Thorns FC: Ungood and Unlucky

I’m still scratching my head after the dour 1-nil away loss to Seattle last Friday.

Right upfront let me say that the Thorns were not “good” at Lumen. The loss had a hell of a lot to do with squad issues we’ve seen way too often this season:

Ungood – Defensive Errors

Remember this?

Of course you do! It was from the Utah win barely over a week ago!

Here’s the thing; so did Laura Harvey. Because here’s the Reign attacking in the 4th minute:

Looks familiar, dunnit? Same problem a week later; Portland’s backline caught narrow and slow as an attacker – this time it’s rookie Maddie Dahlien instead of veteran nuisance Bianca St. Georges – skins Kaitlyn Torpey to the byline.

But Portland does a pretty good job tracking back, and actually forces Dahlien to turn back inside…

But here’s where the other Lumen issue comes in; Dahlien is pretty well marked, she’s only got maybe a step on Torpey and Sam Hiatt is blocking her direct shot at goal. Nerilia Mondesir is open for a square pass but that’s about all Dahlien has, so she puts a boot through the ball but…

Unlucky – Soft Goal

…it skins underneath Hiatt – instead of blocking the shot she just screens Bella Bixby – and tucks neatly inside Bixby’s far post, 1-nil and that’s all Seattle needed.

That’s not a goal probably 70% of the time. It bangs off Hiatt, or goes wide of the post, or Bixby stops it.

So while we weren’t good, we also…well, in the Army we used to say “if it wasn’t for shit luck we’d have no luck at all.”

The rest of the match was full of the same; a mashup of 1) Portland tactical and technical issues cleverly exploited by 2) Seattle tactical execution, and 3) pure shit-bad luck.

What’s most frustrating is that Laura Harvey didn’t have to be brilliant to out-coach Ken at Lumen. The issues were the same issues we’ve been seeing, including…

Ungood – Lack of Attacking Organization.

Here’s a perfect example, Portland chasing the game in the 70th minute starting with Jaden Perry hucking a long direct ball forward to Reilyn Turner.

Portland had to do a lot of this Route One because Harvey had set her midfielders Mondesir and Sam Meza to neutralize Sam Coffey and Hina Sugita and they did. She apparently openly admitted this to the broadcast team but it either never got back to Rob Gale or if it did he had no counter for it. We’ll discuss this more in the comments but Portland’s usually dangerous midfield duo was completely nerfed.

But this time the Route One worked nicely! Turner controlled and dropped to a charging Olivia Moultrie. But look at the screenshot above; Caiya Hanks is offside…but where’s the wingers? Who’s wide?

Nobody. So Moultrie has to dribble across the attacking third looking for a teammate. Who are stuck in the middle of the of the pitch and surrounded by white shirts as Seattle sets up a rolling block in front of their goal.

Finally Moultrie has to either try to run up the touchline (and Moultrie doesn’t have a winger’s pace, something Ken seems to either not know or not care, since he played her as the LM in his 4-1-4-1 at Lumen. Sigh.) or turn inside. She turns.

There’s STILL no width to the Thorns attack. I’m not sure that Gale actually understand what wing play is and what wingers do.

Moultrie can’t find an outlet and so spins back out wide.

There she finally finds some help wide; Reyna Reyes up from the back and Hanks along the Seattle backline.

But now Seattle has set their defense, their midfield has dropped into a low-mid block and Moultrie is pressed into making a lateral pass to Reyes who tries to go up to Hanks…

…who is also pressed and loses possession, attack over. The thing is that for all this attacking incoherence the Thorns were…

Unlucky – Missed Chances

…generating somewhere between 1 and 1-and-change xG:

The Thorns had the same problem at Lumen they’d had in Utah and, frankly, have had all season; finishing. Here’s FBRef’s shooting chart:

Nothing in the first half, all over the second – tell me you haven’t seen that movie before, too.

But between them Moultrie, Hanks, Turner and Pietra Tordin generated 0.87 xG and 0.73 post-shot xG. The squad was lit at the death, desperately chasing. This included five chances or half-chances in the final ten minutes and stoppage:
81′ – Marie Alidou hits Deyna Castellanos with a through ball that Castellanos lifts onto Turner’s boot to crash Seattle keeper Claudia Dickey, but Turner is offside
82′ – This time it’s Castellanos to Alidou but Alidou fires wide right.
84′ – Coffey lobs a long ball that Seattle’s Madison Curry flicks on to Hanks, but with only Dickey to beat Hanks misses wide right.
90+5′ – Alidou and Coeffry dispossess Dahlien and Coffey hits Hanks on the run; Hanks’ shot clanks off the crossbar with Dickey beaten for a Portland corner kick.
90+6′ – Coffey’s inswinger is nodded out to Turner; Turner’s pointblank blast rebounds off the crossbar to Tordin, but Tordin’s header is soft and right to Dickey.

Not a damn thing.

So…which was it? Bad or Unlucky?

I think not entirely “bad” but definitely “not very good”. Ken’s tactical setup, his confused and hobbled attack and his overlooked defensive issues, were the most problematic parts of the Lumen game. He got outcoached again, which is about as hard as two fifth-graders beating up on a kindergartener at recess.

The “unlucky” was mostly “not finding an equalizer”, but it’s worth nothing that Seattle could have added to their lead and didn’t. Former Thorn Ana-maria Crnogorcevic slammed a six-yard shot off Bixby’s near post with Bix rooted in the 86th minute.

This 75th minute attack could have been the dagger, too:

The play begins with Ji So-Yun at the top of the arch and three teammates in front of her. Emeri Adames is well-marked but Dahlien is wide open to her left and so is Jordyn Huitema to her right. Ji feeds Dahlien who crashes Portland’s goal…

…and she’s still got Huitema wide open back post because Reyes is caught upfield instead of here…

…where Reyes should be.

So Portland is lucky that 1) Dahlien shoots and 2) Bixby parries strongly away…

…and then Dahlien shot the rebound tamely back to Bixby.

Whatever the reasons, the result was another tough loss and a drop below the red line.

Short Passes

Per OPTA Portland had 75% completion of 436 passes. Seattle was rubbish; 69% of 370.

Possession was also tilted toward Portland 54% to 46%; the Sofascore possession graphic shows how sporadic Seattle possession was, too:

Because of the short rest I’m not going to wait for our “vaudevillian cane” blogger andre carlisle to post his Matchday 5 plots; here’s Sofascore’s player positions charts (starters on the left, subs on the right):

The first half/second half changes really jump out; Hanks is a genuine LW, Moultrie isn’t. Tordin is pushed up in her brief stint in a way that Turner wasn’t.

But the fucked-up jam in the center circle reappeared, as Harvey’s mob banjaxed Hina-san, Coffey, and Fleming, and then Alidou when she replaced Moultrie.

Here’s Seattle:

That weird double-echelon in the center circle is Harvey’s hit squad picking off the Thorns midfield. Ugly, but it worked, so…

Turnover and over.

Here’s how things are going;

Opponent (Result) – 2025	Turnovers
Kansas City – Away (L)	38
Angel City – Home (D)	38
North Carolina – Home (D)	32
Utah – Away (W)	25
Seattle – Away (L)	34

Right back in the shitter.

Eighteen turnovers in the first half, 16 in the second. Seattle gave away only 19; 13 in the first half, six in the second.

The Thorns’ Biggest Loser was Coffey with six. Fleming lost five, Hiatt and Hina-san coughed up four, and Linnehan turned over three. Four others lost two each.

Several of these were dangerous, including several of Hiatt’s and several from the usually reliable Coffey as well. Turnovers were definitely “not good” at Lumen.

press!

Second match tracking the effect of each side’s the press. I counted either a 1) turnover (either from a tackle-for-loss or a mishit forced pass), or a 2) forced retreat or drop-pass that killed off a progressive action, as a pressing “win”.

Here’s the results:

Match time	Reign presses (wins)(%)	Thorns presses (wins)(%)
0-15′	5(4) (80%)	8(4) (50%)
15-30′	8(5) (62.5%)	5(5) (100%)
30-45+3′	5(4) (80%)	2(1) (50%)
First half	18(13) (72.2%)	15(10) (66.6%)
45-60′	3(3) (100%)	3(2) (66%)
60-75′	2(0) (0%)	0(0) (0%)
75-90+4′	9(7) (77.7%)	3(3) (100%)
Second half	14(10) (71.4%)	6(5) (83.3%)
Match Total	32(23) (71.8%)	21(15) (71.4%)

My thoughts about this:
1) For the first half both teams pressed fairly lightly. Seattle was the better but not by much, and the press really slacked off from the end of the first half until the final quarter hour of the match as Seattle defended and Portland attacked desperately.
2) Both clubs were better pressing that the Thorns and Utah were, even though the scorelines were similar-ish.
3) The Thorns best pressers were Torpey (4.5), Fleming (4), and Moultrie (3). Both Hina-san (2) and Coffey (2) had off nights.
4) The Thorns most “victimized” by the Seattle press were Coffey (5) and Fleming (4).

It looks to me like the two sides were pretty even at press/counterpress. The match doesn’t look like it was decided in the pressing trenches.

Here’s the running tally:

Match (Result)	Opponent Press (Success)	Thorns Press (Success)
Utah Away (W)	28/12 (42.8%)	27/15 (55.5%)
Seattle Away (L)	32/23 (71.8%)	21/15 (71.4%)

We’ll keep tracking this.

Corner Kicks

Seven. Three in the first half, four in the second, six long, one short.

Time	Taker	Short/Long?	Result
20′	Coffey	Long	Dickey out to claim.
23′	Coffey	Long	Cleared over the byline for another corner.
24′	Coffey	Short	To Fleming, from there to Moultrie, whose lob was cleared.
64′	Moultrie	Long	Cleared, recycled, Linnehan’s shot was blocked to Hina-san, whose pass went astray.
67′	Moultrie	Long	Dickey made the terrific leaping grab shown below.

89′	Coffey	Long	Fleming fired way over
90+6′	Coffey	Long	This was the Turner crossbar/Tordin header we mentioned above.

Three chances, including a near-goal? That’s pretty decent, especially since Dickey was being a beast.

Player Ratings and Comments

Once again, I think the thing to note is not so much the differentials but the gross PMR numbers. There’s a LOT of single-digit ratings here, which means that the player struggled to impact the match at all. As we’ve discussed; some of that is KenBall, some was Laura Harvey having a good plan and making it work.

Turner (+3/-1 : +3/-3 : +6/-4) Had the 96th minute crossbar gone in? We’d be looking at Turner as Woman of the Match. As it is, lots of hard work for very little result. Again, part or much of this is Ken’s piss-poor attacking setup.

Moultrie (78′ – +5/-1 : +6/-0 : +11/-1) Solid match with the caveat that she’s not a LW and putting her there means that we see the narrow frontline that was so problematic in Seattle. Still working hard tracking back, which is good to see.

Alidou (12′ – +5/-1) Better this week! We’ll see if she grows into minutes if she gets more minutes.

Sugita (65′ – +0/-0 : +4/-0 : +4/-0) Mostly a victim of Harvey’s midfield scheme, but a shockingly poor outing from our normally reliable midfield engine.

Castellanos (25′ – +6/-2) Better than Sugita, which is kind of both shocking and gratifying after a string of poor outings from Castellanos. But we’ll see if this is really an improvement or just a blip; I’m not really convinced.

Fleming (+4/-2 : +4/-3 : +8/-5) Same problem as her teammates; Harvey, like the Cylons, had a plan, Ken didn’t, so Fleming battled both and lost.

Linnehan (65′ – +6/-2 : +0/-0 : +6/-2) Dangerous in the first half, then faded badly after the break. Linnehan seems only sporadically comfortable as a winger; sometimes the runs are there, but often they’re not. As with the other forwards, often seems lost in Ken’s gormless schemes.

Hanks (25′ – +5/-1) All sorts of good trouble…but without the finishing not enough.

I’m not sure if Hanks is starting quality. She started in Utah and looked utterly meh. As a sub in Seattle? Electricity! Maybe that’s the key to her. But needs 1) to finish, and 2) some better organization around her to use her good trouble to more advantage.

Coffey (+4/-0 : +3/-0 : +7/-0) See the Sugita comment above. Tough night.

Torpey (45′ – +3/-4) I’m not sure if Ken is telling her to tuck inside, or she’s doing it on her own. Either way, she lacks the pace to cover that open space out to the touchline, so she gets torched. I’m not ready to give up – quite – but she’s not had a truly solid match yet, so the clock should be ticking.

McKenzie (45′ – +3/-2) The problem is that Torpey’s replacement isn’t all that, either. The loss of Marie Muller is a real problem this organization hasn’t solved.

Hiatt (+1/-1 : +2/-2 : +3/-3) One of these minuses was the 86th minute post, where Hiatt was 1) ballwatching as AMC drifted in and 2) keeping AMC onside. That turned out not to be a problem because Seattle already had all the goals they needed, but…

So far I’m not really satisfied with Hiatt, either. The defensive issues aren’t largely individual, but the individual defenders aren’t killing it, either.

Perry (+0/-1 : +6/-2 : +6/-3) Probably the best of the backline…which is kind of damning with faint praise. Her second half pluses are mostly for long passing.

Reyes (83′ – +1/-1 : +4/-0 : +5/-1) More of the same; not awful, not great, and part of a unit that was found pretty wanting in Seattle, so…

Tordin (7′ – +1/-1) I keep reading all sorts of people who are wildly high on her, and my reaction is always (shrug emoji); how can you tell? She’s never got more than scrap minutes. Could she be good? Sure! Could be peaches, could be lunch meat. Right now? I don’t think we have any real idea.

Bixby (+2/-1 : +2/-1 : +4/-2) Second solid match in a row. Not really at fault on the concession, huge block on the 75th minute shot, and several well-timed forays out of her penalty area, a 19th minute clearance and the 97th minute tackle to prevent a Dahlien 1v0. I’m still hesitant to conclude that Bixby is Back…but she’s looked good so far.

Coach Ken: the usual mix of weird player assignments (Moultrie = winger, Alidou = false 9…) incoherent tactics, and flat-out errors like the narrow defense/wingless attack. The guy just isn’t ready for prime time.

Laura Harvey – Laura HARVEY! – smashed all the guy’s roses flat. That’s embarrassing.

Now we get Gotham on short rest. The Bats hammered ACFC flat 0-4 in LA, meaning that they were four goals better than the squad we noodled to a 1-1 draw.

I have a bad feeling about this.