Thorns FC: Houston Wild Wings

Sometimes otherwise routine events produce unforeseen consequences.

Last weekend the “routine event” was this week’s long-awaited Women’s CONCACAF semifinal, and the consequences were this:

I know, right? Who’d imagine a KenBall XI that featured an actual center forward playing as a center forward, two actual wingers with actual winger skillsets playing winger, and an ACM/#10 with experience pulling midfield strings playing ACM?

So midweek fixture = heavy rotation = results?

Amaaaaaazing! It’s almost like soccer fucking works that way.

So a number of things can be true.

This was a good, solid team win, one that owed a hell of a lot to a nice combination of individual effort, Thorns team cohesion, and, yes, coaching/matchday management…

This also might have been a one-off forced by an upcoming heavy mid-week schedule, and…

It was helped a lot by a Houston club which, while not the worst team in the league, sure had an epically awful day last Friday.

Up front, take away the 60th minute Messiah Bright 4-yard blast (that’s the big 0.8xG orange riser) the Dash created jack and shit, something like 0.25xG.

Henderson’s post-shot xG numbers are even worse; Bright’s 0.75xG leaves her teammates with less then 0.2…

…and FBRef? Worse still, believe it or not;

And in back? Houston turned the ball over like a soccer ball gatchupon dispenser and gave Portland tons of space and time to turn those into goals.

Some of this was Portland defending well most of the match. Some was Portland jumping out to a three goal lead by halftime and four within the hour. And some was Houston have a reeeeally crap outing.

How much was smart Kencoaching?

As always with this club, we need to watch and see what happens.

To me, this game was a massive indicator that Ken has been starting the wrong people up front in a narrow wingless attack that is easily stymied.

When he has had a striker like Pietra Tordin available at the #9, wingers like Caiya Hanks and Payton Linnehan available as, well, wingers, and a #10 like Mimi Alidou available?

Why try to bash Olivia Moultrie as a winger or file to hide Deyna Castellanos as a striker, or paint to cover all the above? Why not just start Tordin and Hanks and Alidou along with no-brainers like Sam Coffey and Hina Sugita?

And when there are actual wingers, why not play them like that, adding width to the attack, spreading the defense, and thus making space for the center forward?

You’d think this would at least give Ken pause to consider doing all that?

But will he? After the club finishes it’s vacation in Mexico? That’s what we need to wait and see.

Short Passes

Portland had a bit less possession (48-52%) but a lot of that was going up by four and then sitting in; Sofascore’s “momentum” plot shows that pretty clearly:

Passing was similar overall, too (79% of 416 passes completed for Portland, 80% of 456 for Houston) but as we’ll see, Houston tended to cough turnovers at the worst possible times.

Here’s Carlisle-sensei’s passing plots. First Portland:

The same oddball Ken-jam in the center circle, though I’d note that the wide players were wide, especially the wingers, which isn’t always or often true and, when they aren’t, tends to be a KenBall problem.

So yes, clogging the middle helped Gautrat’s “plan” ram itself into the mangle. But there was actual width to the attack, which is both not usual, and good.

Here’s Houston:

Again, it wasn’t finishing. Down four goals meant that the Dash needed to create, too, and they just couldn’t. Plus turnovers. And, yes, finishing. This was a pretty comprehensive Houston fail, not just a Portland success.

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent (Result) – 2025	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34
Gotham – Home (W)	26
Louisville – Home (D)	16
Orlando – Home (W)	18
San Diego – Away (D)	32
Houston – Away (W)	21

Not quite as tidy as Louisville or Orlando, but much, much better than San Diego and well under the to-date turnover average. Nine first half, 12 in the second…and Houston was dire; 36 turnovers divided into 20 before the break, 16 after.

Portland didn’t have too many repeat turnover-offenders. Several of Bella Bixby’s outlets were her usual clunkers, including four pure giveaways; for all I’m not a hater she really doesn’t get the ball out of the back all that well. Kaitlyn Torpey coughed up three, and four players lost two each.

Houston was unable to get much of anything out of them; the only hairball that was even close was a Sam Hiatt turnover pass in the 8th minute but a fine Mallie McKenzie defensive run tackled the ball of Bright’s foot to end the danger.

Press!

Seventh match tracking the effect of each side’s press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Overall, fairly modest efforts from both sides. Portland was generally more active early but then didn’t need to press and sat up. Houston tried a bit, was just bad at it (and Portland good at passing out of the slow, clumsy Houston press), and then as often as not didn’t even try.

Match time	Dash presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	5(2) (40%)	13(9) (69.2%)
15-30′	4(2) (50%)	4(1) (25%)
30-45+4′	1(1) (100%)	8(4) (50%)
First half	10(5) (50%)	25(14) (56%)
45-60′	6(4) (66.6%)	13(7) (53.8%)
60-75′	6(6) (100%)	4(2) (50%)
75-90+5′	5(2) (40%)	0 (0%)
Second half	17(12) (70.5%)	17(9) (52.9%)
Match Total	27(17) (62.9%)	42(23) (54.7%)

My thoughts:
1) Not sure if there’s anything to see here.
2) Some of that was that Houston coughed up the ball a lot without any pressure at all. Why rob someone with violence when they’ve already dropped their wallet and wandered away?
3) Portland got the result they needed from a fairly modest press.
4) Tordin and Hanks did hard work forechecking; Tordin with six attempts (five successful). Hanks with five (and four). Nobody else piled up big numbers, usually because the entire squad contributed, so lots of people with threes and twos and fours, here and there, but nothing really critical came of the gains except in the 26th minute, which we’ll discuss in the comments.
5) On the receiving end, kind of the same. Spaanstra got caught a lot given her limited minutes – three presses, three losses – and Alidou was pressed three times, losing two, but no one else more than twice, and nothing really dangerous came of the losses.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)
Gotham Home (W)	28/20 (71.4%)	19(15) (78.9%)
Louisville Home (D)	34/25 (73.5%)	14/8 (57.1%)
Orlando Home (W)	28/17 (60.7%)	43/24 (55.8%)
San Diego Away (D)	18/18 (100%)	100/36 (36%)
Houston Away (W)	27/17 (62.9%)	42/23 (54.7%)

More to come.

Corner Kicks

Two, but only one taken. First half, long.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
3′	Coffey	Long	Onto Reyes’ boot, but Reyes whiffed, and the ball was cleared.
90+6′	N/A	N/A	Thorns drove to the byline and Houston cleared over it for the corner, but the final whistle blew before it could be taken.

Enh. Nothin’.

Player Ratings and Comments

Linnehan (45′ – +8/-0) Lovely goal, good movement and crossing, helped immensely by her center forward Tordin’s pressure and holdup play and having Hanks as a left wing partner to help spread the Houston backline. Still looked dangerous at the half so my guess is the sub was to leave some gas in the tank for Mexico.

Fleming (45′ – +5/-0) Up by three Fleming had little to do going forward, but instead concentrated in helping deny Houston midfield, and did that well.

Tordin (76′ – +10/-0 : +4/-1 : +14/-1) Tough call, but I’d tap PT for Woman of the Match because I’m still swooning over this piece of pure art:

That’s sick. That’s just fucking filthy and I love it like a sunset or a fluffy kitten or a deep, passionate kiss.

Plus terrific holdup play. Plus outstanding distribution. Plus…well, you get it. I hope to Hell this made an impression on Ken. In the immortal words of Steely Dan; the party boys call the Kremlin. Are you listening, Ken Tovariche?

Castellanos (14′ – +3/-1) Some nice distribution, but didn’t need to do more than help keep the boot on Houston’s neck, did, so, fine. But the difference between her starts and Tordin’s in this one couldn’t be more brutal.

Hanks (63′ – +10/-3 : +9/-0 : +19/-3) Speaking of filthy…

Reina Reyes tackles for gain and feeds Hanks, who, purely and simply, runs all the way through Houston’s defense to the goal…

…spins Westphal like a tangerine-colored dreidel and arrogantly pots the winner past a helpless Abby Smith.

That’s goddamn magical. That’s a forward showing flat contempt for her opponent’s defending. I love to see that confident cockiness.

Spaanstra (27′ – +3/-1) Like Linnehan, I’m guessing this was to leave some miles on Hank’s legs. We’ve noted her tendency to get caught in possession, but also that it wasn’t really damaging, so, good enough to see out the win.

Alidou (+7/-2 : +3/-0 : +10/-2) Tidy assist on the Tordin goal, and otherwise did well to get into space to offer a linkup between the sixes and forwards, though her passing (see the plot above) could have been tidier. Her minuses are for appalling shooting; I’d give her the edge on Moultrie at this position other than that, because though Moultrie hasn’t been all that deadly this season she can be, and opponents have to respect that. Alidou starts putting those one frame, though..?

Sugita (63′ – +8/-0 : +1/-1: +9/-1) Used as a double pivot, and well, but that also tends to mute her attacking contributions, especially in the second half when the squad sat in. I’ll be curious to see how heavily Ken leans on her tomorrow.

Moultrie (27′ – +3/-1) It’s a kind of praise for how much better Livvy is doing tracking back that Ken thought of her as a defensive sub for Hina-san, and as such she did well. Ken still has the problem that he’s got too many people with “Moultrie-skills” (i.e. #10/ACM sort of skills), doesn’t really use a #10, and so can’t really find places for them. He seems to have a weird KenVision that sees Moultrie as a wide player, which she isn’t.

I wonder if it might be better for both the club and Moultrie for her to find a new home. If we’re not going to move on from Ken anytime soon – and games like this make it increasingly unlikely – I don’t see her flourishing here.

Coffey (63′ – +6/-3 : +1/-0 : +7/-3) Potted the spot kick, got the assist, bossed the midfield…anything else you needed, coach?

Didn’t think so. Thanks, and g’night.

Hirst (27′ – +1/-2) That said…the “problem” with Coffey is still that we don’t have another Coffey on the roster. Hirst is not a “bad” #6, per se, but she’s also not Big Sam Coffey, and that means that we struggle when Ken yanks both Sam and Hina-san, leaving Hirst to thrash about with only Moultrie to help her out. I’m not sure if there is a workaround, though, or what it could be.

McKenzie (+4/-1 : +4/-1 : +8/-2) Okay, so this is where I kinda vent, and not on McKenzie herself, who had a solid match, but on Ken and the squad defending.

Portland pretty much kept Houston underfoot, but there were moments. The 75th minute, when Spaanstra got caught in possession and stripped, leaving Sam Hiatt at the lack-of-mercy of Michelle Alozie was one.

Here’s another, with Reyes getting tackled-for-loss in the 50th minute.

Bright knocked the ball back to Maggie Graham, who had an open teammate to her left. Keep your eye on the top corner of your screen.

Graham squareed to (I think) Delanie Sheehan, who looked like a dead end, but Sheehan made a strong run that split Coffey and Sugita to find Danielle Colaprico running into space. Remember keeping your eyes up top there..?

…and that’s what Colaprico does, finding Ryan Gareis wide open because the whole Thorns squad has sucked into the near touchline.

That’s a problem, and a big part of that was that, in this case, it’s Kaitlyn Torpey who is way the hell out of position and Payton Linnehan is too far forward to help out.

Houston was too inept to profit from this sort of indiscipline, but Kansas City (or Orlando, or San Diego…) are not.

This is on the coaching. It’s the gaffer’s job to ensure everyone stays switched on all the time, up four goals or no. It’s a habit, a mindset. Look at Vlatko’s teams; they have it. Riley (spit!) had a similar effect. Those squads come to kill you from the opening whistle to the final seconds. They never stop. They never switch off.

Ken..?

So, again, McKenzie and the squad as a whole did fine in Houston. But stuff like this just reminds us that in them – in all of us – that slack-off moment is there, and it’s on them, and us, and those who lead us – and that’s you, Ken – to refuse to yield to that.

Hiatt (+3/-2 : +5/-1 : +8/-3) Same as above; solid 89 minutes with the occasional brainfart. If she and her backline can clean those up? This team could challenge for the star. Can they?

And I should add a note; one thing this squad does that drives me nuts is the seemingly lazy way they pass around the back, including both the keepers. They seem to invite pressure, then knock slow passes to each other that seem to offer an aggressive opponent a chance to nip in and turn the ball over within twenty yards of goal. Maybe the backline and keepers are so confident that they won’t be pickpocketed that they know something I don’t. But sure it looks scary to me and I’m always nervous when they do it.

Torpey (+5/-2 : +1/-1 : +6/-3) I’m still kind of nervous about the Other Australian, but in general Torps defended well, and her tackle for gain started the 26th minute attack that produced Tordin’s Shimmy Goal, so, nice! Keep this going!

Reyes (+3/-2 : +6/-2 : +9/-4) Same here, but added her usual pluses going forward.

Bixby (+1/-1 : +1/-1 : +2/-2) Thorns fandom seems to have developed a noticeable anti-Arnold faction that praises every Bixby outing without reserve, and I’ll admit that Bix did come up big on Bright’s 60th minute blast, as well as commanding her penalty area well in general.

But she has her issues. Arnold gets stick for unsure hands, but Bix still has issues with handling high balls and hard crosses; her reflex box-away of Gerais’ 41st minute cross was one because the cross looked extremely catchable. Her move off her line on the corner that followed her 60th minute save was slow and short but Houston’s shot went into the Gulf of Mexico.

IMO both keepers have strengths and weaknesses, but so far the metrics are strongly in Arnold’s favor. I get it; Bixby is a heartwarming story and Arnold is still hung with 2024 stank. But both are fairly bog-standard NWSL keepers, and given her numbers I don’t see how Bix can be considered anywhere near the preferred starting keeper at this point.

Coach Ken: What we discussed above still holds; if he’s learning from stuff like this game? Great!

But so far he’s taken a step back for every step forward, and while I’d love to think that the squad is going to roll over Bay FC in June like they did in Houston or against Orlando, well…like I said; we’ll see.

Tomorrow the Thorns play the Club de Fútbol Tigres de la Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Femenil, the “Amazons” of Nuevo Leon. The Tigers (their official club name) are a good club, currently fifth in the Liga MX Feminil, 9-4-4, 41GF, 14GA.

The Amazons/Tigers went through the Champions League group stage like a dose of salts; whipping MX rivals Monterrey 4-nil, Jamaican side Frazier’s Whip 7-1, and Costa Rican club Alajuelense 3-1.

That said, Tigres got perhaps the weakest of the groups (Fraziers were 0-3. 1GF, 17GA – and their only goal was against Tigres! – and Alajuelense went 1-2, 6GF, 7GA, and their only win was hapless Frazier’s) and played two of their three matches at home.

They’re at home tomorrow, too, and I’m sure they’d love to lay a beating on the visiting Norteamericanas. The Thorns website says the 7:30 kickoff is on Paramount+, ESPN+, and the Spanish language ESPN channel, Deportes, but my cable guide says it’s also on that odd “CBSSN” (CBS Sports Network) channel, so I’m not 100% sure.

I don’t have anything else to do, so I might just draw up a beer and a chair and see what happens.

But I’ll be sure to be back here in June. Sure, World Club Cups are fun, but The League is a whole ‘nother matter.