2025 S-2 Briefings: The Bottom Five

The 2025 Portland Thorns season begins in roughly ten days, when the squad takes the field at the Great Carrot Festival against Seattle and we see the rough draft of Coach Ken’s plan for the coming year.

What’s he up against? It’s worth a brief look at the opposition to see what they’re going to bring to the dance this year.

This season, though, I’m not going to try and break down each squad in detail. Frankly, I’m not that knowledgeable about the opponents (there’s been a lot of changes around the league and it’s been a busy time for me so I haven’t been keeping up), my ability to guess of what Ken’s going to make of the Thorns is no better than random, and my predictions in the past have been as often far off as close to accurate.

So, instead, let’s just take snapshots of our opponents to see if we can get any idea what they might do.

But before we do, I’m gonna vent.

WTF, LEAGUE!!!!

We live in a digital age, right? At least that’s the reason I’m told every time I complain that every damn thing on my laptop has some useless fucking AI gimmick! We don’t do our research in libraries anymore, we go on the Internet!

So why, oh, why, is your website so fucking useless?

The current season information is sparse, which is lame, but now?

You don’t even HAVE prior season information! Nothing. Zip. Nada. No records, no stats, nothing.

You’re being outplayed by fucking Wikipedia!

We shouldn’t have to go to Sofascore or FBRef or OPTA to get NWSL stats. Your website should be a one-stop-shop for, well, everything! Heat maps, historic records, player bios, stats, trophies…everything.

To put up a website that lame? It’s like suiting up a rec league side in Orlando purple and trying to sell them to the public as Marta & Co. It’s not just weak, it’s embarrassing, and I wish to hell you’d hire someone who knows how to run a professional sports information portal. It can’t be that expensive.

Whew. Okay. Sorry, rant over.

So here’s how we’re going to do this.

I’m going to split these “S-2 Briefings” posts into thirds. This one will survey the bottom five clubs from 2024, starting with Houston, the Wooden Spoon. Then we’ll look at the middle four – Racing Louisville to The Damned Courage – and finally we’ll look at the top four finishers.

Houston Dash

What happened last season?
In 2024 Houston’s defending was…decent (they tended to give up shots – 25/26 per game – but Jane Campbell, right?, so they were solidly middle-of-the-pack on goals-to-xG) and I thought that Fran Alonso might figure out how to get goals out of Cece Kizer and Diana Ordonez and Yuki Nagasato to solve their dead-last GF problem and pull them up the table.

He didn’t. Ordonez nicked seven but nobody else came through, Houston finished 5-5-16, 14th of 14, 20GF, 42GA, GD-22. The Dash got as high as fourth on Matchday 3, then dropped like a paralyzed falcon and never came back. Alonso was canned October 1st.

Houston’s attack was slightly pacey – per OPTA their “direct speed” was 1.66 (compare that to the Kansas City racehorses 1.91) – and their “style” tended to be very middling, a bit faster than average and tended more towards build-up than direct…

…but while the finishing was a problem, the turnovers were a huge problem.

Houston’s possession issues are starkly exposed in their “sequence style” numbers: only 57 “10+ pass sequences” (second-worst in the league) leading to only 8 “build-up” attacks (second worst) and 15 “direct” attacks (third worst).

Bottom line? Houston was typically picked off or tackled for loss deep in their own half.

So a Dash possession usually ended well short of their opponent’s goal. And when they didn’t, Houston couldn’t convert. Kind of the Perfect Shitstorm, which is sort of the most Houston thing I can think of.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out – Tarciane (D) Courtney Peterson (D) Croix Soto (D) Andressa Alves (MF) Havana Solaun (MF) Cece Kizer (F), Fran Alonso (HC)
In – Christen Westphal (D), Danielle Colaprico (MF), Delanie Sheehan (MF/F), Messiah Bright (F), Yazmeen Ryan (F), Fabrice Gautrat (HC)

Thoughts?
Gautrat is pretty much a blank slate; Red Stars AC in 2022, Carolina AC in 2023. He’s got his hands full with this long-time-underperforming outfit, and that’s a big ask for a noob HC.

Players? Bright looked terrific in Orlando but was unhappy there, then underwhelmed in LA, and now I think she’s a “project”. Ryan should add some much-needed scoring. Tarciane was a tough loss; we’ll see if adding Westphal helps offset that. Campbell makes some bizarre decisions but in general is still a solid keeper. The rest we pretty much know.

Overall? I don’t see any roster changes that excite me unless Bright returns to her 2023 form and Ryan has a breakout season and Gautrat turns out to be a genius-level gaffer.

Prediction?
Below the red line struggler. Last again? Maybe, but if not very likely no better than somewhere in the 10th-or-below level. I don’t see anything that suggests Houston will be significantly better than they have been…well, forever.

Can we beat them?
We did twice last season, but…that was the six-win KenBounce, so it’s dicey to predict on. Still…this club was a hot mess last season and doesn’t look much better now. So, yes.

Seattle Reign

What happened last season?
I figured Seattle would rule or ruin: “Everybody is in form and Harvey drives them like a harness team? They could be top-three. Half the squad is all to pieces and Harvey is baffled? Could be bottom-three.”

It was bottom three: Seattle lost five of the first six, nine of the first twelve, finished 13th of 14, going 6-5-15, 27GF, 44GA, GD-17. Shockingly for a Laura Harvey team the defending was often a shambles (opponent “goal creating actions) 2.77 per 90min, second worst in the league) at a time when Dickey’s success against the shot improved (from -0.46 in 2023 to -0.03).

Significant changes from 2024?
Out – Quinn (MF), Jaelin Howell (MF), Tziarra King (FW), Bethany Balcer (FW)
In – Madison Curry (DF), Lynn (Williams) Biyendolo

Thoughts?
Harvey teams are…not usually fun to watch. When she has the horses they’re efficient in a grinding sort of way. Here they were in 2024, slow as a day without bread:

In 2024 they weren’t efficient in front of goal, though; all the big guns under-performed. Seattle’s xG ratio was 0.25, second-best in the league, but top three scorers’ non-penalty goals compared to xG ran from King (2G on 3.5xG, -1.5 per 90 minutes) through Balcer (3G on 4.8, -1.8) to Huitema (3G on 5.4xG, -2.4). So-Yun was perhaps the “best of the rest” with 3G on 3.4xG, -0.04, but the combination of inefficiency in front of goal and porousness in back led to the worst finish since 2013.

Given Harvey, whose style hasn’t changed in over a decade, I don’t see this squad making big shocking tactical changes in 2025, so the big “ifs” are whether Lynn-Formerly-Williams can help jump-start the attack and whether the defense can remain “decent” or improve.

Prediction?
Distribution tends to equalize, so I’m going to guess Huitema will have a better season this year. But…even if she’d been spot-on her xG that’s only 5 goals, and Williams knocked in only 4 in ten games for Gotham last season, so she’s unlikely to contribute more than Balcer did…

So…lower half of the table, possibly but probably not below Houston, but this outfit will need big luck to get anywhere playoff-adjacent.

Can we beat them?
We drew them at the Clink last season, so only four points from six on offer. I’m going to guess that this year, again. Win and a draw, but that says more about me KenFeelings than it does Seattle.

Angel City FC

What happened last season?
What didn’t! The Angels staggered up and down the bottom of the table, from a low of 14th on Matchday 3 to 7th on Matchday 5 then between 9th and 12th, which is where they ended up, 7-6-13, 29GF, 42GA, -13GD, on the final matchday. Christen Press, Jun Endo, and Ali Riley were all out with knee injuries all season. The club was fined and docked three points for unspecified salary cap violations.

It’s hard to find any single reason for ACFC’s troubles. Their style was, well, either “very balanced” or “utterly meh” depending on how you looked at it:

Neither pacey nor slow, neither exceptionally direct or exclusively possession-based, the squad “goal creating actions” were perfectly mediocre, 1.92/90min, their “goals to xG” (-0.28/90min) likewise right near the league mean…ACFC’s attack was sort of “unsatisfactory but passing” but more “unsat” than “sat”.

The defending? Not good. Though the shots-against numbers are fairly average (22/90min) the “goal-creating-actions-against” numbers were bad, like “worst in the league” bad and Didi Haracic imploded; her goals-to-xG per 90min was -0.14, also the worst in the league.

That got head coach Becky Tweed canned. And GM Angela Huckles Mangano fired. A slew of players left the club, as the organization tried to get out from under a very disappointing season.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out – Didi Haracic (GK), Madison Curry (D), Jasmyne Spenser (D), Meggie Dougherty Howard (MF), Raquel Rodriguez (MF), Messiah Bright (F), Katie Johnson (F), Becky Tweed (HC)
In – Hannah Stambaugh (GK), Savy King (D), Miyabi Moriya (D), Alanna Kennedy (D), Julie Dufor (F), Sam Laity (interim HC)

And I should note that amongst the arrivals is former Thorns gaffer Mark Parsons as Director of Sporting Operations, i.e. general manager.

Thoughts?
You can’t say that the Angels didn’t do anything about their problems. Exactly what they’ve done, well…

In goal Stambaugh is a complete blank; 24 matches for Kobe Lionessa and Omiya Ardija Ventus between 2018 and 2024, no stats. Could be peaches…

I do like the additions to the backline; King is a defense-first young FB, Kennedy should hold down CB as well as providing veteran sturdiness, and Moriya should help out as a WB/FB. Katie Zelem, who arrived last August, looks like adding some spine at DM.

Dufor is a winger who can score…but with Endo still rehabbing a lot is riding on old heads like Press and Leroux and Claire Emslie (and the kids like Alyssa Thompson and Casey Phair) coming up big.

For me the really big question is Big Sam Laity.

No, no, not the “who ate all the pies?” question; it’s him, it’s obviously him.

But whether he can make something out of this bash-to-fit-file-to-hide-paint-to-cover outfit. He was a trashfire in Houston, but that fetid petro-swamp has always been a trashfire, so it’s hard to tell how much of the flame was Big Sam and how much was Houston. Let’s say I’m not real confident it wasn’t him.

Which, in turn, makes me wonder how long a leash he’s got in LA.

It’s no secret that one of my big concerns with hiring Mark Parsons as GM here is that I’m thoroughly unconvinced he’ll stay in his lane. I think he hasn’t abandoned his coaching ambitions…so I think Big Sam is on borrowed time. If he doesn’t turn the Angels around most quick smart, well…

Prediction?
Color me optimistic, but I think this club will improve this season. I’m not talking top four, but solid mid-table? Sure! Sixth, seventh…which, since eight of fourteen go to the postseason, means playoffs.

But there’s a lot of moving parts here, and any one of them – the veteran forwards suddenly age out, Stambaugh is a hot mess, Big Sam is clueless and the squad doesn’t mesh – could blow up the season, so I say that with a lot less confidence than I did Houston and Seattle.

Can we beat them?
Like another bottom feeder, Seattle, only once-and-a-half, four points…but that was a very different ACFC. The matches are going to depend a lot on whether Ken & Co. can be better than 2024, and, like ACFC, that’s far from a given. I’m going to have to throw up my hands on this one.

Utah Royals

What happened last season?
The expansion club didn’t just stumble out the gate in it’s first season. It faceplanted; 1-1-9 and HC Amy Rodriguez got fired. AC Jimmy Coenraets took over and went 6-3-6, finishing 11th. This despite a roster that included Amandine Henry, young stars like Ally Sentor and Brecken Mozingo, steady veterans like Katie Riehl and Kate del Fava, keeper Mandy Haught, and even former Thorns fan favorites Iffy Onumonu, Hannah Betfort and Madison Pogarch.

Frankly, A-Rod got a raw deal; rookie coach handed a brand-new expansion squad that took time to gel. But them’s the breaks. It’s a cruel game.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out – Betfort moved on to The Damned, but that’s hardly “significant”. Nobody, really.
In – Tatum Milazzo (D), Alex Loera (MF), Aisha Solorzano (F)

Thoughts?
The club that emerged from 2024 had some genuine strongpoints. Mandy McGlynn is an excellent keeper; despite a pretty porous backline (post-shot xG against 1.81/90min – second worst in the league) McGlynn saved the Royals about a goal every three games (G to xG +0.27/90min).

This is a fairly slow club – OPTA’s “direct speed” number (1.65) was third-slowest in 2024 – but they solved that by hucking it upfield:

The Royals kind of “scored by committee” last season. Their high scorer was forward Cloe Lacasse with four…but three of those came in a single match. Sentor had three but went cold late in the season, and nobody else had more then two (four people had two..!). Unsurprisingly Utah got blanked a lot; shut out 11 times.

Solorzano – who if you remember the Bad Bitches was the only bright spot for Tijuana – should add some scoring punch, but…LigaMX Feminil. It’s hard to tell whether she’s that good or her opponents were that bad.

So can this mob-handed lot start scoring? Can they put the hammer to opposing shooters? If they can McGlynn can carry them a ways herownself. If so…

Prediction?
Honestly, I don’t think this club made enough moves to really improve. BUT…I really like young Sentor, and Solorzano might be a spark. They have terrific goalkeeping. So I’m going to guess a skosh better; 9th instead of 11th. If they slide into the playoffs in 8th? I’ll buy them some sort of Mormon-approved non-caffeinated non-alcoholic non-drink.

Can we beat them?
Like beating the Angels, it’s going to depend on Ken more than the Sisterwives’ improvement. If we have our shit together? Absodamnlutely. If not? Well, we only took a single point off them last season.

San Diego Wave

What happened last season?
The Wave was the Golden Expansion Team Child when they debuted in 2022. They played brutally ugly defend-and-counter StoneyBall but it worked to get them to the semfinals two years in a row.

Last season? The fucking wheels came off.

The Wave was 3-6-5 (12GF, 14GA) on June 24 when Casey Stoney was canned. The club then ran through two interim gaffers, including Landon “Landycakes” Donovan, going 3-1-8 (12GF, 24GA), proving pretty thoroughly that the San Diego FO had completely mistaken the reason for the early-season problems with the club.

Unsurprisingly a club with Naomi Girma in the backline and Kailen Sheridan between the sticks was semi-decent defensively; still not in the top half but better than their record – “opponent goals created actions per 90min” was 2.0, 9th of 14, and “opponent shots on target per 90min” was 6th of 14, and Sheridan was +0.25/90min, so saving a goal every four games.

But up front? Ugh. Wave attackers were third from bottom in “goal creating actions”, and their goals-to-xG was -0.40/90min, 24 goals on an xG of 35.6, dead last. The Wave tended to try and build up, but the finish wasn’t there.

Jaedyn Shaw was the squad leader with four goals, Makenzie Doniak had three, four players had two, and nobody else had more than one apiece.

The “possession” diagram makes it look like the club was playing StoneyBall with and without Stoney:

Sitting deep – those are the blue squares in the defensive half – giving up space in the defensive corners – while bombing up the other way to huck in crosses from the attacking corners. That’s StoneyBall and it got the Wave to the playoffs for two years. But last season it just stopped working.

And that’s not even bringing up the whole “hostile work environment” lawsuit thing.

Significant changes from 2024?
Out – Naomi Girma (D), Christen Westphal (D), Jaedyn Shaw (F), Alex Morgan (F)
In – Didi Haracic (GK), Sintia Cabezas (D), Favor Emmanuel (MF), Gia Corley (MF/F), Chiamaka Okwuchukwu (F), Jonas Eidevall (HC)

Thoughts?
There will always be times when the externals suggest that things aren’t going right inside. We’ll talk about that some more when we get to Gotham. But the San Diego situation seems to scream bloody murder. The Stoney firing and the interim cluster that followed, the Girma move, the lawsuits…it seems like there was something really, really not going right in San Diego.

The real unknown is whether that’s been repaired, and the toxicity purged.

Eidevall has a good reputation from his time in Sweden and Arsenal. His Wiki page says he likes a “high-paced possession game”, which is the opposite of StoneyBall, so the past is not likely to be a good prediction for San Diego’s 2025.

Obviously a player of Girma’s quality is irreplaceable, so that’s a big hole to fill. Sheridan is still solid (which makes me question Haracic, who was dire last season). There are some pieces I think will do fine (Lundkvist, McNabb, Sanchez) while others are questionable (McCaskill). The real unknown is how the newcomers like Cabezas, Emmanuel, and Okwuchukwu will do, and whether Eidevall can meld the squad to remake the defend-and-counter Wave into his preferred pacey possession side.

Prediction?
Really hard to say. The core left here is replacement-grade, many of the new faces are unknowns, the club culture sounds like it was pretty dire. It’s almost as though the first three seasons are gone and forgotten and the club is starting over from scratch.

But with that…I’m not really taken with this squad. I think they have a decent head coach, but I think it’s going to take more than one offseason to clean up the post-Ellis mess here. I’m thinking 10th.

Can we beat them?
In 2024 we traded home wins with the Wave. So only half the time but that was when both clubs were struggling, Now? I’m gonna say “Thorns win plus draw”.

Next: The Mushy Middle