, either.

At the half OPTA had the Thorns with 0.22 xG, Chicago with 0.24 xG and the match, unsurprisingly, scoreless.

(FBRef was a trifle kinder; Portland 0.27xG but 0.0 post-shot xG, Chicago 0.15xG, but 0.49 PSxG off a close range Sam Staab header in the 15th minute).

Here’s the table at halftime:

Ken sent the gang out after the break back in their familiar 4-3-3, but more to the point the squad started playing vertically, sending in lead passes to the runners getting in behind.

That took a while to work out, but in the 59th minute the Thorns broke through when Reina Reyes found Hina-san open for a lead pass. Note that Chicago’s backline is all in pieces; clumped in the middle whilst Tordin is open wide right and Sam Coffey open close on the left, with Staab keeping everyone onside;

Hina-san played one-touch straight forward for Sam Coffey to run free on goal. Where’s everyone in blue looking? Yep.

Everyone had to collapse to Coffey, and at this point Turner made herself felt with a central run that drew three defenders;

Leaving Tordin completely unmarked to roof Coffey’s pretty cross for the matchwinner.

One-nil. Lights out, right?

But.

Anyone but Chicago still might have nicked a road point. Despite putting up 0.47xG after the goal the Thorns had nothing better than a 71st minute Peyton Linnehan crossbar, post-shot xG 0.17.

The Notred Stars? An xG of 0.17…but a PSxG of 0.52, off a Natalia Kuikka deflected strike in the 57th minute that Bella Bixby had to get down well to save.

The Good?

Three points. Ken recognizing that the diamond wasn’t working and making changes. The players adapting to and implementing the changes to attack more directly, more vertically, and more effectively. Making the chances count when we needed to. Bixby coming up big when we needed her to be.

The Not-so-good?

Failing to put the sword to a poor opponent. Playing down to that opponent, especially after the excellent work against Washington. Ending up with only an xG of 1.0 when Chicago – without Ludmila! – worked 0.9. The reality that we didn’t think we had a replacement for Caiya Hanks pacey attack on the wing, and no, we don’t.

The Standings?

That’s not bad.

In fact, that’s pretty damn good. Had San Diego beaten them we’d have lapped Washington on goal difference. Now the challenge is to keep the squad on point for over a month until we play again.

Ken? Sam? You up for that?

Short Passes

Per OPTA the possession was dead even, 50/50.

But here’s Sofascore’s “momentum” plot:

The first half is all Portland, but as we saw, the chances weren’t coming.

After the break it’s lots of Chicago blue, but look at the length of the bars. Flat, meaning that for all that the Notred Stars weren’t really that dangerous. Here’s Chris Henderson’s xG plot to point that out:

Brutal.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei’s version:

I can’t really argue with that. We’ve seen this before from Portland; making chances, not finishing them. Ouch.

Here’s the passing: first Portland:

The spacing is better, so there’s that. And some of the usual suspects – Reyes, Sugita, Moultrie – were passing effectively. But Coffey was pretty meh (despite the crucial cross) and Fleming was downright ugly.

One thing that bugs me is that Sam Hiatt has become This Season’s Hubly; when the Thorns play out of the back it goes Bixby-to-Hiatt-then-upfield. Which means that Hiatt needs to be diming people, and that yellow circle? Means she wasn’t.

Here’s Chicago:

But look at her targets; Bike, Groom and Grosso were all crap receiving, so that’s a big reason why Schlegel couldn’t “create a ton of danger” and I’m fine with that.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent (Result) – 2025	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16
Orlando – Home (W)	18
San Diego – Away (D)	32
Houston – Away (W)	21
Bay FC – Away (L)	No data
Washington – Home (W)	16
Chicago – Home (W)	22

Good. Not as great as against Washington, but then Chicago was coughing up 24, so like the rest of this one good enough for Chicago. Portland with 10 turnovers before the break, 12 after, while Chicago coughed up 14 before, 10 after, so pretty even.

Kaitlyn Torpey was the Biggest Loser with four. Moultrie and Hiatt both coughed up three, and three players lost two each.

Several looked scary. Hiatt’s 30th minute short leg was turned back in her own half, and both Fleming and Reyes turned over on the wrong side of the midfield stripe. But Chicago, so nothing came of any of them. Sometimes it’s okay to just be lucky.

Press!

Ninth match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”. If two players were involved in a press each received a half mark (for attempts) and a half credit for successes.

Compared to the previous match the Thorns took the fucking day off, and Chicago sat deep, so kinda the same effect.

Both sides came out swinging, the Thorns the better of the opening fifteen minutes but then both dropped off sharply for the rest of the match until the final quarter hour.

Match time	Stars presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	11(6) (54.5%)	14(12) (85.7%)
15-30′	4(3) (75%)	7(5) (71.4%)
30-45+2′	5(5) (100%)	6(4) (66.6%)
First half	21(14) (66.6%)	27(22) (81.4%)
45-60′	5(4) (80%)	6(2) (33.3%)
60-75′	4(2) (50%)	8(2) (25%)
75-90+5′	1(1) (100%)	13(8) (33.3%)
Second half	10(7) (70%)	24(17) (61.5%)
Match Total	31(21) (67.7%)	51(39) (76.4%)

My thoughts:
1) Neither side pressed well.
2) In particular the Thorns, having undone Washington with a viciously relentless press, just sort of loafed around after the quarter hour…until the final fifteen minutes or so.
3) When they then tried to press to protect the one-goal lead Washington easily passed out of the pressure, so poorly done when it could have hurt them badly.
4) Fleming, Coffey, and Moultrie were the big pressers again, but with sharply different results. Moultrie did well (7 presses/5 wins) and Coffey won six of nine (9/6) but Fleming lost more than she won (11/5). Nobody else stood out other than Hiatt (5/4).
5) On the receiving end Chicago was surprisingly efficient when they did press. Fleming got hammered, losing 6 of 7. Turner lost all 3, and Torpey 3 of 4.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28/20 (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)	28/17 (60.7%)	43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)	18/18 (100%)	100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)	27/17 (62.9%)	42/23 (54.7%)
Bay FC Away (L)	No data	No data
Washington Home (W)	31(15) (48.3%)	61(48) (78.6%)
Chicago Home (W)	31(21) (67.7%)	51(39) (76.4%)

Onward, Rose City.

Corner Kicks

One, long, second half

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
84′	Moultrie	Long	Onto Reyes head; her 0.09xG header was blocked and cleared.

What did I say last week? “Not bad as ideas, but this club still lacks a real dead ball/corner kick assassin”?

Yep.

Player Ratings and Comments

Tordin (65′ – +2/-1 : +3/-1 :+5/-2) Tidily potted goal, but…the problem is that Tordin and Turner do much the same things and neither of them are really “winger”. But when Ken pulled Tordin for a true winger (Linnehan) by then he’d had stopped trying to play wide and cross in but up the gut instead, so Linnehan had to sort of freelance.

Linnehan (25′ – +8/-3) And she did it, pretty well! Lots of good activity, including dangerous attacks in the 65th, 71st, 72nd, 87th, and 94th minutes, marred by some iffy shooting after the crossbar. Still, fine shift overall in a tactical scheme that didn’t fit her.

Turner (75′ – +6/-1 : +2/-1 : +8/-2) Lacked bite. We mentioned the nice run on the Tordin goal, but other than an 8th minute attack that was well defended not much dangerous creation. I think a lot of that was struggling with Ken’s diamond and then the adjustment back to the 4-3-3 and more direct play.

Spaanstra (15′ – +3/-0) Good shift; nice turnover creation in the 89th minute and lead pass but just a skitch too far for Mimi Alidou to put the match away.

Moultrie (88′ – +8/-2 : +10/-0 : +18/-2) Led the team (by a ton) in shot-creating actions and progressive carries. Close to the opening goal by half a post, as well as the best of the press, and all around danger woman. My pick for Woman of the Match (tho we’ll talk about Coffey).

Castellanos (2′ – no rating) So much for Reina Deyna; two minutes of garbage time? That’s just sad, and an indictment of the process that brought her here.

Fleming (88′ – +7/-1 : +6/-2 : +13/-3) Well played overall, yet…lacked something she showed against Washington. Not sure why. Still on a run of extremely effective form, so not really an issue. But I’d love to see her more incisive in the attack.

Alidou (2′ – no rating)

Coffey (+7/-2 : +9/-0 +16/-2) All the usual pluses we expect, plus the killing stroke combining run and cross in the 59th minute.

You could make a case for her as WotM (and an even stronger case for Sugita) based purely on PMR, but my thought is that Chicago was so defensive that the two midfielders didn’t have to do much of their usual work behind the ball, while Moultrie was tasked with banging her head against the Chicago wall over and over again, and did successfully. Still; I wouldn’t fight either of the two as Queen for the Day.

Sugita (+8/-2 : +16/-2 : +24/-4) Monster second half. What can you say? At this point what more does she have to do to get her name up in the Ring of Honor?

Reyes (+2/-0 : +5/-0 : +7/-0) The backline wasn’t really challenged, so the numbers are fairly modest, but Reyes again did good work on both sides of the ball; Ken plays her more like a wingback, and she does it well.

Obaze (+1/-2 : +5/-0 : +6/-2) Same note as Reyes; good enough.

Hiatt (+5/-1 : +1/-1 : +6/-2) Same note as Obaze.

Torpey (75′ – +4/-2 : +0/-0 : +4/-2) Same note as Hiatt.

McKenzie (15′ – +1/-1) Same note as…aw, the hell with it.

Bixby (+5/-0 : +4/-0 : +9/-0) Surprisingly high numbers for a keeper in a virtually untroubled match. The 57th minute save we mention, plus strong takes in the air in the 44th, 56th, and 64th minutes.

I’m not going to go through the whole “Bixby vs Arnold” thing again, except to note that Bix has finally moved into positive numbers on the “goals prevented” list.

That’s still not “top of the league” stuff – Moorhouse has that locked up – but it’s a good sign that Bix has been solid and better, and is a perfectly fine starting keeper.

Coach Ken: The fact is that this guy has the team, missing a generational star like Sophia Wilson and outstanding regulars like Morgan Weaver and Marie Muller, in fifth and within fingers-distance of the top four.

Does that mean I think he needs to be the coach of England or the USWNT? Ohhellno; dude still makes some real headscratching decisions, and his club is still kind of all over the place from one matchday to the next.

But in general he’s done better than I expected this season. I think he’s going to be here next year unless the post-July results absolutely crater.

Now his challenge is to keep heads pointing forward during a month-long break, and return in August with a whole can of whup-ass open for a Washington Spirit that’s gonna want the worst kind of revenge.

But for now?

Let’s dance and be happy!